2020 Miscellaneous NFL News

[HiAndTight]

Definitely should've went for that 4th and end the game with a guy like Wilson on the other side.

 

If you want to analyze mistakes the one was MN going for 2 with about 4 mins left in the 3rd q when they scored down 8. I thought at the time it was too early for it as there is going to be more scores in the 4th. If they'd taken the 1 pt they could've kicked the FG at the end to go up 9.

 

 

The very fact that the other side had Wilson is an argument for making it an 8 point game. Now you're kicking off to Seattle with 2 minutes, 1 TO and you can play aggressive on defense in a wet, rainy game.

 

And I don't know how you score a TD down 8 with 4 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter and NOT try to tie it up.

I'd argue trying a QB draw with Cousins was a terrible decision, but the choice to go for it seemed like a no-brainer.

 

I do at least understand the logic in going for it on 4th and 1, but if they'd have kicked it down 2...that would have been baffling to me.

[HiAndTight]

Even Saints fans are starting to figure out that Taysom Hill is not an NFL quarterback.

 

BTW Bulaga is missing his second straight game due to injury.

 

 

Yeah, I saw them all worked up. Fumbling in back to back weeks will do that. I'm gonna trust Payton on this one. I think the issue is that if you're going to start Hill, you're going to want to change up the offense quite a bit. A lot more read option, bootlegs, simple stuff.

 

He's got a stronger arm and he's a great athlete. But if you're just bringing him in every once in a while to run a play....you're really not giving him much of a chance to excel.

 

It was 2 years ago that he blocked a punt in a playoff game, got WIDE OPEN and Brees just totally missed him on what should have been a 50+ yard TD pass. Then on the next play HE threw a long TD that was called back.

 

 

But I really have no clue if he can be an NFL starter of if he's just a luxury who can do a little bit of everything.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Even Saints fans are starting to figure out that Taysom Hill is not an NFL quarterback.

 

BTW Bulaga is missing his second straight game due to injury.

 

 

Yeah, I saw them all worked up. Fumbling in back to back weeks will do that. I'm gonna trust Payton on this one. I think the issue is that if you're going to start Hill, you're going to want to change up the offense quite a bit. A lot more read option, bootlegs, simple stuff.

 

He's got a stronger arm and he's a great athlete. But if you're just bringing him in every once in a while to run a play....you're really not giving him much of a chance to excel.

 

It was 2 years ago that he blocked a punt in a playoff game, got WIDE OPEN and Brees just totally missed him on what should have been a 50+ yard TD pass. Then on the next play HE threw a long TD that was called back.

 

 

But I really have no clue if he can be an NFL starter of if he's just a luxury who can do a little bit of everything.

 

I think if the Saints truly felt that Hill could be a starter, they wouldn't have signed Teddy Bridgewater last year, or Jameis Winston this year. A good coach may be able to design an offense around him, and he probably has a better, more accurate arm than Tim Tebow had, but I doubt he is ever anything more than a gadget guy. Important to note that he is 30 years old, too, and that athleticism that makes him dangerous also has a short shelf life.

[tmwiese55]

Definitely should've went for that 4th and end the game with a guy like Wilson on the other side.

 

If you want to analyze mistakes the one was MN going for 2 with about 4 mins left in the 3rd q when they scored down 8. I thought at the time it was too early for it as there is going to be more scores in the 4th. If they'd taken the 1 pt they could've kicked the FG at the end to go up 9.

 

 

The very fact that the other side had Wilson is an argument for making it an 8 point game. Now you're kicking off to Seattle with 2 minutes, 1 TO and you can play aggressive on defense in a wet, rainy game.

 

And I don't know how you score a TD down 8 with 4 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter and NOT try to tie it up.

I'd argue trying a QB draw with Cousins was a terrible decision, but the choice to go for it seemed like a no-brainer.

 

I do at least understand the logic in going for it on 4th and 1, but if they'd have kicked it down 2...that would have been baffling to me.

 

I'd beg to differ. Having the elite QB against me would give me the goal of not having that guy have a chance at all. Giving him the ball down 8 doesn't do much to change that. As the math pointed out they showed, kicking the FG didn't change their odds at all.

 

I wouldn't say the going for 2 that early was braindead or awful, nothing drastic like that. But there's an easy logic that it's too that it's too early, wait and see what happens later. I'd probably lean towards going for the 2 as I'm almost always on that side, but I was saying if you're going to nitpick these things that one was probably moreso since it was so early in the game you could've held off and just took your points.

[CheezWizHed]

I have to challenge the notion that kicking a field goal and going up 8 doesn't change their odds of winning at all. I saw the numbers posted, but it doesn't make sense.

 

Being up 5 means the opposing team needs to score a touchdown to win. Being up 8 means the opposing team has to score a touchdown AND 2pt conversion just to TIE.

 

How can the odds be the same? Someone is struggling with their math on that one.

[adambr2]

I have to challenge the notion that kicking a field goal and going up 8 doesn't change their odds of winning at all. I saw the numbers posted, but it doesn't make sense.

 

Being up 5 means the opposing team needs to score a touchdown to win. Being up 8 means the opposing team has to score a touchdown AND 2pt conversion just to TIE.

 

How can the odds be the same? Someone is struggling with their math on that one.

 

They're not comparing the odds of being up 5 or 8. They're comparing the odds of the decision to go for it there or the decision to kick it there. The odds are comparing the decisions prior to the 4th down with no knowledge of the result of the individual play.

[tmwiese55]

I'd generally be curious on the math on some of those formulas too. Top of my head guess here we go. First, their odds to win were already so high that it was tough to improve them. The chance for the TD happening also goes up by kicking the FG because Seattle gets 30ish yds more of field position and the chance to run the kick back. Combine that with the slim chance of missing the FG, blocked FG, etc and I see how it could balance out.

 

ETA: what they showed was they were already at 94 going into the play. Making FG keeps them at 94. missing drops to like 80. Getting the 1st goes to 99.9.

 

Also, if you didn't notice the hole to the right was a wide open TD but the RB missed it.

[CheezWizHed]

 

Ok, they started with the assumption of making the field goal as the base win probability. I figured they would start with win probability of the ball unsnapped, thus adding 3 points should increase the probability. Just kind of odd how they showed it.

[HiAndTight]

Even Saints fans are starting to figure out that Taysom Hill is not an NFL quarterback.

 

BTW Bulaga is missing his second straight game due to injury.

 

 

Yeah, I saw them all worked up. Fumbling in back to back weeks will do that. I'm gonna trust Payton on this one. I think the issue is that if you're going to start Hill, you're going to want to change up the offense quite a bit. A lot more read option, bootlegs, simple stuff.

 

He's got a stronger arm and he's a great athlete. But if you're just bringing him in every once in a while to run a play....you're really not giving him much of a chance to excel.

 

It was 2 years ago that he blocked a punt in a playoff game, got WIDE OPEN and Brees just totally missed him on what should have been a 50+ yard TD pass. Then on the next play HE threw a long TD that was called back.

 

 

But I really have no clue if he can be an NFL starter of if he's just a luxury who can do a little bit of everything.

 

I think if the Saints truly felt that Hill could be a starter, they wouldn't have signed Teddy Bridgewater last year, or Jameis Winston this year. A good coach may be able to design an offense around him, and he probably has a better, more accurate arm than Tim Tebow had, but I doubt he is ever anything more than a gadget guy. Important to note that he is 30 years old, too, and that athleticism that makes him dangerous also has a short shelf life.

 

 

Yeah, there's that...but then he's also getting 16 million guaranteed next year while they gave Winston 1 year 1.1 million.

It's possible they signed Winston because it was just a really good value and Bridgewater because they wanted a reliable backup so they could use Hill on Special Teams and every other roll they use him in.

 

I think he's got a much better arm than Tebow, but he's 30 years old.

 

 

Honestly...just based on their salary cap, I can't see anyone but Hill starting for them next year. Unless Winston wants to return for next to nothing for a 2nd year.

[HiAndTight]

Definitely should've went for that 4th and end the game with a guy like Wilson on the other side.

 

If you want to analyze mistakes the one was MN going for 2 with about 4 mins left in the 3rd q when they scored down 8. I thought at the time it was too early for it as there is going to be more scores in the 4th. If they'd taken the 1 pt they could've kicked the FG at the end to go up 9.

 

 

The very fact that the other side had Wilson is an argument for making it an 8 point game. Now you're kicking off to Seattle with 2 minutes, 1 TO and you can play aggressive on defense in a wet, rainy game.

 

And I don't know how you score a TD down 8 with 4 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter and NOT try to tie it up.

I'd argue trying a QB draw with Cousins was a terrible decision, but the choice to go for it seemed like a no-brainer.

 

I do at least understand the logic in going for it on 4th and 1, but if they'd have kicked it down 2...that would have been baffling to me.

 

I'd beg to differ. Having the elite QB against me would give me the goal of not having that guy have a chance at all. Giving him the ball down 8 doesn't do much to change that. As the math pointed out they showed, kicking the FG didn't change their odds at all.

 

I wouldn't say the going for 2 that early was braindead or awful, nothing drastic like that. But there's an easy logic that it's too that it's too early, wait and see what happens later. I'd probably lean towards going for the 2 as I'm almost always on that side, but I was saying if you're going to nitpick these things that one was probably moreso since it was so early in the game you could've held off and just took your points.

 

 

I get that. My first thought when I saw it was if they get it, it's over. Ultimately though if it were up to me what happened would be exactly what I'd have feared. It'd have been different if it would have been at the 40. I'd be all for going for it there. But it was almost a gimme FG.

 

But it doesn't really matter now.

[nodakfan17]

I learned elsewhere online that Ryan Tannehill is already 32. I would have guessed 28 or 29, but he was drafted in 2012. And then when I went down the Wikipedia rabbit hole, I was reminded that Mike Sherman coached Tannehill at Texas A&M and played him at WR until his senior year. There’s another guy who probably would probably have benefited from sitting his rookie year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jets released Le'Veon Bell. What a dumpster fire of an organization that is.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Adam Gase was a horrible hire and should be right behind Bell.

[Underachiever]

I'd generally be curious on the math on some of those formulas too. Top of my head guess here we go. First, their odds to win were already so high that it was tough to improve them. The chance for the TD happening also goes up by kicking the FG because Seattle gets 30ish yds more of field position and the chance to run the kick back. Combine that with the slim chance of missing the FG, blocked FG, etc and I see how it could balance out.

 

ETA: what they showed was they were already at 94 going into the play. Making FG keeps them at 94. missing drops to like 80. Getting the 1st goes to 99.9.

 

Also, if you didn't notice the hole to the right was a wide open TD but the RB missed it.

I don't think it's a formula. I think that the three outcomes aren't compared to each other, but to historical outcomes. They posted three outcomes that showed:

1. Historically, a team that has the ball, up by 5, with a 4th and 1 with two minutes left, wins the game 94% of the time.

2. Then, they are saying, historically, a team up by 8, playing defense, with two minutes left, wins the game 94% of the time as well.

3. Third, a team up by 5, playing defense, with two minutes left, wins the game 79% of the time.

 

Not sure if field position plays into it.

 

It's a statement about each situation against historical averages. I think it's a little dishonest of them to say that the percentage drops by 15% if they do one action over the other. It took the "Stopped" outcome, and assumed that Seattle had the ball with two minutes left and a 5pt deficit, then says, in that situation, the Vikings had a 79% chance of winning the game. Using historical outcomes to predict future. If I flip a coin 8 times, and it comes up heads every time, the chance of the next flip is still 50/50, even if I think tails are "due." The first 8 flips have nothing to do with the ninth.

 

Let's face it, probability aside, the Vikings chances of winning dropped from 79% to 0.0% when they missed on the 4th and 1. Probability doesn't take into account that it's still the Vikings.

[PeaveyFury]

Jets released Le'Veon Bell. What a dumpster fire of an organization that is.

 

I really think this is yet another example of why large second-contract deals to RBs don't work out well in today's league, and why I don't think the Packers will resign Jones. Bell is obviously a weird case based on his history, but there's a reason why guys like Gordon and Gurley weren't resigned by the teams that drafted them high in the draft.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jets released Le'Veon Bell. What a dumpster fire of an organization that is.

 

I really think this is yet another example of why large second-contract deals to RBs don't work out well in today's league, and why I don't think the Packers will resign Jones. Bell is obviously a weird case based on his history, but there's a reason why guys like Gordon and Gurley weren't resigned by the teams that drafted them high in the draft.

 

I think the majority of people who aren't NFL running backs or media talking heads understand this.

[tmwiese55]

Actually Gurley is another example too. He got resigned by the Rams to a 4/60 deal. And subsequent running backs like Gordon used that as an example as how they should be paid too. When the reality was that contract almost immediately turned out bad for the Rams and proved as an example as to why those RBs shouldn't get those contracts.

 

To the Vikings to 0. Well they did have to convert at least two 4th downs on that drive, one I think 4th and 10 and the other that was the TD and a very difficult play. But yea, I know which way I'd bet vs Wilson. Which is why I think go for it was right, it's over then. Other option is he gets the ball on the 30, making the TD almost the exact same likelihood in people like us who have that vibe that Wilson is always coming through (technically higher since he's 25 yds closer). So then it comes to the 2pt or not. I'd rather just end it right there. 4th and 1s are converted like 2/3 times and they were running just fine.

[CheezWizHed]

My brain understands we shouldn't but my heart says otherwise...

[tmwiese55]

maybe there's a middle ground with him too. It doesn't have to be rookie level money vs 15/mil per year. And as all teams know this I can't believe anyone is going to give a ridiculous 4/60 type deal. So if others aren't going above 8-10/yr and packers at least get close to it maybe he just says in GB. Logic being he's in a winning team and he's in a situation to keep doing well as opposed to going to some team, doing poorly and getting released (thus not getting the full contract). Heck, he might come out better in GB because barring injury he'll probably do better and play out the contract. But I also get this is his one payday and he has to get all he can, can't blame the guy.

[nate82]

Pretty sure if the NFL didn't announce this no one would have even noticed they didn't play the 2021 Pro Bowl.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-announces-cancellation-of-2021-pro-bowl-game-las-vegas-will-host-2022-game/

[PinaMadness]

Adam Gase was a horrible hire and should be right behind Bell.

Gase should've been ahead of him.

 

$35 million guaranteed for 17 games. Such a Jets thing to do.

[PinaMadness]

Melvin Gordon charged with DUI and speeding.

[HiAndTight]

My brain understands we shouldn't but my heart says otherwise...

 

How does your heart feel about just tagging him for 10 million next year?

 

Tag him, let Jamal walk and you've got thunder and lightening?

 

I don't really understand how they can even be thinking about signing both Jones AND Bahk to deals anywhere near what both of them have "earned."

 

Then you're almost certainly letting King and Linsley walk...right?

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, Bahk has to be the priority. Playing as well as Jones at a far more critical position that is harder to find replacements.

 

I've already given up on King and Linsley based on priorities. A tag on Jones might work. But I wouldn't feel too bad about a small deal for Williams and breaking in Dillon.

[HiAndTight]

Yeah, Bahk has to be the priority. Playing as well as Jones at a far more critical position that is harder to find replacements.

 

I've already given up on King and Linsley based on priorities. A tag on Jones might work. But I wouldn't feel too bad about a small deal for Williams and breaking in Dillon.

 

 

Yeah, Bahk's a no-brainer.

 

I guess it's more about Jones vs Linsley AND King.

 

How good do we think King is? I still really don't know. He's physical and a willing tackler..but he also gets banged up. He's good at playing the ball, but he also gets beat when he's too aggressive.

 

For a team that's likely going to be paying one CB upward of 20 million per year in the not too distant future(assuming the current trajectory)...maybe if he takes 4/36 and 12-ish guaranteed?

And Corey Linsley...I think he's definitely gone, but man, he's been SOOO good and so incredibly steady. He's probably the most underrated player on the Packers. But with Patrick and Jenkins both capable of playing Center...

I think if anything, Hanson, Stepaniak and of course Runyan, the writing is on the wall there.

 

 

I hope the Packers show a Saints like commitment to finish up the Rodges era with the most talent they can possibly put together and keep everyone they need. Nobody wants to see that season when you're force to nuke your team to get out of cap hell...but I also dont' want to see 35 years of HOF QB play and just one Ring for each.