COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[SoCalBrewfan]

More from the Nature piece (dated Sept 9) I linked above:

 

For COVID-19, which has an estimated infection fatality ratio of 0.3–1.3%1,5, the cost of reaching herd immunity through natural infection would be very high, especially in the absence of improved patient management and without optimal shielding of individuals at risk of severe complications. Assuming an optimistic herd immunity threshold of 50%, for countries such as France and the USA, this would translate into 100,000–450,000 and 500,000–2,100,000 deaths, respectively. Men, older individuals and those with comorbidities are disproportionally affected, with infection fatality ratios of 3.3% for those older than 60 years and increased mortality in individuals with diabetes, cardiac disease, chronic respiratory disease or obesity. The expected impact would be substantially smaller in younger populations.

 

So they say above that 50% is probably too low for herd immunity, but even if we optimistically assume that it's enough, that's 500K-2.1M deaths in the US. If it takes getting to 67%, the math is obviously substantially worse. Like many here, I have at least five loved ones in the high risk category, and I'm probably at least medium risk due to asthma. Even if it didn't have a chance of affecting me directly, that's an unacceptable loss of life. And that's not including the direct cost of care or the broader economic impact of so many cases and deaths.

[PeaveyFury]

Regarding the fair point that SoCal made earlier about the 'herd immunity through infection' idea, I think it's worth noting that it sadly seems that there's a lot of 'we know more about the virus now than we did back when people were sanitizing their mail' folks who use early response to a novel virus as their own evidence of why a particular reaction or proposed solution should be viewed with skepticism, while not themselves being willing to acknowledge that early virus-dismissive responses have also been shown as problematic or downright false. If both sides would just acknowledge that things are found to be accurate or inaccurate regarding this pandemic as time progresses, we'd all be better off.

[reillymcshane]

Things getting interesting in upper Wisconsin and surrounding territories. Every hospital in Duluth is diverting new patients out of the city. One major network in the north/central area has suspended all elective surgeries. Everyone is just running out of beds and/or staff to care for patients.

 

Multiple things are happening:

 

1. COVID hospitalizations are rising really quickly and taking up more and more beds. Hospitals are seeing 3-4 times the number of COVID patients compared to just two week ago. These aren't huge numbers - going from 1 to 4 or 3 to 10 - but when a lot of the hospitals aren't that big, it just starts taking up a lot of space (and the attention of healthcare workers).

 

2. A lot of people - for a variety of reasons - have avoided coming to the doctor the last few months. By doing so, many of these people have avoided treating some sort problem. Well, they are now starting to show up - and in much worse shape that if they had come in a month or two ago. What could have been dealt with via a prescription or identified early with an x-ray or exam - is now sending the person to the emergency room - and hospitalization.

 

3. Doctors, nurses and staff are getting scarce in some places as these people get COVID - or are quarantined because they work or live with someone who has gotten the virus. Hospitals are scrambling in some places to fill staff. Some places would like to add more beds - but just don't have the staff to handle any extra people.

 

It's been a tough week. You'll probably see more and more places start to cancel elective surgeries - although the healthcare systems don't want to do that. Those are the kinds of things that make them a lot of cash. But it is happening - and will probably start happening in other places around the state.

 

A big scary thing is the upcoming flu season. It's going to make things confusing. However, if people wear masks, it would really help prevent the spread of the regular flu. So there's hope that the flu season might not be as harsh as in past years.

 

On the positive side, hospitals are learning more and more about COVID, and are able to discharge people a lot quicker.

[owbc]

It's so strange/terrifying to read about places where COVID cases are still increasing...it's obvious that the basic precautions work so why are people not doing it? It's unbelievable, really. Wear a mask and avoid people indoors. That's it. Meanwhile, the K-shaped recovery is absurd and I don't think people realize how much money people in tech are making right now. In the Seattle area (2.2 million people) we're averaging 2 hospitalizations and 1 death per day. Mask compliance is 100%.

 

The idea of herd immunity is a freaking joke. Lately we've been around 50 cases per day, so Seattle is on pace to reach herd immunity sometime around the year 2075.

[LouisEly]

My brother-in-law is an administrator at a hospital system in northwest WI. I don't know about right now, but earlier this summer he said the biggest issue is reilly's #2. There aren't really that many COVID hospitalizations to overwhelm the system; it's predominantly the people who have avoided coming in for things that could have been prevented who waited too long.

 

As for why people don't take basic precautions, I think its 1) they don't watch the news or only get their "news" from social media, and 2) if they don't personally know anyone who has died or been hospitalized/seriously ill, they don't believe it will happen to them. It's been over six months now, and if they don't know anyone who has been seriously infected by now they will start to tune out the message.

[reillymcshane]

My brother-in-law is an administrator at a hospital system in northwest WI. I don't know about right now, but earlier this summer he said the biggest issue is reilly's #2. There aren't really that many COVID hospitalizations to overwhelm the system; it's predominantly the people who have avoided coming in for things that could have been prevented who waited too long.

Yeah, this is what my wife has seen (she's an exec at a healthcare system). Only now the COVID hospitalizations are rising. While it was 2 or 3 a couple of months ago, now it's 20. They are seeing that all over the system.

[reillymcshane]

It's so strange/terrifying to read about places where COVID cases are still increasing...it's obvious that the basic precautions work so why are people not doing it? It's unbelievable, really. Wear a mask and avoid people indoors. That's it. Meanwhile, the K-shaped recovery is absurd and I don't think people realize how much money people in tech are making right now. In the Seattle area (2.2 million people) we're averaging 2 hospitalizations and 1 death per day. Mask compliance is 100%.

Where I live - central Wisconsin - I bet 1/3 to 1/2 the people don't where masks when out. They do when an essential store requires them (such as a grocery store), but tons of the places don't wear them, or require people to wear them. My wife went to a salon and every single stylist (she said there were 5-6) weren't wearing masks, and only one customer was.

 

I think a big thing that happened was that for a lot of America the virus was in the news early on - but people didn't see the affects. I'm not talking about cities. I'm talking about outside the cities, especially in rural areas. They saw all these predictions of problems and stuff - and what happened - virtually nothing - at least for a few months.

 

This made people wonder if it was really that bad. And were we doing the right thing, etc., etc.

 

If COVID had hit - and killed 200,000 in April and swept into every town in the nation - no one would be arguing about wearing masks or whatever. Instead, it was a slow trickle, often times a big nothing in some places. For many, it was a classic Boy Who Cried Wolf scenario. No one in their home town or family was sick. No one they knew had died. And for that, we were shutting down businesses and schools and sports. It was, in the eyes of many, overkill.

 

It's made people skeptical - even now - of the seriousness of things.

 

Sadly, this allowed some of the more fringe-type things to flourish. COVID is being used to impose socialism on the people, or it's a hoax to torpedo Trump's re-election, etc., etc.

 

But for many Americans, I still think they look at COVID and say, "It's not that big of a deal." Yes, some people are dying. It's just a 'bad flu'.

[LouisEly]

I think a big thing that happened was that for a lot of America the virus was in the news early on - but people didn't see the affects. I'm not talking about cities. I'm talking about outside the cities, especially in rural areas. They saw all these predictions of problems and stuff - and what happened - virtually nothing - at least for a few months.

 

This made people wonder if it was really that bad. And were we doing the right thing, etc., etc.

 

If COVID had hit - and killed 200,000 in April and swept into every town in the nation - no one would be arguing about wearing masks or whatever. Instead, it was a slow trickle, often times a big nothing in some places. For many, it was a classic Boy Who Cried Wolf scenario. No one in their home town or family was sick. No one they knew had died. And for that, we were shutting down businesses and schools and sports. It was, in the eyes of many, overkill.

This is exactly it.

[homer]

"what you see is all there is" syndrome

 

WI is the biggest hotspot in the country right now. Be safe, people.

[LouisEly]

Especially Winnebago County (Oshkosh, Neenah, Menasha) and Eau Claire

[reillymcshane]

Friend of mine sent me a photo he took two nights ago. He ordered take out food from a local bar/restaurant. Place was filled up. No one had masks on (including staff). No one was spaced out.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Friend of mine sent me a photo he took two nights ago. He ordered take out food from a local bar/restaurant. Place was filled up. No one had masks on (including staff). No one was spaced out.

 

There is a term for the people who choose to operate that way – covidiots.

 

Seriously, bars and restaurants are some of the biggest spreading issues right now. It's not about politics or infringing on rights, it's about exercising common sense.

[TURBO]

Friend of mine sent me a photo he took two nights ago. He ordered take out food from a local bar/restaurant. Place was filled up. No one had masks on (including staff). No one was spaced out.

 

There is a term for the people who choose to operate that way – covidiots.

 

Seriously, bars and restaurants are some of the biggest spreading issues right now. It's not about politics or infringing on rights, it's about exercising common sense.

 

If only Americans still possessed common sense. It seems to have gone out, like bell bottoms, mohawks, and parachute pants.

[tmwiese55]

"what you see is all there is" syndrome

 

WI is the biggest hotspot in the country right now. Be safe, people.

 

Thing is with how mass communication is now so easy you can see what's happening all over the world instantly. This should be a good thing. Italy happened, NYC happened. Instead it's ended up as a way to actually deter people and pit them against each other and to undermine. It's actually having a negative affect.

[reillymcshane]

I talked to a friend who's daughter is a junior at UW-Madison - as well as an RA in one of the dorms. He had this story: On his daughter's first night as an RA, she and another RA went to a room to deal with a noise complaint. They found 27 people in the one dorm room. Obviously, no distancing going on there. No masks.

[logan82]

My father who I respect greatly and I used to think possessed a rational mind compared wearing masks to the helmet law. PERSONAL FREEDOM. I think wearing a mask is more like driving after consuming many many drinks and not knowing if they had alcohol or not. You are possibly endangering other people. You could be drunk and kill people or you could be fine. I hate masks. I would prefer to never wear one again. I don't want to go to work until I can go in without one. I am lucky I have the option to work from home. Quit being selfish and suck it up for the 20-30 minutes you actually have to wear one publicly indoors.

 

Please please please listen to science.

[JosephC]

Science would tell you a piece of cloth will not stop of 20 Angstrom sized virus when the equivalent of a vacuum cleaner is installed behind that piece of cloth.

 

Nice that the state's biggest newspaper has finally figured out that this is not strictly a college town problem.

 

Why has the Wisconsin Department of Health completely removed the following statement from their website?

However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

 

It's so very interesting that Evers delayed the facemask order, saying that he didn't think he could legally do it. So he sat around until July 26 and then implemented it on July 30.

https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EmO01-FaceCoverings.pdf

Let's look at the COVID-19 graph and see exactly where the state was in late July.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/wisconsin/

Did Evers intentionally wait until an anticipated peak number of cases was reached, anticipating that a decrease would follow and then they could crow about the facemask mandate being a huge success? Looked like the plan many have working for about a month. Now it looks like the order is a complete bust. People not wearing masks at all? Or people making stupid decisions because they have the false sense of security from a mask? We don't know for certain.

 

It's very hard to rationalize #4 on page 3 of the facemask order. If leaders truly believed that facemasks were beneficial, why would that exception be included? Do the people who write the laws believe the masks are beneficial at all? Or do the people who write the laws just believe that they are above it all?

 

Anybody check out Iowa's graphs recently, the closest state that has been "very lazy" with stay-at-home initiatives and mask mandates.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/iowa/

Flattening the curve?

 

The virus will do what the virus wants to do. Really want my opinion after all the questions from above? If you are interested in protecting yourself, stay at home.

[stoutdude04]

 

The virus will do what the virus wants to do. Really want my opinion after all the questions from above? If you are interested in protecting yourself, stay at home.

 

I would love to stay home.

 

I have to go to work.

[PeaveyFury]

Science would tell you a piece of cloth will not stop of 20 Angstrom sized virus when the equivalent of a vacuum cleaner is installed behind that piece of cloth.

 

Link to support your claim?

 

Plenty of science to support the opposite:

 

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449

 

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know

[PeaveyFury]

My father who I respect greatly and I used to think possessed a rational mind compared wearing masks to the helmet law. PERSONAL FREEDOM.

 

This is, IMO, largely the continuing issue with masks- a misguided understanding of what the PURPOSE of the mask actually is. All of the 'you can't live in fear/it's a personal choice' stuff on social media is driven by the incorrect belief that the mask is to protect YOURSELF. It's not, unless you have an N95. Wearing the mask is to reduce the chance of you transmitting it to OTHERS. A lot of people either don't understand it, or don't care to understand it due to how absurdly politicized the issue has become.

 

Helmet laws are the exact opposite- they're there to protect you. I guess if you personally choose to put yourself at risk by not wearing a helmet, ok then. But equating the two is an illustration of a lack of understanding. If you 'make a personal choice' not to wear a mask, you're consciously choosing to endanger others out of personal selfishness.

[tmwiese55]

It's likely because people aren't listening to it and there is no way to enforce it. And I don't think security/police etc should go around getting in fights/confrontations about it. If I leave Madison and go to any rural areas like where I'm from there is literally 0 people wearing masks anywhere (granted my sample size is low). My biggest activity in all this has been golfing. In those areas if you pop in to grab drinks or bathroom the bars are bellied up and crowded with 0 people wearing masks. I have friends who bartend in those areas, 0 people wear masks and if you did you'd likely get made fun of for it. In the one I have gone in a couple times you get ripped on for even suggesting rona is real and to be concerned about as that makes you a lib. One friend runs a fairly large bar in a smaller city in the valley and he said everyone of the bartenders has had it. Plus of course people are just doing more and getting out an about more, everyone is dipping their toes in the water to some degree and expanding their circles. Can't blame people for it really, can't do nothing forever.

 

Other factor on the number is of course bringing colleges back and obviously the kids being lax on it. This is one reason I'm not super concerned on the WI increase right now though. But when you see the highest hospitalizations we've had it does open eyes.

 

I don't think it's really fair to blame the governor by not listening to the mandate and then saying 'see the mandate doesn't work'. This has worked throughout the world. I do grant that since masks mandate in Madison people are more prone to get close in the grocery store than previous, I've certainly had a few "cmon man" moments.

[homer]

Tuesday has traditionally been the "bad" day for case counts since this thing started. I'm worried what we will find out this afternoon re: Wisconsin's latest numbers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Tuesday has traditionally been the "bad" day for case counts since this thing started. I'm worried what we will find out this afternoon re: Wisconsin's latest numbers.

 

My guess is 3,000+. What's the point of a mask mandate if no one takes it seriously, and no law enforcement offices uphold it?

[Machu Peach]

Science would tell you a piece of cloth will not stop of 20 Angstrom sized virus when the equivalent of a vacuum cleaner is installed behind that piece of cloth.

 

Link to support your claim?

 

Plenty of science to support the opposite:

 

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449

 

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know

 

Here are a couple pre-COVID studies that look at mask use and disease transmission.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

[SoCalBrewfan]

Science would tell you a piece of cloth will not stop of 20 Angstrom sized virus

 

I used to think this, and said it out loud to people back in march. Fortunately humans are disgusting gooey creatures who do not simply emit raw streams of viruses, but rather tend to embed them in moist sticky little blobs that are tens of micrometers.

 

I think some of what is hard is that masks are not individual protection, but rather population protection. The goal is reducing odds of transmission but you're not reducing them to zero. But this is a numbers game, and knocking percentages off of every possible transmission event can help, potentially dramatically, at the population level. Will it guarantee an individual safety? No. Can it make a difference on a larger scale? Evidence suggests that it can, but it's just one piece of the puzzle.