COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[PeaveyFury]

I think a lot of that stuff is premature until actual studies/trials come to fruition. For example, I believe a study concluded this week that indicated the the Pfizer vaccine was effective against the UK variant.

[adambr2]

In addition, from what I understand(disclaimer: not an expert at all), vaccinating against variants where current vaccinations have shown to be ineffective isn't typically like starting from scratch against a brand new virus; but rather just tweaking existing vaccinations.

[igor67]

Modest concern is an appropriate feeling at the moment. What I have seen for somewhat deeper looks and analysis to date has not shown a decrease in effectiveness for existing vaccine candidates to these newer mutations. Continued high caseloads worldwide though is just asking for trouble on this front. It is basically lottery math, any individual infection at this point looks to have a very low, almost effectively zero chance of being resistant to the vaccine, but we have millions of new cases and drawings happening all the time just waiting for the winner so to speak.

[reillymcshane]

Wisconsin going to start vaccinating general public 65 and older next week. Have a friend who works at a pharmacy and he said they had no heads up this was going to happen already. Phone is ringing off the hook and they have no info to give out. They don't know when they will get vaccines, how much, or how to give it out.

My wife's organization has gone through this same thing. It's lead to a lot of confusion and frustration. It just got announced with no heads up to the health care orgs, who are left to scramble for how they are going to manage things. The big problem is that the places that can give the shot aren't necessarily built to handle thousands of calls to set up a the shots. It's really unprecedented for them.

 

The other big issue - at least for my wife's organization - is that they don't know when - and how many - vaccines they will be getting. If you schedule too many people for shots, everyone gets angry about being re-scheduled. And if you don't schedule enough, everyone will get angry about that.

 

Another issue is the state is trying to organize how to get the vaccines administered throughout the state. It's a huge endeavor. This is a mass vaccination we're talking about - and there are a ton of moving parts.

[FVBrewerFan]

Wisconsin going to start vaccinating general public 65 and older next week. Have a friend who works at a pharmacy and he said they had no heads up this was going to happen already. Phone is ringing off the hook and they have no info to give out. They don't know when they will get vaccines, how much, or how to give it out.

My wife's organization has gone through this same thing. It's lead to a lot of confusion and frustration. It just got announced with no heads up to the health care orgs, who are left to scramble for how they are going to manage things. The big problem is that the places that can give the shot aren't necessarily built to handle thousands of calls to set up a the shots. It's really unprecedented for them.

 

The other big issue - at least for my wife's organization - is that they don't know when - and how many - vaccines they will be getting. If you schedule too many people for shots, everyone gets angry about being re-scheduled. And if you don't schedule enough, everyone will get angry about that.

 

Another issue is the state is trying to organize how to get the vaccines administered throughout the state. It's a huge endeavor. This is a mass vaccination we're talking about - and there are a ton of moving parts.

 

Is it unprecedented though? Yes and no. Everyone who gets the flu shot every year get it within the same window of time, for the most part. I understand this vaccine is different in several ways, but they've also had many months to prepare. It's pretty easy to generate a list of patients within a healthcare system that are 75+ or 65+. Then there's the high risk patients of a younger age- which is a little more difficult but very manageable if you break it down the primary physician level.

 

The pharmacy program for skilled nursing facilities and assisted living should be even easier. We already know how many there are, where they are, and how many residents are at each one. With many months to plan, that should be relatively easy.

 

All that said, I get that nothing is ever as easy as it seems.

[reillymcshane]

There is a proposal to get all Wisconsinites available for vaccination by March.

 

The problem is that we are only getting 70,000 doses a week. And that won't change for at least a month or so. And the other thing not mentioned is that the distribution of those doses isn't consistent. My wife said her org doesn't know what they'll be getting very far in advance. Again, this makes scheduling a real issue.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/21/republicans-propose-making-covid-vaccine-available-everyone-mid-march/4231850001/

 

The cynic in me says this is strictly a political ploy, but I hope not. It's such a serious thing.

[reillymcshane]

Wisconsin going to start vaccinating general public 65 and older next week. Have a friend who works at a pharmacy and he said they had no heads up this was going to happen already. Phone is ringing off the hook and they have no info to give out. They don't know when they will get vaccines, how much, or how to give it out.

My wife's organization has gone through this same thing. It's lead to a lot of confusion and frustration. It just got announced with no heads up to the health care orgs, who are left to scramble for how they are going to manage things. The big problem is that the places that can give the shot aren't necessarily built to handle thousands of calls to set up a the shots. It's really unprecedented for them.

 

The other big issue - at least for my wife's organization - is that they don't know when - and how many - vaccines they will be getting. If you schedule too many people for shots, everyone gets angry about being re-scheduled. And if you don't schedule enough, everyone will get angry about that.

 

Another issue is the state is trying to organize how to get the vaccines administered throughout the state. It's a huge endeavor. This is a mass vaccination we're talking about - and there are a ton of moving parts.

 

Is it unprecedented though? Yes and no. Everyone who gets the flu shot every year get it within the same window of time, for the most part. I understand this vaccine is different in several ways, but they've also had many months to prepare. It's pretty easy to generate a list of patients within a healthcare system that are 75+ or 65+. Then there's the high risk patients of a younger age- which is a little more difficult but very manageable if you break it down the primary physician level.

 

The pharmacy program for skilled nursing facilities and assisted living should be even easier. We already know how many there are, where they are, and how many residents are at each one. With many months to plan, that should be relatively easy.

 

All that said, I get that nothing is ever as easy as it seems.

 

Actually, I this is pretty unprecedented for much of the state. It's just not something that has been done - rolling out a state-wide vaccine campaign a matter of weeks.

 

First, the planning and rollout has just been haphazard. The decision to offer vaccines to 65+ was announced without much warning - and healthcare system were overwhelmed with inquiries. A lot could have been alleviated if a schedule had been put up weeks ago - just gradually increasing things - such as starting at age 85+ and then dropping it 5 or 10 years two weeks later. And then another 5-10 years two weeks after that, etc., etc. It would have allowed the public - and the healthcare systems - to have planned accordingly. If the feds had offered that guidance up front, it might have helped. And a lot. Of course, that's hindsight. And who knows what issues would have cropped up instead.

 

Second, thing, right now the state is getting 70,000 doses per week, yet 200,000 eligible people are requesting the vaccine. My wife's organization puts in a request for vaccines each week, and on Friday at 6:00 p.m. they are told how many they will be getting the next week - so they can finally start to confirm appointments with people. And even then, the vaccines are supposed to arrive the following Monday, but they have arrived as a late as Wednesday. Also, the number of vaccines they receive each week isn't consistent, so they can't just count on using the number they had gotten the previous week.

 

Third, the deep cold storage needed for some of the vaccines is unique - and has provided some limitations. But I think that was more to start.

 

Fourth thing, people have to be trained on how to administer the shot - you have to stick them in a specific spot, know what to look for, etc. Plus the person getting the vaccine has to wait 15-20 minutes after getting the shot - and be checked on by a health professional. Not a huge deal, but important.

 

In the end, there has just not been a state-wide, coordinated vaccine program like this established in a matter of weeks. The state - and the feds - just have not done that (at least that I'm aware of). Flu vaccines are handled years and months in advance. And shortages are rare.

 

I want to stress that I only know this stuff from the point of view of a healthcare system. How all the nursing homes and so forth come into this is not something I know much about.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

So, the TL;DR is that healthy people under 40 can expect a vaccine sometime around the 4th of July, 2023.

[Machu Peach]

A lot could have been alleviated if a schedule had been put up weeks ago - just gradually increasing things - such as starting at age 85+ and then dropping it 5 or 10 years two weeks later. And then another 5-10 years two weeks after that, etc., etc.

Strict enforcement of "the line" greatly slowed things down in some areas and lead to a lot of waste (before those policies were relaxed). Israel and UAE, arguably the two countries with most successful vaccine rollouts, have been very flexible about who gets vaccinated in what order. The Israeli system has often been described as "organized chaos" and my friend (an MD) in UAE has said the process to get vaccinated was "show up with an ID and if we enough vaccine we'll vaccinate you."

 

For all the concern, the US as a whole has had one of the more successful rollouts by many objective measures. It seems that Wisconsin has been/is a disaster, but I don't believe that's the case everywhere.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just got a call from my local clinic, and I'm scheduled to go in for the first round of the COVID vaccine on Feb. 5. Pretty stoked about it. Hopefully there's a light at the end of the tunnel now.

 

Disclaimer: I am only 40, but as a Type 1 diabetic and a part of the local media where I live, I was deemed "worthy" I guess. Either that, or there are so many anti-vaxxers up in northern Wisconsin that I moved up the list through attrition.

[jerichoholicninja]

Just got a call from my local clinic, and I'm scheduled to go in for the first round of the COVID vaccine on Feb. 5. Pretty stoked about it. Hopefully there's a light at the end of the tunnel now.

 

Disclaimer: I am only 40, but as a Type 1 diabetic and a part of the local media where I live, I was deemed "worthy" I guess. Either that, or there are so many anti-vaxxers up in northern Wisconsin that I moved up the list through attrition.

 

That's interesting. I'm type 1 myself. Just had a doctor appointment yesterday and it wasn't even brought up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just got a call from my local clinic, and I'm scheduled to go in for the first round of the COVID vaccine on Feb. 5. Pretty stoked about it. Hopefully there's a light at the end of the tunnel now.

 

Disclaimer: I am only 40, but as a Type 1 diabetic and a part of the local media where I live, I was deemed "worthy" I guess. Either that, or there are so many anti-vaxxers up in northern Wisconsin that I moved up the list through attrition.

 

That's interesting. I'm type 1 myself. Just had a doctor appointment yesterday and it wasn't even brought up.

 

I did do the automated sign-up through my clinic's website, and filled out the form listing my issues in regards to qualifying. I too just had an appointment with my endocrinologist last week, and asked about it, and he couldn't really give me much more information than "keep calling". I am honestly extremely surprised I got a call. That would be my suggestion to you as well ... keep calling. If it helps, I am getting mine through Marshfield Clinic.

[jerichoholicninja]

Just got a call from my local clinic, and I'm scheduled to go in for the first round of the COVID vaccine on Feb. 5. Pretty stoked about it. Hopefully there's a light at the end of the tunnel now.

 

Disclaimer: I am only 40, but as a Type 1 diabetic and a part of the local media where I live, I was deemed "worthy" I guess. Either that, or there are so many anti-vaxxers up in northern Wisconsin that I moved up the list through attrition.

 

That's interesting. I'm type 1 myself. Just had a doctor appointment yesterday and it wasn't even brought up.

 

I did do the automated sign-up through my clinic's website, and filled out the form listing my issues in regards to qualifying. I too just had an appointment with my endocrinologist last week, and asked about it, and he couldn't really give me much more information than "keep calling". I am honestly extremely surprised I got a call. That would be my suggestion to you as well ... keep calling. If it helps, I am getting mine through Marshfield Clinic.

 

I'm not interested in getting it yet. I just thought he might have said something about it. I can't be too surprised though as he's never brought up the flu shot either that I never get.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not interested in getting it yet. I just thought he might have said something about it. I can't be too surprised though as he's never brought up the flu shot either that I never get.

 

That's odd. Mine is a stickler for the flu vaccine. If I haven't had it yet for my annual fall appointment, he orders one for me and I get it before I leave the clinic. Getting the common flu can be terrible when you're a Type 1. The one time I got it several years ago my BG counts were all over the place.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm not interested in getting it yet. I just thought he might have said something about it. I can't be too surprised though as he's never brought up the flu shot either that I never get.

 

That's odd. Mine is a stickler for the flu vaccine. If I haven't had it yet for my annual fall appointment, he orders one for me and I get it before I leave the clinic. Getting the common flu can be terrible when you're a Type 1. The one time I got it several years ago my BG counts were all over the place.

 

If my doctor did that I'd drop them in a heartbeat. My last two Dr's I've had are amazing. Very hands off and just sit and listen and ask me what I'd like to do. Everyone before that was so controlling. I'd only go once a year and that was because I had to to get my prescriptions renewed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not interested in getting it yet. I just thought he might have said something about it. I can't be too surprised though as he's never brought up the flu shot either that I never get.

 

That's odd. Mine is a stickler for the flu vaccine. If I haven't had it yet for my annual fall appointment, he orders one for me and I get it before I leave the clinic. Getting the common flu can be terrible when you're a Type 1. The one time I got it several years ago my BG counts were all over the place.

 

If my doctor did that I'd drop them in a heartbeat. My last two Dr's I've had are amazing. Very hands off and just sit and listen and ask me what I'd like to do. Everyone before that was so controlling. I'd only go once a year and that was because I had to to get my prescriptions renewed.

 

The Dr. I had before this one was the "7-minute appointment" type. That was fine, as I have been Type 1 for 26 years, so I know how to handle it. The new guy is fine, though, too. He seems to actually take an interest in how I'm doing, and makes suggestions. He isn't just a guy to sign a prescription, like the last guy was. I actually kinda like that he reminds me to get my flu shot. Late fall comes up quick, and I've forgotten in the past.

[reillymcshane]

Here's a specific example that healthcare orgs are facing.

 

Two weeks ago, my wife's organization got (insert number) of vaccines.

 

One week ago they 2/3 of that number.

 

This week, they got 1/2 of the original number of vaccines.

 

The total number of vaccines they are getting is around 1/4 of what they are asking for.

 

This is happening along with 700,000 more Wisconsinites being eligible for the vaccine (starting Tuesday, 1.6M people in the state will be eligible for the vaccine - basically 1/3 of the population). And we can't forget, 300,000 people have gotten the vaccine in the state - and many of them will need a second shot.

 

The big issue is the state just isn't getting that many vaccines. We are at 70,000 a week for at least another month or so. Thus, things are not going to change any time soon.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Here's a specific example that healthcare orgs are facing.

 

Two weeks ago, my wife's organization got (insert number) of vaccines.

 

One week ago they 2/3 of that number.

 

This week, they got 1/2 of the original number of vaccines.

 

The total number of vaccines they are getting is around 1/4 of what they are asking for.

 

This is happening along with 700,000 more Wisconsinites being eligible for the vaccine (starting Tuesday, 1.6M people in the state will be eligible for the vaccine - basically 1/3 of the population). And we can't forget, 300,000 people have gotten the vaccine in the state - and many of them will need a second shot.

 

The big issue is the state just isn't getting that many vaccines. We are at 70,000 a week for at least another month or so. Thus, things are not going to change any time soon.

 

When you look at WI active covid cases currently, its overall daily case count trend (continued decline since the early November Midwest peak), and the percentage of Wisconsinites who haven't actually had a confirmed case of COVID-19 to date, the state should be among the lowest priority states in the country to get vaccinated right now. Compared to a state like California, which still has a higher percentage of people (and much higher overall number of people) who haven't gotten COVID and despite recent declines is still seeing close to 30K people a day testing positive for COVID, it shouldn't be difficult to see why there is presently a vaccine supply limitation in WI...there are simply many more parts of the country whose highest priority groups need what supply there is much more than WI.

[CheezWizHed]

Over the past week, we have gotten up over 1M vaccines being delivered per day. Seems odd that WI's is dropping when the overall delivery has been going up...

 

Edit - I should say peaking over 1 million vaccinated daily... I'd assume the supply would be similar at that point, but that wasn't confirmed.

[FVBrewerFan]

Here's a specific example that healthcare orgs are facing.

 

Two weeks ago, my wife's organization got (insert number) of vaccines.

 

One week ago they 2/3 of that number.

 

This week, they got 1/2 of the original number of vaccines.

 

The total number of vaccines they are getting is around 1/4 of what they are asking for.

 

This is happening along with 700,000 more Wisconsinites being eligible for the vaccine (starting Tuesday, 1.6M people in the state will be eligible for the vaccine - basically 1/3 of the population). And we can't forget, 300,000 people have gotten the vaccine in the state - and many of them will need a second shot.

 

The big issue is the state just isn't getting that many vaccines. We are at 70,000 a week for at least another month or so. Thus, things are not going to change any time soon.

 

I understand the frustration, but there's still a wide delta between doses available and administered. Also, doses given per week keeps going up. That tells me a shortage isn't the problem, it's that the state isn't sending enough to your area for whatever reason.

 

Some good news for me, my parents facility is scheduled for the first dose in a week through the pharmacy program. Ironically, the next day I got an email from their HCO that they have vaccine available for them as well.

[igor67]

As seen most directly with a large number of the large stadium type rollout locations around the country indicating they ran out the core issue is better recognized as a tradeoff between prioritization and speed. Emphasizing the prioritization rules being followed inevitably leads to slow downs once you translate that to individuals on the ground. As an example see the post a page or two back where at least some where throwing out doses instead of getting them to others. A very well thought-out alternative approach is described in this post.

https://telliamedrevisited.wordpress.com/2021/01/12/an-engineering-perspective-on-accelerating-vaccine-distribution/

[reillymcshane]

Here's a specific example that healthcare orgs are facing.

 

Two weeks ago, my wife's organization got (insert number) of vaccines.

 

One week ago they 2/3 of that number.

 

This week, they got 1/2 of the original number of vaccines.

 

The total number of vaccines they are getting is around 1/4 of what they are asking for.

 

This is happening along with 700,000 more Wisconsinites being eligible for the vaccine (starting Tuesday, 1.6M people in the state will be eligible for the vaccine - basically 1/3 of the population). And we can't forget, 300,000 people have gotten the vaccine in the state - and many of them will need a second shot.

 

The big issue is the state just isn't getting that many vaccines. We are at 70,000 a week for at least another month or so. Thus, things are not going to change any time soon.

 

I understand the frustration, but there's still a wide delta between doses available and administered. Also, doses given per week keeps going up. That tells me a shortage isn't the problem, it's that the state isn't sending enough to your area for whatever reason.

I believe (but not 100% sure) larger metro areas have gotten higher percentages of the vaccines. I think this because they are more likely to be/become hot spots - so there's a desire to get people vaccinated as fast as possible. Which I think makes sense. Clustered people tend to have outbreaks more than a spread out population.

[homer]

Wisconsin's 7 day rolling average of new cases is back where it was in mid Sept. Certainly moving in the right direction.

[stoutdude04]

My vaccine pushed to March 1st. I have no problem waiting, but I think this is the frustrating part. They have pushed ours back 2 times now. Fine, but maybe don't give us a date until you are actually sure when it is going to happen.

[Machu Peach]

It's a catch 22. Give people a date that isn't 100% certain and they're disappointed if there are delays. Don't give people dates until it's absolutely 100% set in stone and they're disappointed in the lack of communication/lack of planning. I don't think there's a balance that's going to make everyone happy.

 

I think some people may be overestimating the predictability of the manufacturing of biology active, cGMP-compliant products and reagents. It's not like one can say they're going to get exactly X doses off of each run.

 

Additionally, I would hope that the distribution plan is being continuously updated as new data is produced and new needs emerge.