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COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]


sveumrules
I would agree that if 20% of people developed a noticeable fever after a vaccine that would be very problematic. Regrettably as the recent news around the approval of convalescent plasma swirls my confidence that we will get clear communication on the side effects dwindles. I hate to type that. But it is too important to long term public confidence to be anything other than honest upfront if we are approving a less than ideal vaccine. Compared to most other diseases we don't necessarily need anywhere near the compliance rate we'd typically want to make a big impact.
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The University of Arizona’s wastewater testing system alerted university officials to COVID-19 cases in an on-campus dorm this week. On Tuesday, the wastewater testing system at Likins Hall alerted the university that students or staff in the dorm may be positive for COVID-19. UA President Robert Robbins said during his weekly briefing that a team immediately went to the dorm and tested every resident and staff member.

 

"We did test — I think there are 311 individuals in that dorm — and we did the antigen test, we did them all [Wednesday] and found two positive cases,” Robbins explained.

 

Two asymptomatic students tested positive for the virus and were immediately sent to the quarantine dorm.

 

“We in fact found cases that no one would have known about and now we’re contact tracing all of their contacts to find out how many other students may be positive and asymptomatic,” said Robbins.

 

https://news.azpm.org/p/coronavirus/2020/8/27/179250-ua-wastewater-testing-finds-covid-19-cases-in-dorm/

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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That Arizona story is good stuff, well done science.

 

The $5 at home test that was approved recently should also be huge progress. Of course $5 and not reusable isn't the dream type one I've mentioned here a few times. But it's big progress and one that could make a big help. Sports teams with tons of money this should be a huge help for them to be able to play on. I think they were also used in that Arizona wastewater find.

 

As a society in general though. If our people in charge could actually work together instead of fighting, if you got one of these out to everyone, or maybe two to test back to back days. And everyone did it and then quarantined themselves if posiitve we'd pretty much have this nipped in the bud. If only we had a portion of the government responsible for delivering things to the population's homes, oh wait we do but we're trying to gut it for politics.

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That Arizona story is good stuff, well done science.

 

The $5 at home test that was approved recently should also be huge progress. Of course $5 and not reusable isn't the dream type one I've mentioned here a few times. But it's big progress and one that could make a big help. Sports teams with tons of money this should be a huge help for them to be able to play on. I think they were also used in that Arizona wastewater find.

 

As a society in general though. If our people in charge could actually work together instead of fighting, if you got one of these out to everyone, or maybe two to test back to back days. And everyone did it and then quarantined themselves if posiitve we'd pretty much have this nipped in the bud. If only we had a portion of the government responsible for delivering things to the population's homes, oh wait we do but we're trying to gut it for politics.

 

What about people traveling into our country?

 

How would we nip them in the bud?

 

Flying into the country, take a test to board the plane.

 

Driving into the country from North or South of the border, take a test before being allowed to cross.

 

Entering the country illegally, no test, just enter the country and infect as many people as you come in contact with I guess... This would be the one that would stop us from nipping anything in the bud.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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That Arizona story is good stuff, well done science.

 

The $5 at home test that was approved recently should also be huge progress. Of course $5 and not reusable isn't the dream type one I've mentioned here a few times. But it's big progress and one that could make a big help. Sports teams with tons of money this should be a huge help for them to be able to play on. I think they were also used in that Arizona wastewater find.

 

As a society in general though. If our people in charge could actually work together instead of fighting, if you got one of these out to everyone, or maybe two to test back to back days. And everyone did it and then quarantined themselves if posiitve we'd pretty much have this nipped in the bud. If only we had a portion of the government responsible for delivering things to the population's homes, oh wait we do but we're trying to gut it for politics.

 

What about people traveling into our country?

 

How would we nip them in the bud?

 

Flying into the country, take a test to board the plane.

 

Driving into the country from North or South of the border, take a test before being allowed to cross.

 

Entering the country illegally, no test, just enter the country and infect as many people as you come in contact with I guess... This would be the one that would stop us from nipping anything in the bud.

 

Maybe not the best idiom as you're not going to get it to 0. If you did a mass test of the whole country like that it would gut the numbers huge in under 3 weeks. It's essentially what the NBA bubble did. You'd then be down to a manageable number to start from, like the rest of the civilized world did by actually listening to science. If you're trying to make some blame on this to mexicans, well lets say I think it's misguided.

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10% done with the school year and things are going well so far. High school students and teachers all impressed with it. I’m guessing it’s much harder for the elementary kids though.

 

You doing a hybrid model with the upper levels? All levels?

 

Kids start Tuesday and majority of the teachers are anticipating 2 weeks face to face at the lower levels before going virtual/hybrid.

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10% done with the school year and things are going well so far. High school students and teachers all impressed with it. I’m guessing it’s much harder for the elementary kids though.

 

You doing a hybrid model with the upper levels? All levels?

 

Kids start Tuesday and majority of the teachers are anticipating 2 weeks face to face at the lower levels before going virtual/hybrid.

 

No, we're online-only until--at earliest--early-to-mid October. That's for k-12 in my district. We do have a few classrooms on 3-4 campuses with limited students.

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That Arizona story is good stuff, well done science.

 

The $5 at home test that was approved recently should also be huge progress. Of course $5 and not reusable isn't the dream type one I've mentioned here a few times. But it's big progress and one that could make a big help. Sports teams with tons of money this should be a huge help for them to be able to play on. I think they were also used in that Arizona wastewater find.

 

As a society in general though. If our people in charge could actually work together instead of fighting, if you got one of these out to everyone, or maybe two to test back to back days. And everyone did it and then quarantined themselves if posiitve we'd pretty much have this nipped in the bud. If only we had a portion of the government responsible for delivering things to the population's homes, oh wait we do but we're trying to gut it for politics.

 

What about people traveling into our country?

 

How would we nip them in the bud?

 

Flying into the country, take a test to board the plane.

 

Driving into the country from North or South of the border, take a test before being allowed to cross.

 

Entering the country illegally, no test, just enter the country and infect as many people as you come in contact with I guess... This would be the one that would stop us from nipping anything in the bud.

 

Maybe not the best idiom as you're not going to get it to 0. If you did a mass test of the whole country like that it would gut the numbers huge in under 3 weeks. It's essentially what the NBA bubble did. You'd then be down to a manageable number to start from, like the rest of the civilized world did by actually listening to science. If you're trying to make some blame on this to mexicans, well lets say I think it's misguided.

 

Not blaming the Mexicans, just one way to get into the country without being tested is all...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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10% done with the school year and things are going well so far. High school students and teachers all impressed with it. I’m guessing it’s much harder for the elementary kids' parents though.

 

Fixed. :)

 

Online school is really hard for the elementary students that need much more hands-on learning. But I know my wife is struggling to manage our younger kids class load too and she is a stay-at-home mom (even back when none of us stayed at home). I really feel for the families where both parents are working and dealing with their kids at home. Especially teachers who have to be at school for their class and still have their kids doing school at home. Rough school year this year...

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10% done with the school year and things are going well so far. High school students and teachers all impressed with it. I’m guessing it’s much harder for the elementary kids' parents though.

 

Fixed. :)

 

Online school is really hard for the elementary students that need much more hands-on learning. But I know my wife is struggling to manage our younger kids class load too and she is a stay-at-home mom (even back when none of us stayed at home). I really feel for the families where both parents are working and dealing with their kids at home. Especially teachers who have to be at school for their class and still have their kids doing school at home. Rough school year this year...

 

Just a quick question....remember when bag boys were deemed essential workers and got hazard pay? What about the teachers?

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Day 2 of in person school was challenging for me, but the students have been doing fine. Our building has no ac, so inwas sweating it up. Probably need to shave... The hardest part I've notice is teaching reading skills like phonics. The kids are having a hard time hearing the correct aounds and cant see my mouth moving while forming sounds and blendz.
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It's gone better than I could have expected after 2 days. I was worried about the reality of what school is now clashing with what it was last year. but my first grader said it was 'the best day ever' after day 1 and when we had a chat about the possibility of things closing again, he burst into tears at the thought of not being in his new class. It's up to the Gods. The school has done a remarkable job keeping everyone apart in the building and at drop-off/pickup. It won't be their fault if something happens. I've sensed nothing but enthusiasm and a willingness to make it work from the school staff.
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It's gone better than I could have expected after 2 days. I was worried about the reality of what school is now clashing with what it was last year. but my first grader said it was 'the best day ever' after day 1 and when we had a chat about the possibility of things closing again, he burst into tears at the thought of not being in his new class. It's up to the Gods. The school has done a remarkable job keeping everyone apart in the building and at drop-off/pickup. It won't be their fault if something happens. I've sensed nothing but enthusiasm and a willingness to make it work from the school staff.

 

Our school has been great in this aspect as well. All the grades line up outside and enter at different doors. Hallways are used at different times(mostly) and parts of the building are used differently. PE is all outside with art and music come to the classroom and going outside when possible. The hardest part for the kiddos is recess. It is only with their class and they only get part of the playground area. Masks have been fine and the biggest offenders are when the masks are too big and fall below the nose and they kind of forget that it happened. I think parents are slightly annoyed with the drop off/pick up as we dont allow kids at school until right before the morning bell and drop off they need to wait at their number if their parents are picking them up. Overall it has been good though, and you are correct...it won't be their fault if something does happen.

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A friend who is a school consular told me last night that things are going well for her school. The young kids are, she said, the best with regards to masking. They know it's the rule and so they just accept it. Teachers and kids seem to be doing their best to make things workable. They don't want to go back to full time virtual school. There will, no doubt, be slip ups along the way - but let's hope they are minimal.

 

To all the teachers and workers at the school - thanks very much. If we can pull this off, it will be great for everyone.

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The first day of high school was Tuesday here. A junior was Covid positive. The dumb parents sent their child to school knowing she had symptoms of Covid and had a test the prior week. The test results came back Tuesday morning when the child was in class. She was quickly pulled out. These stupid parents should have to pay for all the time to screw around with where that child was in school and who she came in contact with.
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That was an expensive Smashmouth concert:

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

 

"We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion"

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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That was an expensive Smashmouth concert:

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

 

"We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion"

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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The number of patients complaining of coughs and respiratory illnesses surged at a sprawling Los Angeles medical system from late December through February, raising questions about whether the novel coronavirus was spreading earlier than thought, according to a study of electronic medical records.

 

The authors of the report, published Thursday in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, suggested that coronavirus infections may have caused this rise weeks before U.S. officials began warning the public about an outbreak. But the researchers cautioned that the results cannot prove that the pathogen reached California so soon, and other disease trackers expressed skepticism that the findings signaled an early arrival.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/09/10/los-angeles-patients-covid-coughing/

 

I'm not going to say that this definitively proves corona was here in December but there have certainly been enough studies that have found some evidence that it probably left China well before what has generally been accepted. The article also mentions that they found traces of coronavirus in sewage in Italy from December and retested a nasal swab of a man in Paris from December 27 that also had coronavirus. Really at this point, all of this information is purely trivial. Personally, I hope it ends all the "why didn't we do anything sooner" complaining because by the time anyone even knew about this thing it was too late. The world is so interconnected that it certainly spread around the globe within a week or so of patient zero and there was nothing anyone could do to stop it.

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That was an expensive Smashmouth concert:

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

 

"We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion"

 

I'm no fan of Smashmouth either, but I hope people take results of this discussion paper for what they are worth in terms of researching viral spread - which is a grain of salt. It reeks of largely being drafted a few months ago with predetermined results by people that I'd wager arent Sturgis regulars once they found out the rally was going to happen. Then they barely waited two weeks after it ended to get a decent estimate of the number of rallygoers attending before filling in the numeric blanks and getting it published by a labor economics think tank. What I think is most scary is how many sites and news outlets ran with it immediately for click bait like it was gospel.

 

https://slate.com/technology/2020/09/sturgis-rally-covid19-explosion-paper.html

 

Purely from a public health standpoint, Sturgis 2020 was a bad idea (not nearly to the tune of $12b dollars and hundreds of thousands of covid cases, though)...then again i think having half a million bikers from all over the country ride to the same place at the same time in any year without a pandemic is a bad idea for public health. However, pinning ~20% of US covid cases over the past month or so solely on a motorcycle rally isn't science nearly as much as it is weak statistical analysis and modeling to satisfy blatant confirmation bias.

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