COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[reillymcshane]

My wife got her first vaccine shot on Monday. She's doing well - no side affects other than a bit of a sore arm where she got the shot.

 

As she work's in a hospital system, she's knows a lot of people who have got the shot. Thus far, it seems that the second shot has had some harsher side effects. One friend had a bad headache for two days and was just sort of wiped out. Otherwise, it's all over the board regarding reactions - but nothing too severe.

 

Can't wait to get my shot - but it's a long way off as I'm not on any need-to-get list. But eventually.

[Machu Peach]

I do appreciate a good dose of cold water, Machu. Could you elaborate a bit on which characteristics are the biggest hurdles? I'm considering if I want to invest some time researching more for redesigning part of a unit.

It's easy to induce antibodies against either flu or HIV, but it's difficult to specifically induce protective antibodies.

 

For flu you'll want to look into the concepts of "antigenic drift", "antigenic shift", and "original antigenic sin." Basically, flu strains can interact and trade surface components such that an effective antibody response against one strain can be completely ineffective against a new strain, even if they still bind.

 

HIV has a massive glycan shield which protects it from most antibodies. This is further confounded by the fact that it's hard to get synthesized HIV proteins to fold exactly correctly. Additionally it has a famously low fidelity polymerase such that there can be multiple quasispecies within a single individual, leading to rapid immune escape mutations.

[igor67]

Very helpful I was unaware of the folding difficulties with HIV proteins. I had assumed that part of the appeal of an mRNA vaccine for flu long term was that eventually it would have a much shorter manufacturing time horizon, so they could do a better job matching the yearly vaccine to the dominant strains that year, not that they would be able to pull off a one size fits all.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The way things are going there won't be a need for a better seasonal flu vaccine compared to what they've been doing...nobody, and I mean essentially nobody has it this winter. Goes to show how much more contagious COVID is when these distancing protocols all but squash influenza but are mixed at best trying to keep COVID from spreading on a community level wherever seasonal conditions are optimal for viral spread.

[igor67]

I don't know what normal proportion of flu transmission happens in schools compared to other places, but all respiratory virus numbers have been way down and students are loaded with those all the time.

[Machu Peach]

Very helpful I was unaware of the folding difficulties with HIV proteins. I had assumed that part of the appeal of an mRNA vaccine for flu long term was that eventually it would have a much shorter manufacturing time horizon, so they could do a better job matching the yearly vaccine to the dominant strains that year, not that they would be able to pull off a one size fits all.

The majority of current flu vaccine research is toward generating a universal flu vaccine, so I thought thats what you were referring. mRNA vaccine approaches could be part of that, but they would not address the main problems.

 

As far as a shorter manufacturing time time leading to more accurate predictions of the seasonal flu strains, yes I suppose it could help. The current flu vaccine production strategies are archaic and better alternatives have existed for decades. Maybe this will finally generate enough motivation to update them.

[logan82]

The current flu vaccine is a guess from two years out I thought. Kind of why I have never had the flu vaccine not being in a class with high susceptibility.

[stoutdude04]

The current flu vaccine is a guess from two years out I thought. Kind of why I have never had the flu vaccine not being in a class with high susceptibility.

 

Ya know, its funny. I never got the flu vaccine until I had a child on the way 3 years ago. I used to get the flu once a year and multiple lengthy illnesses. Since the flu shot, nothing. That is, until last year middle of February. However, I'm not entirely convinced I didnt have Covid. I know the timeline does match up, but man I checked ALL of the boxes except the taste and smell, but I couldnt eat, so who knows.

[Machu Peach]

The current flu vaccine is a guess from two years out I thought. Kind of why I have never had the flu vaccine not being in a class with high susceptibility.

This is simply not true. FDA meets in February to select the vaccine strains for the next fall. They're also based on surveillance data, often from strains circulating in the Southern Hemisphere's flu season, and are certainly not a "guess".

 

As far as not getting the flu vaccine because one is not in a high risk category, it's the same logic people use when not complying with COVID mitigation efforts (and the same counterargument). One may not be in a risk category, but if infected one could spread it to someone who is.

[stoutdude04]

Just found up I am in line for my first shot the week of the 25th.

[FVBrewerFan]

Teachers getting vaccine before the elderly, that was predictable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Teachers getting vaccine before the elderly, that was predictable.

 

Well, yeah. Many state legislatures and the outgoing administration haven't hid the fact that they consider in-person school an extremely high priority.

[homer]

Beginning January 18, 2021, police and fire personnel will be eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Local health departments (LHDs) will be leading the coordination for the vaccination of police and fire personnel, as well as Emergency Medical Services and unaffiliated health care providers in their jurisdictions. Local health departments will work in partnership with local vaccinators, including health care systems and pharmacies. To ensure everyone that is eligible for a vaccine has access to a provider, DHS will work alongside LHDs in coordinating with police and fire associations.

 

After we get more vaccine supply and vaccinate those in Phase 1A, we anticipate that Phase 1B may include persons aged 75 and older and non–health care frontline essential workers. Then we anticipate in Phase 1C, persons aged 65–74, persons aged 16–64 with high-risk medical conditions, and essential workers not included in Phase 1B will start receiving COVID-19 vaccine. This information is subject to change based on further guidelines and vaccine supply.

 

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-about.htm

[jerichoholicninja]

My wife works for Aurora and I'm going to throw them under the bus because they have handled COVID like idiots from the beginning. I could go on and on but here's the latest. All buildings have screeners that check temperatures of people going in. That's certainly not uncommon anywhere these days. However, now in an effort to save time, Aurora has told their employees to download an app where they will check their own temperature at home and enter it in the app. If it's an acceptable temperature it will tell them they can go to work. Here's the mindblowingly stupid kicker: they still have screeners and you have to show the screener that the app says you're ok to work to get into the building. This is going to save zero time and how many people are actually going to check their temperature and not just enter a normal reading because they feel fine. Sure, these are health professionals so you would think all of them would but there is still custodial, office, cafeteria, etc. staff who probably aren't any different than the general public and don't care. If anyone here works for Aurora they know that since they combined with Advocate and their people took over it's become obvious they are morons.

[FVBrewerFan]

Teachers getting vaccine before the elderly, that was predictable.

 

Well, yeah. Many state legislatures and the outgoing administration haven't hid the fact that they consider in-person school an extremely high priority.

 

Sure. The only problem with that is giving the vaccine to healthy 28 year old teachers before 1A is even close to being completed. Having teachers being included in 1B is debatable to begin with, but including them as de facto 1A population is another story.

[FVBrewerFan]

My wife works for Aurora and I'm going to throw them under the bus because they have handled COVID like idiots from the beginning. I could go on and on but here's the latest. All buildings have screeners that check temperatures of people going in. That's certainly not uncommon anywhere these days. However, now in an effort to save time, Aurora has told their employees to download an app where they will check their own temperature at home and enter it in the app. If it's an acceptable temperature it will tell them they can go to work. Here's the mindblowingly stupid kicker: they still have screeners and you have to show the screener that the app says you're ok to work to get into the building. This is going to save zero time and how many people are actually going to check their temperature and not just enter a normal reading because they feel fine. Sure, these are health professionals so you would think all of them would but there is still custodial, office, cafeteria, etc. staff who probably aren't any different than the general public and don't care. If anyone here works for Aurora they know that since they combined with Advocate and their people took over it's become obvious they are morons.

 

I also know of a health care company where many workers that never come into contact with patients (IT, accounting, etc.) have been immunized while many nurses, PAs, Techs, etc. have not. And....it's not been very good for morale.

[TURBO]

Teachers getting vaccine before the elderly, that was predictable.

 

Well, yeah. Many state legislatures and the outgoing administration haven't hid the fact that they consider in-person school an extremely high priority.

 

Sure. The only problem with that is giving the vaccine to healthy 28 year old teachers before 1A is even close to being completed. Having teachers being included in 1B is debatable to begin with, but including them as de facto 1A population is another story.

 

 

Why is having teachers included in 1B debatable? Especially those teaching in-person.

 

Just curious...

[Machu Peach]

Vaccinating anyone in any occupation not directly related to in-person COVID treatment or elder care (or the immunocompromised if they require care) before the elderly and immunocompromised is debatable.

 

If everyone over 85 was vaccinated it would represent roughly 2% of the population. Roughly 32% of all COVID deaths have been people over 85.

Over 75 would be roughly 7% and have been over 59% of all deaths.

Over 65 would be roughly 16% and have been over 80% of all deaths.

[igor67]

I agree that it is certainly debatable, in a positive sense. I would like to think that by now we could have some very sophisticated modeling that could try and make some predictions on how effective vaccinating different groups will be on both the spread and the death toll. Realistically though even with that type of analysis there is still going to be a fair bit of room for values to enter the conversation. I believe the Stanford health system had briefly come up with an algorithm for distributing the vaccine, and ran into a huge out cry because almost none of the vaccines were going to front line doctors and nurses. It's good to recognize that this is a challenging process with many factors and almost certainly room for reasonable people to make different judgments.

[LouisEly]

Sure. The only problem with that is giving the vaccine to healthy 28 year old teachers before 1A is even close to being completed. Having teachers being included in 1B is debatable to begin with, but including them as de facto 1A population is another story.

Not all teachers are healthy 28-year-olds. Many teachers have underlying health conditions that put them at an increased risk of serious infection.

 

Wisconsin has 700,000 people age 65 and older, and less than 58,000 teachers. Vaccinating teachers isn't going to pose any significant delays in vaccinating people 65+.

[Machu Peach]

Not all teachers are healthy 28-year-olds. Many teachers have underlying health conditions that put them at an increased risk of serious infection.

 

Wisconsin has 700,000 people age 65 and older, and less than 58,000 teachers. Vaccinating teachers isn't going to pose any significant delays in vaccinating people 65+.

Why would teachers get their own category? First responders, grocery store clerks, gas station attendants, construction workers, city workers, bus drivers, people who work in meat processing (or any sort of food prep), truck drivers, servers, clinical researchers, warehouse workers, etc... are all at the same level (or more) of risk.

 

I don't understand this logic. It's like saying

"Not all people born on May 8th 1990 (or whatever random characteristic) are healthy 28-year-olds. Many people born on May 8th 1990 have underlying health conditions that put them at an increased risk of serious infection.

 

"Wisconsin has 700,000 people age 65 and older, and less than 300 people born on May 8th 1990. Vaccinating people born on May 8th 1990 isn't going to pose any significant delays in vaccinating people 65+."

[igor67]

Category 1B is fairly broad with including many types of front line workers and 75+ adults.

 

The CDC presentation here is fairly clear that it was a deliberate choice to balance other societal factors and life savings

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf

 

It appears that they also did some modeling of different scenarios, but did not include the data. There summary suggests that there weren't big differences, but it is a little disappointing they didn't include the data. Part of the reason it would seem there isn't a huge difference is that infection rates tend to be higher in younger adults so it partially makes up the mortality difference.

[jerichoholicninja]

Teachers getting vaccine before the elderly, that was predictable.

 

Well, yeah. Many state legislatures and the outgoing administration haven't hid the fact that they consider in-person school an extremely high priority.

 

https://www.nbc26.com/news/coronavirus/janesville-teachers-to-receive-vaccine-ahead-of-schedule

 

If this is in reference to Janesville, it looks like they went rogue and are going against state protocol for vaccine rollout. And it seems like Evers has thrown his hands in the air and said there's nothing he can do to stop it. Even thought it won't happen for almost a week.

[LouisEly]

Not all teachers are healthy 28-year-olds. Many teachers have underlying health conditions that put them at an increased risk of serious infection.

 

Wisconsin has 700,000 people age 65 and older, and less than 58,000 teachers. Vaccinating teachers isn't going to pose any significant delays in vaccinating people 65+.

Why would teachers get their own category? First responders, grocery store clerks, gas station attendants, construction workers, city workers, bus drivers, people who work in meat processing (or any sort of food prep), truck drivers, servers, clinical researchers, warehouse workers, etc... are all at the same level (or more) of risk.

 

I don't understand this logic. It's like saying

"Not all people born on May 8th 1990 (or whatever random characteristic) are healthy 28-year-olds. Many people born on May 8th 1990 have underlying health conditions that put them at an increased risk of serious infection.

 

"Wisconsin has 700,000 people age 65 and older, and less than 300 people born on May 8th 1990. Vaccinating people born on May 8th 1990 isn't going to pose any significant delays in vaccinating people 65+."

 

First, what I said was in response to another poster who appeared to suggest that all teachers are healthy 28-year-olds.

 

Second, of those occupations that you list, I would only put grocery store clerks and bus drivers in the same category as teachers. Teachers are in a relatively small classroom with 30-35 students. Unless things have changed since I was in school, teachers don't teach every single subject - most students have multiple teachers during the day (phys ed, music, art, maybe a different teacher for math/science than English, and who's monitoring the lunchroom?), so there are multiple classrooms of 30-35 students they interact with during the day. Those students go home to where they are exposed to whomever their 1.5 parents (half come from single-parent homes, half from 2-parent homes) are exposed to and whoever their 1.5 siblings are exposed to, leaving teachers exposed directly or indirectly to hundreds of people daily.

 

I would not put first responders (who should be a priority over teachers), gas station attendants (don't most people pay at the pump with a credit card?), construction workers (aren't most of them outside anyway, and how many are working on any one job?), city workers (some, maybe, but not most), meat processors (lots of people in the factory, but not in a small enclosed room like teachers - they're spread out over a lot more square feet), truck drivers (how many people do they actually come in contact with?), servers (indoor dining is banned where I live, and most places have limited capacity), clinical researchers, or warehouse workers (see: meat processors) as people who are directly or indirectly exposed to nearly as many people as teachers are.

[logan82]

I can only speak for our district, but school has changed a bit for this year. Students are all in cohorts. Classes are 15-20 tops. Kids are only in class 2 days a week. Either Monday and Tuesday or Thursday and Friday. Kids stay in the same room all day even for lunch.