COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[jerichoholicninja]

I imagine COVID cases are really going to skyrocket in the coming months with all the news about the vaccines. I can see millions of people who upon hearing the word vaccine assume that it's now safe to go about business as usual pre-COVID. Of course that will then lead people to say that the vaccine doesn't work or secretly gives you COVID like those types of people have been saying since the beginning.

 

Between Safe at Home, socially distancing, masks, an election, and now a vaccine - people have lots of reasons to hate each other now. You thought 2020 was "fun"? Wait till you see what 2021 has to bring.

[jjgott]

I tend to think that the US has a structural problem with obesity. Agricultural subsidies and other pressures have made junk food cheap and plentiful. How cheap and plentiful is soda?

 

The US has knocked down smoking to a large extent. We don't have the political will to knock down obesity.

 

Look at the blowback that came when there was a campaign to try and get school kids to eat more fruits and vegetables. The kids said "healthy food tastes gross," parents gave up and sent their kids to school with a brown bag full of junk, and the school districts ended up just dropping the healthier options with food was going to waste.

[PeaveyFury]

The US is somewhere around 14 million confirmed cases via testing at the moment - simply by factoring in an order of magnitude it's very likely that 1/3 of the population has been exposed...that's not saying 1/3 currently have antibodies capable of fending off another infection, but it's saying the US already has a large percentage of its population where the virus is no longer 'novel' even before a vaccine is distributed to expedite it.

.

 

1/3 seems high vs. some of the other estimates I've seen, which suggested closer to 1/5. Are there updated estimates/assumptions out there to suggest that higher number?

[Machu Peach]

To repeat earlier information, the vaccine will not knock down COVID case counts on its own initially, and perhaps ever - its purpose is to make just about all COVID infections asymptomatic, which will help expedite the virus' spread across the general population without stressing the health system.

Where are you getting this info? I have never heard of any vaccine working this way.

[owbc]

The US is somewhere around 14 million confirmed cases via testing at the moment - simply by factoring in an order of magnitude it's very likely that 1/3 of the population has been exposed...that's not saying 1/3 currently have antibodies capable of fending off another infection, but it's saying the US already has a large percentage of its population where the virus is no longer 'novel' even before a vaccine is distributed to expedite it.

.

 

1/3 seems high vs. some of the other estimates I've seen, which suggested closer to 1/5. Are there updated estimates/assumptions out there to suggest that higher number?

 

There is a ton of geographic variability. Many cities are probably closer to 1 in 10 or 1 in 20, and that where most of the population is. Spots that locked down early like the big cities on the west coast have never really had that many cases, even when you account for the early unconfirmed ones in March.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think vaccine requirements are a pipe dream. I just do not see that happening in this country. There will be so much vocal opposition to that sort of thing. Lawsuits up the wazoo.

[Machu Peach]

The US is somewhere around 14 million confirmed cases via testing at the moment - simply by factoring in an order of magnitude it's very likely that 1/3 of the population has been exposed...that's not saying 1/3 currently have antibodies capable of fending off another infection, but it's saying the US already has a large percentage of its population where the virus is no longer 'novel' even before a vaccine is distributed to expedite it.

.

 

1/3 seems high vs. some of the other estimates I've seen, which suggested closer to 1/5. Are there updated estimates/assumptions out there to suggest that higher number?

Serology sampling data has shown up to 20% seroprevalence with a large degree of geographic variability. However most of those types of studies don't become publicly available for months after sample collection ends.

 

For what it's worth, I've seen that the April/May estimates put the true infection rate roughly tenfold higher than the confirmed infection rate. The October estimates were roughly twofold the confirmed infection rate.

 

Here's a link to a CDC seroprevalence tracker. It's pretty underpowered compared with the more region-specific studies, but it looks like it includes the entire US. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

[homer]

I think vaccine requirements are a pipe dream. I just do not see that happening in this country. There will be so much vocal opposition to that sort of thing. Lawsuits up the wazoo.

 

I think a private business could require it and have the law on their side.

[reillymcshane]

I think vaccine requirements are a pipe dream. I just do not see that happening in this country. There will be so much vocal opposition to that sort of thing. Lawsuits up the wazoo.

 

My wife told me she did not think you cannot require people to get Emergency Use Authorized (EUA) vaccinations. Which means no one will be able to require it for a while. I stress this was her belief - but she may be incorrect. It is something her organization is dealing with right now.

 

That said, many places require vaccinations such as the flu. The military does, as do many health care organizations.

 

My guess is that once the vaccine is not just classified as EUA, you will see places begin to require it. And by then, tens of millions of people will have had it - so opposition will be not as fierce as in the next few months (that's assuming all goes well with the vaccine).

 

Opposition is high. For many people, however, it's not that they don't want the vaccine - it's that they don't want to be in the first round of the vaccine. Which is understandable. Even if you believe it's safe, there's going to be some uneasiness for a lot of people.

[reillymcshane]

My sister-in-law's father is hopefully going to be released from the hospital in the next couple of weeks. He's been there - after getting COVID - for nearly three months. It was touch and go for a while, but he looks like he's going to make it. Pretty amazing at his age (90+). They are talking about him getting put into an assisted care facility to continue his recovery.

 

On the flip side, my same sister-in-law's niece (who I know, but haven't seen in ages) has been given a really grim assessment. She got COVID and is now on a ventilator. The doctors said it isn't looking good. Only about 40-45, but from what I understand, she has had some other health issues. Still, it's not easy to hear about.

 

Hope everyone is staying healthy.

[MrTPlush]

Opposition is high. For many people, however, it's not that they don't want the vaccine - it's that they don't want to be in the first round of the vaccine. Which is understandable. Even if you believe it's safe, there's going to be some uneasiness for a lot of people.

 

And most of the people making a fuss about this aren't first in line, second in line, and probably not even third in line to get the vaccine.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

WI public schools do not even require vaccines. I think some people are dismissing just how many people will refuse, and the fact that anti-vacc has grown in popularity in the last few decades, it's not disappearing.

 

I'd happily be the lab rat and get it this afternoon. I just have a feeling we are in for a long, drawn out hassle with getting people to get it.

 

Maybe Covid has been annoying enough to get people to give in. I'm less hopeful. Fortunately as far as international travel is concerned, other countries can do what they want we're powerless to stop it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

WI public schools do not even require vaccines. I think some people are dismissing just how many people will refuse, and the fact that anti-vacc has grown in popularity in the last few decades, it's not disappearing.

 

I'd happily be the lab rat and get it this afternoon. I just have a feeling we are in for a long, drawn out hassle with getting people to get it.

 

Maybe Covid has been annoying enough to get people to give in. I'm less hopeful. Fortunately as far as international travel is concerned, other countries can do what they want we're powerless to stop it.

 

As a Type I diabetic, I'm high risk. I have no fear of getting the vaccine, and will likely get it is soon as I am able. My wife and kids will get it as soon as they can as well. If someone chooses not to get it, as far as I'm concerned, that's on them, and I'm not going to feel super bad if they contract COVID when a vaccine could have been used to avoid it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

The CDC tested blood donations from mid-December 2019 to mid-January 2020 and found lots of samples with coronovirus antibodies. Looks like the virus was running through the west coast before it was even officially confirmed in China. A few other states too, including Wisconsin. I've said before the virus was global and out of hand before we even knew it existed and there was nothing we could do to stop it.

[homer]

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

The CDC tested blood donations from mid-December 2019 to mid-January 2020 and found lots of samples with coronovirus antibodies. Looks like the virus was running through the west coast before it was even officially confirmed in China. A few other states too, including Wisconsin. I've said before the virus was global and out of hand before we even knew it existed and there was nothing we could do to stop it.

 

 

"Despite the findings, widespread community transmission in the U.S. was unlikely until late February, the authors said."

 

We've discussed this before. There have been confirmed cases in other countries prior to Jan 1. This article is from May:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-spread-around-world-2019-study/

 

I don't think it should be a surprise that people had it in December in the US.

[owbc]

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

The CDC tested blood donations from mid-December 2019 to mid-January 2020 and found lots of samples with coronovirus antibodies. Looks like the virus was running through the west coast before it was even officially confirmed in China. A few other states too, including Wisconsin. I've said before the virus was global and out of hand before we even knew it existed and there was nothing we could do to stop it.

 

The timing is interesting but does it really matter? We already knew that it would be impossible to contain an novel airborne virus like COVID-19.

[jerichoholicninja]

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

The CDC tested blood donations from mid-December 2019 to mid-January 2020 and found lots of samples with coronovirus antibodies. Looks like the virus was running through the west coast before it was even officially confirmed in China. A few other states too, including Wisconsin. I've said before the virus was global and out of hand before we even knew it existed and there was nothing we could do to stop it.

 

 

"Despite the findings, widespread community transmission in the U.S. was unlikely until late February, the authors said."

 

I never said anything about widespread. I'm addressing the whole narrative of "why didn't we do something sooner?" Because it was far too late before we even knew it existed. The cat was way out of the bag and running around scratching and peeing on everything before we even knew there was a cat in the bag. We've seen how quickly and easily this thing spreads. All it took was those handful of people unknowingly having it and spreading it in December to another handful of people and so on.

[homer]

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

The CDC tested blood donations from mid-December 2019 to mid-January 2020 and found lots of samples with coronovirus antibodies. Looks like the virus was running through the west coast before it was even officially confirmed in China. A few other states too, including Wisconsin. I've said before the virus was global and out of hand before we even knew it existed and there was nothing we could do to stop it.

 

 

"Despite the findings, widespread community transmission in the U.S. was unlikely until late February, the authors said."

 

I never said anything about widespread. I'm addressing the whole narrative of "why didn't we do something sooner?" Because it was far too late before we even knew it existed. The cat was way out of the bag and running around scratching and peeing on everything before we even knew there was a cat in the bag. We've seen how quickly and easily this thing spreads. All it took was those handful of people unknowingly having it and spreading it in December to another handful of people and so on.

 

 

You said "global and out of hand". I took that to mean "widespread".

 

I don't know if we could have done anything to stop it.

[CheezWizHed]

Not surprising, but China was under-reporting and covering up information early also. Seems like they knew that they had something other than flu in Dec 2019 also.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuhan-china-covid-intl/index.html

[adambr2]

Quite frankly at the rate we're going ....14M confirmed cases in the U.S. equals how many total including unconfirmed cases -- 50M? 75M? And with surges likely coming with the weather and holiday gatherings, we may end up getting close to herd immunity thresholds before we even have nationwide access to a vaccine anyway. :/

[MrTPlush]

I have seen quite a few reports and studies that believe we have probably seen somewhere in the neighborhood of 100mil infections by now.

[owbc]

I have seen quite a few reports and studies that believe we have probably seen somewhere in the neighborhood of 100mil infections by now.

 

I assume that number is global? There's no way the US is anywhere near 100 million.

 

And those numbers are all region specific. There are plenty of big cities in the US that have seen very little community spread.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have seen quite a few reports and studies that believe we have probably seen somewhere in the neighborhood of 100mil infections by now.

 

Even if that huge number is true, that is still only roughly 30% of the US population. To achieve effective herd immunity, the thresholds I've seen are in the 70-75% range.

[MrTPlush]

I have seen quite a few reports and studies that believe we have probably seen somewhere in the neighborhood of 100mil infections by now.

 

I assume that number is global? There's no way the US is anywhere near 100 million.

 

And those numbers are all region specific. There are plenty of big cities in the US that have seen very little community spread.

 

No...that would be the United States alone. The CDC thinks that only about 1 in 7 cases are actually getting reported. I don't think it is that farfetched from what I have seen. They reported that belief way back in June and they still believe that to be the case now. You have to consider the asymptomatic rate, people simply refusing to get tested, those are not severe enough to get a test, and people they know are probably positive but they just tell to stay home. The later of which I am mostly referring to when one family member tests positive, but they will tell the rest of the family to just quarantine like they have to anyway. I have known 6 or so households where others got sick, but it wasn't severe so there wasn't really a need to test to prove it.

 

I would guess we are somewhere between 70mil-100mil, it is waaaaaay more than the 13.5mil that are official. The people going under the radar will probably become an even bigger problem as we sneak into flu season. Getting sick in July is weird, but as we enter winter people probably won't be running to get a test for mild symptoms.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's been making the rounds for a year. I don't think 1/3 of people having it is insane, but it sounds high. 13.5 million is laughable. There are loooooot of people in the country living in very not dense areas, though. Covid is a boring non-factor to many of them. A number like 60-70 million would not surprise me at all though.