The Brewers Aren't Clutch?

[bjamesw22]

SABR is the rule. Computers will be taking over the clubhouse by 2009. Didn't you know?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

[huntsvillefan]

I have a couple of questions - Is it 98% accurate (Al) or 95% accurate (Rluz), I know statistics is an imprecise science but both these numbers aren't correct.

Does 98% (or 95%) accurate mean that it always comes to within 98% of the actual runs scores - or that it correctly comes to actual runs scored 98% of the time?

[EdgarDiazRocks]

No studies have really found any evidence of protection having a statistical effect on a player large enough to be detected.

 

In the big picture maybe yes, maybe no.

 

But in the individual "percieved season", maybe yes.

 

Again, looking at only one example, Dale Murphy in 1987 . . .

 

AVG/OBP/SLG

None on .322 /.412 /.629 307AB 46 BB

RISP .247/.457/.545 154AB 58 BB (29 IBB!)

 

Obviously the opposition was pitching around Murphy with men on base and it affected his numbers both up (obp) and down (slg and avg)

 

Now was the tactic succesful? it's hard to tell beacause the Braves pitching was so bad that it didn't matter anyway, but certainly Murphy's HOF chances were dented by years of this abuse that he wouldn't have recieved if he were in a more balanced lineup.

 

In his case alone I must say that indeed protection mattered because it is keeping him out of Cooperstown

[rluzinski]

I said 95% because I haven't done a systematic study on the subject, so I felt it was in my best interest to be conservative. I used the word "within" 95% because I was simply telling you what I found for the Brewers (and other teams from time to time).

 

To say "always" would be foolish in nearly anything we study in baseball. Here is this season in the AL:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/Dogs.gif

 

12 of the 14 are within 95%. Did I screw up Baltimore or have they somehow squandered a rediculous amount of scoring opportunities?

[bjamesw22]

But again, this doesn't predict what WILL happen, it's just telling us that with the stats that teams already have that the numbers come out. When these "stats" predict how a composition of players would perform together then they would mean something. Until then, they are useless stats that do nothing more than tell you what you should already know about the team based on their performance.

 

I am perfectly comfortable saying that if I was able to look at a 5 year history of these stats, that I could visually look at a new set of stats of a team and get within 5-10% of what their actual runs scored were.

 

So what did these stats tell me? Nothing that I couldn't have pretty much figured out myself.

[pogokat]

note to self: whenever i draft my fantasy baseball team next year, forget the stats and just ask bjames who is good...

[bucky2win]

I don't understand what Fantasy BB has to do with real BB. Never have partaken. I do know Fantasy Football has nothing to do with reality. A QB could pass for 400 yards and 3 TD's in a loss. Great stats still a loss. Help me understand how the comparison of Fantasy BB and reality is valid.

[Brian the Automator]

i've deleted 2 posts in this thread because the hatfield/mccoy feud is really detracting from the site. I will continue to do so in the future as I see them.

[RightFieldCoder]

Back on topic of the Brewers RISP woes are overstated this year:

 

I do think RISP is overstated. People who casually follow the Brewers tell me they'll start being good when the Brewers hit better with RISP. They fail to mention, or even realize, that the teams batting average overall is 26th. If this number ever goes up to the top 10 and we still have a low RISPBA, then it is anti-clutch. Right now, we don't have guys that can hit with no one on. Saying they can't hit with runners on is anti-clutch is missing the forrest for the trees.

[RightFieldCoder]

 AB R OBP SLG S-RC diff % SEA 5150 668 0.318 0.397 650 18 102.74% OAK 5256 732 0.333 0.408 714 18 102.51% TOR 5172 713 0.331 0.408 698 15 102.08% STL 5192 748 0.339 0.421 741 7 100.95% LAA 5209 693 0.325 0.406 687 6 100.83% KC 5101 647 0.320 0.396 646 1 100.09% BOS 5258 853 0.357 0.456 856 -3 99.65% CHW 5113 698 0.323 0.428 707 -9 98.75% PHI 5144 730 0.346 0.416 740 -10 98.59% NYM 5093 665 0.322 0.412 676 -11 98.42% NYY 5210 818 0.355 0.450 832 -14 98.28% LAD 5044 645 0.328 0.400 662 -17 97.47% TEX 5333 817 0.331 0.475 838 -21 97.44% COL 5124 687 0.334 0.412 705 -18 97.43% CIN 5156 758 0.338 0.448 781 -23 97.09% ATL 5119 714 0.331 0.434 735 -21 97.09% TB 5221 710 0.329 0.426 732 -22 97.03% HOU 5092 641 0.321 0.406 664 -23 96.59% MIN 5178 640 0.324 0.395 663 -23 96.58% MIL 5058 670 0.329 0.420 699 -29 95.86% FLA 5132 678 0.337 0.409 707 -29 95.85% SF 5050 614 0.320 0.397 642 -28 95.71% SD 5106 636 0.334 0.393 670 -34 94.89% DET 5240 686 0.324 0.426 723 -37 94.85% WAS 5047 591 0.321 0.385 624 -33 94.75% PIT 5192 633 0.323 0.399 669 -36 94.60% CLE 5212 733 0.333 0.451 783 -50 93.64% BAL 5143 671 0.329 0.435 736 -65 91.16% ARI 5168 652 0.332 0.423 726 -74 89.84% CHC 5217 666 0.327 0.447 763 -97 87.34% 

 

Had some time at work, so I wrote this up. I don't think S-RC is 98% accurate. It is very good, but not 98%

 

 

Hmmm, maybe this is mathematical proof that the sCrubs are cursed.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

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i've deleted 2 posts in this thread because the hatfield/mccoy feud is really detracting from the site. I will continue to do so in the future as I see them.

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Thank you. I think the vast majority of people would rather have a little monitoring like this than just let the wars fester.

 

That's my opin.