COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The classic argument from authority once you can't defend your position.

 

My point was that this isn't some fringe looney thought I had, it's been published a ton and has very respectable folks on its side. The vaccine is doing precisely what it should have done, stave off death and not always prevent cases.

 

I'd be $10k that if you walked down the street and asked 100 people, 80 would say deaths are surging. Which is of course false, but people only know about the cases surging. Odd, huh?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

Interpretive Summary for July 30, 2021

.

 

COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are once again increasing in nearly all states, fueled by the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is much more contagious than past versions of the virus.

 

Now, about that $10K...

 

 

I didn't bet that deaths aren't increasing. I said if you asked people on the street if deaths are surging, they would think that they are, when no, they are not.

 

Look at a Covid death chart. It stands to reason that if cases rise, deaths will rise, but hospitalizations and deaths are both low and stable and fewer people who get Covid are dying. If you have a vaccine, that risk is almost nonexistent.

 

Can we stop being intentionally obtuse?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The classic argument from authority once you can't defend your position.

 

My point was that this isn't some fringe looney thought I had, it's been published a ton and has very respectable folks on its side. The vaccine is doing precisely what it should have done, stave off death and not always prevent cases.

 

I'd be $10k that if you walked down the street and asked 100 people, 80 would say deaths are surging. Which is of course false, but people only know about the cases surging. Odd, huh?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

Interpretive Summary for July 30, 2021

 

COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are once again increasing in nearly all states, fueled by the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is much more contagious than past versions of the virus.

 

Now, about that $10K...

 

Increasing relative to what? Relative to moderate variance from week to week, or relative to peak COVID-19?

 

The highest daily death average in a rolling 7 day period in July while Delta has been raging has been 360 deaths/day. The highest daily average in a rolling 7 day period in January of this year was 3,352 deaths per day.

 

The "cases surging" parrot doesn't care about context. Just be afraid. You absolutely never see these data reported in mainstream media with any context that puts it in perspective. It's the same fixation on "surging cases" repeatedly and it never changes. That it's 1/10 of peak death isn't even mentioned.

 

And again, no, Covid deaths are not surging.

[igor67]

Dhonks, turborickey, and I (and any other teachers I can't think of right now) care about a lot more than deaths. A run of the mill 2 week bout with normal covid already gets students past the halfway point to the number of absences from school that increase the risk of failing a grade. In a year when all of us are going to be trying to make-up lost ground from last year students might be even more sensitive to absences than normal. Delta is affecting younger persons much more harshly than prior variants, so cases are a concern before we even get into the fact that deaths are going back-up, some states hospitals are being overwhelmed again, and more cases is more risk for yet another variant. And the earlier research on Long Covid showed both mild and severe cases were at risk for developing it, so more cases is bad on that front.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd like a source on delta being significantly worse for kids as I haven't seen anything other than the sort of "doctors say they are concerned how it affects kids" sort of thing. In fact the only study-ish bits I've see say there is still extremely low risk of serious illness in school-aged kids delta or not, or that they have no real concrete data on how it affects them as it's so new. So, yeah, I'm challenging the statement that's it's affecting young people "much more harshly" without defining young people or "harshly."

 

What is an overwhelmed hospital by the way? This is another BS line the news trots out every other day without context as to what capacity a hospital is normally operating at. They'd have you believe hospitals sit half empty most of the time. Telling me that an ICU is at 87% capacity doesn't say anything without saying what it was at last month or last year. And this is how they frame it basically every single article. "Jefferson hospital is at 90% capacity." Followed by a quote from a doctor that says "I am concerned. This isn't good."

 

But let's say it is, what would you like to see done? You can make this out to be the worst thing ever, a surging crisis or whatever you want to call it, and then what?

 

What is the solve? Other than a vaccine for kids 2+ which I last read is a hope for this fall, this is a hamster wheel. Closing school again isn't a solution, empty arenas and restaurants are not a solution. It's been 2 years. When does it stop? When the virus reaches 0? There are going to be "cases" for a long time.

 

A fully vaccinated population isn't ever happening. I'll be surprised if more than 60% of the US ever gets the vaccine. So where do you go from there? Do some of you actually want to see a 5 year mask mandate or something? I'm genuinely wondering how long you anticipate caring about this? At what point do you just accept it as part of the world and move on and realize that half-hearted distancing (that most people ignore as soon as school/whatever ends) and masks at AmFam actually worn for about 3% of the game don't actually do anything?

[reillymcshane]

My wife's health care system has gone from zero COVID cases to 30+ in two weeks. And they had their first couple of deaths in ages this past week. Every hospitalized person has not been vaccinated. They are expecting numbers to grow. How much is the key. Cases are getting younger - like by 10 years. So it's definitely hitting younger people in their sample group.

 

Tough thing is for staff who thought they were past this. I met some people who worked through all this. Some of their stories are heartbreaking. The hard part now is they feel most of these cases are avoidable.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Isn't it entirely possible that cases are getting younger because older people are among those most encouraged by the government but also their own friends and family to get vaccinated? And unless 6 year olds are getting hospitalized that doesn't say anything as to delta being harsh on kids, which I looked up again and found nothing to support that, just a bunch of pediatricians reassuring people that school is safe and that delta doesn't really like kids either.

 

Again though, I don't think the vaccination rate is going to take a significant jump outside of some kids under 12 getting it when they can. You've had plenty of time to get it by now and the rate generally is pretty close to the % of Americans who said they don't like vaccines even before Covid was a thing. They're not going to get the shot. And mandates won't do anything because those who oblige are the ones who got the shot.

 

IMO the options here are to get on with your life or the government rounding up people and forcing shots in their arms. I don't understand how anyone who's lived through this can see this another way, at least for America. I really don't understand what path out of this some of you guys see. There are millions dead and you've had a vaccine for like 9 months. They're not gonna change course and get it now.

[LouisEly]

The "cases surging" parrot doesn't care about context. Just be afraid. You absolutely never see these data reported in mainstream media with any context that puts it in perspective. It's the same fixation on "surging cases" repeatedly and it never changes. That it's 1/10 of peak death isn't even mentioned.

 

And again, no, Covid deaths are not surging.

On July 10th, there were 127 deaths and the 7-day moving average of deaths was 170. On July 30th - 20 days later - the 7-day moving average was 308 with 451 deaths reported that day.

 

1) Are you telling me that those 451 people are nothing to care about? What if one of them was one of your loved ones? 451 per day is over 160k per year, 4x the number of people in the US who die in vehicle accidents (how's that for context?). 160k deaths per year is nothing to be concerned about? That's not "surging"?

 

B) What about the people who are immunocompromised, such as those undergoing chemotherapy, organ transplant patients, and other immuno-compromising conditions for whom the vaccines aren't as effective? Are you telling me those people are nothing to care about?

 

Yeah, it's a lot less deaths than back in December/January. But it's a lot more than it should be, and there are a lot of people who, despite being vaccinated, are still at risk and can do nothing about it.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm out when you start virtue signaling to make an argument. "Are you telling me they don't matter?!" Yawn. The second you do that, there is no path out besides being a terrible person. It's a very poor way to make a point. There has to be a death count that is "acceptable" yet if I use your philosophy here I can make the argument when one person dies that it's too much and the world should close and if you don't agree then you obviously don't care about that one person. So that number exists somewhere, whether it's 50 or 100 or 3000.

 

Again, I ask, what is the solve for this supposed surge?

 

This has to be a world record for moving a goal post. Flatten the curve, wait for the vaccine, this is our shot. Ok, we did all that stuff. The curve is literally a blip from its peak. If that's not good enough for life to go on, it never will be.

[DHonks]

Nobody should even care about cases rising. It's out in the open that cases rising is a nearly useless measure especially considering vaccinated people get "cases" and essentially never get sick or die. We should only care about "flattening the death curve" and not over-running hospitals. Hospitalizations and deaths should be the only thing in the news. But of course CNN can't stop itself from yelling about cases surging every 3 hours. Who cares. Everyone would better to stop obsessing about it.

 

In fairness I know two vaccinated folks that have significantly worse symptoms now than I had it pre-vaccine in December. They’re not hospitalization sick, but still not getting better after a week.

[DHonks]

There's 30-40% of the population who is never getting vaccinated under any circumstances. There is no 100% vaccinated America and no zero Covid ever happening.

 

And I don’t get this. We solved polio. We solved measles, whooping cough, mumps, etc. Then a bunch of discredited docs wrote books questioning vaccines and we now have parts of the country with lower vaccination rates than third world countries. My generation never saw the horrors of those sicknesses because they were eradicated when we grew up, but we were all vaccinated. now those are on the rise because we aren’t learning from history

[igor67]

Point of clarification the article I had seen indicated that younger people were more likely to be symptomatic with delta (which could be called more serious), but wasn't definitive on whether or not severe disease was more likely. I wasn't able to track it down again. But I did find this one on the prevalence of Long Covid in youth which I tend to worry about the most since I've already seen it torpedo an honor student.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01935-7

 

We don't have to get to 100% for it to fade into the background, I'm not thrilled about having to teach with a mask on again this fall, but since I'm going to be in a building with a large currently unvaccinateable population I get it. Certainly the case rates in higher vaccine areas provide reason for some optimism that we are in the range where every shot does help. And many regions are again seeing some increasing rates of vaccination after tapering off dramatically.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There's 30-40% of the population who is never getting vaccinated under any circumstances. There is no 100% vaccinated America and no zero Covid ever happening.

 

And I don’t get this. We solved polio. We solved measles, whooping cough, mumps, etc. Then a bunch of discredited docs wrote books questioning vaccines and we now have parts of the country with lower vaccination rates than third world countries. My generation never saw the horrors of those sicknesses because they were eradicated when we grew up, but we were all vaccinated. now those are on the rise because we aren’t learning from history

 

1. Pre-existing anti-vaccine sentiment that had been steadily gaining popularity even before Covid.

2. Social media/propaganda websites that present as legitimate news, freely spreading false information without repercussions for the last 15 or so years. Unpopular opinion possibly but the Internet has changed the game and the First Amendment is in dire need of revisiting.

3. Legitimate public distrust of the news, which constantly sells one apocalyptic crisis after another without ever seeing these things come to fruition.

4. Politicizing virus prevention like we do with almost everything, pitting one side against the other. If you do this or that, you are "one of them."

[homer]

What is an overwhelmed hospital by the way? This is another BS line the news trots out every other day without context as to what capacity a hospital is normally operating at. They'd have you believe hospitals sit half empty most of the time. Telling me that an ICU is at 87% capacity doesn't say anything without saying what it was at last month or last year. And this is how they frame it basically every single article. "Jefferson hospital is at 90% capacity." Followed by a quote from a doctor that says "I am concerned. This isn't good."

 

 

Most states have a public health dashboard you can view if you don't trust the media. Or go to local news sources in those states.

[homer]

There's 30-40% of the population who is never getting vaccinated under any circumstances. There is no 100% vaccinated America and no zero Covid ever happening.

 

And I don’t get this. We solved polio. We solved measles, whooping cough, mumps, etc. Then a bunch of discredited docs wrote books questioning vaccines and we now have parts of the country with lower vaccination rates than third world countries. My generation never saw the horrors of those sicknesses because they were eradicated when we grew up, but we were all vaccinated. now those are on the rise because we aren’t learning from history

 

1. Pre-existing anti-vaccine sentiment that had been steadily gaining popularity even before Covid.

2. Social media/propaganda websites that present as legitimate news, freely spreading false information without repercussions for the last 15 or so years. Unpopular opinion possibly but the Internet has changed the game and the First Amendment is in dire need of revisiting.

3. Legitimate public distrust of the news, which constantly sells one apocalyptic crisis after another without ever seeing these things come to fruition.

4. Politicizing virus prevention like we do with almost everything, pitting one side against the other. If you do this or that, you are "one of them."

 

30-40% is just not true. It's less than 25% that will never get it. There's a big chunk that are in wait and see mode.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'll believe 75% of the US gets vaccinated when it happens. Telling someone on the phone you're going to get it or that you're waiting for the right time to get it isn't the same as getting it.

[homer]

I'll believe 75% of the US gets vaccinated when it happens. Telling someone on the phone you're going to get it or that you're waiting for the right time to get it isn't the same as getting it.

 

We have 70% adults with one shot now. The good news is that there's been a big uptick in vaccinations since this latest wave started.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'll believe 75% of the US gets vaccinated when it happens. Telling someone on the phone you're going to get it or that you're waiting for the right time to get it isn't the same as getting it.

 

We have 70% adults with one shot now. The good news is that there's been a big uptick in vaccinations since this latest wave started.

 

 

Couple of problems thinking this. To reach 70% of the total population vaccinated, you would need roughly 67% of kids under 18 to get vaccinated, or for example, 80% of adults and 60% of kids under 18.

 

The last figures I saw reported were something like 30% of kids 12-15 had a shot, the numbers increase for 16-17 for 45%, and increase more for 18-24, but they still float around 50% for 18-24. All of those will increase just because they've not had a chance to get it for very long, but it's not promising that so many adults under 50ish still don't care too much.

 

So I think it is quite optimistic to think kids will vaccinate at the rate of adults even once they're allowed to, for several reasons. They don't have the urgency the elderly do to get a shot, elderly people don't have kids in-home to go take to get a shot, there is almost no risk of them getting seriously ill, and anti-vac adults can have multiple kids, and young children is where people are most reluctant to get a shot.

 

The % vaccinated dip by age and once you hit 40-49 the % with one shot drops to 60%. Then 50% for 25-39. Those are the people who have kids. So...30% of the population remaining unvaccinated sounds rather likely, frankly I will be stunned if <25% of the population is unvaccinated at any point. You're not accounting for the fact that "eligible adult population" skews very old and is far more likely to get the vaccine.

 

If no more adults get a vaccine, and 50% of kids under 18 get it...that would put us at right about 65%. Which may not be too far off because while more adults will get it, I'm not sure we ever hit half of kids under 18. My guess would be some mixture of the two has us wind up right around there, 65%.

[Machu Peach]

Point of clarification the article I had seen indicated that younger people were more likely to be symptomatic with delta (which could be called more serious), but wasn't definitive on whether or not severe disease was more likely. I wasn't able to track it down again. But I did find this one on the prevalence of Long Covid in youth which I tend to worry about the most since I've already seen it torpedo an honor student.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01935-7

It's important to note that many of the symptoms of "long-haul COVID" (headaches, insomnia, fatigue, muscle pain, difficulty concentrating) are also symptoms of depression and anxiety. Given that it's well established that social isolation (which occurs with quarantine) can increase chances of developing depression or anxiety one would need a study with a control group and a plausible mechanism to determine a true rate of long-haul COVID. Do you know of a study that includes a control group or looks into a plausible mechanism?

[Machu Peach]

There's 30-40% of the population who is never getting vaccinated under any circumstances. There is no 100% vaccinated America and no zero Covid ever happening.

 

And I don’t get this. We solved polio. We solved measles, whooping cough, mumps, etc. Then a bunch of discredited docs wrote books questioning vaccines and we now have parts of the country with lower vaccination rates than third world countries. My generation never saw the horrors of those sicknesses because they were eradicated when we grew up, but we were all vaccinated. now those are on the rise because we aren’t learning from history

While I agree that we aren't learning from history, I think there's a different lesson to be learned from your 1st example, polio. The same year the polio vaccine was approved (1955), a public opinion poll showed that almost half of parents said they would not take the vaccine. In 1958 many pharmaceutical companies stopped making the vaccine because of vaccine hesitancy. It took a massive public education effort, famously spearheaded by the March of Dimes, and new vaccine to change public opinion.

 

Historically, pro-vaccination campaigns have been very successful worldwide. However, they require trust and respect. Attempting to scare people isn't very effective and belittling people even less so. More disciplined and respectful pro-vaccine messaging would be far, far more effective than the current media strategy.

[igor67]

Point of clarification the article I had seen indicated that younger people were more likely to be symptomatic with delta (which could be called more serious), but wasn't definitive on whether or not severe disease was more likely. I wasn't able to track it down again. But I did find this one on the prevalence of Long Covid in youth which I tend to worry about the most since I've already seen it torpedo an honor student.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01935-7

It's important to note that many of the symptoms of "long-haul COVID" (headaches, insomnia, fatigue, muscle pain, difficulty concentrating) are also symptoms of depression and anxiety. Given that it's well established that social isolation (which occurs with quarantine) can increase chances of developing depression or anxiety one would need a study with a control group and a plausible mechanism to determine a true rate of long-haul COVID. Do you know of a study that includes a control group or looks into a plausible mechanism?

 

I have not gone through and reviewed any of those papers methodologies closely so I am unfortunately unsure.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brewerfan.net community, covid has been a frustrating and difficult issue for everyone for well over a year now. After a thoughtful discussion amongst the mods, we have decided to close this thread. Above all else, we are a community of Brewer fans and baseball fans. This thread has proved to be divisive and If anything, most of the points have been rehashed multiple times. We all understand that this is a topic on everyone's minds, but the information and news and data that everyone wants and needs is readily available elsewhere on the web. We feel it's in the best interest of the Brewer fan community that we move on at this time from this topic. If you have any questions please feel free to PM a mod. Thanks.