COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[LouisEly]

If you'd have done this same type of thing 6-8 weeks ago (maybe even longer now with how long its been) Sweden should have been in the top 5. The last several weeks have really turned things for them. I'm not aware of anything specific they did which led to it. But it seems the long game could end up playing out well.

In Sweden, it's finally warm enough for people to be spending lots of time outdoors.

 

In Spain, it's finally warm enough for people to go back indoors.

 

It's not about humidity, it's about confined spaces without air filtration.

[bani1717]

Regarding the impact of summer on the virus, there was some info that came out in April that showed some promise. Specifically, UV light and humidity can more quickly kill virus particles suspended in the air. Of course, that was shared in the same press briefing when Trump followed up by suggesting that injecting light or disinfectants could cure the virus, so the actual science part was overshadowed in all the media reporting on it. But the actual scientific part of that April 23 briefing was pretty fascinating.

 

The following is a summary from Forbes:

Bill Bryan, undersecretary for Science and Technology at the Director of Homeland Security shared “emerging” findings that increases in humidity and ultraviolet rays as well as common disinfectants like bleach kill the virus on nonporous surfaces and in the air faster, emphasizing they were “ongoing” studies.

[CheezWizHed]

That's one of the reasons it didn't make sense to me. "This isn't the flu" was an early mantra, there was all kinds of info (some incorrect) that the spread was way different than flu. It didn't sound like anything based in reality, just wishful thinking. That and it was thriving in 70+ temps in Iran.

 

Two points that I'll make again

- Humidity, not heat.

- Both are viruses with the potential to have similar weaknesses

 

Neither came to be true. But that is the "logic" that was being used in the absence of evidence when we were learning what COVID was and how it compared to the flu.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah, illogical was not a good word choice, it was logical, but it was being stated as fact by some when it was a guess.

[homer]

I think the issue is that sun/heat is "bad" for the virus but you need to be out in it to have an impact and that won't matter much in areas where it's too hot to be outside or in winter when it's too cold which is why ventilation becomes so important. Spekaing of which...

 

Another good article on ventilation:

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/05/ventilation-part-of-school-reopening-conversation/

 

I don't know if there's a Kahneman heuristic for "first thing you hear is the only thing that sticks" but it seems like that's the case for some people for either wearing a mask and or wanting to disinfect all surfaces every two hours.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This is one of the things that concerns me about the whole school thing. There is one group of people that seems to acknowledge the likelihood of positive cases at school and is taking that on. Then there is another group that seems to assume it's perfectly "safe," and that the expectation is the risk of transmission in school is low to nonexistent. I almost wish the schools would come out and just say that there is a good chance your child will get COVID at school, but if they do that, they will likely face a mountain of public pressure to close. The school administrations are in a terrible position. There will be pitchforks in many places if they close, and a whole lot of shaming the instant there is a case. I dunno what their answer is.

[tmwiese55]

Agree it's a very tough problem. Trying to look at as objectively as possible(and some of the more rural area talk we had here), I come out thinking how it could make sense to let the rural areas be open, especially for younger kids that need in person more. And the cities to be remote. But, then you get into the already (on average) more disadvantaged students getting a further disadvantage. Very tough, really doesn't seem to be a win win answer. But that overall thought is why I thought it would make sense for Evers not to do a statewide remote order, which would just lead to a big political fight, since he knows the two major cities are already remote. At least I think MKE is, I guess I'm not 100% on that. Plus, WI overall numbers aren't crazy so maybe another month if people listen could bring them further down. I'm generally on the side of getting ahead of a problem before it blows up, but in a tough situation like this you might have to try to push it a bit and see what happens.

 

Another issue I've been told by teachers in areas doing onsite is the current policy plan is that if a kid gets covid, has symptoms for it, etc the plan is essentially to shut down for several days. To the best of my memory that would be that kids class only, not whole school. So essentially any kid that gets a cold would trigger this protocol. If that remains in place (and adhered to) you might as well just go remote right away.

[LouisEly]

I don't know if there's a Kahneman heuristic for "first thing you hear is the only thing that sticks" but it seems like that's the case for some people for either wearing a mask and or wanting to disinfect all surfaces every two hours.

Yes, there is - it's called "anchoring". One of the fundamental cognitive heuristics.

 

There is also a bit of confirmation, action, affect, availability, cognitive fluency, and loss aversion heuristics in there as well.

[PeaveyFury]

So essentially any kid that gets a cold would trigger this protocol. If that remains in place (and adhered to) you might as well just go remote right away.

 

Yep. It's this problem that will completely destroy any real possibility of legitimate in-person instruction for any extended length of time.

 

I think you'll see that most districts that start with 'hybrid' virtual/in-person plans initially will fold to completely virtual by the time the cold and flu season starts, and probably will stay that way well into 2021. The districts that are starting completely virtual with language of 'until the end of the first quarter' or something like that will be removing that qualifier shortly into the school year, I'd think.

[tmwiese55]

Thanks for the article on ventilation. Interesting and makes sense.

 

Something to remember as people try to spin the surface thing as 'see the experts were wrong' is that at the time the logic was out of not knowing. so be cautious since we don't know. And it's not like it doesn't spread on surfaces, it's just not the primary or as bad as that initial push made it out to be. But at the time, before anything was known it was something we could do to help. But I agree with what he's saying in that now some of it is kind of to show you're doing something, since that can be seen being done. And it's not like it shouldn't be done, it's just the air issues should be getting priority.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm skeptical that the citizenry is going to just go along with another mass closure. When (not if) someone gets a cold, and the school orders a classroom closed for two weeks, the parents are going to flip out. Especially in my neck of the woods.

 

Daycare isn't getting enough publicity. We attend two different daycares, they've been full of the usual boogers and such all summer, only started wearing masks last week, and there hasn't been any incident or closure. I know one in town just closed because they had a confirmed covid case. The schools, while they are in a different stratosphere...I'm just not seeing them closing for a runny nose. Half the parents here work in the same factory, they can't just turn on laptops and keep money coming in.

[stoutdude04]

I'm skeptical that the citizenry is going to just go along with another mass closure. When (not if) someone gets a cold, and the school orders a classroom closed for two weeks, the parents are going to flip out. Especially in my neck of the woods.

 

Daycare isn't getting enough publicity. We attend two different daycares, they've been full of the usual boogers and such all summer, only started wearing masks last week, and there hasn't been any incident or closure. I know one in town just closed because they had a confirmed covid case. The schools, while they are in a different stratosphere...I'm just not seeing them closing for a runny nose. Half the parents here work in the same factory, they can't just turn on laptops and keep money coming in.

 

I dont think itll close for a cold or runny nose, but I would be shocked if they didnt close when there is a confirmed case of covid.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, it'll be a big fight when they do it. So you need to get ahead of it now in some way and change that procedure. Knowing no one wants another hard shutdown is the simple reason to wear masks. Nobody wants shutdown, this is something we can do/try that really isn't difficult that will hopefully keep businesses open. Yet...

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm skeptical that the citizenry is going to just go along with another mass closure. When (not if) someone gets a cold, and the school orders a classroom closed for two weeks, the parents are going to flip out. Especially in my neck of the woods.

 

Daycare isn't getting enough publicity. We attend two different daycares, they've been full of the usual boogers and such all summer, only started wearing masks last week, and there hasn't been any incident or closure. I know one in town just closed because they had a confirmed covid case. The schools, while they are in a different stratosphere...I'm just not seeing them closing for a runny nose. Half the parents here work in the same factory, they can't just turn on laptops and keep money coming in.

 

I dont think itll close for a cold or runny nose, but I would be shocked if they didnt close when there is a confirmed case of covid.

 

I assume most places have already declared their covid policy, mine has. It's the aforementioned closure of the class (everyone exposed to the kid) for I believe a 2-week minimum. But a random cold? That's never going to fly here. People will lose their minds. But this definitely a less...blue area, I guess.

[tmwiese55]

The ones I've been told is that symptoms count, which of course could end up as standard cold. It's also logical because it still takes days to get tests back so you'd potentially have them mixing it up for days before you know. Of course not sure the phrasing in your district. But yea it'll be a fight so you have to come up with something else. And the schools I'm talking about are also very red areas.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The list of covid symptoms is seemingly endless now. It encompasses stuff like memory fog, headache, fatigue, etc. There's zero point to wasting anybody's time if that is closing down school.

[CheezWizHed]

Thanks for the article on ventilation. Interesting and makes sense.

 

Something to remember as people try to spin the surface thing as 'see the experts were wrong' is that at the time the logic was out of not knowing. so be cautious since we don't know. And it's not like it doesn't spread on surfaces, it's just not the primary or as bad as that initial push made it out to be. But at the time, before anything was known it was something we could do to help. But I agree with what he's saying in that now some of it is kind of to show you're doing something, since that can be seen being done. And it's not like it shouldn't be done, it's just the air issues should be getting priority.

 

tmwiese55 - this isn't directed at you, but your comment about experts got me thinking.

 

Just the term "Experts" is horribly misunderstood, too. Of course experts will be wrong at times. We are dealing with something new and we are learning about it. The term "practicing" medicine is intentional as people continue to learn more and more.

 

But people like to misuse the "expert" to make their strawman argument. "Look at this expert here - they agree with me and therefore MUST be right!" Or "I believe in science!" is a great argument killer. As if others don't? History is full of scientists that were wrong as they were learning about new information. But continue to work to learn and improve. So yes, scientists/doctors can be both experts and wrong. But any good scientist/doctor will continue to study and work to get it right and eventually solve the problem. Its a process and we are on a journey to find the right solution.

 

I try to keep my ears and eyes open to see multiple sources instead of relying too much on any one source and try to keep central to the issues. Do I like wearing a mask? no Will I wear a mask? Yes. Do I think masks help? Probably, but not fully convinced. Do I need to beat the drum about my rights? No. I'm not being "oppressed", we are just in the process if figuring it out.

 

/rant

[tmwiese55]

Well masks have been worn in medical for like a 100 years, it's fairly overwhelming that it helps. The asian countries that have dealt with this for years go right to masks right away. To what extent it helps, yea I'm sure that's debatable. But there is no way it can hurt to try. But even pre covid, who would've said yes to their doctor/surgeon working on them without a mask, and vice versa.

 

To that overall topic though is another thing that's fogging stuff up. In most scientific/medical research situations this stuff is all done behind the scenes. So things that end up being incorrect get found out, clarified, then new things are tested, tweaks are experimented on, etc. Then after a long process it comes out something that is fairly sound, reviewed, large samples, tested by several groups, etc. In the current thing, the public is seeing some of the trial/error aspects in real time because everyone wants info/answer right now!! And then people who've dedicated their lives to science and helping people get called idiots, bias, and/or in a conspiracy. It's really frustrating to watch.

[PeaveyFury]

The list of covid symptoms is seemingly endless now. It encompasses stuff like memory fog, headache, fatigue, etc. There's zero point to wasting anybody's time if that is closing down school.

 

That was exactly my point.

 

You don't know whether it's a cold or whether it's COVID until it's too late, so you have to shut it down as a precaution until you're certain it's not COVID. As such, what percentage of classes will be shut down as a result of a symptom come November? 70%? More? At that point, the school will just be better off shutting down anyway...

[tmwiese55]

If we had a daily test everyone could do in the morning, similar to a thermometer, it would go such a long way in killing this thing and of just having things open/normalish in general. I remember something 5ish weeks ago on promising signs on something like that, an in home test that would get results in 15 mins and can be used over and over. It passed some level of testing back then, haven't heard since.

 

Or even if we just had a national testing plan after 5 months where you'd get results within a day. So that said child in this scenario would go get tested that day and you'd know the next day if they had it.

[homer]

The mask absolutely helps prevent the spread of larger droplets. The reason we keep 6 feet apart is because that's the range of the larger droplets before gravity takes over. But obviously it's hard to stay socially distanced 100% of the time so the mask mitigates the risk even more. Also, from what I've read the amount of virus you inhale may affect the severity of the illness. So just taking the large droplets out of the equation could potentially prevent a serious illness or maybe hospitalization.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The list of covid symptoms is seemingly endless now. It encompasses stuff like memory fog, headache, fatigue, etc. There's zero point to wasting anybody's time if that is closing down school.

 

That was exactly my point.

 

You don't know whether it's a cold or whether it's COVID until it's too late, so you have to shut it down as a precaution until you're certain it's not COVID. As such, what percentage of classes will be shut down as a result of a symptom come November? 70%? More? At that point, the school will just be better off shutting down anyway...

 

Right, but my point is that there has been way too much work put into this for closing to be that easy. There are districts that have contracted survey companies to gather data on the community pulse, all kinds of pamphlets, etc. It makes no sense to do all that if school is closing for a runny nose. There's dumb, and there's just completely implausible, and this would be latter.

 

In our survey, 2% of parents supported an outright closure and mandatory virtual learning. At our last school board meeting, the only dissent was a lawyer from the teachers union. After he spoke, three teachers got up and said their piece about why we need to open. I just can't believe there's anybody out there who thinks there is any chance of getting through a day without one of those symptoms. The only thing I've seen from the school is that once there is an official case of COVID, that students cohort is shut down for 2 weeks.

 

I think there is an expectation that parents keep their kids home this year with mild anything, which is in contrast to years past, where they've outright said to send your kid to school with the sniffles.

[PeaveyFury]

In our survey, 2% of parents supported an outright closure and mandatory virtual learning.

 

I'm not surprised by that at all. But there's going to be an astounding difference between what actually possible/realistic vs. what such a survey suggests. 98% of men would date Heidi Klum, and then there's what's actually possible...

 

I'd think what's going to be really important for parents in the end is certainty and schedule dependability. The in-person or 'hybrid' model for reopening in this environment can only provide the opposite for the reasons outlined previously.

 

If districts had outlined a concrete plan this summer, parents would have been given weeks if not months to at least come up with some sort of feasible contingency. But what is going to happen is the opposite- districts that try to re-open will likely fail and have even more angry parents when in-person instruction is cancelled 8-12 weeks into the year following who knows how many 'two-week quarantine' cancellations.

[tmwiese55]

Or if the recently discussed symptoms/positive case happens then it's last minute scrambling by parents. Whereas if you don't come up with a different strategy on that the parents would be better off to go remote right away so they can work out a plan.

 

Really the only thing I can come up with is a way for schools to test and get quick results. Otherwise you have the issue pointed out how you'll be mixing them together for days when someone has it or is waiting for the test to come back. You hear about these rapid response tests. I know hospitals have them. But that would require a coordinate plan/program from the government and obviously that's not going to happen if we haven't in 5 months.

[stoutdude04]

The student that filmed the halls of a Geoegia school where no one had masks or social distancing has been suspended, according to her mother. Another student 'filmed' the principal speaking over the loud speaker saying there will be consequences if students post things on social media if it shows the school in a negative light.

 

What an absolute joke.