COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[LouisEly]

No, I didn't say it. I know nothing about developing a vaccine. Jesse Goodman, a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at Georgetown University said it. I referenced his/her comment.

In pharmaceutical research, a larger study means more participants. A longer-term study is not a larger study; it means that participants are monitored over a longer period of time. Goodman said longer-term, not larger. Semantics.

 

44K is a very large study in pharmaceutical research. I've never heard of anything remotely close to that.

[LouisEly]

Remember Moderna and J&J are very close to announcing results of their phase 3 findings. What happens if their findings are very similar to Pfizer? Does the FDA pick one they think is best, or do they make them all available for distribution- at least in the short term?

They need multiple manufacturers because no one manufacturer will have the manufacturing capacity to meet global demand.

 

They have all been collaborating and sharing data, so I will be surprised if there is a large delta in efficacy. If there is, they will likely share the formula and all manufacturers will make a similar one in order to meet demand.

 

What will be interesting is how they are distributed, to ensure that the second dose that people get is the same product as the first.

[CheezWizHed]

No, I didn't say it. I know nothing about developing a vaccine. Jesse Goodman, a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at Georgetown University said it. I referenced his/her comment.

In pharmaceutical research, a larger study means more participants. A longer-term study is not a larger study; it means that participants are monitored over a longer period of time. Goodman said longer-term, not larger. Semantics.

 

44K is a very large study in pharmaceutical research. I've never heard of anything remotely close to that.

 

I probably confused things by listing 44k in the "larger sample" comment. In this case, the samples are people in the study contracting COVID. They have 94 and need to get 164. They started in April and have 70 more to go.

 

My whole premise was that I didn't think they would be ready by the end of the year.

[igor67]

This article fills in some more details on the cold storage needs:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54889084

 

It appears that compared to a lot of my experience with cold storage samples the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are rather sensitive to the simple act of opening the door. It reminds me why I avoided projects involving RNA, always such a pain to work with compared to DNA or proteins (in general).

[Fear The Chorizo]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30308543/golden-state-warriors-submit-plan-home-game-testing-allow-50-percent-fan-capacity

 

The fact there's an owner for a sports team in California pushing this speaks to how dire the financial situation is for professional sports if fans aren't allowed back into venues to pay for tickets and watch games live. The Warriors would be spending a TON of money for this level of testing, but they realize it's the only way to resume receiving enough revenue to project any sort of longterm viability as an organization that just built and financed a new arena that is a massive moneypit at this point. It's easy for us schlubs to just assume TV revenue alone will keep teams and leagues afloat and anywhere close to making ends meet until society deems going out in public en masse is safe. The reality is that there will be entire leagues folding and more being contracted/reorganized significantly if ticket and day of game revenues don't rebound soon.

 

Many of these arenas/stadiums help organizations make tons of $ without playing games - concerts, festivals, conferences, and other events to name a few. If fans in the stands for games ain't happening, those other things ain't happening either and it's a black hole in organizations' budgets that was initially viewed as a cash cow for teams, particularly those who recently built/renovated facilities and leaned on that projected revenue heavily for construction financing.

[homer]

I don't think anyone disagrees with you but I don't think this would be feasible without the rapid PCR testing that they are proposing and which, until recently, wasn't ready for mass production (and still isn't for the most part).

 

After reading the article, I am optimistic that short of a vaccine this is the route we will go to get things moving again. I'd like to know more about their filtration system. That sounded cool. I don't know if it's a panacea for every industry but certainly for sports and large scale entertainment. Other obvious applications would be for travel, schools, etc.

[MrTPlush]

Moderna has announced a 95% success rate at preventing COVID. Unlike the Pfizer vaccine it does not need super cold temps for storage...just normal fridge temps.

[igor67]

There are important questions still on the table, but the news is pretty big and positive. 1) It just increases the raw number of doses available in the short term. 2) A well executed plan could funnel the Pfizer vaccines to the higher population centers and the Moderna vaccine to more rural parts to help maximize the distribution (I'm sure there a plenty more details but in broad strokes that is very helpful). 3) Since the mRNA type vaccines are new seeing very similar results in 2 separate studies run without and without direct government oversight is very comforting.

[homer]

Certainly is nice to see a light at the end of the tunnel. I just hope we can get this current wave under some kind of control before the vaccine is able to be widely distributed.

[reillymcshane]

I just hope we can get this current wave under some kind of control before the vaccine is able to be widely distributed.

I think it's going to be ugly. At least in Wisconsin.

 

My wife's organization saw the number of people hospitalized with COVID increase by 400% in the last two months.

 

They expect their current numbers to double in the next two weeks.

 

How people handle Thanksgiving will be a crucial factor.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How people handle Thanksgiving will be a crucial factor.

 

That's what worries me, along with the hunting opener next weekend. I've seen several posts and memes going around Facebook in the last few days indicating ideas like "you don't know how much time you have left with your loved ones, so don't sacrifice your holidays with them". It makes me want to slap those people upside the head. I mean, I get that family time and tradition is important, but if there was one time where it's prudent to break with tradition, this is the year to do it.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

How people handle Thanksgiving will be a crucial factor.

 

That's what worries me, along with the hunting opener next weekend. I've seen several posts and memes going around Facebook in the last few days indicating ideas like "you don't know how much time you have left with your loved ones, so don't sacrifice your holidays with them". It makes me want to slap those people upside the head. I mean, I get that family time and tradition is important, but if there was one time where it's prudent to break with tradition, this is the year to do it.

 

We're doing a 5-person Thanksgiving and there are 4 that live in my house, but I can't quite get past how anyone thinks that 9-10 months in, we are going to a get corner on this with isolation and masks. No public official can come out and say this, but it is over and we lost. The US can't stop it. It's all crisis management now until we have drugs.

 

Arguing over how effective lockdowns/masks/distancing are, are moot points by now. Even if masks were 100% effective and isolation is 100% effective (it is) it's not going to happen. The nature of exponential spread is such that a lot of people following along and a lot of people not following along just doesn't really make a difference.

 

Even if a person does everything right, for many people the necessities of everyday living will force them to cross paths with people who aren't, or at least another person who came across a person who wasn't.

 

It's also a virus. Sometimes you just get sick, and it's not because you did some terrible thing. I just feel like there's been so little acknowledgment of the reality that lots of things are beyond our control, and people are always going to make exceptions for themselves that they don't grant other people. I.e., "no should be seeing movie right now, but I'll just go this one time." We're animals and we spread viruses. It's happened throughout history.

 

I know the rebuttal to this is that other countries handled it better, but that time has passed. We had to do that in January with some semblance of unity. and cohesion and it didn't happen. The other factor that has been mystifyingly under-reported is just how ridiculously unhealthy the US population is. I'll never believe that wasn't the single biggest factor that made it so devastating here.

[homer]

How people handle Thanksgiving will be a crucial factor.

 

That's what worries me, along with the hunting opener next weekend. I've seen several posts and memes going around Facebook in the last few days indicating ideas like "you don't know how much time you have left with your loved ones, so don't sacrifice your holidays with them". It makes me want to slap those people upside the head. I mean, I get that family time and tradition is important, but if there was one time where it's prudent to break with tradition, this is the year to do it.

 

We're doing a 5-person Thanksgiving and there are 4 that live in my house, but I can't quite get past how anyone thinks that 9-10 months in, we are going to a get corner on this with isolation and masks. No public official can come out and say this, but it is over and we lost. The US can't stop it. It's all crisis management now until we have drugs.

 

Arguing over how effective lockdowns/masks/distancing are, are moot points by now. Even if masks were 100% effective and isolation is 100% effective (it is) it's not going to happen. The nature of exponential spread is such that a lot of people following along and a lot of people not following along just doesn't really make a difference.

 

Even if a person does everything right, for many people the necessities of everyday living will force them to cross paths with people who aren't, or at least another person who came across a person who wasn't.

 

It's also a virus. Sometimes you just get sick, and it's not because you did some terrible thing. I just feel like there's been so little acknowledgment of the reality that lots of things are beyond our control, and people are always going to make exceptions for themselves that they don't grant other people. I.e., "no should be seeing movie right now, but I'll just go this one time." We're animals and we spread viruses. It's happened throughout history.

 

I know the rebuttal to this is that other countries handled it better, but that time has passed. We had to do that in January with some semblance of unity. and cohesion and it didn't happen. The other factor that has been mystifyingly under-reported is just how ridiculously unhealthy the US population is. I'll never believe that wasn't the single biggest factor that made it so devastating here.

 

 

The fear is that it can get worse than it is right now. I don't think anyone is under any illusions that it's going to go away if we all start behaving responsibly. If everyone can do their part to keep it at bay as best they can that will do a lot to alleviate strain on the healthcare system.

[FVBrewerFan]

How people handle Thanksgiving will be a crucial factor.

 

That's what worries me, along with the hunting opener next weekend. I've seen several posts and memes going around Facebook in the last few days indicating ideas like "you don't know how much time you have left with your loved ones, so don't sacrifice your holidays with them". It makes me want to slap those people upside the head. I mean, I get that family time and tradition is important, but if there was one time where it's prudent to break with tradition, this is the year to do it.

 

In your opinion it's prudent. Politicians say it's prudent- for everyone else but them. Slap me in the face, because it's not prudent for my family. I haven't see my siblings all year. More importantly, my parent haven't seen my siblings all year. Two of them have a few days off around Thanksgiving, and they are traveling back to WI. We are having everyone over at our house. Oh no!!!

 

You tell my parents who are 89 and 88 that they need to wait two years for the virus to pass to see their children and grandchildren. Yes, there's a chance one of us pass on the virus to them. Odds of that happening AND dying from it are way less than one of them dying from lots of other causes at their age over a two year period. They've seen over 24 people now test positive in their senior living community, between staff and residents. Not one has been hospitalized.

 

So they want to see everyone, not knowing when they'll get that opportunity again. Weighing the risk, this is an easy call to make. We won't even sing, just to be sure.

[owbc]

How people handle Thanksgiving will be a crucial factor.

 

That's what worries me, along with the hunting opener next weekend. I've seen several posts and memes going around Facebook in the last few days indicating ideas like "you don't know how much time you have left with your loved ones, so don't sacrifice your holidays with them". It makes me want to slap those people upside the head. I mean, I get that family time and tradition is important, but if there was one time where it's prudent to break with tradition, this is the year to do it.

 

In your opinion it's prudent. Politicians say it's prudent- for everyone else but them. Slap me in the face, because it's not prudent for my family. I haven't see my siblings all year. More importantly, my parent haven't seen my siblings all year. Two of them have a few days off around Thanksgiving, and they are traveling back to WI. We are having everyone over at our house. Oh no!!!

 

You tell my parents who are 89 and 88 that they need to wait two years for the virus to pass to see their children and grandchildren. Yes, there's a chance one of us pass on the virus to them. Odds of that happening AND dying from it are way less than one of them dying from lots of other causes at their age over a two year period. They've seen over 24 people now test positive in their senior living community, between staff and residents. Not one has been hospitalized.

 

So they want to see everyone, not knowing when they'll get that opportunity again. Weighing the risk, this is an easy call to make. We won't even sing, just to be sure.

 

This type of comment is pretty common in my field, generally it is what [predominately] older residents say to officials when they refuse to comply with mandatory evacuations prior to hurricanes. "I've been though blah blah storm in the past and was just fine etc etc." I feel bad for the first responders who have to fish out their drowned bodies after the fact.

[FVBrewerFan]

This type of comment is pretty common in my field, generally it is what [predominately] older residents say to officials when they refuse to comply with mandatory evacuations prior to hurricanes. "I've been though blah blah storm in the past and was just fine etc etc." I feel bad for the first responders who have to fish out their drowned bodies after the fact.

 

That's a horrible analogy, and incredibly rude. But that's ok. A hurricane is a short lived event. The risk/reward says evacuation is an easy thing to do, even though chances of death/ severe bodily harm is still very low.

 

If Covid were a short term event, that happened only over Thanksgiving, or even a month, it would be a better analogy. The elderly, by definition, are more likely to die of virtually anything over a two year period. Covid is just one of those things, and pretty low on the list when precautions are taken.

 

If you want to tell elderly people they're better off not seeing their family for two years, when there's a very real possibility that may never happen, be my guest. But that's their decision. Not yours. Not a governor, not a president.

[PeaveyFury]

The elderly, by definition, are more likely to die of virtually anything over a two year period. Covid is just one of those things, and pretty low on the list when precautions are taken.

 

From what I've heard, it may be one of 'those things', but it's a pretty lonely and not real great way to go. Also, isn't getting together like that inherently not taking the precautions that would help keep that low on the list?

 

If you want to tell elderly people they're better off not seeing their family for two years

 

Where is the 'two years' thing coming from? By all accounts, there's going to be a vaccine sometime within the next few months.

 

But that's their decision. Not yours.

 

Honestly, I might actually support a voluntary COVID-like indemnity agreement that basically says 'I'm choosing to take my own risks, so you can treat others medically before me as a result.' If you want to engage in risky behaviors that only effect you, fine, I suppose. But then live (or I guess maybe not?) with the consequences of your actions and don't infringe on those that did what they were supposed to.

 

But the reality is, those personal decisions can have a negative impact on others, so it's not as simple as you'd like, unfortunately.

[PeaveyFury]

Georgia Tech released an interesting 'event risk estimator' to estimate the risk level of attending an event based on current COVID data:

 

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

 

For example, having a gathering of 15 people in Winnebago County would offer a 57% probability that at least one person in attendance will be COVID positive. Menominee county earns the highest probability in WI at 86%. Not sure I'd be eager to attend Thanksgiving dinner in that neck of the woods.

[FVBrewerFan]

The elderly, by definition, are more likely to die of virtually anything over a two year period. Covid is just one of those things, and pretty low on the list when precautions are taken.

 

From what I've heard, it may be one of 'those things', but it's a pretty lonely and not real great way to go. Also, isn't getting together like that inherently not taking the precautions that would help keep that low on the list?

 

If you want to tell elderly people they're better off not seeing their family for two years

 

Where is the 'two years' thing coming from? By all accounts, there's going to be a vaccine sometime within the next few months.

 

But that's their decision. Not yours.

 

Honestly, I might actually support a voluntary COVID-like indemnity agreement that basically says 'I'm choosing to take my own risks, so you can treat others medically before me as a result.' If you want to engage in risky behaviors that only effect you, fine, I suppose. But then live (or I guess maybe not?) with the consequences of your actions and don't infringe on those that did what they were supposed to.

 

But the reality is, those personal decisions can have a negative impact on others, so it's not as simple as you'd like, unfortunately.

 

 

Two years is the estimate we hear from Fauci and many others. We are told vaccine is part off the solution, but it's still not 100% effective, and the at-risk population should continue to quarantine. Two years is a guess, but certainly at least a year and a half. It could be over two years before Covid 19 is gone completely.

 

No Covid-19 is not a good way to go. Neither is pneumonia, stroke, or a whole lot of things that happen every day. And far more likely to occur than contracting and becoming gravely ill due to Covid. It's math.

 

We do take precautions. Other than Dr. appts that are absolutely necessary, I think they've been out of their place twice since March. One thing that's happened during this pandemic is people have lost all sense of proportionality. Yes, one of us may have Covid and not know it. Yes, one of us could pass it on them. And yes, they could be one of the few that has serious problems as a result. That could happen, in fact more likely to happen, at the clinic.

 

It is as simple as I'd like. My parents want to see their children before they die. I have no problem at all making that happen, and I will never be forced to believe it's amoral.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This type of comment is pretty common in my field, generally it is what [predominately] older residents say to officials when they refuse to comply with mandatory evacuations prior to hurricanes. "I've been though blah blah storm in the past and was just fine etc etc." I feel bad for the first responders who have to fish out their drowned bodies after the fact.

 

I feel bad for you not understanding how far off base this analogy is to the intent of the previous post.

 

And the whole "two years" thing comes from the fact that this has already been going on for about 8 months in the US, even a rushed vaccine won't be widely distributed until closer to 1 year's time, and the vaccine itself won't magically make COVID disappear a month after the first few hundred million doses are given across a globe with ~8billion people on it. The vaccine will reduce the voracity of widespread outbreaks across the entire population that taxes medical systems, but the most at risk people (including the elderly) will be under increased risk of medical troubles from COVID for multiple years even with a widely distributed vaccine - particularly given the fact that it's likely COVID antibodies don't stay in the immune system indefinitely for people who have already recovered or have been vaccinated initially.

 

We can still think 3 months from now a vaccine will make COVID go away, but that's not realistic. If people are really upset at elderly individuals wanting to see their families around the holidays knowing their time here is precious, and think it makes any sort of difference with the overall virus numbers considering how many other people make horrible decisions from an infection standpoint out in public on a daily basis, I don't know what to say.

[BillScottCanRake]

The thing which makes it so tough to deal with COVID is the consequences of our decisions can have on others beyond our inner circle. Take the example of the wedding in Maine with 55 attendees.

 

- 176 people contract COVID as a result of the wedding, even tho only 1/3 of that number attended the event

- 7 people died, none of whom attended the wedding

- one guest infected 82 others through their work at a jail

 

Those types of events don't inspire a lot of confidence in the ability of people as a group to universally act responsibly. Especially since it wouldn't have taken much to make the wedding considerably safer, and it wouldn’t have taken much to limit the spread after. I get that no one probably wanted to wear a mask at a wedding, but if they had done so things would have probably been better. If the symptomatic musician had isolated earlier, it would probably have been better. If all of them isolated themselves for even a week before resuming normal, day-to-day activities things would probably have been better. I get that weddings are incredibly important events, and I don't think anyone expects those types of events to stop happening. But few if any of the known simple precautions which would likely have made this wedding much safer were followed and 7 non-attendees who had no say in the matter died.

 

I post this not to discourage anyone from making their own choices during the holidays; it was a hard choice for us to decide to have Thanksgiving as a couple instead of spending it with my wife's 95 and 89 year old grandparents, and I don't begrude anyone for making a different choice. But if you do make a different choice, please remember the choices you do make affect more than those you choose to interact with, your need for vigilance doesn’t end after the football games end Thursday night. Being as considerate of people in your community for two weeks after the holiday as you are of those you spent Thanksgiving with seems like a fair trade for getting to have a semi-normal holiday.

[LouisEly]

In your opinion it's prudent. Politicians say it's prudent- for everyone else but them. Slap me in the face, because it's not prudent for my family. I haven't see my siblings all year. More importantly, my parent haven't seen my siblings all year. Two of them have a few days off around Thanksgiving, and they are traveling back to WI. We are having everyone over at our house. Oh no!!!

 

You tell my parents who are 89 and 88 that they need to wait two years for the virus to pass to see their children and grandchildren. Yes, there's a chance one of us pass on the virus to them. Odds of that happening AND dying from it are way less than one of them dying from lots of other causes at their age over a two year period. They've seen over 24 people now test positive in their senior living community, between staff and residents. Not one has been hospitalized.

 

So they want to see everyone, not knowing when they'll get that opportunity again. Weighing the risk, this is an easy call to make. We won't even sing, just to be sure.

The issue isn't so much getting together, it is not isolating or testing before and afterwards. So long as everyone either self-quarantines for two weeks or gets tested a couple of days before and self-quarantines afterwards for two weeks or until they can get tested 4-5 days later, there isn't much risk.

 

The problem is that the people who are getting together in larger groups generally aren't self-quarantining or testing before or afterwards and end up spreading well beyond the group.

 

Also, consider the capacity of the local hospital(s) before making your decision. There may not be space available.

[igor67]

Time for a football analogy 12 million recorded cases, go with the standard and assume twice that number of undetected asymptomatic people gets us to 24 million out of 331 million or 7.25%. Let's round all the way up to 8% just to be generous and we are talking 4.8 minutes of the way through a football game. If one wants to get together with family there are very safe ways to do that in person, like getting tested or isolating prior to meeting. Unfortunately despite the higher risk side of my family seemingly having escaped with mild cases our other side that we were making those preparations to meet has suffered an outbreak.

[reillymcshane]

I guess I am amazed at the lack of nuance in some of things that get said about this kind of thing.

 

Virtually no one is saying grandma and grandpa or whomever can't see their kids or grandkids for two years. Or even a year. Or even a month. The idea is to be smart. Be aware. Be decent to others.

 

If you are gathering together, get those attending to be smart about the event. Don't go drinking at a bar with a bunch of maskless people the weekend before. Don't have the kids do a get together with the neighbor kids in the days leading up to the holiday. Skip poker night for a week or two. Pass on church for a Sunday if you're able. Wear your mask. If you feel sick, pass on attending.

 

I have seen family members and friends over the last few months, but always planning ahead. It's NEVER 100% safe, but you can do so much to make it a safer event.

 

It's not always simple. And it's not always easy. Some people will do whatever they want no matter what the circumstances. And for some people, isolating is nearly impossible due to their jobs. But we can still make our interactions safer with a bit of thought and cooperation.

[FVBrewerFan]

I guess I am amazed at the lack of nuance in some of things that get said about this kind of thing.

 

Virtually no one is saying grandma and grandpa or whomever can't see their kids or grandkids for two years. Or even a year. Or even a month. The idea is to be smart. Be aware. Be decent to others.

 

If you are gathering together, get those attending to be smart about the event. Don't go drinking at a bar with a bunch of maskless people the weekend before. Don't have the kids do a get together with the neighbor kids in the days leading up to the holiday. Skip poker night for a week or two. Pass on church for a Sunday if you're able. Wear your mask. If you feel sick, pass on attending.

 

I have seen family members and friends over the last few months, but always planning ahead. It's NEVER 100% safe, but you can do so much to make it a safer event.

 

It's not always simple. And it's not always easy. Some people will do whatever they want no matter what the circumstances. And for some people, isolating is nearly impossible due to their jobs. But we can still make our interactions safer with a bit of thought and cooperation.

 

That's the problem Reilly, many people (including here) have no nuance. They are saying grandma and grandpa shouldn't see their kids. What you describe above is how I think most of us are handling this.