COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[reillymcshane]

My wife's organization's modeling shows things are going to get worse over the next 3-4 weeks. And their modeling has been pretty good.

 

This is scary because the hospitals are getting pushed to capacity already. And you could see COVID cases dramatically increase - perhaps even double.

[jjfanec]

My wife's organization's modeling shows things are going to get worse over the next 3-4 weeks. And their modeling has been pretty good.

 

This is scary because the hospitals are getting pushed to capacity already. And you could see COVID cases dramatically increase - perhaps even double.

 

Well that is really unfortunate. Is there any prevailing theories about why the death rate remains so low? Often with this many cases per day the death numbers go way up but Wisconsin's have stayed under 20 a day for the most part. Is it that we are see more young people get it? Is it too soon to see the increase in death rate?

[tmwiese55]

I'd guess it's still a bit too early to see it, at least in comparison to past increases. However, one would think the rate would still be relatively lower in this case with the presumption being young people were a big part. Plus, treatment just has to be getting better as time goes on. Testing is better so maybe folks are getting ahead of it a bit more than they would've been several months ago too.

 

Plus, deaths have gone up in the last couple weeks. Maybe not to the level a term like spike would imply, but they have gone up.

[adambr2]

Didn't we sort of do this backwards in Wisconsin?

 

Wouldn't March/April have been the right time to say, "Hey, be safe out there. Wear a mask when you go out. Keep your distance from people. "

 

And right now the time to be saying, "Shelter the hell in place, we need to flatten that curve."

 

I feel like we utilized these two strategies in exactly the opposite times from when they were appropriate. We didn't need to shut down Wisconsin in March, and we really shouldn't be traveling unnecessarily at all right now.

[igor67]

In the spirit of genuine discussion I think FV was using these CDC stats

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

Heart disease: 647,457

Cancer: 599,108

Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936

Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201

Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383

Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404

Diabetes: 83,564

Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672

Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633

Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

 

But that would suggest lumping in Chronic lower respiratory deaths which I am sure includes all kinds of things, which is an interesting comparison. I think more crucially looking at all of the top 10 list there means that covid went from not existing to being number 3 on the list for causes of death. That is pretty dramatic. For some additional context there were only 16,214 murders in the US in 2018. With cancer sitting at 600,000 I don't think covid will chase that number down given the forecasts out there, but a final tally once some of the adjustments can be made for early undercounting might get uncomfortably close.

[tmwiese55]

Didn't we sort of do this backwards in Wisconsin?

 

Wouldn't March/April have been the right time to say, "Hey, be safe out there. Wear a mask when you go out. Keep your distance from people. "

 

And right now the time to be saying, "Shelter the hell in place, we need to flatten that curve."

 

I feel like we utilized these two strategies in exactly the opposite times from when they were appropriate. We didn't need to shut down Wisconsin in March, and we really shouldn't be traveling unnecessarily at all right now.

 

Probably accurate in hindsight or in a perfect scenario. At the beginning though there was the big unknown to it all, which at least has gone away to some degree. Plus, if the stay at home stuff had gone on longer and/or been more adhered to the numbers would've gotten to a lower point before more opening up and mingling, which would make numbers lower now.

 

And then for right now in our current state, I'd generally view it as impossible to get a shutdown resembling March/April going again now with the current mindsets out there. Remember a faction of the government immediately sued back then to block it and is suing now just over masks and continues to plow on acting like it's nothing. Add in that businesses have already taken such a big hit. Plus, the big unknown of it all is gone now.

 

ETA: To Igor's post. And fundamentally the logic that lots of people die every year so who cares if a bunch of people is just so wrong. Apply to other stuff and it immediately shows how dumb it is.

[nate82]

 

As a reminder, 2020 U.S. COVID Deaths: 212,000 and counting. For additional perspective, the H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic resulted in 12,469 U.S. deaths in 2009.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm

 

 

If the Swine Flu had been more deadly as this COVID is it would have resulted in as many or more deaths. The H1N1 was basically just a bad flu but if it would have morphed into something like COVID-19 it would have been bad. The mismanagement of the H1N1 virus was as bad as the current mismanagement of COVID-19 we just lucked out that it wasn't as deadly as COVID-19. The current infections for COVID-19 is about 7.5 million and the total for H1N1 from April 2009 to April 2010 was estimated at 60.8 million by the CDC.

 

We were very very very lucky that the H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic wasn't as deadly as COVID-19 is. If the H1N1 Swine Flu was as deadly as COVID-19 you are looking at 300-400k dead. We hit the luck lottery on the H1N1 Swine Flu for it not being as deadly.

 

We should have learned our lesson from H1N1 but there was very little done to prepare for the next virus.

[pacopete4]

My question is, what can be done? What really can you do to be prepared for these situations? They’re all so different. Now, I think you can react differently but I’m just not sold on the preparation piece.

[tmwiese55]

 

As a reminder, 2020 U.S. COVID Deaths: 212,000 and counting. For additional perspective, the H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic resulted in 12,469 U.S. deaths in 2009.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm

 

 

If the Swine Flu had been more deadly as this COVID is it would have resulted in as many or more deaths. The H1N1 was basically just a bad flu but if it would have morphed into something like COVID-19 it would have been bad. The mismanagement of the H1N1 virus was as bad as the current mismanagement of COVID-19 we just lucked out that it wasn't as deadly as COVID-19. The current infections for COVID-19 is about 7.5 million and the total for H1N1 from April 2009 to April 2010 was estimated at 60.8 million by the CDC.

 

We were very very very lucky that the H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic wasn't as deadly as COVID-19 is. If the H1N1 Swine Flu was as deadly as COVID-19 you are looking at 300-400k dead. We hit the luck lottery on the H1N1 Swine Flu for it not being as deadly.

 

We should have learned our lesson from H1N1 but there was very little done to prepare for the next virus.

 

Not knowledgeable here so real question. Wouldn't the less deadliness of the H1N1 allowed for a lesser response? Which would inherently let more infections happen? Somewhat in the same way people are still saying that's what we should be doing with covid since its not thaaat deadly in terms of deathrate. In the H1N1 case that approach seemingly would be accurate based on how less deadly it was and that were treatments for it. Of course that doesn't speak at all to what would've happened if it was the same virus as current corona. But the inverse doesn't seem fair either?

 

Don't think anyone would disagree more preparations for the next one shouldn't have been done. That said, it seemed there was at least efforts, groups, and departments put in place after H1n1 to at least try (who knows if they'd have failed anyway) but of course those were gotten rid of by the current administration so we never got to know.

[LouisEly]

Didn't we sort of do this backwards in Wisconsin?

 

Wouldn't March/April have been the right time to say, "Hey, be safe out there. Wear a mask when you go out. Keep your distance from people. "

 

And right now the time to be saying, "Shelter the hell in place, we need to flatten that curve."

 

I feel like we utilized these two strategies in exactly the opposite times from when they were appropriate. We didn't need to shut down Wisconsin in March, and we really shouldn't be traveling unnecessarily at all right now.

Maybe. We don't know what would have happened if everything wasn't shut down. The fact that some of the early deaths were in Fond du Lac and that there was an early case in Bayfield suggests that it was out there. It hit NYC, Seattle, Chicago, and San Francisco first because that is where the most traffic to/from China is and it spread because of population density, but it was in some rural areas.

 

I've always been a fan of giving people choices. I've gone back and forth on whether it would have been a good or bad idea to have said, "you either have to wear a mask or you have to sign something that if you contract COVID you waive your right to get treatment". Give a choice, but let there be consequences for that choice. Don't know how they would have enforced that at hospitals, but it might have made people think twice. In marketing it is called a nudge - create hassles and consequences for not doing what you should do.

 

What should have happened is that the state health department should have been doing random checks on business and fining them/pulling their license for not abiding by capacity limits and staff not wearing masks. That worked really well in Chicago, as several restaurants/bars lost their license or got big fines. Businesses got in line real quick.

[LouisEly]

This might work, too:

 

[stoutdude04]

Most of the signs around where I live say, 'due to laws we will not ask you where you arent wearing your mask' or something to that effect.

[nate82]

 

Not knowledgeable here so real question. Wouldn't the less deadliness of the H1N1 allowed for a lesser response? Which would inherently let more infections happen? Somewhat in the same way people are still saying that's what we should be doing with covid since its not thaaat deadly in terms of deathrate. In the H1N1 case that approach seemingly would be accurate based on how less deadly it was and that were treatments for it. Of course that doesn't speak at all to what would've happened if it was the same virus as current corona. But the inverse doesn't seem fair either?

 

Don't think anyone would disagree more preparations for the next one shouldn't have been done. That said, it seemed there was at least efforts, groups, and departments put in place after H1n1 to at least try (who knows if they'd have failed anyway) but of course those were gotten rid of by the current administration so we never got to know.

 

That would only be true in hindsight knowing that it was less deadly than something else. The current administration basically did the same thing as what happened in 2009. They took the same actions that were taken then but went a little bit beyond with the travel bans. I don't believe any of the departments or groups that were formed would have stopped or slowed anything down. The only thing they would have stalled would have been the reaction to the pandemic as we have seen countless times with bureaucrats and that is basically what was removed. They may have been scientists or doctors at one point in time but once they hit that government agency they become bureaucrats and nothing more.

 

The only way that any administrations would have been able to be more successful in fighting this would have been to do a total lockdown of the country that means nothing comes in and nothing comes out. That is basically an impossible goal as the country would have starved and broken down and made the pandemic even worse.

 

The biggest issue was the low stockpile of medical supplies. This can be blamed on both the current and past administration as neither did anything to replenish it. This is where the lessons learned from the last one should have been applied. The preparedness of the supplies to get things done is what was needed and not what to do when the pandemic hits as you already know it will hit and it is not a matter of if but a matter of when. By the time the pandemic was known about even if everything started in November of last year we still would have been hit as hard.

 

The country just wasn't prepared to fight this. This goes with the mask wearing going from it won't help to it is needed. The supplies were low and the fear of a supply run leaving those who actually need them without them and those who don't need them with an overabundance of them. Go back to February, March and April of this year and look at what happened to toilet paper, hand sanitizer and soap. There was a mass panic on buying these items for a time there were very limited to no supply of toilet paper in stores. Now imagine that happening to the masks in the early part of the year. The medical professionals who needed the masks wouldn't have been able to get what they needed there was actually still a shortage at that time.

 

The medical supplies were the only thing I can think of that was reasonable for this administration and the last administration where something should have been done differently. If this were more like the H1N1 virus I don't believe we would be having the conversations we are having now. It would probably be more like the COVID-19 what? You mean the bat flu?

[wallus]

Most of the signs around where I live say, 'due to laws we will not ask you where you arent wearing your mask' or something to that effect.

 

Our business has masks required or no entry on our door. We have been enforcing it all week and it will be interesting to see how it goes on a busy weekend. I am assuming I will get yelled at like I have done for a few weeks.

[Thurston Fluff]

I did a yard decoration today to a kid who has covid. I'm masked up as usual but both the mom and dad had to come out and talk to me maskless. Is it that hard to show some respect for those who are trying to stay virus free? That

in a nutshell is why were are where we're at.

[nate82]

Early indications are showing that schools are not super spreaders.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/

 

The fear mongering behind the schools are not safe and will increase the spread need to stop.

[homer]

I've been a proponent of elementary kids going back to school.

[tmwiese55]

Nice. Thing that pops in my head though, based on how I read that data in there, is who knows how many are getting it but never being tested since they have little to no symptoms but then go home or out in the world and pass, as well as among the kids and trickle down from there out to rest of the world. Of course, no way to know either if they got there or somewhere else so can't blame schools regardless. There's just no way to know that as of now, which is fine, either way that's good news so far. Sure seems to be a correlation with the current spikes going on, but of course correlation doesn't mean causation for sure.

 

That kind of goes back to something we talked about a few days ago and kind of pre-screen type testing as opposed to after the fact, which would get to better data on what that article was looking at. But overall I get the vibe or impression that protocols and such are being very much adhered to in schools, as much as one can reasonably expect. So hopefully that's doing it's part to keep in check. plus, going in we knew this was the least vulnerable demographic so you can in theory be ok with some of it being passed around there(like in the possible unknowns I mentioned) while letting kids be kids. Just then need the rest of the world to kind of take some it more seriously too like it seems the schools are.

 

As an example, I just had a friend who is a teacher who had no reason to think he had it. Went to get tested so he could go to see his parents knowing he's negative, turns out he had it. With kids you'd think this is very possible. But all they can do is keep trying and keep tracking as much as they can.

[TURBO]

Each school is only as good as the adults in charge when it comes to preventing the spread. It doesn't just happen naturally, I can promise you that. I teach high school, it is a constant battle all day long, every hour to make the kids keep their masks on properly, and to stay away from each other. It is exhausting to have to do that all day long, plus do the rest of the job.

 

If schools let the kids behave how they want, I can promise you that more than half wouldn't be wearing a mask, probably 75% is coser, and there wouldn't be an ounce of social distancing. When they leave the building, all bets are off as they don't act like we are in the middle of a pandemic at all. They exit the building in gropus of 5 or 6 right on top of each other, then pile into cars together. They still have their gatherings at each other's houses, and the parents seem to be fine with it.

 

A parent threw a birthday party a couple weekends ago, one of the kids ended up positive, so starting on that Monday 9-10 kids went on 2 week quarantines. That is just one example, there are more. It is a contstant new daily list of kids that are temporarily virtual (meaning they are sick, have been exposed by a family member, or are waiting for test results), as well as new kids being added to the full virtual list daily.

 

Taking attendance is it's own frustration every hour of every day as we try to match up the kids that are present, the kids out sick, the kids on temporary virtual and the kids that have gone full virtual since the previous day, to our class rosters. Then we have to start class with the kids in the room and incorparate the kids that are virtual. It is a total nightmare.

 

Not to mention the fact that the teachers are responsible for sanitizing everything that has been touched, desks, door handles, supplies, chairs, soap dispensors, faucet handles, etc in the 5 minutes we are allowed between classes. Doing this as the new class enters the classroom is another wonderful add on to the day.

 

Total and complete exhaustion, and that is not including planning lessons, covering classes for absent teachers (because NO ONE wants to come into school buildings to substitute teach during this fiasco), and the other regular daily jobs of a teacher.

 

I envy any and every teacher that got to retire after last year's sh*t show ending... I use to feel bad that that was how they went out, now I just wish I was one of them.

[jerichoholicninja]

Early indications are showing that schools are not super spreaders.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/

 

The fear mongering behind the schools are not safe and will increase the spread need to stop.

 

March: We have to close the schools to stop the spread!

June: Most of the rest of the world didn't close schools or opened them back up and everything turned out fine.

August: We can't open the schools! We need to prevent the spread!

October: We are starting to get an evidence-based picture of how school reopenings and remote learning are going and the evidence is pointing in one direction. Schools do not, in fact, appear to be a major spreader of COVID-19.

 

Look, I'm not taking a stand one way or the other. I can't even decide which way I stand. But this back and forth, lack of consensus on so many things about COVID is why people have stopped caring.

[PeaveyFury]

But this back and forth, lack of consensus on so many things about COVID is why people have stopped caring.

 

No, the main reason is still selfishness and indifference. But your point is also problematic- people have no patience for a novel virus. They want to know exactly what to immediately, and they also have nothing but disdain and skepticism when that guidance changes as more is found out.

[tmwiese55]

Turbo, thanks for your service.

 

Jericho, yea some of that is jumping to conclusions and trying to give answers right now in the moment. Along with trying to find anything they can to support their preconceived view. When the reality is it's unknown and the process is playing out in real time. Most scientific things happen behind the scenes and all kinds of tests/theories, etc are worked on before a conclusion is drawn. Now we all want answers so they put something out and of course the media outlets know the topic is clicks. That article is seemingly just like that. It's one study and, as long as I read that data correctly, was able to see a potential hole in automatically declaring it as a 'see, schools don't spread'. Really it should be a step in the process and then gain more and better data. It wasn't long ago folks on here were proclaiming bars don't, now schools don't either, well where does it then? I guess just ceremonies at the white house? IDK, my vibe right now is the numbers are too high in general to know for sure where things are coming from one way or the other out in the real world. I'd guess that would've been a benefit of starting at lower numbers but we never did, so now it's just too widespread to trace anything.

 

Good post peavy.

[owbc]

But this back and forth, lack of consensus on so many things about COVID is why people have stopped caring.

 

No, the main reason is still selfishness and indifference. But your point is also problematic- people have no patience for a novel virus. They want to know exactly what to immediately, and they also have nothing but disdain and skepticism when that guidance changes as more is found out.

 

Yes, exactly, thank you.

 

One of the craziest things about this whole pandemic is how every single place in the world has different rules, 6+ months in it is quite obvious what works and what doesn’t, and yet nothing seems to be changing.

 

You have situations like turbo which sounds completely miserable, meanwhile other places have entirely remote schools, no exceptions, and near perfect compliance with the rules. So much unnecessary suffering.

[igor67]

The data is rather surprising, but it is somewhat early. I know the MN data had started to show noticeable increases in the second half of September for example. Just as important though is that I can confirm everything turborickey said. There big barriers some fiscal, but pure space issues, staffing, and other logistics that make keeping schools from being superspreading locations a huge ongoing issue.

[tmwiese55]

You mean a coordinate national response would've been good, huh shocker.

 

Going back to before schools issues we spitballed here. What are you guys seeing in terms of the substitute teacher potential shortage/issues? I've seen a few articles pop up recently but who knows how much of that is just kind of confirming what they predicted to seem right. Not to say it wouldn't at least be some kind of problem, just curious from you out there on your experience on it so far?