COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[tmwiese55]

Science would tell you a piece of cloth will not stop of 20 Angstrom sized virus when the equivalent of a vacuum cleaner is installed behind that piece of cloth.

 

Link to support your claim?

 

Plenty of science to support the opposite:

 

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449

 

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know

 

Here are a couple pre-COVID studies that look at mask use and disease transmission.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

 

Interesting, thanks. If I read this correctly on the cloth/medical it could mean many of the more 'stylish' or comfortable ones that have become common aren't as effective as we'd think. So some study or better guidance there could be needed and that could be a factor in the spread still hovering around. I remember something a couple months ago saying the kind of sleek/mesh type ones aren't good. I also read this to mean medical as not specifically the N95 but the more common masks, since they mention a comp between the two later.

 

Good post socal.

[homer]

Re posting this article about ventilation and Covid. Great overview of droplets vs aerosols and how masks fit into the equation:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/

[igor67]

For those not inclined to read the articles, spread is not driven by naked virus particles. It is the particles plus the water the pick-up in your mouth. The bigger those particles end up the less far they spread. Masks can help filter those out somewhat, but the bigger effect is increasing the humidity inside your mouth as you breath and increasing the droplet size. The theory behind all of that to my understanding pre-dates Covid. The empirical question was whether or not that change would significantly altering the rate of spread.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Here are a couple pre-COVID studies that look at mask use and disease transmission.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

 

I found the following chart and commentary from the initial link very interesting:

 

Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it has a lot more to do with fatigue than stupidity. People don't panic for 7 months, they adapt. Everyone knows 3-degree days are on the horizon and they want to get out while they can.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Tuesday has traditionally been the "bad" day for case counts since this thing started. I'm worried what we will find out this afternoon re: Wisconsin's latest numbers.

 

+2,367 ... which isn't nearly as bad as I had thought it would be. I mean, still terrible, but not catastrophic.

[tmwiese55]

I think it has a lot more to do with fatigue than stupidity. People don't panic for 7 months, they adapt. Everyone knows 3-degree days are on the horizon and they want to get out while they can.

 

I'd agree with that sentiment being a big part too. I think I mentioned something similar in a recent post on people dipping their toes in a bit more and living more, and its tough to blame them/us after this long.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think it has a lot more to do with fatigue than stupidity. People don't panic for 7 months, they adapt. Everyone knows 3-degree days are on the horizon and they want to get out while they can.

 

I'd agree with that sentiment being a big part too. I think I mentioned something similar in a recent post on people dipping their toes in a bit more and living more, and its tough to blame them/us after this long.

 

Which is really the way we were told it was supposed to work. Flatten the curve, then get back to work and most other activities. In a modified way, sure, and that's where some of the debate lies. But we knew all along the virus would still be out there in full force, but states have now had 6 months to prepare, and there's plenty of testing available.

 

We can talk about masks for 10 more pages, and we probably will. Yet we all know even best case, masks have a marginal positive effect. What bothers me at this point is the biggest problem is still the problem. People who go out knowingly having Covid, or have symptoms and go out without getting tested and staying home until results come back negative.

 

That is the message that should be hammered home, yet you really don't hear it much. I'm guessing it's because it's obvious, unfortunately it's not obvious to those who are ignoring it. We still don't have enough information to know if asymptomatic people are significant spreaders, but we definitely know symptomatic people are.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yet we all know even best case, masks have a marginal positive effect.

 

There is literally no one saying this in this thread, and there is plenty of evidence to back up the idea that they do have a substantial positive effect in minimizing spread.

[tmwiese55]

Yup agree for the most part. The problem or difference from the plan you mentioned is our numbers never got down to a lower re-starting point (well I guess that's debatable on what is low enough) similar to what Europe got down to. But last I read on Europe in the last week-ish they've been ticking back up recently since opening up much more, of course it's easier to manage those surges starting from a lower point, which we never got to.

 

On what gets hammered points, IDK I've thought that's been clear but everyone sees/reads different stuff so who knows. Personally what I've felt has been missed by the general pop is how it can take days to show symptoms so those days before you're aware you could be spreading to whoever else, including vulnerable folks. And the masks point I'd disagree too.

[igor67]

Fatigue certainly makes it easy to rationalize taking modest extra risks here and there. MN cases also look like they are going up by a fair amount. The positivity rate though is so high in WI right now in comparison I don't know how to weigh that in a reliable way. We are certainly thinking about it and how we interact with family in WI these days.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

When I said fatigue I just meant that I think a lot of people know they're doing stuff that probably isn't what the CDC would tell them to do but they are tired of living scared. If your kid is in sports right now you are likely in that category. There has to be some acceptance that some of us need to move on to some degree to stay sane. There is a difference between that and going to a bar to pack in like sardines with a bunch of sweaty drunk strangers and scream in their ear all night. I think we can have some middleground.

[PeaveyFury]

When I said fatigue I just meant that I think a lot of people know they're doing stuff that probably isn't what the CDC would tell them to do but they are tired of living scared. If your kid is in sports right now you are likely in that category. There has to be some acceptance that some of us need to move on to some degree to stay sane. There is a difference between that and going to a bar to pack in like sardines with a bunch of sweaty drunk strangers and scream in their ear all night. I think we can have some middleground.

 

‘Fatigue’ may be having an effect, but my personal observation is that it’s the people/demographics who didn’t care to take precautions in the first place that are taking less precautions.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2,887 new cases today. Wisconsin is Ground Zero.

[owbc]

When I said fatigue I just meant that I think a lot of people know they're doing stuff that probably isn't what the CDC would tell them to do but they are tired of living scared. If your kid is in sports right now you are likely in that category. There has to be some acceptance that some of us need to move on to some degree to stay sane. There is a difference between that and going to a bar to pack in like sardines with a bunch of sweaty drunk strangers and scream in their ear all night. I think we can have some middleground.

 

I agree with this but it only works when the background level of COVID in the community is very low and you can contact trace the positives. That's the case in some parts of the country right now and not others. I don't worry about stretching the rules a bit when I am, but I am very reluctant to travel to anywhere where COVID is more widely present in the community.

 

The situation in Wisconsin is too bad but everyone knows it happened because very easy and simple guidelines were not followed.

[Machu Peach]

There are many reasons why pandemics spread to some locations and not others. Quantifying and ranking those reasons is extremely difficult.

 

Certainly compliance to population-level mitigation efforts is one of those reasons. In my experience compliance has been pretty bad in most geographical areas (my work-travel is considered essential) with rural areas being significantly more non-complaint than urban areas (...though urban areas have generally had much more disease than rural areas). However, compliance is just one factor and I doubt it's the only factor involved in the recent increase in cases in the Midwest.

[logan82]

Fon du Lac then North and East of there is awful right now. Hospitals are filled or filling up.

[jjfanec]

When I said fatigue I just meant that I think a lot of people know they're doing stuff that probably isn't what the CDC would tell them to do but they are tired of living scared. If your kid is in sports right now you are likely in that category. There has to be some acceptance that some of us need to move on to some degree to stay sane. There is a difference between that and going to a bar to pack in like sardines with a bunch of sweaty drunk strangers and scream in their ear all night. I think we can have some middleground.

 

‘Fatigue’ may be having an effect, but my personal observation is that it’s the people/demographics who didn’t care to take precautions in the first place that are taking less precautions.

 

This! 100 percent this. I have family in rural Wisconsin, live in Milwaukee, and spend time in the surrounding suburbs. Compliance is all across the board. I have been numerous places were people are not trying to find a middle ground, they are essentially flaunting that they dont care.

[FVBrewerFan]

https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa170/5906459

 

Interesting news from Oxford.

[Machu Peach]

https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa170/5906459

 

Interesting news from Oxford.

 

The article is from Pakistan, not Oxford.

[reillymcshane]

We are going to get a new state-wide emergency order from the governor regarding COVID. Probably see some limiting of number of people in restaurants, limits of people at events, stuff like that.

[FVBrewerFan]

https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa170/5906459

 

Interesting news from Oxford.

 

The article is from Pakistan, not Oxford.

 

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-09-28-regular-covid-19-testing-for-groups-most-likely-to-spread-the-virus-more-efficient-cost-effective-than-random-testing

 

My mistake, I was reading several articles, copy/pasted the wrong one. THIS is the one I meant to post originally.

[tmwiese55]

I'd generally agree with that, like why not have teachers, hospital workers, probably even grocery, factories, etc have a regular test every Monday morning. Basically if you're doing it to make sure athletes and actors work environments are as covid free as possible why not do it for normal people too. I saw ideas like that months ago pointing out the flaw in that people will likely have had it for a bit and potentially passing before getting tested, and then waiting for multiples days for results, in some cases. Essentially the damage would have already been done.

 

 

On the WI topic that was just mentioned. Dane County also is at a new high for hospitalizations right now. Seems we need to buckle down for a few weeks and get the numbers back down.

https://www.postcrescent.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/01/wisconsin-coronavirus-hospitalizations-worry-staff-who-fear-surge/3574106001/

[PeaveyFury]

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-09-28-regular-covid-19-testing-for-groups-most-likely-to-spread-the-virus-more-efficient-cost-effective-than-random-testing

 

My mistake, I was reading several articles, copy/pasted the wrong one. THIS is the one I meant to post originally.

 

‘We have seen over the course of the pandemic that certain groups, such as healthcare and social care workers that are in frequent close contact with others, are more likely to pass on COVID-19 than other groups, for example those working from home,’ explains Susskind. ‘Focusing testing on groups who are at particular risk of spreading COVID-19 at regular intervals is a far better use of scarce testing resources than testing the entire population at random, as has recently been discussed globally.’

 

I think this is both logical and completely unsurprising. If there's a way to re-open at a larger scale and safer, it has to involve some sort of testing protocol to try and catch asymtomatic spread, which continues to be one of the largest problems with the virus. It obviously makes more sense to test front-line workers with the potential to be 'super-spreaders' like HCWs, teachers, etc. than it does to have companies test people that work in their own office each day, etc. Developing testing protocols for those high-risk workers will be key.

[tmwiese55]

I was just talking with a hospital worker about exactly this a few days ago and how much sense it would make for them. Came up since someone in their group just got a positive test, likely getting it from her kid (but obviously who knows) and this hospital just had to get rid or at least some new limits(can't recall exactly) on visitors due to a visitor having it. The assumption is the visitor brought it in, but really who knows if it wasn't the other way around.