COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[LouisEly]

State Fair hospital is still empty.

 

?? Nine people there currently, and they've had patients there since early this past week, I believe:

 

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/alternate-care-facility.htm

 

9. Exactly. Statewide crisis it is not.

People have been refusing to go there because there aren't a lot of medical personnel there or because it's a long way from where they live.

[TURBO]

About 2-3 weeks ago UW was at max, whereas if an emergency such as heart attack or car accident came in they wouldn't have beds for them after dealing with the emergency so would have to keep them in that room until they figured something out the next day. My understanding some nights now it is and some nights it's not as of now. Of course not all are covid, but those extra covid people is what's eating up the normal wiggle room.

 

And remember hospitals have been converting more and more normal rooms over to ICU for covid in prep of this. But yea, really nothing to worry about here and it's not a crisis, I'm sure it's just greedy doctors. We're not buying our head in the sand at all, we're rounding the corner.

 

This is 100% true.

 

My Mom had a blood clot near her heart, needed to be airlifted to UW Hospital, but there was no place for her, the place was full. She ended up waiting almost 36 hours for surgery that under normal circumstances, would have been performed immediately upon the discovery. She ended up being transferred by ambulance instead, from the Southwest part of the state, to Madison.

 

It was scarey, but it all turned out fine...

 

 

Happy to hear everything turned out ok.

 

thanks, all is well...

[xisxisxis]

I had a checkup last week and my GP said that several of their hospitals in Northern WI were running above their licensed number of patients. I didn't realize that hospitals have a license from the state that allows only X number of patients at any time. He said they don't expect the state to do anything because there just isn't capacity anywhere right now.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Our schools are going virtual 11/9-11/29. My kid is sobbing and I am dreading it.

[igor67]

I could go super long on a school post that has been bouncing around in my head for awhile, but the short version is that MN has had a tiered statewide plan for schools for months. Individual schools opted for a number of strategies under that plan, we decided to be cautious and not risk bouncing kids around a bunch of times in between models (distance, hybrid, in person). Our conversations with other schools that opted to try hybrid was that despite the advantages of some in person time the reality was that dealing with the monitoring and quarantining of students and staff they were pretty universal in saying they could have gotten as much or more learning done in distance. As a pragmatist I understand people will say they support education, but in reality may have any number of other conflicting attitudes about the purpose and role of school aside from actual learning. So I have a question (since I actually have some responsibility in deciding what learning mode our school uses). As a parent would 2 or 3 days a week of in person be that valuable to you knowing that at any moment you may have to switch back to quarantine for 2 weeks? This is not arbitrary one of our comparison schools has kept track and in 2 months (keep in mind the case counts here have been noticeably lower in MN) about half their teachers and 20% of the students have had to miss time for quarantining.

 

On a separate note one of my in-laws tested positive back in Wisconsin with a high likelihood another family member already has it and I would assume his entire household will contract it eventually. Unfortunately, it is hitting the highest risk parts of my close family. None of them are flagrant deniers (or particularly close to that category). With 1 exception even with pre-existing conditions they have decades of life expectancy left. [Our grandparents and aunt hit 90+ with many of the same conditions when that was a lot harder to do]

[CheezWizHed]

My only response is that transitioning between different modes is really hard on my kids. But full time school from home is really hard on working parents. My wife and my situation is about as ideal as it gets. I'm in full WFH mode and she is a stay at home mom. We formerly homeschooled our kids. We have a couple special needs kids where the transition is very hard. And getting special services are pretty close to impossible while at home.

 

I manage a team of engineers that have widely varying situations. A single dad with kids in hybrid - he has really struggled to get work accomplished when the kids are home; sometimes working weekends to make up time. Husband/Wife (both work for me) with school aged and newborns - they pulled their kids out of public school for a private school that would meet in person. Others taking time off to run to COVID tests so their kids can go back to daycare.

 

And those examples are of people in full WFH mode and very flexible situations (our company has bent over backwards to provide flexibility for us). I can't imagine people with jobs that require them to be in person or less flexible work situations and dealing with school from home.

 

No answer is easy unfortunately...

[nodakfan17]

Mods, feel free to edit if this is too controversial: North Dakota is the one state that could give Wisconsin a run for its money when it comes to drinking. We currently have the highest number of COVID cases per capita of any state in the US and instead of our bars and restaurants closing, they can “only” be open until 11:00 pm.

[Machu Peach]

It looks like roughly 2% of the population of NYC, about 170,000 people, may have been COVID seropositive on March 1st. Their lockdown didn't start until March 22nd. Almost 20% of the population, 1.7 million, was COVID seropositive by mid April.

 

Notably, NYC only has roughly 270k confirmed infections total; less than 16% of the likely total infections were actually ever detected.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2912-6

[reillymcshane]

Saw a hospital chief lay out some tough numbers they have had.

 

The first 7 months of COVID they had 1500 cases and 6 deaths. In the following three weeks they have had 4800 cases and 39 deaths. In that time, they have had between 22-24% of the staff out due to having COVID or the fact they have to quarantine. They have stopped 75% of all elective surgeries. They expect things to get worse.

[homer]

The Pfizer news is certainly encouraging.

[igor67]

It certainly is, though I think it is still close to a month wait before distribution would actually be able to start, that is potentially quite a few more cases between now and then.

[homer]

It certainly is, though I think it is still close to a month wait before distribution would actually be able to start, that is potentially quite a few more cases between now and then.

 

I'd be VERY surprised if they distributed anything before 2021 assuming this is the real deal. And even once they start it's going to take weeks/months. I hope others can develop vaccines in the interim so it doesn't all fall on one company. That would help matters.

[reillymcshane]

The Pfizer news is great. 90% effectiveness is amazing.

 

They still have a couple of more weeks of gathering safety data, and then plan to apply for emergency authorization to produce the vaccine (which, I'm guessing, won't take long). Researchers say that there have been no serious safety concerns observed thus far.

 

Assuming all goes well, some doses should start to be given by end of the year - mainly to high-risk groups such as healthcare workers, people in nursing homes, etc. The general public won't really see the vaccine until a few months into 2021.

 

Pfizer says they will have 100 million doses of the vaccine by the end of March. A person will need two doses - so that means 50 million people can, potentially, be vaccinated by April.

 

I read that distribution of the vaccine will be a major effort, as the virus has to be stored at super low temperatures - beyond what a regular freezer can reach.

 

Some challenges ahead, but it's great news.

[LouisEly]

The Pfizer news is great. 90% effectiveness is amazing.

 

A person will need two doses

I want to know how many people will forget this and not come back for their second dose.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-distribut/why-pfizers-ultra-cold-covid-19-vaccine-will-not-be-at-the-local-pharmacy-any-time-soon-idUSKBN27P2VI

 

The Mayo Clinic doesn't even have cold storage capabilities that low, but at those temperatures (-70 F) the vaccine will last for six months. It can last for five days at normal refrigeration temperature (~40 degrees F). Article doesn't say what the shelf life is at regular freezer temperatures (0 degrees F).

 

However, other vaccines don't need such low temperatures. The ones from J&J and Novavax can be stored at normal refrigeration temperatures. Moderna's vaccine is similar, but doesn't need to be stored at such low temperatures.

[Machu Peach]

The Mayo Clinic doesn't even have cold storage capabilities that low, but at those temperatures (-70 F) the vaccine will last for six months.

Mayo can store things much much colder than -70C. I assume you have a typo with "-70 F"

 

The author is flat out wrong. I have no idea what the virologist quoted is talking about.

[igor67]

I would have to agree with Machu that there is something off about the statement concerning Mayo. You would need comparable storage for freezing eggs for IVF for example, and molecular biology research labs typically have freezers that are that cold. I would guess it is more of a question of capacity and location. The freezer space to store enough vaccines and in the right location for their clinics makes more sense.

 

If your curious to go shopping

https://www.fishersci.com/us/en/browse/90106033/ultra-low-temperature-freezers

[Machu Peach]

Pretty much all biomedical research labs have at least one -80C freezer. My lab has six.

 

Back of the envelope math...

If one where to assume a single dose packaging and larger vials (both very inefficient space-wise) a single -80C could hold 15,000-60,000 vials. That means my lab could hold 90,000-360,000 vials. One could add space for another 15,000-60,000 vials or so if we include our -196C storage.

 

A -80C takes up roughly the same amount of space as a large refrigerator and requires a power outlet. They don't need any sort of special space; most labs keep them in the hallway. I can see why your standard pharmacy wouldn't have access to a -80C, but there's no reason why every hospital shouldn't have one (or be able to easily procure one).

 

In the absolute worst case scenario one could use a camping/picnic cooler and make a trip to Walmart every 2-3 days to pick up $30 worth of dry ice and easily maintain -80C.

[Samurai Bucky]

Needed to get screened this morning. Up both nostrils... ouch!

 

Before the pandemic, people were frustrated with "big pharma." Is this a situation where "big pharma" is a good thing?

[Fear The Chorizo]

In the absolute worst case scenario one could use a camping/picnic cooler and make a trip to Walmart every 2-3 days to pick up $30 worth of dry ice and easily maintain -80C.

 

Someone at Omaha Steaks just had a great idea for an item that takes up limited cooler space but really completes their holiday meat basket package...Family Veal and Vaccs at your door!

[LouisEly]

El Paso using freezer trucks as makeshift morgues.

 

The CEO of the University of Iowa hospital and clinics telling people to "have a backup plan" in case you can't get into your local hospital.

 

Utah under state of emergency, has banned all indoor and in-home gatherings for two weeks.

[LouisEly]

I would have to agree with Machu that there is something off about the statement concerning Mayo. You would need comparable storage for freezing eggs for IVF for example, and molecular biology research labs typically have freezers that are that cold. I would guess it is more of a question of capacity and location. The freezer space to store enough vaccines and in the right location for their clinics makes more sense.

 

If your curious to go shopping

https://www.fishersci.com/us/en/browse/90106033/ultra-low-temperature-freezers

What % of hospitals have molecular biology research labs? Isn't most IVF done at private fertility clinics?

 

I'm just wondering how many community hospitals have that capability... and how the vaccines are going to get there. Especially if they are going to divvy them up to health care workers and first responders first.

[JosephC]

Government/Science face-mask strategy continues to work just great!

 

Any thought of the Department of Health putting the following back on the website?

 

However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

[igor67]

I don't have any direct experience with hospital labs, I would just be surprised given the research tie-ins for Mayo's central hospital to not have substantial lab space, the same with UW hospital and U of M. Other hospitals I'm not really sure.

[PeaveyFury]

Government/Science face-mask strategy continues to work just great!

 

Any thought of the Department of Health putting the following back on the website?

 

However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

 

Not sure why the points made would be considered controversial- 1)Wear a mask, 2)Be smart while wearing it, since the mask protects others rather than you. The latter part still seems to get lost on far to many, sadly, hence the additional warnings.

[Machu Peach]

So I looked into it a bit more. From what I hear, the vaccine will be packaged in a temperature monitored cooler filled with dry ice at the distribution facility and then directly sent to the end user facility. Protocol says the cooler can be opened twice a day to remove vaccine and restock dry ice for a max of 15 days (I'm not sure if this if 15 days total or 15 days on top of the first 10 days). Protocol allows the vaccine to stay at 4C for up to 5 days. The current plan is to ship directly to clinics, pharmacies, and specific community vaccine centers. There's no need for a -80C freezer at any point in the distribution process and I'm not clear if they can be used where available.

 

I'm also not 100% certain on any of that and it doesn't sound like the plans are fully finalized, so please don't hold it against me if that proves to be partially or completely wrong. I'm doing a ton of reading-between-the-lines and it's really just my best guess.