COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

[stoutdude04]

Welp, my first student just got sent home to quarantine for 14 days.

[pacopete4]

We have had quite a few in our district and a couple at my school now.

[stoutdude04]

We had one entire class get shut down. One of my athletes is getting tested this morning and is in quarantine.

[hawing]

I work a few blocks north of the UW-Madison dorms that are currently quarantined, and a few blocks west of most of the Greek houses that are quarantined. Yay! But my building is only open by appointment, currently nine hours per week, so I just do my thing in my office and eat right there. My current work does not put me in contact with any researchers.

[HiAndTight]

We had one entire class get shut down. One of my athletes is getting tested this morning and is in quarantine.

 

Yeah, it's not the least bit surprising. I'm constantly amazed how people just don't seem to get it. My Uncle's in town and he loves the Fish Fry at a particular restaurant. We ordered takeout. The place was packed...~200 people in this place, it was a small place, everyone was shoulder to shoulder...and I saw 2 other people wearing masks and about half the staff.

 

My Uncle is 80 years old. But there are so many others who appeared to be in high risk groups. A pregnant women was standing around at the bar, morbidly obese people.

 

These seems to be a level of arrogance about Covid...where people just assume it won't be a big deal. As soon as I opened the door I wanted to turn around and walk out, but he wanted to pick up the food. We ended up waiting for about 15 minutes.

 

 

I can only imagine how much worse it is for HS kids who are at the lowest risk and who are arrogant and think they're invincible to begin with.

 

I really hope everyone's wrong about how bad this will get this fall/next spring...but it won't be for lack of trying based on the behavior of most people I see.

[stoutdude04]

Yea. I actually feel bad for my HS kiddo. Her mom moved her sister in to college over the weekend. Sister and boyfriend tested positive. Mom got a cold around Wednesday. Mom tested positive. Athlete called me crying blaming her sister and mom for ruining our season.

 

That's what stinks. One person can do everything correct and still have to deal with the consequences of others. And now shes out til october 1st no matter if she gets tested or not. Full disclosure. If I was in college yet I most assuredly wouldnt follow masking and social distancing rules.

[wallus]

Full disclosure. If I was in college yet I most assuredly wouldnt follow masking and social distancing rules.

 

You were practicing social distancing from class freshman year tho...

[HiAndTight]

Yea. I actually feel bad for my HS kiddo. Her mom moved her sister in to college over the weekend. Sister and boyfriend tested positive. Mom got a cold around Wednesday. Mom tested positive. Athlete called me crying blaming her sister and mom for ruining our season.

 

That's what stinks. One person can do everything correct and still have to deal with the consequences of others. And now shes out til october 1st no matter if she gets tested or not. Full disclosure. If I was in college yet I most assuredly wouldnt follow masking and social distancing rules.

 

Yeah, if I was in College, I'd definitely be one of those idiots who was throwing a party getting half the athletes sick.

 

One of the reasons I'm not actually against the B10 playing this year. Those kids are actually safer and monitored far more closely than if they weren't playing. They're watching their symptoms, checking their hearts regularly if they test positive. But I just can't imagine how this works out like it is in the NFL or MLB.

[stoutdude04]

Full disclosure. If I was in college yet I most assuredly wouldnt follow masking and social distancing rules.

 

You were practicing social distancing from class freshman year tho...

 

I would have that going for me at least!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We've still had zero confirmed cases. Middle and High School did but elementary has been clean thus far.

[nate82]

We've still had zero confirmed cases. Middle and High School did but elementary has been clean thus far.

 

That kind of makes sense that Middle and High School would have a break out as the ages you are talking about in Middle and High School are closer to an adult age. These are also the ages when puberty hits and you start to see more intimate interactions in this age group. There is also more affection being shown by Middle and High School aged people than you would see in the elementary aged people.

[homer]

A lot of people predicted a big uptick in cases at the college level for all the reasons mentioned above. The key is for people that test positive to stay the hell away from other people particularly faculty, maybe workmates, family, etc. I think one of the models even admitted that they didn't foresee people testing positive going out in spite of that fact.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We've still had zero confirmed cases. Middle and High School did but elementary has been clean thus far.

 

That kind of makes sense that Middle and High School would have a break out as the ages you are talking about in Middle and High School are closer to an adult age. These are also the ages when puberty hits and you start to see more intimate interactions in this age group. There is also more affection being shown by Middle and High School aged people than you would see in the elementary aged people.

 

I have a suspicion that a not insignificant number of younger kids already got this and it just wasn't enough of an alarm to be tested or documented. Almost nothing has been cancelled in our area. My first grader is in soccer, falling on top of kids, wrestling them at practice, just being a goofy kid. He is in full-time in person school. He's been mildly ill a couple times since March but never seriously.

 

I just find it inconceivable that no elementary-aged kids in a town of 15k people have had it. It's probably been inside the building this school year already.

[nate82]

A lot of people predicted a big uptick in cases at the college level for all the reasons mentioned above. The key is for people that test positive to stay the hell away from other people particularly faculty, maybe workmates, family, etc. I think one of the models even admitted that they didn't foresee people testing positive going out in spite of that fact.

 

The Middle and High School age group is basically the same as the college aged group in terms of social interactions. There really isn't much of a difference between the three groups when you are looking at social interactions. The only difference would be workforce involvement and the College and High School aged groups basically share this with a small percentage of the Middle School aged group sharing this also.

 

If you are modeling something and you don't take into account people in the United States defying a mandate your model is incomplete. Just looking at the history of the United States you have to take this into account. The United States has been a very rebellious country when it comes to mandates on freedoms as this can be seen in almost every single generation. The only years where there were very few rebellious times you have to go back to the 40's and part of the 50's but the rebellious age then came back starting in the 60's and hasn't stopped since.

[nate82]

 

I have a suspicion that a not insignificant number of younger kids already got this and it just wasn't enough of an alarm to be tested or documented. Almost nothing has been cancelled in our area. My first grader is in soccer, falling on top of kids, wrestling them at practice, just being a goofy kid. He is in full-time in person school. He's been mildly ill a couple times since March but never seriously.

 

I just find it inconceivable that no elementary-aged kids in a town of 15k people have had it. It's probably been inside the building this school year already.

 

Generally speaking kids are petri dishes of diseases. I wouldn't be surprised if the elementary aged group have already achieved an immunity to it or close to reaching it. Not saying they can't get it but they may have built up some immunities where it mitigates it to being a mild cold or a mild flu.

 

There has also been some recent studies to see if the flu vaccine may actually be hurting Americans more than it is helping. At least the theory is that the countries that do not hand out a flu shot each year are showing a faster turn around and are not seeing a resurgence of cases. Though this hypothesis may be wrong it does have some scientific merit to it.

[homer]

A lot of people predicted a big uptick in cases at the college level for all the reasons mentioned above. The key is for people that test positive to stay the hell away from other people particularly faculty, maybe workmates, family, etc. I think one of the models even admitted that they didn't foresee people testing positive going out in spite of that fact.

 

The Middle and High School age group is basically the same as the college aged group in terms of social interactions. There really isn't much of a difference between the three groups when you are looking at social interactions. The only difference would be workforce involvement and the College and High School aged groups basically share this with a small percentage of the Middle School aged group sharing this also.

 

If you are modeling something and you don't take into account people in the United States defying a mandate your model is incomplete. Just looking at the history of the United States you have to take this into account. The United States has been a very rebellious country when it comes to mandates on freedoms as this can be seen in almost every single generation. The only years where there were very few rebellious times you have to go back to the 40's and part of the 50's but the rebellious age then came back starting in the 60's and hasn't stopped since.

 

 

There are plenty of college kids that work in settings with adults who are at-risk particularly those that are health care type majors.

 

And defying a mandate is one thing. Defying common sense is something totally different. The model had nothing to do with a mandate. It was naive to think that college kids would actually be responsible and stay isolated even after testing positive. They figured kids would ignore mask and social distancing guidelines and mandates. They didn't think they'd be so selfish as to knowingly infect other people.

[nate82]

 

 

There are plenty of college kids that work in settings with adults who are at-risk particularly those that are health care type majors.

 

And defying a mandate is one thing. Defying common sense is something totally different. The model had nothing to do with a mandate. It was naive to think that college kids would actually be responsible and stay isolated even after testing positive. They figured kids would ignore mask and social distancing guidelines and mandates. They didn't think they'd be so selfish as to knowingly infect other people.

 

It is just naive to not model in something where the majority of the age group think they are invincible and can do anything with very little to no consequences. That age group tends to rebel against everything and anything which also includes common sense. Just putting it at 10% of that age group not following any kind of guidelines or mandates which would also include knowingly infecting other people should put you within your error threshold.

 

In this age group there have been studies about STD's being knowingly transmitted. So there really isn't an excuse to not have this in the model all of the data points are there. In this age group you have plenty of data that shows people who have HIV and knowingly that they do have it but yet don't tell their partner or continue to participate in activities where transmittal is very high. If you think this age group is going to act differently because of a pandemic that is not naive but just poor modeling on the modeler.

[jerichoholicninja]

Daily case numbers in the European Union and United Kingdom this week reached record highs of more than 45,000 on a 14-day notification rate, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and new restrictions are being imposed in places that were well into reopening. Leaders have raised fears over the pressure that hospitals could face in coming months and the looming prospect of new national lockdowns.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/europe-second-wave-coronavirus-intl/index.html

 

All these places that have had supposedly "beaten" the virus have had it come back. And in some cases worse than before. The virus is going to do what it wants until we can effectively treat it. We can't mask and socially distance it away.

[homer]

I said it was naive.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/health/university-illinois-covid.html

 

Heres the whole story in case you are interested.

 

If there was some way to incentivize people to stay isolated after testing positive I'd be all for it.

[nate82]

I said it was naive.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/health/university-illinois-covid.html

 

Heres the whole story in case you are interested.

 

If there was some way to incentivize people to stay isolated after testing positive I'd be all for it.

 

I don't think there is a way to incentivize people to stay isolated. It would be a whole cultural shift and change and it is a little bit too late for that as people become set in their ways. The elementary age kids will probably be more accepting to socially distance themselves when testing positive but the current age group is just not going to happen.

 

Sorry wasn't attacking you just attacking the model and the model builder on not putting this in a model. To me it is just someone being lazy and not putting it in as we have data that shows this age group is rather risky. It is the reason why insurance models for these age groups weight heavily on high risk. It just doesn't make any sense to me why you would model something knowing this age group tends to participate in activities that are high risk and then expect them to isolate themselves when having a positive test.

 

The data for STD's alone shows us that this would be a false premise and would need to be included in the model. It just doesn't make any sense to leave this out in the model unless the person or people behind the model didn't want to include it for some kind of agenda which happens a lot in these models.

[logan82]

Daily case numbers in the European Union and United Kingdom this week reached record highs of more than 45,000 on a 14-day notification rate, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and new restrictions are being imposed in places that were well into reopening. Leaders have raised fears over the pressure that hospitals could face in coming months and the looming prospect of new national lockdowns.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/europe/europe-second-wave-coronavirus-intl/index.html

 

All these places that have had supposedly "beaten" the virus have had it come back. And in some cases worse than before. The virus is going to do what it wants until we can effectively treat it. We can't mask and socially distance it away.

We can't and I don't think they thought that we ever could. It was just a way to keep the peak lower. It doesn't take much to overwhelm a small town hospital. This is going to be with us for a while and if we care at all to keep the deaths low we need to mask and social distance.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Humans are creatures of adjustment. You can see this all over the world before Covid. In a war torn village across the world people adjust to danger and have a different threshold for risk. They will do things every day that much of the West wouldn't consider. It's out of necessity, yes, but their threshold for fear changes too.

 

That is happening with this and it will continue to happen. People exhaust of the fear and most of them, eventually just say screw it. I'm going back to the bar, I'm going to Disney World, we're having our wedding, etc. IMO social distancing has run its course. I think most have decided they're not willing to pause life for a year+. There is a cost to it that increases the longer this goes. We need drugs at this point. The rest of it just feels like busy ants marching.

[nate82]

Humans are creatures of adjustment. You can see this all over the world before Covid. In a war torn village across the world people adjust to danger and have a different threshold for risk. They will do things every day that much of the West wouldn't consider. It's out of necessity, yes, but their threshold for fear changes too.

 

That is happening with this and it will continue to happen. People exhaust of the fear and most of them, eventually just say screw it. I'm going back to the bar, I'm going to Disney World, we're having our wedding, etc. IMO social distancing has run its course. I think most have decided they're not willing to pause life for a year+. There is a cost to it that increases the longer this goes. We need drugs at this point. The rest of it just feels like busy ants marching.

 

Kind of reminds me of Syria. While there were bombs and rockets being dropped on a city that was really close to Damascus there were still parties going in Damascus. I will have to search for the images again but there was one someone posted on instagram that shows an explosion just outside Damascus but the party still went on at the club.

[jerichoholicninja]

Humans are creatures of adjustment. You can see this all over the world before Covid. In a war torn village across the world people adjust to danger and have a different threshold for risk. They will do things every day that much of the West wouldn't consider. It's out of necessity, yes, but their threshold for fear changes too.

 

That is happening with this and it will continue to happen. People exhaust of the fear and most of them, eventually just say screw it. I'm going back to the bar, I'm going to Disney World, we're having our wedding, etc. IMO social distancing has run its course. I think most have decided they're not willing to pause life for a year+. There is a cost to it that increases the longer this goes. We need drugs at this point. The rest of it just feels like busy ants marching.

 

Yup. There was an article in our newspaper recently that looked at pandemics in 1900's. Spanish flu, Polio, SARS in the 70's, and something else. In all of them, after about a year the general public returned to life as normal despite the continuing threat of the disease. Governments can make all the rules and regulations they want but unless they are going to line the streets with armed guards to enforce them people are still going to exercise their free will.

[TURBO]

Basically, we are a weak and selfish culture.

 

That pretty much sums it up.

 

I haven't enjoyed the mask wearing, social distancing and the lack of social interaction at all, but it is for the good of the community, the people I love, etc, so I have done what needs to be done. (if I am honest with myself, there are times when using the pandemic as an excuse not to see some people works out great, often in fact. lol)

 

It's too bad that so many only think about themselves and are unable to inconvenience themselves, even for the greater good.