2020 Miscellaneous NFL News

[PeaveyFury]

Adams himself tweeted something about 'Getting $$' a week or so ago, and that has been interpreted like Z's message that something is in the works. The team has, as is their way, kept negotiations quiet and out of the press beyond that....

[HiAndTight]

That’s basically the same deal he was offered last year (though I think the sticking point was that Dak wanted a 5-year deal at $40mm/year).

 

So Dak bets on himself, loses, and still gets $40mm/year?

 

Good for him and good for Packer fans.

 

 

The sticking point was Dallas wanted it to be a 5-year deal to mitigate the cap hit and Dak wanted 4.

 

They basically split the difference by making this a 6 year deal with the 2 voidable years.

[HiAndTight]

 

So much for it being $200M this year after adding the extra regular season game and new TV contract...some will still think the 2022 cap number will magically go up to $240M to alleviate all salary cap concerns across the league, but honestly future cap increases will lag slightly behind the anticipated big revenue jumps when fans return to stadiums because the 2020 season was played with basically no gameday revenue and 2021 will likely have crowd limitations, too. Good on the NFL to add that 17th game/TV $ to help inflate this year's cap above where it could have been once they knew revenues were going to plummet in 2020 to avoid widespread cuts - hopefully the 2022 cap bump will push a bit over $200M to give a team like the Packers some room to get Alexander locked up longterm and also not force their hand on trading Rodgers or Clark if they don't want to.

 

This cap number also is terrible news for this offseason's free agent class - there still are going to be alot more good veteran players cut that will flood the market even with it being set at $182.5M.

 

 

I don't think there will be any magic involved at all. I thought there were two possible scenarios, the cap stays lower this year and then shoots back up next year or they spread it out more over the next couple of years.

 

They're not spreading it out over the next couple years. The majority of the lost revenue is coming this year.

 

The new TV money and the fact that the pct of the money going to the players is increasing in the new CBA is why the Cap is going to shoot up next year, not because of any magical thinking.

 

Though I suppose if by Sept stadiums are still partially empty due to Covid despite 3 vaccines, we'll have far bigger problems to contend with.

[wildcat83]

There's starting to be veterans cut like crazy to get teams under the cap. Would be a great offseason to have some cap room, there will be bargains to be had getting all of these guys back on to teams.

[nate82]

Not sure how accurate this is:

 

 

But some teams have a little carry over they could use?

[Fear The Chorizo]

They're not spreading it out over the next couple years. The majority of the lost revenue is coming this year.

 

Yes they are - they've routinely been stating as much ever since they agreed to not drop the 2021 cap below $175M last summer. Based on revenue losses from 2020, the 2021 cap would have dropped to $160M had they not stated they plan on spreading out the pandemic revenue losses over multiple future seasons. Even the NFL owners realized dropping this year's cap down to $160M would have been a complete disaster and not practical, especially knowing there are built in revenue increases coming with more TV money and the larger share going to players with how the CBA is structured. The extra game and additional TV money will definitely lead to increasing caps - it's just that those increases are going to be hampered because of this year's cap being artificially bolstered by ~$22 million dollars per team.

 

So instead of this year's cap being ~$210M and the 2022 cap likely jumping upward to $230-$240M, this year's cap is $182.5M and with a great revenue year and assuming capacity gameday crowd ticket revenue the 2022 cap probably jumps towards $210-215M - a big annual jump but nowhere near what a presumed "normal" 2021 season revenue stream would suggest the cap should be.

[pacopete4]

I think it is lousy that you create long-term deals with players and you don't know what the salary cap will be in those seasons.

[stoutdude04]

Vegas just dropped their odds for Wilson to the Bears off their boards.

[nate82]

Rumors again about the Bears trading for Wilson and apparently they are about to make an offer to the Seahawks that will make it difficult for them to reject it.

 

It also looks like Wilson is not happy with the coaching and Carrol is not happy with Wilson. Carrol would prefer to have Darnold going forward instead of Wilson?

 

Not sure I believe that last rumor.

[homer]

Carroll doesn't know how good he's had it the last 10 years.

[HiAndTight]

They're not spreading it out over the next couple years. The majority of the lost revenue is coming this year.

 

Yes they are - they've routinely been stating as much ever since they agreed to not drop the 2021 cap below $175M last summer. Based on revenue losses from 2020, the 2021 cap would have dropped to $160M had they not stated they plan on spreading out the pandemic revenue losses over multiple future seasons. Even the NFL owners realized dropping this year's cap down to $160M would have been a complete disaster and not practical, especially knowing there are built in revenue increases coming with more TV money and the larger share going to players with how the CBA is structured. The extra game and additional TV money will definitely lead to increasing caps - it's just that those increases are going to be hampered because of this year's cap being artificially bolstered by ~$22 million dollars per team.

 

So instead of this year's cap being ~$210M and the 2022 cap likely jumping upward to $230-$240M, this year's cap is $182.5M and with a great revenue year and assuming capacity gameday crowd ticket revenue the 2022 cap probably jumps towards $210-215M - a big annual jump but nowhere near what a presumed "normal" 2021 season revenue stream would suggest the cap should be.

 

 

I thought it was obvious, but I was referring to the numerous articles that speculated the cap would be in the 190-200 range with the cap loosely projected to go up to 220-230 next year. That's why I said the MAJORITY of the loss will come from this year. Not the entirety, the majority of it.

 

I was talking about from Cap Floor.

 

The additional 1.5 pct of total revenue that the players get with the 17th game and the new TV deal will more than account for that and the 10 billion in additional revenue that will be spread out among the teams next year.

 

 

The Cap is ALMOST certainly going to see a huge spike next season....again, there is some new strain of Covid or some other freak scenario takes fans out of the stands.

 

Well check back in a year. I'll put money down the Cap is at LEAST 220 in 2022.[Removed by mods- unnecessarily confrontational- play nice please.]

[PinaMadness]

Where are all these draft picks the Bears supposedly have to trade for Russ?

[HiAndTight]

Where are all these draft picks the Bears supposedly have to trade for Russ?

 

 

They have pretty much all of their own future picks. The picks from the Mack trade or other trades are gone.

 

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Bears.htm

 

 

Maybe they're trying to flip an actual asset like Jackson for another 1st or maybe someone like Fuller(who I don't think they'd get much for).

 

But this situation devolved so quickly. I can't believe Seattle isn't doing everything it can to get Russ back. Especially when they gave up their 1st next year. They're going to trade Wilson, end up a 3-4 win team, get a top 5 pick and watch another team use it like Houston is this year.

 

I understand Watson's frustrations...I do not understand Wilson and his current stance.

[nate82]

Where are all these draft picks the Bears supposedly have to trade for Russ?

 

The Bears have all of their draft picks now. I think they are only missing a few in the later rounds but all of the picks that they have traded for Mack have passed. The Bears have all of their picks and can trade all of their future picks for Russell if they want to now.

 

One rumor I read was the deal is 2021 1st round, 2022 1st round, 2023 1st round, 2022 2nd round, 2023 4th round, QB Foles and CB Fuller.

 

I think for the Bears to get Wilson and be under the cap they will have to restructure Mack, Quinn, Jackson and Goldman/Whitehair and that would give the Bears just enough to sign their draft picks for 2021. But realistically it would have to be Mack, Quinn, Jackson, Goldman and Whitehair that would give them about $7m in cap space which should be enough to sign 1 free agent and all of their draft picks.

 

The Seahawks would then flip the 2nd round and the 4th round pick to the Jets for Darnold. Basically replacing Wilson for 3 1st round picks and Darnold.

[Fear The Chorizo]

They're not spreading it out over the next couple years. The majority of the lost revenue is coming this year.

 

Yes they are - they've routinely been stating as much ever since they agreed to not drop the 2021 cap below $175M last summer. Based on revenue losses from 2020, the 2021 cap would have dropped to $160M had they not stated they plan on spreading out the pandemic revenue losses over multiple future seasons. Even the NFL owners realized dropping this year's cap down to $160M would have been a complete disaster and not practical, especially knowing there are built in revenue increases coming with more TV money and the larger share going to players with how the CBA is structured. The extra game and additional TV money will definitely lead to increasing caps - it's just that those increases are going to be hampered because of this year's cap being artificially bolstered by ~$22 million dollars per team.

 

So instead of this year's cap being ~$210M and the 2022 cap likely jumping upward to $230-$240M, this year's cap is $182.5M and with a great revenue year and assuming capacity gameday crowd ticket revenue the 2022 cap probably jumps towards $210-215M - a big annual jump but nowhere near what a presumed "normal" 2021 season revenue stream would suggest the cap should be.

 

 

I thought it was obvious, but I was referring to the numerous articles that speculated the cap would be in the 190-200 range with the cap loosely projected to go up to 220-230 next year. That's why I said the MAJORITY of the loss will come from this year. Not the entirety, the majority of it.

 

I was talking about from Cap Floor.

 

The additional 1.5 pct of total revenue that the players get with the 17th game and the new TV deal will more than account for that and the 10 billion in additional revenue that will be spread out among the teams next year.

 

 

The Cap is ALMOST certainly going to see a huge spike next season....again, there is some new strain of Covid or some other freak scenario takes fans out of the stands.

 

Well check back in a year. I'll put money down the Cap is at LEAST 220 in 2022.[Removed by mods- unnecessarily confrontational- play nice please.]

 

 

Ok, but $220m is still $20m less than $240m...you agree the pandemic revenue losses are being spread out over multiple years after all.

 

2021 will be the first season the salary cap actually was reduced from the prior year, aside from 2011 after the uncapped season and contentious labor negotiation. Since the 2012 season, the average annual cap increase has been roughly 8%, however cap increases from 2018-2020 were closer to 6% year over year. With no pandemic losses at all and an assumed 8% annual cap increase, that would project the 2022 cap to have been ~$225M. The added revenue of a 17th game and new TV money could have painted a rosy scenario of a $240-$250M cap in 2022 had there not been a pandemic that knocked things back roughly 3 years in progression ($182.5M is right between where the 2018 and 2019 base caps were set). This is far from a rosy scenario, however - case in point the Chiefs wouldn't typically cut their starting tackles whose absence in the Super Bowl likely cost them any chance of a repeat just one season after backing up the Brinks' truck for Mahomes, then turn around and still have to restructure his contract only one season into it to try and find enough room to sign draft picks and pick up bargain bin veteran FAs to fill in their roster.

 

All these monster QB and player contracts that have been thrown out there over the past few seasons were set up in a way to leave flexibility for organizations to restructure and strategically play the cap game out until the anticipated revenue bumps from new TV deals arrive in 2022 - provided there isn't a year like this one where the cap got significantly reduced and has prompted many cuts that otherwise never would have occurred AND those same teams still need to do a bunch of restructuring that limits their options in future league years. In a way it's like a ponzi scheme that comes unraveled as soon as there's a hiccup in steadily increasing deposits from new clients - it's not necessarily that they don't have the money on hand to pay player payrolls, it's the arbitrary cap hit accounting that nips organizations in the rear who were banking on both steady cap increases every year and a balloon jump in 2022 after the new TV money.

[nate82]

If the cap doesn't increase significantly next year the players union will strike.

[homer]

Where are all these draft picks the Bears supposedly have to trade for Russ?

 

 

They have pretty much all of their own future picks. The picks from the Mack trade or other trades are gone.

 

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Bears.htm

 

 

Maybe they're trying to flip an actual asset like Jackson for another 1st or maybe someone like Fuller(who I don't think they'd get much for).

 

But this situation devolved so quickly. I can't believe Seattle isn't doing everything it can to get Russ back. Especially when they gave up their 1st next year. They're going to trade Wilson, end up a 3-4 win team, get a top 5 pick and watch another team use it like Houston is this year.

 

I understand Watson's frustrations...I do not understand Wilson and his current stance.

 

Re: Wilson - they have a terrible offensive line and their coach is stuck in "three yards and a cloud of recycled tire rubber" mindset. They are always in the bottom quartile in 4th down attempts.

[OldHeidelberg]

I got a bill for $130 for my gold package tickets today, I paid last year and missed the chance to opt out and get my money back so my payment carried over. At first I was really angry about such a large increase and though they were kicking covid losses onto me but it turns out there was no increase and I am paying for the possibility that the 17th game may be NFC this year. Really? The NFL can't get it together so the teams need to bill us for a potential game? I guess we have been seeing it with no cap number while teams need to decide on franchising players but it's a joke they can't get this stuff resolved before billing. I hate Goodell.

[PinaMadness]

Chargers released Casey Heyward.

[pacopete4]

Chargers released Casey Heyward.

 

Maybe. Depends on asking price.

[PeaveyFury]

Casey had a nice career in SD after leaving the Packers, but had a bad 2020. He’d be an interesting bounce-back candidate, though he’s not young anymore.

[GAME05]

Have heard that he's really lost a few steps.

[HiAndTight]

 

 

Ok, but $220m is still $20m less than $240m...you agree the pandemic revenue losses are being spread out over multiple years after all.

 

2021 will be the first season the salary cap actually was reduced from the prior year, aside from 2011 after the uncapped season and contentious labor negotiation. Since the 2012 season, the average annual cap increase has been roughly 8%, however cap increases from 2018-2020 were closer to 6% year over year. With no pandemic losses at all and an assumed 8% annual cap increase, that would project the 2022 cap to have been ~$225M. The added revenue of a 17th game and new TV money could have painted a rosy scenario of a $240-$250M cap in 2022 had there not been a pandemic that knocked things back roughly 3 years in progression ($182.5M is right between where the 2018 and 2019 base caps were set). This is far from a rosy scenario, however - case in point the Chiefs wouldn't typically cut their starting tackles whose absence in the Super Bowl likely cost them any chance of a repeat just one season after backing up the Brinks' truck for Mahomes, then turn around and still have to restructure his contract only one season into it to try and find enough room to sign draft picks and pick up bargain bin veteran FAs to fill in their roster.

 

All these monster QB and player contracts that have been thrown out there over the past few seasons were set up in a way to leave flexibility for organizations to restructure and strategically play the cap game out until the anticipated revenue bumps from new TV deals arrive in 2022 - provided there isn't a year like this one where the cap got significantly reduced and has prompted many cuts that otherwise never would have occurred AND those same teams still need to do a bunch of restructuring that limits their options in future league years. In a way it's like a ponzi scheme that comes unraveled as soon as there's a hiccup in steadily increasing deposits from new clients - it's not necessarily that they don't have the money on hand to pay player payrolls, it's the arbitrary cap hit accounting that nips organizations in the rear who were banking on both steady cap increases every year and a balloon jump in 2022 after the new TV money.

 

 

Yes, I do. I don't know what the "after all" comment comes from, but, alright. That was already baked in to the floor. But there was quite a bit of speculation they'd spread the hit out more over the next 3 years so the cap would be around 196. They didn't do that.

 

I mean...it's a given that the pandemic impacted not only this seasons cap, but will impact the cap the next 2-3 years. Increased revenue and a larger share for the players will help the cap rebound more than it would have otherwise. The only question was if they were going to defer more money so the cap wouldn't drop and would go up less in future years. They didn't.

 

And yes, it's causing a lot of teams to make roster moves they otherwise wouldn't.

 

I'm not disagreeing with anything you're saying here.

[HiAndTight]

Have heard that he's really lost a few steps.

 

 

I doubt he could be a boundary CB again, but he's a smart, crafty vet who may be able to play in the slot. I did kinda like Sullivan there however. I think he looked worse, particularly in the Tampa game because they lined up in a LOT of man coverage and they have very good and very fast WR'ers.

 

He is the type of player I would expect the Packers to sign. Players who have been cut and won't eat into their comp picks next season.

[PinaMadness]

Once again, I'm not advocating for signing any of these guys I'm mentioning. Just putting some interesting names out there.