COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[nate82]

 

Hopefully either not behind a paywall (or directly linked to the backing data) or impartial/reputable?

 

So the people putting out the data don't fall into your political ideology so the data is not right got it. So you are not interested in reading something and learning something because you are afraid your ideology will be challenged. Closed minded indeed.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Hopefully either not behind a paywall (or directly linked to the backing data) or impartial/reputable?

 

So the people putting out the data don't fall into your political ideology so the data is not right got it. So you are not interested in reading something and learning something because you are afraid your ideology will be challenged. Closed minded indeed.

 

1)Don't assume anything about my political ideology, you'd be surprised.

2)I'm interested in reading most anything. Whether I use it to actually draw any conclusions, though, depends solely on its credibility.

3)As Machu and igor and perhaps others here can weigh in on, there's a direct inverse correlation in scholarly research between initial bias and reliability of conclusion. As such, I prefer to base my own personal conclusions based on sources that don't start from a place of bias.

 

In short, I think that "group that supports the opening of the economy releases a study showing that it's bad to not have an open economy" should be viewed with reasonable skepticism, not cited as absolute proof in any claim. I don't think your claim is summarily wrong. I'm just wondering about the reliability of the sources you used to come to that conclusion.

[owbc]

I think expecting someone to post a link proving lockdowns do or do not work is a bit of a fool's errand. I believe his claim is fair, there is evidence they don't work, and also evidence they do. There is evidence that obesity, weather and GDP are better indicators of what happens versus a lockdown. I'm not sure how you would gauge the effectiveness of them either with terrible tracing data, massive numbers of under-reported cases or people lying about their behavior.

 

It will probably be years until there is any kind of agreement as to how effective they were. Nearly everything we have right now is half a story, "i.e., cases dropped, but it was also 78 degrees" kind of thing.

 

We don't need a study to tell us that if everyone locks indoors for 1 month there is nowhere for a virus to go, but that's not how this unfolds in reality.

 

My issue is not lockdown vs. no lockdown, it's basic mask+social distancing compliance. There really isn't much difference in official restrictions or weather between a state like Wisconsin (25% positivity rate) and other northern states that have 1.5-5% positivity rates (Massachusetts, Washington State, etc.).

[JackNicholson1974]

I think expecting someone to post a link proving lockdowns do or do not work is a bit of a fool's errand. I believe his claim is fair, there is evidence they don't work, and also evidence they do. There is evidence that obesity, weather and GDP are better indicators of what happens versus a lockdown. I'm not sure how you would gauge the effectiveness of them either with terrible tracing data, massive numbers of under-reported cases or people lying about their behavior.

 

It will probably be years until there is any kind of agreement as to how effective they were. Nearly everything we have right now is half a story, "i.e., cases dropped, but it was also 78 degrees" kind of thing.

 

We don't need a study to tell us that if everyone locks indoors for 1 month there is nowhere for a virus to go, but that's not how this unfolds in reality.

 

My issue is not lockdown vs. no lockdown, it's basic mask+social distancing compliance. There really isn't much difference in official restrictions or weather between a state like Wisconsin (25% positivity rate) and other northern states that have 1.5-5% positivity rates (Massachusetts, Washington State, etc.).

 

Do you realize how hard it is to socially distance and wear a mask when you are sitting in a local tavern all day and night?

 

I believe 100% that Wisconsin's issue is due to the bar culture here. Summer ended, people stopped drinking at outdoor social gatherings, and went back to their dart leagues and just generally bellying up again. Would also explain the issue in the Dakota's, which are the states most similar to WI when it comes to drinking culture.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think any temperate states were going to see a worse spike once summer ended, to what degree our measures influenced it, I have no clue. Without a drug to really put a dent in things, winter was going to be a problem. My estimate, and maybe I'm wrong, is that this is going to be worse in the coming months than it has been at any point. This really emerged when weather started to get better. It's now getting worse and the counts are already ballooning, I'm not sure it's the cause, but I think it's going to compound the problem as we move forward. It just does not look like a good recipe to me.

 

I'm highly skeptical of our ability to adhere to lockdowns all winter. Life finds a way, so to speak.

[homer]

The surge in WI effectively started when the weather was still nice (around labor day). If Arizona, Texas, Florida are any indication, it's roughly a month from peak numbers back down. Problem is we won't know peak until we are past it but my guess is that it will be in a week or two. Just a guess.

[PeaveyFury]

I think any temperate states were going to see a worse spike once summer ended, to what degree our measures influenced it, I have no clue. Without a drug to really put a dent in things, winter was going to be a problem. My estimate, and maybe I'm wrong, is that this is going to be worse in the coming months than it has been at any point. This really emerged when weather started to get better. It's now getting worse and the counts are already ballooning, I'm not sure it's the cause, but I think it's going to compound the problem as we move forward. It just does not look like a good recipe to me.

 

I'm highly skeptical of our ability to adhere to lockdowns all winter. Life finds a way, so to speak.

 

I also agree with most of this. Winter always looked to be a problem, and the holidays are going to cause an uncontrollable spike beyond what we're experiencing already. Not good indeed.

 

I think that's why a lot of schools especially at the collegiate level had discussed a 'winter break' that ran from Thanksgiving through after New Year's. Most of that talk has died down, but I wonder if it'll resurface if we continue to balloon in the next couple of weeks.

[tmwiese55]

The surge in WI effectively started when the weather was still nice (around labor day). If Arizona, Texas, Florida are any indication, it's roughly a month from peak numbers back down. Problem is we won't know peak until we are past it but my guess is that it will be in a week or two. Just a guess.

 

If you're looking for correlations schools/colleges are the most glaringly obvious one on the timing of this. Of course, correlation doesn't prove causation. But that would be one heck of a coincidence and it's not shocking that a stark increase of gatherings of humans together led to an increase in a disease spread human to human.

[PeaveyFury]

Honestly, the start of Packer season might be the actual reason. I think it was easier to avoid gatherings in bars before everyone had a reason to. Maybe that's crazy, but I think football might be a big reason.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I would add wedding season. A lot of the earlier ones were postponed, but that is money wedding season every year. And those, anecdotally speaking, seemed to be a disproportionately common thread in the people I knew who actually got it. The number of weddings, a completely elective thing that can be made official and celebrated later, has been unbelievable to me.

[PeaveyFury]

I would add wedding season. A lot of the earlier ones were postponed, but that is money wedding season every year. And those, anecdotally speaking, seemed to be a disproportionately common thread in the people I knew who actually got it. The number of weddings, a completely elective thing that can be made official and celebrated later, has been unbelievable to me.

 

Also a good point. I agree that those that are getting it seem to have one of two things in common- either bar or 'large family gathering'.

[tmwiese55]

Yup all true. Schools of course are daily things for thousands and thousands of people as opposed to one day for weddings or Packer games. They're just a much smaller scale and also have to think of how the people got it who took it to the weddings. It's almost impossible to know anything these days as it's so widespread. But yes I've heard plenty of wedding stories too.

 

Side note on Packer games, my local towny bar can't get people in there for the games, supposedly due to BLM. That's what they say anyway or they say that's what people are telling them. Could be their bias speaking or it could just be virus fear too, who knows. That's not meant to imply to be a trend or anything of that nature, it's just one place.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Schools, while they are daily things for many, are largely the same people together over and over again, and depending on the school, this has been strictly enforced lots of places. Obviously, there's plenty of opportunity for kids getting it from parents who went somewhere and bringing it back, but a wedding is an absolute petri dish nightmare. They are people from all over the place, who then start drinking, lose all inhibition, and then scream with each other while they sweat and dance. There is also going to be a strong reluctance from at-risk people to skip them, grandma can't miss it, etc.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, it's all tied together. Go to the wedding/bar, go home, give it to people there, kid takes it to school and so on. And the reverse, kid brings it home from school, then someone takes to a wedding/bar. Impossible to know anything these days. Seems logical to think that without these things the spread would be lowered, not sure what such a thing would be called.

 

For correlations sake though. Weddings/bars had been going on all summer, schools had not.

[Machu Peach]

It's also usually not a good idea to question the motives of the person you're interacting with. The overwhelming majority of the humanity doesn't want people to die or businesses to close. Play the odds and assume you're interacting with a decent human being that has reached a different conclusion than you. ...and if it 'seems like' you're interacting with a dirtbag at least be open to the idea that you're misunderstanding their point.

 

I think your point is valid, though perhaps an overly optimistic view of society as a whole. I'd agree wholeheartedly with your view if people had drawn a conclusion based on their own review of data and reputable sources. Sadly, I believe that views on this are largely derived from what 'their side' tells them to believe/think, and subsequently how to act, and is often based on inaccurate or blatantly misleading 'reporting' on social media, cable news channels du jour, etc.

 

I actually thing OSS has made one of the better arguments at this point that I've been presented with regarding the state of things- there's literally nothing we can do to prevent up to 45% of the population from acting in a risky, dangerous way. Are we better to just let them Darwin themselves at this point and open back up while those that take a different view duck and cover and try to avoid being collateral damage? You still have an ethical dilemma with those that have to work in the industries that can't allow people to themselves to be safe and have other people making that choice for them, but that's the only real counter-argument I have.

I refuse to believe that 45% of the population are irrational lemmings. If that make me overly optimistic I am completely fine with that. I, personally, would likely be chronically unhappy if I thought that about roughly half the population.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

For correlations sake though. Weddings/bars had been going on all summer, schools had not.

 

I'm not sure that's entirely true. It's true that some were, but as I said, some were actually postponed from the beginning of the spring, in the brief period when nobody was willing to go. There was quite an extended period when air travel was a big no-no, and even if you wanted to get on a plane, it was difficult with all the schedule mangling and cancellations. Then there were the gathering limitations, which hamstrung a bunch of the venues from having them. These relaxed, but by that time, there were logistics concerns and a delay in holding them again. And as I also said, weddings boom every year beginning in August and through October. So, the volume of them definitely increased a bunch toward the end of summer.

 

But I think the important distinction is that if I made a list of things we really need to try and make work, school is at the top. Weddings would be among the first things I would say "yeah, we don't need this," if I were the supreme leader.

[jjfanec]

So many factors but in August and September here are things that seemed to ramp up

1. School

2. Church gatherings

3. Weddings

4. More indoor eating and drinking as it got colder. Bars were open all summer but in some locations people could eat outside

5. Events to gather together to watch like sports

 

All of these are large events often done indoors. Not saying these are the for sure reason it has spiked just a lot of things that have similar factors - numerous people, hard to enforce distancing, masks often not worn at least not properly, and indoors

[owbc]

So many factors but in August and September here are things that seemed to ramp up

1. School

2. Church gatherings

3. Weddings

4. More indoor eating and drinking as it got colder. Bars were open all summer but in some locations people could eat outside

5. Events to gather together to watch like sports

 

All of these are large events often done indoors. Not saying these are the for sure reason it has spiked just a lot of things that have similar factors - numerous people, hard to enforce distancing, masks often not worn at least not properly, and indoors

 

This is starting to make more sense to me as none of these 5 activities have seen an increase where I'm at in Washington State and COVID numbers have remained fairly steady. Schools never reopened here and bars are table seating only. I haven't really seen any change in behavior since we went to 'Phase 2' of reopening in June, which is where we still are at. We've had a couple weeks with bad weather so I don't think that's it either.

 

I don't really understand the 'COVID restrictions kill businesses' thing as almost all businesses are allowed to be open under these restrictions.

[tmwiese55]

 

For correlations sake though. Weddings/bars had been going on all summer, schools had not.

 

I'm not sure that's entirely true. It's true that some were, but as I said, some were actually postponed from the beginning of the spring, in the brief period when nobody was willing to go. There was quite an extended period when air travel was a big no-no, and even if you wanted to get on a plane, it was difficult with all the schedule mangling and cancellations. Then there were the gathering limitations, which hamstrung a bunch of the venues from having them. These relaxed, but by that time, there were logistics concerns and a delay in holding them again. And as I also said, weddings boom every year beginning in August and through October. So, the volume of them definitely increased a bunch toward the end of summer.

 

But I think the important distinction is that if I made a list of things we really need to try and make work, school is at the top. Weddings would be among the first things I would say "yeah, we don't need this," if I were the supreme leader.

 

 

Totally agree. I don't fault anyone fo trying to make schools work. Especially for actual K-12 type. Colleges, well I can see a discussion there for sure as so much could be online.

 

Sidenote, for me wedding season has always been more summer than fall. I guess my circle is much more into college football than most haha. But yea this year, yea vibe I've seen is things got looser later in the summer/fall so probably is more now due to the early fears. I started to put something like that in original post but deleted. But there was still some going on all summer, I was surprised when I saw them. And of course bars have been since May

[tmwiese55]

So many factors but in August and September here are things that seemed to ramp up

1. School

2. Church gatherings

3. Weddings

4. More indoor eating and drinking as it got colder. Bars were open all summer but in some locations people could eat outside

5. Events to gather together to watch like sports

 

All of these are large events often done indoors. Not saying these are the for sure reason it has spiked just a lot of things that have similar factors - numerous people, hard to enforce distancing, masks often not worn at least not properly, and indoors

 

This is starting to make more sense to me as none of these 5 activities have seen an increase where I'm at in Washington State and COVID numbers have remained fairly steady. Schools never reopened here and bars are table seating only. I haven't really seen any change in behavior since we went to 'Phase 2' of reopening in June, which is where we still are at. We've had a couple weeks with bad weather so I don't think that's it either.

 

I don't really understand the 'COVID restrictions kill businesses' thing as almost all businesses are allowed to be open under these restrictions.

 

I think that's the hybrid non full shutdown idea that some of us have mentioned. Unfortunately things have gotten so extreme those type of restrictions to try and find a middle ground are met with big resistance and lawsuits too.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't really understand the 'COVID restrictions kill businesses' thing as almost all businesses are allowed to be open under these restrictions.

 

It isn't that simple though. Take for example Disney World, a massive operation which is allowed to open but under capacity limits which drastically lower the crowd, which in turn have led to tens of thousands of layoffs (more yesterday), which leads to fewer people pumping money into the businesses that are opened. This is just one example and an extreme one, but it applies all over the place. Disney Land has had it even worse, they still haven't been allowed to open - at all.

 

Fewer weddings are fewer photographers, bartenders and DJs getting paid. The concession workers at sporting events, the bartenders at the Riverside, etc.

 

The retail chains are not offering the same level of seasonal staff because the demand and crowds aren't there.

 

This would have happened on some level anyway, there would have been lower attendance at anything regardless. The argument is that the restrictions take what would already be a recession of sorts and add red tape that make something already difficult even more so.

 

If you aren't exposed to the people being ruined by the economic aspect of this, it's pretty easy to forget that they are there. The local theater in my town is likely going to be killed off by this. The margins are paper thin as is; they are relying entirely on donor money that is going to dry up without shows for a year. Which also means nobody staying at the hotel or out of towners eating at the local restaurants.

 

Now, of course crowd control of Disney is a good idea considering that as it is now you couldn't distance in any way if you lifted those limits, but those are questions that start getting more difficult the longer it drags out. If we are at Thanksgiving 2021 it gets more difficult for me to go along with laying off 50k people to continue failing at containing a virus. 

 

Lives do have a price, they always have, and there is a "throw your hands up" point where you realize we can't function at 8-10% unemployment when we aren't having any success containing the thing either.

[owbc]

I don't really understand the 'COVID restrictions kill businesses' thing as almost all businesses are allowed to be open under these restrictions.

 

It isn't that simple though. Take for example Disney World, a massive operation which is allowed to open but under capacity limits which drastically lower the crowd, which in turn have led to tens of thousands of layoffs (more yesterday), which leads to fewer people pumping money into the businesses that are opened. This is just one example and an extreme one, but it applies all over the place. Disney Land has had it even worse, they still haven't been allowed to open - at all.

 

Fewer weddings are fewer photographers, bartenders and DJs getting paid. The concession workers at sporting events, the bartenders at the Riverside, etc.

 

The retail chains are not offering the same level of seasonal staff because the demand and crowds aren't there.

 

This would have happened on some level anyway, there would have been lower attendance at anything regardless. The argument is that the restrictions take what would already be a recession of sorts and add red tape that make something already difficult even more so.

 

If you aren't exposed to the people being ruined by the economic aspect of this, it's pretty easy to forget that they are there. The local theater in my town is likely going to be killed off by this. The margins are paper thin as is; they are relying entirely on donor money that is going to dry up without shows for a year. Which also means nobody staying at the hotel or out of towners eating at the local restaurants.

 

Now, of course crowd control of Disney is a good idea considering that as it is now you couldn't distance in any way if you lifted those limits, but those are questions that start getting more difficult the longer it drags out. If we are at Thanksgiving 2021 it gets more difficult for me to go along with laying off 50k people to continue failing at containing a virus. 

 

Lives do have a price, they always have, and there is a "throw your hands up" point where you realize we can't function at 8-10% unemployment when we aren't having any success containing the thing either.

 

I'm still not following this. Are high COVID counts not the cause of the business failures? If COVID is contained then businesses can increase capacity. Restrictions are a result, not a cause.

 

Loosening restrictions is just a matter of choosing economic winners and losers. How much money would the healthcare system lose in exchange for opening up Disneyland? How much money is Wisconsin athletics going to lose because they just (probably) lost their chance at the college football playoff due to COVID?

[LouisEly]

I would add wedding season. A lot of the earlier ones were postponed, but that is money wedding season every year. And those, anecdotally speaking, seemed to be a disproportionately common thread in the people I knew who actually got it. The number of weddings, a completely elective thing that can be made official and celebrated later, has been unbelievable to me.

 

Also a good point. I agree that those that are getting it seem to have one of two things in common- either bar or 'large family gathering'.

Or both. My parents live on the east side of Lake Winnebago (in Pipe, to be specific), and I visited them a couple of weekends ago when it was really warm so we could be outside. When I left, the parking lot of Jim and Linda's supper club was packed with people walking towards it in nicer outfits with half of men wearing ties, very few of them masks.

[Machu Peach]

I'm still not following this. Are high COVID counts not the cause of the business failures? If COVID is contained then businesses can increase capacity. Restrictions are a result, not a cause.

I'm confused by the subject of "Restrictions are a result, not a cause." Are you arguing that restrictions are the result, but not the cause of business failures? Or are you arguing that restrictions are the result, but not the cause of COVID?

 

If the latter, think of it this way. COVID results in restrictions. Restrictions results in lost income and business failures.

 

A results in B and B results in C. Therefore A results in C. ...but that doesn't mean that B doesn't result in C too.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

[

 

I'm still not following this. Are high COVID counts not the cause of the business failures? If COVID is contained then businesses can increase capacity. Restrictions are a result, not a cause.

 

Loosening restrictions is just a matter of choosing economic winners and losers. How much money would the healthcare system lose in exchange for opening up Disneyland? How much money is Wisconsin athletics going to lose because they just (probably) lost their chance at the college football playoff due to COVID?

 

I think that's highly debatable and kind of why there is an argument. Closing things like Kohl's for 2-3 weeks probably achieved next to nothing and absolutely decimated FY for companies like that. It was ultimately their decision, but it really wasn't.

 

The last Evers order that was shut down had many bar and restaurant owners saying it was useless because they can't operate at a profit with 25% capacity. The crux of the whole thing is that if you don't believe this really mitigates anything, then all you are doing is taking a business's chance of survival from say, 35% to 0.

 

I would strongly disagree that restrictions are always a result and not a cause themselves.