COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[CheezWizHed]

Anything north of West Bend is Up North

 

People from Milwaukee will definitely refer to places like the Wisconsin Dells as "Up North". I have never asked what they would consider Hayward etc. as...probably Canada.

 

As someone that grew up North of Hayward and went to school in Milwaukee, I can answer... yes. They think it is Canada.

[homer]

Anything north of West Bend is Up North

 

People from Milwaukee will definitely refer to places like the Wisconsin Dells as "Up North". I have never asked what they would consider Hayward etc. as...probably Canada.

 

Oh I'm sure there are people in Milwaukee that call Platteville "Up North"

[jerichoholicninja]

CDC says you need 15 minutes of close contact with someone to be at risk, mask or not. Unless you stop to have a chat with someone, you're not having 15 minutes of close contact with anyone in a store. Even 5 minutes probably isn't going to happen. I know that that doesn't mean transmission is impossible under 15 minutes but it certainly seems much less likely. I just went to Menards this morning. The closest I came to another person was the cashier checking out and that was for about 45 seconds. For all the people supposedly not wearing masks out and about I can't see that really causing much spread. At least not any more than it was over the summer.

 

The only thing that has changed in the last month or so that would lead to increased prolonged close contact among people is school openings. Yet, back in spring we were told that the risk of spread in schools was minimal and that the school closures at the time were unnecessary and the study someone posted before said the same thing. So, who knows what's going on.

[homer]

CDC says you need 15 minutes of close contact with someone to be at risk, mask or not. Unless you stop to have a chat with someone, you're not having 15 minutes of close contact with anyone in a store. Even 5 minutes probably isn't going to happen. I know that that doesn't mean transmission is impossible under 15 minutes but it certainly seems much less likely. I just went to Menards this morning. The closest I came to another person was the cashier checking out and that was for about 45 seconds. For all the people supposedly not wearing masks out and about I can't see that really causing much spread. At least not any more than it was over the summer.

 

The only thing that has changed in the last month or so that would lead to increased prolonged close contact among people is school openings. Yet, back in spring we were told that the risk of spread in schools was minimal and that the school closures at the time were unnecessary and the study someone posted before said the same thing. So, who knows what's going on.

 

***Data are insufficient to precisely define the duration of time that constitutes a prolonged exposure. Recommendations vary on the length of time of exposure, but 15 minutes of close exposure can be used as an operational definition. Brief interactions are less likely to result in transmission; however, symptoms and the type of interaction (e.g., did the infected person cough directly into the face of the exposed individual) remain important.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html

[igor67]

There are levels of risk, and I would strongly suspect that the actual risk posed by activities also depends on the current number of infections. As far as I am aware there isn't anything magical about minute 15 of close contact compared to minute 13 or 14. So the number really should be thought of as representing a high enough increased risk to justify scarce contract tracing resources.

Put another way I will currently shop Menards in MN, but I would not in WI. For some context using only reported cases the statewide prevalence is 0.005%. So using a simple probability model the odds of walking into a Menards in WI with a total of 50 employees and customers gives a 77% chance no one in the store has Covid. at 75 people it is 68% and 100 people has the chance of nobody having it down to 61%. Using MN number I'm getting 90% chance with 50 people and still at an 80% chance with 100 people. There are all sorts of issues with that simple of a model, but the general point is that the increase in cases for whatever reason has pretty dramatically changed how risky some activities are. I think that fits some of the narrative an initial pulse driven significantly (but not only) by college students led to other kinds of community spread and now a big chunk of people are catching it doing things they had been doing for awhile.

[Machu Peach]

There are levels of risk, and I would strongly suspect that the actual risk posed by activities also depends on the current number of infections. As far as I am aware there isn't anything magical about minute 15 of close contact compared to minute 13 or 14. So the number really should be thought of as representing a high enough increased risk to justify scarce contract tracing resources.

Put another way I will currently shop Menards in MN, but I would not in WI. For some context using only reported cases the statewide prevalence is 0.005%. So using a simple probability model the odds of walking into a Menards in WI with a total of 50 employees and customers gives a 77% chance no one in the store has Covid. at 75 people it is 68% and 100 people has the chance of nobody having it down to 61%. Using MN number I'm getting 90% chance with 50 people and still at an 80% chance with 100 people. There are all sorts of issues with that simple of a model, but the general point is that the increase in cases for whatever reason has pretty dramatically changed how risky some activities are. I think that fits some of the narrative an initial pulse driven significantly (but not only) by college students led to other kinds of community spread and now a big chunk of people are catching it doing things they had been doing for awhile.

 

Small nitpick on what I assume is a typo, but ~30,000 confirmed active cases / 5.8 million people = ~0.5%.

 

Your overall point is very well taken.

[igor67]

Thanks for the catch, yes the classic copying the number straight off the calculator kind of typo.

[SoCalBrewfan]

You might only be interacting with the cashier for a few minutes, but think of the poor cashier and what their day and risk profile looks like.

[jerichoholicninja]

You might only be interacting with the cashier for a few minutes, but think of the poor cashier and what their day and risk profile looks like.

 

Are there abnormally high numbers of store cashiers, bar tenders, restaurant wait staff, teachers, ect. that are testing positive? I did a real quick google and all I found was where COVID "could" be highly transmissible based on conditions but no hard data. I would think it would be rather easy to compile this information and would give us a good sense of the type of situations and environments where COVID is spreading. Remember when grocery store workers were considered "front line workers" back in spring - I don't remember hearing about massive amounts of them getting COVID.

[homer]

The 15 min thing is also missing the indoor ventilation issue. You can be 15 feet away from someone and if the ventilation is poor its very possible to catch the virus. This is why I won't be eating inside a restaurant for quite a while.

[Jimbo]

You might only be interacting with the cashier for a few minutes, but think of the poor cashier and what their day and risk profile looks like.

 

Are there abnormally high numbers of store cashiers, bar tenders, restaurant wait staff, teachers, ect. that are testing positive? I did a real quick google and all I found was where COVID "could" be highly transmissible based on conditions but no hard data. I would think it would be rather easy to compile this information and would give us a good sense of the type of situations and environments where COVID is spreading. Remember when grocery store workers were considered "front line workers" back in spring - I don't remember hearing about massive amounts of them getting COVID.

 

Three weeks ago a H.S. classmate of mine died from COVID (age 54, Dane County). She was a bartender, a second job to acquire some spending cash. Will never know if she caught it from a patron, but plausible. So it does happen.

[TURBO]

The 15 min thing is also missing the indoor ventilation issue. You can be 15 feet away from someone and if the ventilation is poor its very possible to catch the virus. This is why I won't be eating inside a restaurant for quite a while.

 

I'll never be caught in a restaurant during this pandemic, I even am a bit uneasy about drive-thrus and take out.

[stoutdude04]

My hockey league starts Sunday. 4 guys on my team have tested positive. Dont think we will be playing this Sunday.

[tmwiese55]

Kind of surprised they were even trying for hockey. Everything like basketball and softball, volleyball has been ruled out already in Madison, along time ago. was hoping for bowling in January but I doubt that too. I guess if you are still more 'up nort' it's obviously a bit different though. Hopefully you find a way to get some games in.

 

Fairly in depth article here from the JS with a WI tilt to it if you haven't seen it.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/14/america-had-worlds-best-pandemic-response-plan-playbook-why-did-fail-coronavirus-covid-19-timeline/3587922001/

[LouisEly]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/survey-of-16k-us-respondents--political-uncertainty-drives-mistrust-of-covid-19-vaccine-301153380.html

 

Survey of 16,000 people in the US, and 65% say they will wait to get the vaccine until either their doctor approves or until "enough people" get it to know it works.

 

Hopefully lots of doctors have outreach programs to their patients and the community letting them know that they believe it's safe and have taken it themselves. 35% compliance isn't going to accomplish much.

 

11% say they'll never take it. I think the only thing that might change their mind is if a close friend or family member dies... or winds up with a $100,000 hospital bill.

[Machu Peach]

That's depressing. ...but pandering to vaccine skeptics has it's consequences. I wonder what overlap between the "Trust the science/wear a mask/take this seriously" crowd and the "Vaccines aren't safe/I'm going to wait" crowd is?

[AKCheesehead]

I'm having a hard time making up my mind whether or not to come to Wisconsin to visit my family for the holidays. It's not a fun decision.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I'm having a hard time making up my mind whether or not to come to Wisconsin to visit my family for the holidays. It's not a fun decision.

 

Yeah, same. Sucks.

[tmwiese55]

Speaking of travel, good news on flying. I know you were talking more about being in WI itself, but somewhat relevant. Hopefully this holds true and gets back up by other studies.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

[homer]

I'm having a hard time making up my mind whether or not to come to Wisconsin to visit my family for the holidays. It's not a fun decision.

 

Yeah, same. Sucks.

 

My in-laws don't want us to come. Sort of made the decision for us.

[Menotti80]

Checking this thread put for the first time in a long time. All I can say is wow.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Speaking of travel, good news on flying. I know you were talking more about being in WI itself, but somewhat relevant. Hopefully this holds true and gets back up by other studies.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

 

I'd get on a plane tomorrow. The problem is what you do once you're there and if the destination will even let you in. I had a trip to New Mexico for November I just cancelled due to their quarantine. I officially killed one to Japan for March, as there is just no way we go from banned to leisurely in five months.

[DHonks]

So far in AZ we’re not finding COVID spread in schools, it’s the parties the kids are attending. My school has no known cases, but two neighboring high schools have 50-100 kids in quarantine for possible exposure. We have almost no subs available, and one of those high schools has had 5 teachers resign in the last two weeks. COVID isn’t helping AZ’s 2100 teacher-less classrooms.

[PlayerHader]

So far in AZ we’re not finding COVID spread in schools, it’s the parties the kids are attending. My school has no known cases, but two neighboring high schools have 50-100 kids in quarantine for possible exposure. We have almost no subs available, and one of those high schools has had 5 teachers resign in the last two weeks. COVID isn’t helping AZ’s 2100 teacher-less classrooms.

 

My HS in north central WI has been in session for about 6 weeks now. We’re probably up to 10-12 positive cases over that time, and at one point had ~150 of ~850 students quarantined. We’ve basically been told we won’t be going full virtual unless we don’t have staff to handle students. We have a large group lecture room and have set up tables at one end of our field house where we classes have gone when teachers are out quarantined (staff instructs from home if able).

 

We began the year with 3 options: full time virtual (our school has a separate virtual “school”, this filled up), full-time in person (vast majority chose this), and a hybrid option (in-person every other day, watch class from home every other, I think under 20% chose this).

 

We’ve had requests for a full-time virtual “in-house” option, and it sounds like that will be rolled out within a couple weeks. Chaotic, stressful, but so far it’s been better than the spring, no doubt.

[owbc]

I'm having a hard time making up my mind whether or not to come to Wisconsin to visit my family for the holidays. It's not a fun decision.

 

Yeah, same. Sucks.

 

My in-laws don't want us to come. Sort of made the decision for us.

 

Same. My parents said to stay away.

 

I don't think I'm going to have many friends/family left in Wisconsin once this blows over, anyone with the means seems to be plotting their escape.