COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[adambr2]

I have seen quite a few reports and studies that believe we have probably seen somewhere in the neighborhood of 100mil infections by now.

 

Even if that huge number is true, that is still only roughly 30% of the US population. To achieve effective herd immunity, the thresholds I've seen are in the 70-75% range.

 

Well, if we're truly at 14M known cases and 75-100M actual total cases, and we're averaging 150-200K new cases per day, that would likely be around 1M actual new cases per day and get us to around the 70-75% range around when April when the vaccine is likely to be widely available.

[PeaveyFury]

Guys, we literally had this exact discussion yesterday on the previous page of this thread. Most estimates suggest 20%-ish, which would be about 60 million. There's extreme variance by geographic location, though.

[adambr2]

60M would be about 20%. If that's the correct number I don't think we'll hit 70% by the time we have a widely available vaccine but 50% is likely. It's simply spreading too fast to contain.

 

Maybe the vaccine will be here and widely available much more quickly than I expect. The entire vaccine process has been much more expedited than I could have ever imagined.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hours after encouraging Denver residents to avoid Thanksgiving travel, the city's mayor office confirmed he is flying to Mississippi to spend the holiday with his daughter and wife, according to his office.

 

...

 

Earlier this month, California Gov. Gavin Newsom received backlash after he and his wife attended a birthday party at the French Laundry restaurant with a dozen others from several different households despite state health guidelines recommending against such gatherings amid a surge in Covid-19 infections.

 

...

 

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo canceled his plans after facing criticism for planning to have a holiday meal with his 86-year-old mother and two of his daughters amid escalating numbers of Covid-19 cases.

The governor had previously warned New Yorkers who plan on holding Thanksgiving celebrations as usual that it was dangerous given that the virus can spread in large indoor gatherings.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/25/us/denver-mayor-thanksgiving-plans-trnd/index.html

 

What is the saying? Rules for thee but not for me.

 

San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo appears to have broken health protocols in celebrating Thanksgiving with family members outside of his own household.

 

The NBC Bay Area Investigative Unit has learned Liccardo celebrated with his elderly parents at their Saratoga home with an unknown number of other guests. While the mayor’s staff did confirm the dinner took place, they have not disclosed how many other people attended, how many different households were present, and whether any of those in attendance wore masks while not eating.

 

“This is a private event – not public,” said Jim Reed, Liccardo’s Chief of Staff. “We are going to redraw the line between what is personal and what is public because that line has become blurred.”

 

...

 

The mayor’s press team, when questioned by the Investigative Unit about the mayor's Thanksgiving plans, initially said Liccardo was marking the holiday by “staying home” with his immediate family. The day after Thanksgiving, however, the mayor's office notified the NBC Bay Area Investigative Unit that a spokesperson “misspoke” and explained that Liccardo spent the holiday with family at his parents’ home.

 

Last week, Liccardo urged his more than 33,000 Twitter followers to cancel "big gatherings this year" and noted the importance of following safety protocols, even with friends and family.

 

"Cases are spiking," he wrote. "We're letting our guard (and masks) down with family and friends."

 

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/san-jose-mayor-ignored-health-protocols-in-joining-parents-others-for-holiday-celebration/2411207/

 

Do all these public figures, politicians, health experts, etc. really grasp what they're doing when they warn and condemn people for going to a restaurant or gathering with their families but then go and do the same thing themselves? Is it that they're oblivious, that they think they're above the rules, or that they don't believe a word of what they're preaching?

[MrTPlush]

We would still need the vaccine to get back to normal as we don't know how long immunity will last after you get it.

 

Thankfully we haven't had any huge problems with reinfections so it seems one would have a good chunk of time after getting it before they get it again.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Thankfully we haven't had any huge problems with reinfections so it seems one would have a good chunk of time after getting it before they get it again.

 

The answer to that could be asymptomatic reinfection - no problem with that for them individually, but they could potentially still infect other people who have yet to come into contact with the virus/been vaccinated. To this point there is very limited data proving/disproving that possibility because people who have already suffered through a confirmed symptomatic COVID infection have no reason to get tested again unless they get physically sick again. It is interesting that none of the public figures (NFL coaches, athletes, politicians, etc) who may have gotten COVID this spring have had a documented reinfection despite very frequent testing without needing to display symptoms...

 

What really mystifies me is seemingly a lack of a sustained antibody testing study to help answer these questions...over time we'll know but one would think it should have been easy enough to grab a batch of confirmed cases this spring, summer, or even now and offer them an incentive to participate with routine antibody tests to see how long they remain in the immune system, and also see if there is prolonged immunity to future symptomatic response to subsequent COVID infections even in the absence of active antibodies. I know the vaccine trials are planning to track this information over the next couple of years, but they could have started gathering this data months earlier than when the vaccine trials really ramped up.

 

There have been isolated studies in various places around the globe that point to ~a couple months of seroprevalence in infected patients, followed by asymptomatic reinfection - that points to a reason why population-wide seroprevalence seemingly isn't shown to be much higher than 20-30% even in hard hit areas as it's not a totally cumulative factor. Nothing definitive, though.

[Machu Peach]

Thankfully we haven't had any huge problems with reinfections so it seems one would have a good chunk of time after getting it before they get it again.

 

The answer to that could be asymptomatic reinfection - no problem with that for them individually, but they could potentially still infect other people who have yet to come into contact with the virus/been vaccinated. To this point there is very limited data proving/disproving that possibility because people who have already suffered through a confirmed symptomatic COVID infection have no reason to get tested again unless they get physically sick again.

Here's a study I posted last week screening almost 10 million people from Wuhan that looks at that. 107 asymptomatic cases out of the 34,424 previously infected people. They also note that they did not see a single case of asymptotic spread to close contacts in either the previously infected or the no known previous infection groups.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

[LouisEly]

I think vaccine requirements are a pipe dream. I just do not see that happening in this country. There will be so much vocal opposition to that sort of thing. Lawsuits up the wazoo.

 

I think a private business could require it and have the law on their side.

Qantas has already said they will require it for international flights:

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/qantas-coronavirus-vaccination-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

[LouisEly]

https://coronavirus.uwhealth.org/an-open-letter-to-the-people-of-wisconsin/

 

"But the virus is here now and the vaccines are not."

[dpapo]

The UK has approved the use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for use. The plan is to start immunisations next week.

"The first 800,000 doses will be available in the UK from next week, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said."

 

I currently live in the UK, however I probably will just miss being able to get the Pfizer vaccine and will have to wait for whatever vaccine is approved for use sometime next year. The UK has only ordered 40 million doses that will cover 20 million people. If they had ordered an extra 10 million that probably would have covered my age group. Best guess is that I will end up getting the Oxford vaccine sometime next year if the Oxford Astrazeneca vaccine gets approved before the end of the year.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696

[Fear The Chorizo]

Thankfully we haven't had any huge problems with reinfections so it seems one would have a good chunk of time after getting it before they get it again.

 

The answer to that could be asymptomatic reinfection - no problem with that for them individually, but they could potentially still infect other people who have yet to come into contact with the virus/been vaccinated. To this point there is very limited data proving/disproving that possibility because people who have already suffered through a confirmed symptomatic COVID infection have no reason to get tested again unless they get physically sick again.

Here's a study I posted last week screening almost 10 million people from Wuhan that looks at that. 107 asymptomatic cases out of the 34,424 previously infected people. They also note that they did not see a single case of asymptotic spread to close contacts in either the previously infected or the no known previous infection groups.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

 

That's all good news, but also important to note two things:

 

1 - This was performed in China, so any COVID-related data should be taken with a grain of salt....They're still reporting less than 5,000 people dead in a country of ~1.5 billion from it and refuse to allow for a reasonable inquiry to the origins of this virus.

 

2 - While this data set is encouraging, far as I can tell the sampling was done back in mid-May through early June. That's only a couple months after that area was at its initial peak, and the testing occurred only about 1-2 months after they had a punitive lockdown of that entire province - meaning the community presence of COVID at high enough viral loads was next to zero and initially infected people were very likely to still have active antibodies circulating in their immune systems. For the purpose of determining a better understanding of how long a vaccine dose would be effective, I'd like to see a similar study performed in either New York or Paris right now, or in a place like Houston late in the spring before any widespread vaccinations take place - to actually try and quantify the rate of reinfection on previously infected people closer to 1 year from localized peaks where the virus is still circulating and likely rebounding in the community among people who weren't infected with it the first time around.

[JosephC]

Hours after encouraging Denver residents to avoid Thanksgiving travel, the city's mayor office confirmed he is flying to Mississippi to spend the holiday with his daughter and wife, according to his office.

 

...

 

Earlier this month, California Gov. Gavin Newsom received backlash after he and his wife attended a birthday party at the French Laundry restaurant with a dozen others from several different households despite state health guidelines recommending against such gatherings amid a surge in Covid-19 infections.

 

...

 

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo canceled his plans after facing criticism for planning to have a holiday meal with his 86-year-old mother and two of his daughters amid escalating numbers of Covid-19 cases.

The governor had previously warned New Yorkers who plan on holding Thanksgiving celebrations as usual that it was dangerous given that the virus can spread in large indoor gatherings.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/25/us/denver-mayor-thanksgiving-plans-trnd/index.html

 

What is the saying? Rules for thee but not for me.

 

San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo appears to have broken health protocols in celebrating Thanksgiving with family members outside of his own household.

 

The NBC Bay Area Investigative Unit has learned Liccardo celebrated with his elderly parents at their Saratoga home with an unknown number of other guests. While the mayor’s staff did confirm the dinner took place, they have not disclosed how many other people attended, how many different households were present, and whether any of those in attendance wore masks while not eating.

 

“This is a private event – not public,” said Jim Reed, Liccardo’s Chief of Staff. “We are going to redraw the line between what is personal and what is public because that line has become blurred.”

 

...

 

The mayor’s press team, when questioned by the Investigative Unit about the mayor's Thanksgiving plans, initially said Liccardo was marking the holiday by “staying home” with his immediate family. The day after Thanksgiving, however, the mayor's office notified the NBC Bay Area Investigative Unit that a spokesperson “misspoke” and explained that Liccardo spent the holiday with family at his parents’ home.

 

Last week, Liccardo urged his more than 33,000 Twitter followers to cancel "big gatherings this year" and noted the importance of following safety protocols, even with friends and family.

 

"Cases are spiking," he wrote. "We're letting our guard (and masks) down with family and friends."

 

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/san-jose-mayor-ignored-health-protocols-in-joining-parents-others-for-holiday-celebration/2411207/

 

Do all these public figures, politicians, health experts, etc. really grasp what they're doing when they warn and condemn people for going to a restaurant or gathering with their families but then go and do the same thing themselves? Is it that they're oblivious, that they think they're above the rules, or that they don't believe a word of what they're preaching?

 

I don't think they believe a word of what they are preaching. If they considered this to be a true risk to the health of them and their families, they would abide by their own orders. Since they don't, there is no reason to believe that they really consider this to be any significant risk to them.

 

But this has been pretty obvious from day one in Wisconsin and hammered home even further with the mask order-

https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EmO01-SeptFaceCoverings.pdf

See #4 on page 3.

 

For the record, my family did not have a Thanksgiving get-together and have already cancelled all Christmas plans. However, I drive past 2 steakhouses when going home from work. When it gets to Thursday/Friday night, those parking lots are jammed. It's pretty infuriating that "the powers that be" work as hard as they can to destroy all family events, but yet seemingly have no problems with "mass gatherings" that benefit BUSINESS. Is there really a greater chance of me catching COVID-19 and passing it along to others when sitting in a room with 15 relatives versus sitting in a steakhouse with 150 strangers? I consider holiday events to be far more "essential" than a night out at the steakhouse, but apparently "the powers that be" completely disagree with that.

 

The American public sure has been duped from day one on this one.

 

Government operations rule #1 - Never let a good crisis go to waste!

[PeaveyFury]

It's pretty infuriating that "the powers that be" work as hard as they can to destroy all family events, but yet seemingly have no problems with "mass gatherings" that benefit BUSINESS.

 

As the reason for this is discrepancy likely obvious to both you and anyone residing in the state of Wisconsin and is inherently political, I'd remind people to tread carefully where politics are involved here.

[Machu Peach]

For the purpose of determining a better understanding of how long a vaccine dose would be effective, I'd like to see a similar study...

I see, you're attempting to use duration of immunity via infection to predict duration of immune via vaccination. That would not work in this situation. The type of immunity generated by the candidate vaccines (either mRNA or rAd) is going to be very different than the type generated by an infection. One can certainly learn things from comparing immunity via infection to immunity via mRNA or rAd vaccination, but duration of protection (particularly when the correlates of protection are poorly understood) is not one of those things.

[Fear The Chorizo]

For the purpose of determining a better understanding of how long a vaccine dose would be effective, I'd like to see a similar study...

I see, you're attempting to use duration of immunity via infection to predict duration of immune via vaccination. That would not work in this situation. The type of immunity generated by the candidate vaccines (either mRNA or rAd) is going to be very different than the type generated by an infection. One can certainly learn things from comparing immunity via infection to immunity via mRNA or rAd vaccination, but duration of protection (particularly when the correlates of protection are poorly understood) is not one of those things.

 

Gathering that type of information, IMO, is invaluable regardless of how much it helps with predicting the length of a vaccine's effectiveness. I should have been more clear in stating what I'm interested in seeing is the comparative immunity over time between vaccines and natural immunity to symptomatic response via a prior infection - not gathering this data now prior to widespread vaccinations winds up ruining the opportunity for that type of research. I think there's a good likelihood with this virus that once you've been infected/exposed and recovered, OR been vaccinated, any future infections will lead to a much more diminished percentage of cases resulting in significant symptomatic response - even among elderly/immunocompromised. If that's the case then the vaccine push should be focused towards people who haven't yet been infected once medical personnel and elderly/immunocompromised groups are vaccinated. At minimum it would help determine how widespread distribution of effective vaccines would need to be across the globe to effectively neuter COVID-19 - particularly in developing countries that most likely will have had SARS-COV-2 infect a majority of the populations prior to them getting a vaccine supply. I'm confident developed countries will have sufficient vaccine supply to temporarily halt large numbers of symptomatic COVID cases over the next year, but not for developing/isolated parts of the world.

 

The issue I see with big Pharma actually wanting to push for this type of data gathering is the potential for there to only be a 1-time need for a vaccine and/or confirmed COVID case for people, which severely diminishes their longterm market for it in the developed world. For public health that's a great thing, for big Pharma's bottom line it isn't.

[jerichoholicninja]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/03/austin-mayor-cabo-coronavirus/

 

“We need to stay home if you can,” Mayor Steve Adler (D) said in a Nov. 9 video. “We need to try to keep those numbers down. This is not the time to relax.”

 

Days before he offered that warning, Adler had hosted his daughter’s wedding at an Austin hotel with about 20 guests. Then, he and eight wedding guests took a private jet to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, where they stayed together in a timeshare.

 

All these people who have been doing the very same things they're condemning the general public for doing need to be removed. I've made clear I generally don't care one way or another how people are living their lives during the pandemic but the hypocrisy needs to be called out and those people need to be held accountable.

[PeaveyFury]

those people need to be held accountable.

 

Do you have a suggestion as to how?

[jerichoholicninja]

those people need to be held accountable.

 

Do you have a suggestion as to how?

 

Remove them from their positions as I said. If you want to make the rules you need to live by those rules as well. Unfortunately, that describes about 99% of those in government so it will never happen.

[homer]

those people need to be held accountable.

 

Do you have a suggestion as to how?

 

Remove them from their positions as I said. If you want to make the rules you need to live by those rules as well. Unfortunately, that describes about 99% of those in government so it will never happen.

 

Well this guy is out of a job come January so it can be done:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/pompeo-coronavirus-holiday-parties/2020/12/02/9a06d0a6-3421-11eb-afe6-e4dbee9689f8_story.html

[jerichoholicninja]

Well this guy is out of a job come January so it can be done:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/pompeo-coronavirus-holiday-parties/2020/12/02/9a06d0a6-3421-11eb-afe6-e4dbee9689f8_story.html

 

Has he ever said that people shouldn't have parties? I really don't know. If he has, then he's a turd person. If not, then he's not a hypocrite and that's my problem with these people. If you tell me that getting together with my family for Thanksgiving is a danger to myself and others and I should not do it for the greater good of society but then you go ahead and do it yourself you've put yourself above everyone else and decided that rules don't apply to you. Or you don't believe a word you're saying and are only saying it for personal or political gains. Either one is a bad look but is really just par for the course for what we have for "leaders" right now.

[TURBO]

Just started reading this article, full of good information, and just how badly China handled the virus...

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuhan-china-covid-intl/index.html

[owbc]

Nobody besides healthcare workers actually wants people to lockdown. It's all lip service. Whole industries are barely scraping by and are desperate for any business they can get.

 

The marketing emails from all of the travel companies have been begging me to book a winter getaway. The safety protocols are emphasized. There are no domestic travel restrictions other than soft advisories and guidelines. And everything is absurdly cheap.

 

Did my wife and I snap and book a vacation? Yep. Do we feel bad about it? Sort of...but not really.

[MrTPlush]

Where is the cheap vacation...asking for a friend...

[homer]

Where is the cheap vacation...asking for a friend...

 

Hawaii:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/business/hawaii-free-trip-remote-workers-trnd/index.html

[MrTPlush]

Where is the cheap vacation...asking for a friend...

 

Hawaii:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/business/hawaii-free-trip-remote-workers-trnd/index.html

 

Ooof, I visited Hawaii once. Super cool, but definitely want nothing to do with living there! Haha