COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[TURBO]

As long as minority communities take a pass on getting vaccinated, we are likely to be stuck at the current levels for quite a while. Very manageable, but we'll continue to see cuurent level of cases and deaths indefinitely. Outreach is needed to urge minority populations to get vaccinated. Obama? The Bucks? Not sure how, but we're losing the PR game.

 

Maybe if Harris will take a leadership role as well.

[Machu Peach]

This very well could be a huge setback.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/

This contradicts far larger, more fleshed out studies. Without presenting any actual data or the methodology it's hard to put any stock in it at all.

 

As long as minority communities take a pass on getting vaccinated, we are likely to be stuck at the current levels for quite a while. Very manageable, but we'll continue to see cuurent level of cases and deaths indefinitely. Outreach is needed to urge minority populations to get vaccinated. Obama? The Bucks? Not sure how, but we're losing the PR game.

Daily mortality has been steadily decreasing for over 3 months. There's no reason to believe that decline will not continue.

 

Nearly 70% of people are unvaccinated or are in the process of being vaccinated. The rate of vaccination is averaging over 3 million doses per day and rising. There will be a point where vaccine skeptics begin to slow down progress, but we are not near that point yet.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, in Wisconsin specifically the numbers can't get much lower as long as the minority numbers don't improve drastically. Black 15%, Hispanic 19%.

 

Now, if we were going by the original goal of flattening the curve, not overwhelming the healthcare system we've accomplished that. But the bar has moved, and normal will not return as long as we have current case numbers. And if the vast majority of minorities in urban areas don't get vaccinated the current numbers will plateau as they have for a month now.

[igor67]

There are quite a few different hesitant communities, the trendlines that I have generally seen are that traditional minority communities have become noticeably less hesitant over the last couple of months, but other populations have changed less. Looking at who has gotten the shots is somewhat misleading because the initial prioritization groups were heavily biased away from Black and Hispanic populations. In MN there is a 10% point difference in the vaccine rate in favor of women vs. men for exactly the same reason. A month ago the percentage gap was about the same and meant that about twice as many women as men had gotten the shot! WI's prioritization was similar with healthcare workers and older citizens. I don't have the break down for Wisconsin, but healthcare positions typically require college degrees which all but guarantees a smaller proportion of Black and Hispanic people were eligible, and since both also have noticeably lower life expectancies you would see a similar bias very specifically towards white women.

MN breaks the data down enough into both age groups and ethnicities

https://mn.gov/covid19/vaccine/data/index.jsp

So you can see that for the oldest populations the vaccination percentages track the different ethnic groups quite closely, and it is only in the younger age groups you see bigger differences consistent with most of the vaccinated people in those categories having been teachers and healthcare workers. It will take awhile for those numbers to even out. There is a lot of literature on vaccine hesitancy that predates the pandemic. One of the most effective things in getting people to take vaccines, is just sharing positive experiences and positive reasons for getting the vaccine with family and friends. While there are documentable biases in vaccine attitudes across the political spectrum, it isn't super dramatic. The reasons that people are inclined to be cautious about the Covid vaccine are even more diverse than other vaccines and there isn't anything close to a single best approach to convincing people. The opposite is actually true that anti-vaccine groups will opportunistically latch onto any argument that seems to be compelling to people.

[Machu Peach]

Well, in Wisconsin specifically the numbers can't get much lower as long as the minority numbers don't improve drastically. Black 15%, Hispanic 19%.

 

Now, if we were going by the original goal of flattening the curve, not overwhelming the healthcare system we've accomplished that. But the bar has moved, and normal will not return as long as we have current case numbers. And if the vast majority of minorities in urban areas don't get vaccinated the current numbers will plateau as they have for a month now.

Less than 25% of all people are fully vaccinated in Wisconsin. Given the prioritized age group (65+) is 93% white it is expected that there would be lower vaccination rates in non-white demographics

 

Even if one accepts that minority populations in WI are refusing to get vaccinated at a much higher rate (which I don't) they only make up 17% of the state's population. Roughly 60% of the state's population is white and unvaccinated. Only about 10% of the state's population is black or hispanic and unvaccinated.

 

Explaining Wisconsin's current COVID numbers using the 10% group and not the 60% group does not make sense, at least as it pertains to vaccination status.

[homer]

Anyone over 16 can walk into the Wisconsin Center 400 W. Wisconsin Ave., and get a shot without any wait time...

It is open 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Saturday and 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Sundays.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/2021/04/11/where-get-covid-19-vaccine-appointments-open-wisconsin-center/7183048002/

[LouisEly]

I just returned from Nashville. I've been visiting my friend there for 12 years or so and only once have we ever gone downtown and that was for a pedal tavern with his family the night before his wedding.

 

He had a friend from his small town in WI visiting this weekend, and he was going downtown with several friends/couples from where they live in WI (a different small town) so we met them out in downtown Nashville on Saturday afternoon.

 

What I saw scared the living hell out of me. Bars and streets packed, maybe 1 in 50 wearing a mask, bands playing at every bar, and when it's loud guess what people do... talk louder and get closer so people can hear you. And probably 80% of the people there don't live in Nashville.

 

Between that and Miami Beach (and any other party spot down South), I will be shocked if we don't have another surge.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sounds like fun, and what you should be doing if you're vaccinated.

[LouisEly]

Sounds like fun, and what you should be doing if you're vaccinated.

I don't think that a high % of that age group is vaccinated.

[reillymcshane]

The variants are king of scary right now. But we'll see where it all goes.

 

My wife was talking with an exec at the biggest system there, and he told her their COVID hospitalizations are something like 5x what they were two weeks ago. Starting to shut down elective surgeries there.

 

They are seeing the average age of people is about 10 years younger, which has been a trend we've seen a lot of places. Young people just seem to be much more susceptible to this variant. I've read some numbers showing youth sporting events are one of the big transmitters at this time.

 

Big thing is to get as many people - including young people - as possible vaccinated as possible. Still need more vaccines where we are. We are far better than we were 1-2 months ago - but her system is still only running about 40% of the tests they can be doing. They just aren't getting the vaccines. But it does get better all the time.

 

Still, my wife's system is experiencing upturns in positive tests, hospitalizations, etc. for the first time in a long time. It's sort of a race.

 

Still, roughly 30% of the people say they won't get the vaccine.

[DHonks]

Still, my wife's system is experiencing upturns in positive tests, hospitalizations, etc. for the first time in a long time. It's sort of a race.

 

Still, roughly 30% of the people say they won't get the vaccine.

 

One challenge with looking at upturns in positive tests is that since early January, people have been choosing not to get tested. With no major holidays around grandma, people have decided testing is optional. Since positive tests are reliant on people getting tested, it’s skewed low right now. At one point in AZ in early Feb, people were noting the huge decline prematurely because new cases were dropping, but the state was also having only 1/10th of their desired amount of tests being run. I’m sure it’s the same everywhere.

[Fear The Chorizo]

J&J jab suspended in the US....yippee

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

J&J jab suspended in the US....yippee

 

It might be semantics, but the CDC is suggesting administration of the vaccine be paused. Nothing has been officially suspended. Of the 6.8 million doses of the J&J vaccine administered so far in the U.S., there have been six confirmed cases of blood clots in women ages 18 to 49.

 

I have absolutely no doubt that this likely case of extreme caution is going to cause overblown paranoia.

[PeaveyFury]

I'd certainly be interested in Machu or one of our medical/microbio posters' take on this. As RRB noted, it's a small sample of the people who received the vaccine thus far.

 

Considering the recent 'production issue' that supposedly stemmed from the Astrazeneca and J&J vaccines being produced at the same facility resulting in human error confusion, I wonder if this is somehow related?

[Fear The Chorizo]

J&J jab suspended in the US....yippee

 

It might be semantics, but the CDC is suggesting administration of the vaccine be paused. Nothing has been officially suspended. Of the 6.8 million doses of the J&J vaccine administered so far in the U.S., there have been six confirmed cases of blood clots in women ages 18 to 49.

 

I have absolutely no doubt that this likely case of extreme caution is going to cause overblown paranoia.

 

True, but this clotting issue is similar to concerns with Astozeneca across Europe and many other countries, the other adenovirus vaccine...

 

VAERS reporting significantly lags vaccine dosing, and a clotting issue isn't something that is like an allergic reaction to a dose that would either happen very soon after getting jabbed or not at all. 6 cases in 7 million doesnt really mean much at this stage, because not enough time has elapsed for even mid term side effects to present themselves with any level of confidence (if there are any...joys of emergency use authorizations i guess). Hoping it is just a temporary pause, but there sure seems to be quite a bit of smoke with this issue coming from many different angles - not just antivax hysteria or contrarianism.

 

I was set to get my vaccine today and was likely going to get the j&j because the local provider i have an appointment with seemed to be administering that...will see what happens with my jab, but needless to say my mid 30s wife is shaking her head after a rough weekend of side effects since she got her j&j jab last week Friday after this comes out.

[PeaveyFury]

J&J jab suspended in the US....yippee

 

It might be semantics, but the CDC is suggesting administration of the vaccine be paused. Nothing has been officially suspended. Of the 6.8 million doses of the J&J vaccine administered so far in the U.S., there have been six confirmed cases of blood clots in women ages 18 to 49.

 

I have absolutely no doubt that this likely case of extreme caution is going to cause overblown paranoia.

 

True, but this clotting issue is similar to concerns with Astozeneca across Europe and many other countries, the other adenovirus vaccine...

 

But, the Astrazeneca vaccine was eventually approved, as the clotting cases were no more prevalent among the study participants than the general rate of blood clotting in the typical populace.

[PeaveyFury]

Sounds like fun, and what you should be doing if you're vaccinated.

I don't think that a high % of that age group is vaccinated.

 

I guess I'd also be interested to know what the percentage split is in that group of people between have/will be vaccinated and those that will choose not to.

[igor67]

I don't have a ton to add, other than this seems to be the system working to be vigilant for possible rare complications. Given the current reported frequency though I don't believe any of this would have been noticed in a more normal trial situation. Trials get into the tens of thousands normally, but that isn't going to give you any statistical power to notice 1 in a million type events. I will say that my quick look at some literature did not list clotting as a know potential side effect for adenovirus based vaccines.

[Fear The Chorizo]

And my appointment got cancelled since it was indeed going to be J&J...silver lining is now I'm getting Pfizer #1 tomorrow at a location much closer to my home. Saving gas is always a good thing, I guess.

 

But, the Astrazeneca vaccine was eventually approved, as the clotting cases were no more prevalent among the study participants than the general rate of blood clotting in the typical populace.

 

When you factor in all clotting issues among the general populace, many of which are minor in comparison to these apparent vaccine-induced events and much more predictable in terms of who may have/develop them and how to treat them to avoid a severe health event, this is correct (and why Astrazeneca was eventually approved). However, the combination of the age group/demographic that appears even remotely susceptible to this vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (which is a rare but severe clotting event that has killed perfectly healthy people), and the fact that same age group/demographic also has an extremely low to essentially zero statistical risk of dying from COVID....these issues have to be factored in when recommending whether a certain vaccine should be distributed or not to that particular demographic - this specific example appearing to be women under 50.

 

And as far as I can tell, Astrazeneca distribution has been paused in quite a few countries for quite some time where it was initially intended to be the primary jab. Approved for emergency use is one thing, distributed en masse is quite another.

[PeaveyFury]

the fact that same age group/demographic also has an extremely low to essentially zero statistical risk of dying from COVID

 

What do we actually know about the demographic of these cases, beyond age and gender? Is there anything out there to suggest that they were free from any underlying conditions or otherwise that would have provided an elevated risk of either blood clots or COVID-related complications?

 

We need to be careful not to let a, thus far, one in a million occurrence rate with limited details (again thus far) give fuel to the 'vaccines are dangerous' crowd.

 

EDIT: And in so far as death rate is concerned, only one of the blood clots have lead to death, for a rate of 1 in 6 million. I haven't looked at what the recent data is as far as age 18-50 COVID deaths, but I'd bet it's higher than 1/6 million.

[Machu Peach]

It's hard to know what to make of the clotting correlation without more information. For example, I have no idea what normal background clotting occurs with this population and I have no idea how long after the vaccination the clotting occurred. Any rare-event data presented without controls, even if it's just historical controls, is difficult to form opinions on. If anyone has a link with data, rather than a summary of the findings or someone's interpretation of the issue, I'd be grateful.

 

I will say I have extensive experience with rAdenovirus vaccines, specifically including the rAd26 vector these vaccines are based off of, and have never seen nor heard anything related to clotting being associated with them.

[nate82]

I believe I read somewhere that they think it is the birth control pills that are causing it. At least that is a theory which is probably more than likely the cause as there are some forms of birth control that can cause blood clots.

[Machu Peach]

Absent a direct mechanistic link, any explanation for a novel one in a million adverse event with 6 total events seems like pure speculation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't have a ton to add, other than this seems to be the system working to be vigilant for possible rare complications. Given the current reported frequency though I don't believe any of this would have been noticed in a more normal trial situation. Trials get into the tens of thousands normally, but that isn't going to give you any statistical power to notice 1 in a million type events. I will say that my quick look at some literature did not list clotting as a know potential side effect for adenovirus based vaccines.

 

So we are forgetting the 25 yr old guy in the j&j trial that had a stroke/thrombosis that actually led to the trial itself pausing for a period of time last summer?

[homer]

I don't have a ton to add, other than this seems to be the system working to be vigilant for possible rare complications. Given the current reported frequency though I don't believe any of this would have been noticed in a more normal trial situation. Trials get into the tens of thousands normally, but that isn't going to give you any statistical power to notice 1 in a million type events. I will say that my quick look at some literature did not list clotting as a know potential side effect for adenovirus based vaccines.

 

So we are forgetting the 25 yr old guy in the j&j trial that had a stroke/thrombosis that actually led to the trial itself pausing for a period of time last summer?

 

Is pausing during the trial phase that out of the ordinary for this sort of thing? And was it revealed if the guy received the vaccine or was in the placebo group? I don't remember if that was ever made public.