COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Also, when looking at AZ, TX, CA spikes recently, it's impossible not to factor in the impact of seasonal migrant worker and geography relative to Mexico, where COVID-19 has basically been running unchecked through that country for months.

 

Oh come on, man. What about Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia?

 

I wouldn't dismiss it, migrant workers go there too. They go everywhere, really, as far north as NJ to follow harvest patterns. A lot of these people can't quarantine and have no other options for income. After entering through CA they get on buses and travel for days, they don't get a lot of sleep and perform hard labor in sometimes brutal conditions. It's not the kind of thing ideal for your immune system.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest

 

https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2020/06/we-have-to-get-serious-about-protecting-california-farmworkers-during-covid-19/

 

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/nearly-190-farmworkers-contract-virus-in-southern-california/2321275/

 

And of course, when they aren't at work, they're still going other places.

[bjkrautk]

https://www.wired.com/story/a-wisconsin-city-experiments-with-a-faster-diy-covid-19-test/

 

A good read for anyone curious about testing, and the local angle certainly makes it worth posting here.

[homer]

Also, when looking at AZ, TX, CA spikes recently, it's impossible not to factor in the impact of seasonal migrant worker and geography relative to Mexico, where COVID-19 has basically been running unchecked through that country for months.

 

Oh come on, man. What about Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia?

 

I wouldn't dismiss it, migrant workers go there too. They go everywhere, really, as far north as NJ to follow harvest patterns. A lot of these people can't quarantine and have no other options for income. After entering through CA they get on buses and travel for days, they don't get a lot of sleep and perform hard labor in sometimes brutal conditions. It's not the kind of thing ideal for your immune system.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest

 

https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2020/06/we-have-to-get-serious-about-protecting-california-farmworkers-during-covid-19/

 

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/nearly-190-farmworkers-contract-virus-in-southern-california/2321275/

 

And of course, when they aren't at work, they're still going other places.

 

 

Without evidence, this just reeks of placing blame elsewhere. Correlation does not equal causation.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not blaming migrant workers for coronavirus (I dunno if he is), it's clearly thrived in all kind of places that don't have migrant workers. I am saying that I would completely expect them to be disproportionately affected because they have absolutely no lifestyle flexibility. They have little to no financial protections that citizens would, they can't farm remotely, there are rampant labor violations on the farms and it's not like they can just go look for another job. It's this or starve. 

 

Then you throw in that they have to move around to find work consistently, and they're working in a country already doing a not very good job of containment, and it becomes a nightmare for these people.

 

But what are they supposed to do? The virus isn't all that scary when the alternative is to go homeless and starve your family.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Also, when looking at AZ, TX, CA spikes recently, it's impossible not to factor in the impact of seasonal migrant worker and geography relative to Mexico, where COVID-19 has basically been running unchecked through that country for months.

 

Oh come on, man. What about Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia?

 

Those states have also spiked, but not to the degree as the ones I've mentioned that have much larger populations of people (dual nationals and Mexican/US citizens) frequenting both countries even during this pandemic. It might be "essential" travel only, but ports/transportation hubs/agricultural commerce is still humming along at a solid clip to keep the grocery stores and Amazon warehouses stocked. The fact is that AZ, TX, and CA all share a geographic border with a neighboring country going through a case surge, and they have multiple commercial hubs that create conduits for commerce entering/exiting the US routinely via rail and road. New Mexico also shares that border, but they aren't nearly as prominent in terms of being a commercial hub since El Paso, TX basically sits directly south of Albuquerque and there's a whole lot of nothing in terms of civilization in between. Railroad and trucking company clients I work with are having difficulties with staff turnover/COVID exposure tracking on both sides of the US/Mexico border in CA and TX. If you are looking for a political or ethnic position in my earlier post you are trying too hard to read between the lines and definitely barking up the wrong tree.

 

Specifically looking at Mexico's COVID data and how poorly representative it is, they have yet to complete 1 million tests as a country and have just over a 40% positive rate with the testing they have completed - largely conducted on people who are in distress and hospitalized and their immediate families they share living space with. This is in a country of ~150 million people. Asymptomatic people aren't getting tested in Mexico to try and get any handle on the rate of the virus' spread on a community level. Mexico's daily new case counts have been steadily climbing since mid April, but that's largely due to gradual increases in the limited testing completed - so trying to identify a case rate spike in that country is futile.

 

You've been saying Georgia was facing imminent disaster since March, btw...

 

Oh, and I'm NOT blaming COVID spikes solely on migrant workers in certain areas, to be clear - I think it is certainly one factor among many in the states that had yet to see their initial surge of cases work their way through the population, though.

[igor67]

Our school did a survey as well and it was a complete mess. Lots of 60/40 splits on questions. No one really liked distance learning, but a modest majority weren't feeling like resuming in person either.

[stoutdude04]

Yea. I anticipate that's how most will be. We are supposed to get an update beginning of August. I am just anticipating being back face to face.

[Machu Peach]

I was kind of hoping Peach might answer a question. So they are getting ready for a phase III vaccine trial. I'm curious what the failure rate (estimate is fine) for vaccines that make it that far. For drugs it is unpleasantly high, not horrible or anything but it is a huge loss for the company after all the investment.

 

The overall rate for vaccines going from an initial IND to full approval is about 33%. Most vaccines fail on the transition from phase IIa to phase IIb or phase IIb to phase III. The phase III to full approval transition is quite good, over 80%.

 

There's a couple caveats when applying those numbers to COVID. 1) The timelines for COVID vaccines are a tiny fraction of normal vaccine studies. 2) Most of what the media are calling "phase III trials" are actually phase IIb/III trials.

[igor67]

That's helpful. Thanks. I'm sure I'll be getting plenty of questions from students in about a month again.

[homer]

New study suggests herd immunity can be reached at 10 - 20%. Theory is that the vulnerable population "declines causing the rate at which new infections occur to slow down". Odd way of saying old people die first but still...

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

 

A few things:

1) this is good but warrants further study. I think they are missing a lot of variables but it definitely should be considered in the scientific debate.

2) getting to 10 - 20% (or whatever the number is) should not really be a "goal" as that is bad.

3) You can get higher than 20%. That's not a magic number. Bergamo, Italy was much higher I believe.

3) if you get to that number too quickly it will put major strain on the healthcare system (see New York, Houston, Phoenix). I don't think the ramifcations for that have been seriously studied yet.

4) Even when you get to threshold it's not like the disease just disappears. There's a slow decline back down the curve.

 

At any rate, I hope this study proves correct. I think the true test will be this fall when the second wave is supposedly going to hit.

[jerichoholicninja]

So two things happened in my life this weekend:

 

1. My wife's extended family's annual camping trip. There is usually 30-40 that go but this year ended up being about 15 as most of the older ones weren't comfortable so their kids and grandkids backed out too. Of the people that were there the general feeling was one of concern and "taking this seriously". Yet, they all chose to unnecessarily travel and spend time in close proximity with people they don't live with or have regular contact with. Of course, lots of complaining about people who refuse to wear masks, and yet no one there was wearing one. Also, they had a potluck, which I believe is all but forbidden under current guidelines. But it was ok because they had gloves and lots of hand sanitizer. One of the people who was there is a teacher who is afraid of having to go back to the classroom this fall. But yet was there and, seeing the photos she posts on Facebook, has been regularly socializing with friends and neighbors throughout the summer. Finally, one of the people there had COVID a few months ago.

 

2. A friend of mine went out to some bars with a group of relative strangers and shared some pictures and stories in our group chat. After barhopping he brought about 10 people back to his house for more drinking until the early morning. Now I have complained about this before but this guy works in government and just recently was part of creating a mask ordinance for the city he works for. He's very vocally pro all the stuff they say you're supposed to be doing to "be safe". He's constantly sharing articles in our group chat with comments like "typical Trumpkin, science denying right winger, etc." And yet here he is out partying with large groups of strangers, none of whom are wearing masks from the pictures, and bringing them into his house.

 

So what was the point of me telling you all that? This whole situation has degraded into (and I think we all know this already) "I'm/my side is right and you're an idiot if you don't agree with me" and "everyone needs to follow the rules, unless they inconvenience me then I can do whatever I want".

[nate82]

 

So what was the point of me telling you all that? This whole situation has degraded into (and I think we all know this already) "I'm/my side is right and you're an idiot if you don't agree with me" and "everyone needs to follow the rules, unless they inconvenience me then I can do whatever I want".

 

I would say that accurately portrays about 99.99% of the people on social media along with about 98% of the politicians out there.

[reillymcshane]

I have to say that my family and I are taking the COVID stuff more seriously than ever. If a place doesn't mask their employees, we just go somewhere else if possible. And we mask everywhere. We don't get together in large groups. And our interactions are pretty minimal - and when we do something, we make sure there's room to keep apart.

 

We know quite a few people that have gotten COVID - a few pretty badly. A friend of my son's from high school lost her father to it - tragic as her mother had died many years ago. Now, she's a 21 year old woman without parents. And she has no siblings. That's just heartbreaking. Her dad was a nice man. Always volunteered at school. Everyone liked him.

 

My wife's work colleague's college age son (who is living at his parents for the summer) just tested positive. His mom just finished chemo - so they're terrified what could happen to her. She's in the highest of the vulnerable groups.

 

The big thing we've seen in the past month is that quite a few young people are getting it. They work retail and grocery and service jobs. Just so easy to make one mistake at those places.

 

My son has to go 14 days doing his annual training for the Marine Corps Reserves. That's going to be kind of scary as social distancing and masking and stuff are kind of difficult in the field. We are planning on isolating for a couple of weeks after he comes home - just to be safe.

[JosephC]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/07/27/wisconsin-added-chicago-quarantine-order-what-to-know/5521773002/

 

Even if your test comes back negative, you still have to complete the 14-day quarantine.

 

I don't understand how something like that can be legal.

 

It just amazes me that the ACLU was so quick to jump all over the Kaci Hickox case when it involved ebola, which kills nearly 50% of the people after they start showing symptoms, and they sit silently while quarantines are ordered for people who have a negative test in hand. Fear has destroyed justice and science.

 

I have viewed the details of the Chicago order and it states that the exceptions to the order are...a person who works in critical infrastructure as designated by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. “Essential worker” includes any state, local, and federal officials and employees traveling in their official capacities on government business, including military service. Looks like any baseball team (including the Cubs or the White Sox) will not be able to play baseball in Chicago if they are travelling in from California, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, Florida, Georgia or Wisconsin.

[homer]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/07/27/wisconsin-added-chicago-quarantine-order-what-to-know/5521773002/

 

Even if your test comes back negative, you still have to complete the 14-day quarantine.

 

I don't understand how something like that can be legal.

 

It just amazes me that the ACLU was so quick to jump all over the Kaci Hickox case when it involved ebola, which kills nearly 50% of the people after they start showing symptoms, and they sit silently while quarantines are ordered for people who have a negative test in hand. Fear has destroyed justice and science.

 

I have viewed the details of the Chicago order and it states that the exceptions to the order are...a person who works in critical infrastructure as designated by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. “Essential worker” includes any state, local, and federal officials and employees traveling in their official capacities on government business, including military service. Looks like any baseball team (including the Cubs or the White Sox) will not be able to play baseball in Chicago if they are travelling in from California, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, Florida, Georgia or Wisconsin.

 

It's going to be impossible to enforce and if they do the offender will take them to court and likely win. Without any kind of federal action I see no way that states can prevent the disease from crossing borders.

 

Re: ACLU - they had the following to say about police checkpoints during the stay at home order. I'll give them a day or two to release something on this. I hope they do:

 

The ACLU of Illinois issued a statement opposing the use of checkpoints by the Chicago Police Department as part of enforcement of the stay at home order.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

So two things happened in my life this weekend:

 

So what was the point of me telling you all that? This whole situation has degraded into (and I think we all know this already) "I'm/my side is right and you're an idiot if you don't agree with me" and "everyone needs to follow the rules, unless they inconvenience me then I can do whatever I want".

 

The least flexible people I encounter are those who a) Loved being homebodies before COVID and b) Haven't sacrificed anything whatsoever and are still drawing paychecks.

 

The irony of it is that they are the first to say their beliefs are dictated by doing what's best for our society, yet they show the least empathy of anyone.

[madbad2000]

So two things happened in my life this weekend:

 

So what was the point of me telling you all that? This whole situation has degraded into (and I think we all know this already) "I'm/my side is right and you're an idiot if you don't agree with me" and "everyone needs to follow the rules, unless they inconvenience me then I can do whatever I want".

 

The least flexible people I encounter are those who a) Loved being homebodies before COVID and b) Haven't sacrificed anything whatsoever and are still drawing paychecks.

 

The irony of it is that they are the first to say their beliefs are dictated by doing what's best for our society, yet they show the least empathy of anyone.

 

 

Thats an interesting observation. I would say my experience differs from that dramatically in that those that have maintained work are very flexible, understanding and grateful for still having a job and certainty during these difficult times. My observations go closer to the red/blue narrative in that where you track politically and how far to the edges on that spectrum correlates with how inflexible you are on your own beliefs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think that we are saying the same thing, sorta. By inflexible I meant that they give little thought to why someone else might still be going to point A or B, and conversely why someone else might be terrified to leave their house. It tends to be lumped into either being careless or a snowflake, when there is a lot of room in the middle for why a person makes a choice.

[LouisEly]

It just amazes me that the ACLU was so quick to jump all over the Kaci Hickox case when it involved ebola, which kills nearly 50% of the people after they start showing symptoms, and they sit silently while quarantines are ordered for people who have a negative test in hand. Fear has destroyed justice and science.

I don't know why, but it could be because Ebola is transmitted through bodily fluids, most commonly blood and vomit, which makes transmission much more difficult than breathing on someone.

 

Only two people on US soil have ever been infected with Ebola, and both recovered. The US is pushing 150,000 deaths from COVID. While the survival rate of Ebola is much lower, the infection rate is isn't even in the same universe as COVID.

[stoutdude04]

Mandatory masks for Wisconsin starting Saturday.

[reillymcshane]

I see so many stories about people getting COVID that I'm hesitant to mention them anymore as often the facts aren't all out there. But this one was kind of crazy.

 

A YMCA camp in Georgia ended up having 260 positive COVID cases. If I read the article correctly, the camp had 120 staff plus another 138 staff-in-training. There were 363 campers.

 

Should note that they only had test results for 344 of the staff and kids - so that number could rise. Of those who tested positive, 76% were symptomatic (that would likely go down if more people were tested, as the the asymptomatic types are less likely to go in for a test).

 

Likely causes: Large cabins with minimal ventilation, regular singing and cheering.

 

https://www.livescience.com/summer-camp-covid-19-outbreak.html

[stoutdude04]

Read a story about a school in Indiana that had to go into lock down because a student in the school that day tested positive.

 

It was the first day of school.

 

My grandpa tells me that if the Wisconsin mask mandate gets shot down then Evers is shutting schools down. No idea where he heard it, but if so...let's just wear the masks.

[hawing]

I've wondered how many people that have been tested and came back negative felt like and went on to live their life like they have full immunity taking no precautions whatsoever.

I've got an example of that in my extended family - my cousin's husband (early 60s). In my cousin's words, he "hasn't followed any of the Covid precautions since day one..so when he came back last weekend from a fishing trip up north with friends, and the news that one of them along with that friends family members, had tested positive, we had to go into quarantine. My husband did get tested on Thursday ( not fun!)...its been awful to wait.....but just got a call now-he tested negative! Relief! At least for now relief, until he gets exposed to it again."

 

The "until" wasn't even a day. A few hours later, she posted that he visited the home of someone who has been exposed to the virus.

 

The husband has a lengthy history of doing as he pleases, with little if any forethought or regard for others. He's had his share of health problems and is likely to be at extra risk for severe complications if he catches it.

It looks like this COVID experience might be the final straw for my cousin, who is contemplating leaving him and the marriage.

[LouisEly]

It looks like this COVID experience might be the final straw for my cousin, who is contemplating leaving him and the marriage.

Tell her to give it a couple of months and that decision might be made for her.

[homer]

 

Likely causes: Large cabins with minimal ventilation, regular singing and cheering.

 

https://www.livescience.com/summer-camp-covid-19-outbreak.html

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/

The super-spreader–event triad seems to rely on three V’s: venue, ventilation, and vocalization. Most super-spreader events occur at an indoor venue, especially a poorly ventilated one (meaning air is not being exchanged, diluted, or filtered), where lots of people are talking, chanting, or singing. Some examples of where super-spreader events have taken place are restaurants, bars, clubs, choir practices, weddings, funerals, cruise ships, nursing homes, prisons, and meatpacking plants.