Packer Defensive Roster Analysis: 2019 vs 2020

[CheezWizHed]

This chart shows my presumed starters for 2020 and the equivalent person last year in (parenthesis). Note that some times people moved up in the "role" so they don't replace themselves (i.e. Sullivan replacing Williams at Nickel CB). But I tried to slot in people where I'm guessing their approximate amount of snaps will be this year and rated what I think their increase or decrease in performance from the person doing that last year, which is often themselves.

 

[pre]Position Starter +/- Snaps Backup +/- Snaps Depth +/- Snaps Total

DE Dean Lowry 0% 50% Treyvon Hester 0% 10% 0%

(Lowry) (Keke)

NT Kenny Clark 5% 85% Tyler Lancaster 5% 20% 5%

(Clark) (Brown)

DE Kingsley Keke 5% 50% Montevarious Adams 0% 0% 3%

(Lancaster) (Adams)

OLB Z-Smith -10% 85% Rashard Gary 5% 50% -6%

(Smith) (Fackrell)

ILB Christian Kirksey 0% 90% Ty Summers 5% 5% 0%

(Martinez) (Summers)

ILB Kamal Martin 5% 65% Oren Burks 0% 5% Krys Barnes 0% 0% 3%

(Goodson) (Burks)

OLB P-Smith -10% 85% Scott/Roberts/Ramsey 0% 10% -9%

(Smith) (Gary)

LCB Jaire Alexander 5% 95% Josh Jackson -10% 10% 4%

(Alexander) (Sullivan)

RCB Kevin King -10% 80% Ka'dar Hollman 0% 10% -8%

(King) (Jackson)

Nickel/ Chandon Sullivan -10% 70% Raven Greene 10% 30% -4%

Dime (Williams) (Greene/Campbell)

FS Darnell Savage 10% 95% Will Redmond 0% 5% 10%

(Savage) (Redmond)

SS Adrian Amos 5% 95% Vernon Scott 0% 0% 5%

(Amos) (Hollman)

Total 3% improvement

 

Given Up: Yards TD Pts

2019 5642 34 313

2020* 5374 32 298[/pre]

 

A little more breakdown on each:

NT: Kenny Clark takes another step up in his play.

DE: Keke plays better than an out of position Lancaster.

OLB: Smith Brothers played so well, some regression is to be expected.

ILB: Kirksey can match Martinez if he stays healthy. Martin is a notch above Goodson.

CB: King regresses while Jaire steps up. Chandon can't quite fill Williams shoes (he played incredible).

S: Amos meshes better with another year in the system and Savage makes a second year jump.

[HiAndTight]

This chart shows my presumed starters for 2020 and the equivalent person last year in (parenthesis). Note that some times people moved up in the "role" so they don't replace themselves (i.e. Sullivan replacing Williams at Nickel CB). But I tried to slot in people where I'm guessing their approximate amount of snaps will be this year and rated what I think their increase or decrease in performance from the person doing that last year, which is often themselves.

 

[pre]Position Starter +/- Snaps Backup +/- Snaps Depth +/- Snaps Total

DE Dean Lowry 0% 50% Treyvon Hester 0% 10% 0%

(Lowry) (Keke)

NT Kenny Clark 5% 85% Tyler Lancaster 5% 20% 5%

(Clark) (Brown)

DE Kingsley Keke 5% 50% Montevarious Adams 0% 0% 3%

(Lancaster) (Adams)

OLB Z-Smith -10% 85% Rashard Gary 5% 50% -6%

(Smith) (Fackrell)

ILB Christian Kirksey 0% 90% Ty Summers 5% 5% 0%

(Martinez) (Summers)

ILB Kamal Martin 5% 65% Oren Burks 0% 5% Krys Barnes 0% 0% 3%

(Goodson) (Burks)

OLB P-Smith -10% 85% Scott/Roberts/Ramsey 0% 10% -9%

(Smith) (Gary)

LCB Jaire Alexander 5% 95% Josh Jackson -10% 10% 4%

(Alexander) (Sullivan)

RCB Kevin King -10% 80% Ka'dar Hollman 0% 10% -8%

(King) (Jackson)

Nickel/ Chandon Sullivan -10% 70% Raven Greene 10% 30% -4%

Dime (Williams) (Greene/Campbell)

FS Darnell Savage 10% 95% Will Redmond 0% 5% 10%

(Savage) (Redmond)

SS Adrian Amos 5% 95% Vernon Scott 0% 0% 5%

(Amos) (Hollman)

Total 3% improvement

 

Given Up: Yards TD Pts

2019 5642 34 313

2020* 5374 32 298[/pre]

 

A little more breakdown on each:

NT: Kenny Clark takes another step up in his play.

DE: Keke plays better than an out of position Lancaster.

OLB: Smith Brothers played so well, some regression is to be expected.

ILB: Kirksey can match Martinez if he stays healthy. Martin is a notch above Goodson.

CB: King regresses while Jaire steps up. Chandon can't quite fill Williams shoes (he played incredible).

S: Amos meshes better with another year in the system and Savage makes a second year jump.

 

I think a couple guys could and will make decent jumps this year provided they're healthy. One being Raven Greene. He looked VERY good in his role in what was a very small sample size last year, but he was a guy who kinda remade his body and came back much bigger. I think he gives you a really nice in the box backer.

 

And I think when he's not on the field as the 2nd LB'er, it's more likely to be Oren Burks. I'll be honest, I haven't seen anything out of him, but I keep hearing good things. Though...the same could have been said for Adams.

 

Sullivan looks like he's on the verge of kinda breaking out, but you're right. Tramon was our most reliable CB last year. I'd feel a lot better if they brought him back again. Pretty sure he's still a FA. Plus...3 years in and King has had one solid year where he was up and down and 2 years he did very little due to injury. So we could very easily see Sullivan playing in place of him. Ideally though, Jaire kicks down to the slot when we're in the nickel and the two longer corners can hold up outside.

 

And they absolutely HAVE to sign someone to help vs the run and I still think they will.

 

From our 1st rounders last year, I think Savage had the type of rookie year that gives you a lot of confidence he'll make that jump you're talking about. With Gary...who knows. Not spending the off-season with the team will probably hurt him, but I thought he looked good in short spurts last year. Hopefully he'll pick up some of the Smiths slack.

 

5 guys on this defense COULD become Pro-Bowl caliber players. The Two Smiths, Clark obviously and then Savage and Jaire. The later two need to be reliable.

 

 

 

This unit was really healthy last year and forced a lot of turnovers...something that generally doesn't translate that well from year to year. So if we're going to be better, it'll take a repeat of good health and most of the things you said coming to fruition.

[CheezWizHed]

Even if Williams was back, I doubt he would play as well as last year. Both natural regression to his norm and age fight against him. I think either Sullivan or Williams would play about the same in that position. I think it is a very good chance that Sullivan is playing outside CB next year for King.

 

I've given up on Burks and M. Adams. Lots of talent, but they were no where near the field last year when we really needed help at their positions. I'm guessing Burks stays on for another year simply because we don't have much at ILB, but I doubt Adams makes it through TC. I struggled to put him on the depth chart even. I'm hoping they sign a space-eating DL for depth yet this year.

 

I'll admit that health isn't a factor in my rating as I couldn't quite figure out how to put it in. Kirksey might be the better player, but Martinez was rarely injured (one game missed?) in his Packer tenure.

 

I think I left some "upside" off the list too. I wasn't looking at worst case scenarios, but I'm not convinced the Smiths will regress like I estimated (playing averages here). Lowry and Lancaster had poor years last year, but I left them there. The secondary as a unit could really gel this year with all of them in their second year together.

[HiAndTight]

Even if Williams was back, I doubt he would play as well as last year. Both natural regression to his norm and age fight against him. I think either Sullivan or Williams would play about the same in that position. I think it is a very good chance that Sullivan is playing outside CB next year for King.

 

I've given up on Burks and M. Adams. Lots of talent, but they were no where near the field last year when we really needed help at their positions. I'm guessing Burks stays on for another year simply because we don't have much at ILB, but I doubt Adams makes it through TC. I struggled to put him on the depth chart even. I'm hoping they sign a space-eating DL for depth yet this year.

 

I'll admit that health isn't a factor in my rating as I couldn't quite figure out how to put it in. Kirksey might be the better player, but Martinez was rarely injured (one game missed?) in his Packer tenure.

 

I think I left some "upside" off the list too. I wasn't looking at worst case scenarios, but I'm not convinced the Smiths will regress like I estimated (playing averages here). Lowry and Lancaster had poor years last year, but I left them there. The secondary as a unit could really gel this year with all of them in their second year together.

 

 

I think that's being a little hard on Burks. He had a torn pec last year. I wouldn't put him in the same group as Adams.

 

Burks came in two years ago as a Safety-LB'er hybrid, then was penciled into the starting lineup last year and had a serious injury.

 

And I'd agree, Williams likely wouldn't have played as well this year. But even a regression would likely still mean he's one of our 3 best CB's. I also can't see him getting more than...3-4 million. So I'm still hoping he comes back.

[CheezWizHed]

Burks did get hurt at an inopportune time last year (training camp), but he was able to play 12 games last year and had 57 defensive snaps. Given he couldn't get more time with the sorry state of our ILBs last year, I'm not optimistic that he will suddenly become a player. He couldn't outplay Campbell (replaced ILB for passing downs) nor Goodson... two players we didn't even try to retain this year.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but ...

[HiAndTight]

Burks did get hurt at an inopportune time last year (training camp), but he was able to play 12 games last year and had 57 defensive snaps. Given he couldn't get more time with the sorry state of our ILBs last year, I'm not optimistic that he will suddenly become a player. He couldn't outplay Campbell (replaced ILB for passing downs) nor Goodson... two players we didn't even try to retain this year.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but ...

 

 

Yeah, but just because he was back and could get on the field doesn't mean he was anywhere near 100 pct. You tear a pec...I don't even know how you can possibly play LB'er. Taking on a blocker become next to impossible.

 

But we'll see. I'm not even saying he's talented. I don't know that. I've seen Adams and I KNOW he's talented and I'm pretty sure he's just lazy. But Burks fought hard to come back early last year and I haven't heard any knocks against his worth ethic or anything about him other than he might be a little small to play LB'er and that was out of school.

[CheezWizHed]

No one knows how bad it was, but if he was affected by the injury, they should've been listing it on the injury report. Give him another 6 weeks (being generous) to knock off the rust, work back into football shape, and get caught up on the defense and he still had 6 weeks to make an impact (which he didn't).

 

I don't pretend to know what is holding back either Burks or Adams, but guys that can't make an impact in the face of incredible opportunity like they had rarely turn it on suddenly. I think Burks will get another year, but I'm surprised that Adams gets another TC.

[HiAndTight]

No one knows how bad it was, but if he was affected by the injury, they should've been listing it on the injury report. Give him another 6 weeks (being generous) to knock off the rust, work back into football shape, and get caught up on the defense and he still had 6 weeks to make an impact (which he didn't).

 

I don't pretend to know what is holding back either Burks or Adams, but guys that can't make an impact in the face of incredible opportunity like they had rarely turn it on suddenly. I think Burks will get another year, but I'm surprised that Adams gets another TC.

 

 

Well...not exactly how bad it was, but he tore his pec muscle. That takes your technique for shedding tackles and just throws it out the window. The Packers initially thought he'd be lost for the year and I really don't think he ever DID get a the incredible opportunity you're talking about.

Again, Adams is different. He was a boom or bust player coming out, he was a guy who had the talented to go a round or even two earlier and he's obviously just not a very hard working guy. I don't see any correlation between he and Burks.

The Packers rarely went with a 2nd LB'er and when they did it was because they needed to defend the run. So I think it's unfair to judge Burks one way or the other at this point.

 

And I'd agree, Adams should be gone. Based on things Pettine has said about him, I'm not real confident he'll come back from this quarantine in any type of football shape either...but hey, maybe he knows he's running out of chances and we'll get one Hunt like season out of him(just as long as we don't pay up after that one season).

[CheezWizHed]

I wasn't correlating Burks and Adams. They are two players that haven't lived up to their draft capital nor skillsets. That is the only connection. I never said the failure of one was related to the other.

 

Burks had a huge opportunity last year. Goodson played 24% of the snaps. Campbell played another 17% (in just a few games). We looked for a coverage LB all season after Greene was injured. Just because he didn't get on the field doesn't mean he didn't get an opportunity. It means he wasn't getting it done in practice and/or the LB room.

 

Now, in year 3, I really hope something clicks with him (and he can stay healthy), but this will be his last chance unless he shows something more this year.

[HiAndTight]

I wasn't correlating Burks and Adams. They are two players that haven't lived up to their draft capital nor skillsets. That is the only connection. I never said the failure of one was related to the other.

 

Burks had a huge opportunity last year. Goodson played 24% of the snaps. Campbell played another 17% (in just a few games). We looked for a coverage LB all season after Greene was injured. Just because he didn't get on the field doesn't mean he didn't get an opportunity. It means he wasn't getting it done in practice and/or the LB room.

 

Now, in year 3, I really hope something clicks with him (and he can stay healthy), but this will be his last chance unless he shows something more this year.

 

 

He got it done well enough to be one of the two starters. I think you're really underestimating how debilitating a torn pec is for a LB'er.

[CheezWizHed]

He got it done well enough to be one of the two starters. I think you're really underestimating how debilitating a torn pec is for a LB'er.

 

??? Are you thinking of someone else? Burks didn't start a single game last year and only played 57 defensive snaps all year.

 

He was out injured for 4 games last year and listed on the injury report for a 5th. Maybe it took a few more games (I'll give him 6 more) to get back to playing condition and feeling good. That still gives him 6 regular-season games where he made zero impact with two scrubs playing ahead of him. If he was really incapable of playing for 8-10 games, they would've put him on IR.

[HiAndTight]

He got it done well enough to be one of the two starters. I think you're really underestimating how debilitating a torn pec is for a LB'er.

 

??? Are you thinking of someone else? Burks didn't start a single game last year and only played 57 defensive snaps all year.

 

He was out injured for 4 games last year and listed on the injury report for a 5th. Maybe it took a few more games (I'll give him 6 more) to get back to playing condition and feeling good. That still gives him 6 regular-season games where he made zero impact with two scrubs playing ahead of him. If he was really incapable of playing for 8-10 games, they would've put him on IR.

 

 

Yeah, I understand he didn't start. That's because he suffered the Torn Pec in the Pre-season. A Torn pec is almost always a season ending injury. Just not gonna knock a 2nd year guy who's a converted safety because he didn't produce in a season in which he had a pretty serious injury.

 

He'll get his chance this year though...so we'll see what he can do with that 4.59 speed.

[HiAndTight]

Good read about the injury Burks dealt with last year.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/49378/third-times-the-injury-free-charm-for-packers-linebacker-oren-burks

 

 

Hopefully we get a Kevin King like 3rd year resurgence out of him as I don't think there will be a 4th otherwise.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Even if Williams was back, I doubt he would play as well as last year. Both natural regression to his norm and age fight against him. I think either Sullivan or Williams would play about the same in that position. I think it is a very good chance that Sullivan is playing outside CB next year for King.

 

I've given up on Burks and M. Adams. Lots of talent, but they were no where near the field last year when we really needed help at their positions. I'm guessing Burks stays on for another year simply because we don't have much at ILB, but I doubt Adams makes it through TC. I struggled to put him on the depth chart even. I'm hoping they sign a space-eating DL for depth yet this year.

 

I'll admit that health isn't a factor in my rating as I couldn't quite figure out how to put it in. Kirksey might be the better player, but Martinez was rarely injured (one game missed?) in his Packer tenure.

 

I think I left some "upside" off the list too. I wasn't looking at worst case scenarios, but I'm not convinced the Smiths will regress like I estimated (playing averages here). Lowry and Lancaster had poor years last year, but I left them there. The secondary as a unit could really gel this year with all of them in their second year together.

 

I like Sullivan too, but the only way he's playing King's spot is if King is injured. King was very good last year.

[CheezWizHed]

Or if King leaves in free agency. My prediction is for 2021.

[HiAndTight]

Pass Rush Records for the Defense;

 

Tipa Galeai 11-7

Za'Darius 5-4

Gary 9-9

Rasmey 6-6

Keke 8-9

Garvin 6-8

Clark 4-10

Preston 3-9

 

 

Don't know much about Galeai other than he was kinda played out of position in a 4-3 last year at 6'5 230 and seems like he's pretty natural dropping(for an OLB'er) at times. Looks to me like a TJ Watt type of body that can add some weight to it, and it sounds like he's been having a reall good camp. Maybe he makes the opening day roster and can develop and into a nice backup.

 

 

As for the other backup, everything I've heard about Gary is that he looks a LOT better this year. I thought he looked good last year as a 21 year old rookie in the limited playing time, but it sounds like he's really improved his repetoire this year, he's fully healthy and they expect him to be able to play a larger role this year.

 

 

Given Za'Darius Smith's ability to rush the A/B gaps(and Preston Smith for that matter) I could see Gary getting ~40-45 pct of the snaps this year. I'm gonna predict 8 sacks for him. Big step in year two...AND I think the Packers will have 4 guys with 8 or more.

 

 

 

Now...for the love of GOD please go out and add a defensive run stuffer. Johnathan Hankins should be relatively cheap and he's a 6'3 345 BEAST vs the run.

Timmy Jerigan is a guy who was respected in the locker room for the Eagles and can play the 3 or the 5 technique. Doesn't provide the size that guys like Snacks or Hankins would, but you wouldn't have to move Clark anywhere.

Xavier Williams is a guy who has been pretty solid vs the run and who they could sign for very cheap. I believe because he wass banged up last year, the Chiefs went out and signed Mike Pennel(who'd be just about the perfect fit for this team...but don't want to dwell on that).

 

 

Gotta think teams are gonna try us in the run game this year after giving up 175 yards BEFORE contact in the last game we played. And I like Keke...but I don't know if his skill set was ever helping out in the run game as much as it was being a guy who could rush the passer.

 

They HAVE to be looking at DL you'd assume. With Adams banged up(and having shown almost nothing thus far) they've got Lancaster, Lowry, Hester and Keke to help Kenny Clark. Please...go sign Hankins for 1 year and 4 million...if it even costs that much.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm thinking both Lancaster and Lowry bounce back this year... they were horrible against the run last year. But I'm thinking Keke is our best hope for run defense improvement. He isn't a run-stuffer body type, but I think reduced Lancaster snaps and Keke taking on a bigger role will improve the situation greatly.

[homer]

I really dislike Lancaster as a player. I hope he goes away.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I really dislike Lancaster as a player. I hope he goes away.

 

Back in the early 90s, during Holmgren's first few years, they had a DT in the same mold as Lancaster in John Jurkovic. Jurkovic was a pretty terrible nose tackle, and was eventually replaced by waiver wire acquisition Gilbert Brown. But the fans loved Jurkovic because of his boisterous (and at times obnoxious) over-the-top personality. While Lancaster may not have the same type of personality that Jurkovic had, he's a very similar type of player, i.e. one who is eminently replaceable by better talent.

[HiAndTight]

I really dislike Lancaster as a player. I hope he goes away.

 

Back in the early 90s, during Holmgren's first few years, they had a DT in the same mold as Lancaster in John Jurkovic. Jurkovic was a pretty terrible nose tackle, and was eventually replaced by waiver wire acquisition Gilbert Brown. But the fans loved Jurkovic because of his boisterous (and at times obnoxious) over-the-top personality. While Lancaster may not have the same type of personality that Jurkovic had, he's a very similar type of player, i.e. one who is eminently replaceable by better talent.

 

I don't remember him being as bad as Jurko...but maybe that was because he was such a fan favorite. I also don't recall the obnoxious behavior, but that was in my early days as a fan. I think he was probably gone by the time I was 10.

 

As for Lancaster...yeah, he's very replaceable. If he's not replaced, I don't really see how this run D improves much.

[CheezWizHed]

Hey, I liked Jurko! Quintessential max-effort, Rudy-type player. Not a lot of skill and replaceable, but useful for a time.

 

Lancaster was fine two years ago when he was playing obvious runs and limited snaps. He was exposed when his snaps spiked and played much more passing downs, where he was useless. Having Keke play the lion share of those snaps (assuming he is ready) and Lancaster going back to his snaps from 2 years ago should be an improvement.