COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[homer]

For the life of me, I will never understand the appeal of Krispy Kreme. It's a doughnut.

[CheezWizHed]

I think their "schtick" is the fresh donut sign. When they are warm, they are pretty good, but I don't care for them otherwise.

[jerichoholicninja]

So apparently we're on the verge of another wave or surge or whatever despite having multiple vaccines and millions of people getting it everyday. Back when vaccines started being administered I posted here COVID rates would go up because people are stupid and a whole lot of them just hearing that there's a vaccine would make them go back to life as normal, whether they got it or not. Maybe that's why rates are going up. But if I understand correctly the current vaccines do a great job of minimizing the effects of the virus but there's no data that shows they actually prevent getting infected or spreading it. So basically haven't we created millions of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic spreaders? My in-laws have had both shots and they're just about back to life as normal going places and doing stuff with people. Most of my wife's patients are of the same age and have had both shots and they tell her how happy they are that they are back to doing normal things.

[MrTPlush]

For the life of me, I will never understand the appeal of Krispy Kreme. It's a doughnut.

 

They are really good, in my opinion. Especially for anyone who likes a nice soft/squishy raised doughnut and their fillings are top notch. Their cake doughnuts aren't as special though. Better than the garbage served at Dunkins...nasty frozen doughnuts that come on a truck. A Krispy Kreme can still be good 3+ days later, Dunkin...lucky if it tastes good the first day. Krispy Kremes are made fresh and the taste matches.

 

I will never understand the appeal of Glazers...I get Kwik Trip is the greatest thing on earth for people who have never left the WI borders, but those glazed doughnuts taste pretty close to any other boxed glazed doughnut I have ever gotten from a gas station.

[LouisEly]

Where it's surging in Chicago are the zip codes where young Millennials/college students live - Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Wicker Park. A 20-something that I manage went to Miami a couple of weeks ago and came back with COVID. Bars are opening up, it's spring break, and that's where it's spreading.

[reillymcshane]

So apparently we're on the verge of another wave or surge or whatever despite having multiple vaccines and millions of people getting it everyday. Back when vaccines started being administered I posted here COVID rates would go up because people are stupid and a whole lot of them just hearing that there's a vaccine would make them go back to life as normal, whether they got it or not. Maybe that's why rates are going up. But if I understand correctly the current vaccines do a great job of minimizing the effects of the virus but there's no data that shows they actually prevent getting infected or spreading it. So basically haven't we created millions of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic spreaders? My in-laws have had both shots and they're just about back to life as normal going places and doing stuff with people. Most of my wife's patients are of the same age and have had both shots and they tell her how happy they are that they are back to doing normal things.

One of the first vaccine related study was just released today.

 

The Pfizer and Modern vaccines are showing to be 80% of preventing infections after the first shot, 90% after the second.

 

The study is one of the first to estimate vaccine effectiveness amongst the participants against infections - rather than just monitor for symptomatic cases.

 

2,479 people in the study were fully vaccinated. 477 in the study had one shot. the participants were healthcare workers, police, teachers and firefighters and other essential workers. So it was working people who had contact with people in an everyday capacity.

 

The clinical trials had shown 905 effectiveness after 2 doses - and the new studies supports this.

 

There is some speculation that the vaccine helps make getting COVID less severe - but that's not part of the study, and there are no hard numbers I know of regarding this.

[Zad Fnark]

I got a work email stating the vaccination group has been widened:

 

• Any Wisconsin resident with medical conditions, including:

o Overweight (Body Mass Index of 25 or above)

o Asthma

o Diabetes (Type 1 or 2)

o Hypertension or high blood pressure

o Cancer

o For a complete list, please visit www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19

• Police and fire personnel

• Adults ages 65 and older

• Educators and child care workers (including sports coaches)

 

I'm on lisinopril (blood pressure), so I'm guessing I'm eligible now.

[CheezWizHed]

So apparently we're on the verge of another wave or surge or whatever despite having multiple vaccines and millions of people getting it everyday. Back when vaccines started being administered I posted here COVID rates would go up because people are stupid and a whole lot of them just hearing that there's a vaccine would make them go back to life as normal, whether they got it or not. Maybe that's why rates are going up. But if I understand correctly the current vaccines do a great job of minimizing the effects of the virus but there's no data that shows they actually prevent getting infected or spreading it. So basically haven't we created millions of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic spreaders? My in-laws have had both shots and they're just about back to life as normal going places and doing stuff with people. Most of my wife's patients are of the same age and have had both shots and they tell her how happy they are that they are back to doing normal things.

One of the first vaccine related study was just released today.

 

The Pfizer and Modern vaccines are showing to be 80% of preventing infections after the first shot, 90% after the second.

 

The study is one of the first to estimate vaccine effectiveness amongst the participants against infections - rather than just monitor for symptomatic cases.

 

2,479 people in the study were fully vaccinated. 477 in the study had one shot. the participants were healthcare workers, police, teachers and firefighters and other essential workers. So it was working people who had contact with people in an everyday capacity.

 

 

I'm curious how they come up with a percent with the element of time being a factor. Is it 90% effective for the first month? Second month? What happens at 6 months (which isn't known as they aren't that old yet)? Seems like the number should come with a qualifier for time.

 

I also wonder how they normalize this for exposure risks. Some people will be doing riskier activities than others.

 

Things I wonder...

The clinical trials had shown 905 effectiveness after 2 doses - and the new studies supports this.

 

There is some speculation that the vaccine helps make getting COVID less severe - but that's not part of the study, and there are no hard numbers I know of regarding this.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Where it's surging in Chicago are the zip codes where young Millennials/college students live - Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Wicker Park. A 20-something that I manage went to Miami a couple of weeks ago and came back with COVID. Bars are opening up, it's spring break, and that's where it's spreading.

 

Its spreading everywhere....just like it did last year around this time. A vaccination with a ~90% efficacy isn't going to stop that in its tracks, either as life crawls back to some semblance of normalcy (and it absolutely has to by now, we're already well into round #2 of FLA spring break articles trying to pin college kids for virus spread). There are endless anecdotes of unique COVID infection stories, including those of fresh assisted living facility confirmed case outbreaks, what's going on along the border at present, variant-a-palooza internationally that is creeping into US case totals, etc. that have nothing to do with spring breakers. The difference between this year and last in the US is now a vast majority of the population considered to be the highest risk for significant medical issues or death from COVID has been fully vaccinated and this is no longer a novel virus in terms of immune system response to those most vulnerable - so the percentage of hospitalizations/deaths per confirmed case should plummet during this upcoming spike in cases.

 

Specific to MN in my neck of the woods, new confirmed cases have been steadily climbing over the past couple of weeks despite MN being among the national leaders in percentage of people vaccinated. They're about to open vaccination availability to anyone over 16 this week - although the overall rate of vaccinations will depend on supply coming into the state. Hospitalizations have seen slight increases overall, but are trailing behind previous spikes in terms of how soon hospitalizations jumped with rising case rates. Daily deaths have been pretty stagnant, typically 4-10 per day and split relatively evenly among private residences and assisted living care facilities - still weighted overwhelmingly in that 80+ age bracket.

 

2,479 people in the study were fully vaccinated. 477 in the study had one shot. the participants were healthcare workers, police, teachers and firefighters and other essential workers. So it was working people who had contact with people in an everyday capacity.

 

Within that study group, do they state how many of them had never had a confirmed COVID case prior to the study starting? It'd be interesting seeing a subset analysis of the infection rates among the unvaccinated group between those previously with COVID who recovered and developed antibodies naturally vs those who never had a confirmed case....and also assessing how many of the vaccinated study group had a prior COVID infection that would be just as likely to protect them from future infections as a vaccine. Overall it's good news, but it's also noteworthy that due to the working age study group in pretty high physical demand jobs, it's not looking specifically at efficacy in the most vulnerable based on age and likely overall health.

[LouisEly]

I'm curious how they come up with a percent with the element of time being a factor. Is it 90% effective for the first month? Second month? What happens at 6 months (which isn't known as they aren't that old yet)? Seems like the number should come with a qualifier for time.

 

I also wonder how they normalize this for exposure risks. Some people will be doing riskier activities than others.

There is a time element to every study - Reilly just didn't put it in his quote. The challenge with time is 1) if it is too short a period of time, the question will be about sustaining protection; B) if is too long of a period of time the data won't be available to make decisions in a time of urgency; and 3) a study of this nature to measure at frequent time intervals means every participant getting tested at that time period which isn't really feasible with a large scale study. Much more feasible to measure at the end of the study.

 

As for normalizing exposure risk, reilly stated that:

 

the participants were healthcare workers, police, teachers and firefighters and other essential workers. So it was working people who had contact with people in an everyday capacity.

 

The participants were people with high exposure risk. I can't think of many occupations that have a higher exposure risk than those occupations. Most occupations have lower exposure risk, so there shouldn't be any fears of it being less effective in high exposure risk occupations.

[Machu Peach]

But if I understand correctly the current vaccines do a great job of minimizing the effects of the virus but there's no data that shows they actually prevent getting infected or spreading it. So basically haven't we created millions of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic spreaders?

Here's two studies from last week looking at high efficacy of the vaccine at preventing asymptotic or symptomatic infections. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2101927

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2102153

Here's a neat graph from one of the studies.

[attachment=0]nejmc2102153_f1 copy.jpg[/attachment]

 

There is some speculation that the vaccine helps make getting COVID less severe - but that's not part of the study, and there are no hard numbers I know of regarding this.

I believe this was the primary endpoint of the original phase III trials.

 

I'm curious how they come up with a percent with the element of time being a factor. Is it 90% effective for the first month? Second month? What happens at 6 months (which isn't known as they aren't that old yet)? Seems like the number should come with a qualifier for time.

I believe they're measuring reduction in relative risk. Normal vaccine studies have defined endpoints, so the statistics used would be different.

[Baldkin]

If you are in or around Milwaukee, I highly suggest looking to get signed up at the Wisconsin Center. I got my first shot and it was incredibly smooth and easy to get in and out and took less than 1/2 hour total. There are 100's of unclaimed slots this week.

 

https://wi-telegov.egov.com/milwaukee-vaccines

 

Shots in arms, people.

[PeaveyFury]

But if I understand correctly the current vaccines do a great job of minimizing the effects of the virus but there's no data that shows they actually prevent getting infected or spreading it.

 

In addition to what Machu noted regarding preventing infection, there is widespread speculation (and possibly some emerging data to support it, I just haven't had a chance to look it up recently) that it reduces viral load which reduces the possibility of spreading it. The CDC has relaxed 'mask guidance' in some situations due to this concept.

 

But, as to the current spikes, I think it's accurate to assume that infections will spike but that deaths and hospitalizations may not since the vulnerable have had some opportunity at this point to receive the vaccine.

 

Purely my own speculation, but I think the current spikes are a factor of winter letting up and populations becoming more mobile as a result, along with some fairly widespread 'letting your guard down,' as you noted. Plus, the populations who have never taken this seriously still not taking this seriously.

[igor67]

Lot's of good stuff posted so far, but the rise is also being impacted by more infectious variants becoming more common. This possibility was predicted a month plus back in time as a significant risk as well. In general the transmission kinetics (speed) are also nonlinear, so the biggest impact on rate is going to happen as we get closer to the herd immunity bar (which is also higher now with the more transmissible variants). There is also the importance of the two weeks for the immunity to kick in fully. So the current MN risk is (and WI seems pretty close in the numbers I've seen) is based on more like only 20% with 1 dose and 10% with both. On the plus side those numbers are on track to improve significantly over the next month or so.

[JosephC]

So apparently we're on the verge of another wave or surge or whatever despite having multiple vaccines and millions of people getting it everyday. Back when vaccines started being administered I posted here COVID rates would go up because people are stupid and a whole lot of them just hearing that there's a vaccine would make them go back to life as normal, whether they got it or not. Maybe that's why rates are going up. But if I understand correctly the current vaccines do a great job of minimizing the effects of the virus but there's no data that shows they actually prevent getting infected or spreading it. So basically haven't we created millions of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic spreaders? My in-laws have had both shots and they're just about back to life as normal going places and doing stuff with people. Most of my wife's patients are of the same age and have had both shots and they tell her how happy they are that they are back to doing normal things.

 

Pre-Easter hysteria from the ruling class. Nothing more. We've been through this song-and-dance before and I suspect this will happen prior to every holiday for the next year or two. As has been shown by the SCIENCE, getting 12 people together from 3 different households carries the substantial risks of causing a global surge. However, piling 50 people from 50 different households into 1 workplace carries virtually no risk (especially if the revenue the worker generates contributes to some CEO's 3 million dollar salary).

[PeaveyFury]

However, piling 50 people from 50 different households into 1 workplace carries virtually no risk

 

As it has been pointed out before, literally no one has said that.

 

Back to the vaccine supply question, if you're eligible in the current wave in Wisconsin and haven't scheduled yet, it sounds like there's a lot of pharmacy availability from Walgreens, etc. For example, I have a friend from way back in HS who was at a Walgreens for something else and thought to check with the pharmacy to see what their availability was that day (last weekend), and got a shot literally on the spot.

 

If you're waiting because you think others with more serious conditions should have an opportunity, they've likely had the opportunity at this point.

[PeaveyFury]

No politics. There have been multiple warnings in these threads previously. Any additional political commentary will result in appropriate time off.

[Zad Fnark]

Got my 1st shot today. The bad one comes Apr 20.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just announced that everyone in Wisconsin 16 and older will be eligible to be vaccinated starting Monday.

[PeaveyFury]

Outstanding news. I suspected that it would be earlier than the previous May 1 date, but I'm surprised it advanced that far. At this point, I think there's enough supply to support this.

[Zad Fnark]

I wasn't even checked for eligibility. I figured I could since I have blood pressure meds. As it is, anyone could have gone it and got a shot.

[Outlander]

However, piling 50 people from 50 different households into 1 workplace carries virtually no risk

 

As it has been pointed out before, literally no one has said that.

 

Back to the vaccine supply question, if you're eligible in the current wave in Wisconsin and haven't scheduled yet, it sounds like there's a lot of pharmacy availability from Walgreens, etc. For example, I have a friend from way back in HS who was at a Walgreens for something else and thought to check with the pharmacy to see what their availability was that day (last weekend), and got a shot literally on the spot.

 

If you're waiting because you think others with more serious conditions should have an opportunity, they've likely had the opportunity at this point.

Absolutely, the more that get it the better. I have been helping some of my more technology challenged relatives get appointments and they have been fairly easy to get. The way it is looking anybody that wants one should easily be able to get them in the next couple of weeks. Wisconsin is doing a great job with the vaccinations.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have my appts setup through Walgreens. What a clunky system though. Four locations near me showed a bunch of time slots. Select one and it says no time slots available for 2nd shot so you can't make either appt. Why would they show the time slots available then??! Also, every time you search, its back to the beginning and navigate through all the questions. First world problem, I know.

[igor67]

I got my second shot Saturday, no side effects beside normal range arm pain for an injection. So suffering is not a guarantee.

[BrewCrewForever]

Had my first shot last Friday. No side effects at all other than my arm hurt a little bit, but that was gone by Sunday. Second shot April 23rd. Looking forward to being fully vaccinated. Glad I got one down.