2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Tbadder]

Wow, none of those picks were under slot. Almost the same profile as other picks. Bring on the pitchers tomorrow!

[DHonks]

I like the profiles on all these guys. It was pretty obvious that MLB teams would shy away from HS players after the first round, since the players have tremendous leverage and limited immediate financial gains.

 

I also like staying away from pitching here. We'll try to sign some, but lets remember that what built our 2008-2011 success was marquee hitters. We've also had about 6 or 7 consecutive pitcher heavy drafts in early rounds, with little offensive talent in the minors to show. We've got a lot of good arms down there that need chances in a rotation

[CheeseheadInQC]

It's interesting the Brewers have been very willing to take guys who either haven't caught much or haven't caught in a while. The Dillard experiment never really got off the ground, although who knows what they had planned this year, but Fry was still catching by year's end.

 

I'm generally lukewarm on taking college bats, especially non-catchers, in the early-middle portions of the draft (4-10, or rather 4-5 this year). That said, at least Wiemer kind of gives you something to dream on.

 

The losers from this draft have to be the college bats taken after Round 10 last year (Devanney, Wilson, McGee, Nnebe) who saw their path to a full-season roster spot next year get more complicated.

[SRB]

Love every single one of these picks so far.

 

There's a strong case that we snagged two top-25 prospects in terms of overall talent, and the other three picks are all ambitious fliers on guys who are arguably being underrated and have huge upside.

 

I'm not sure why anyone is knocking college bats in the first few rounds. It's probably been the single most productive draft category for the Brewers over the last couple decades, with picks among the first few rounds like Keston Hiura, Mitch Haniger, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr., and relatively few total misses.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Love every single one of these picks so far.

 

There's a strong case that we snagged two top-25 prospects in terms of overall talent, and the other three picks are all ambitious fliers on guys who are arguably being underrated and have huge upside.

 

I'm not sure why anyone is knocking college bats in the first few rounds. It's probably been the single most productive draft category for the Brewers over the last couple decades, with picks among the first few rounds like Keston Hiura, Mitch Haniger, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr., and relatively few total misses.

 

To be fair, the track record after round 3 isn't quite the same. Over the last 20 years, outside of Khris Davis, you could make a case the college bat drafted after round 3 that provided the most value to the Brewers is Jason Rogers. They've gone that route a bit more heavily the last couple of years, so hopefully between Kahle, Dillard, Holt and Hamilton and now Wiemer and Cantrelle, along with a couple of other at least productive minor leaguers in the system like Hummel and Fry, that trend will be broken soon.

[MillerParkSouth]

I really hate that the draft is over now. Well done owners/Manfred, wouldn't want any more cheap talent in the pipeline to dream on

[brewcrewdue80]

I think the draft and strategy was done extremely well. 1st 2 picks are just about given to reach and contribute at the ML. The next 3 are upside picks where talent is present, just the ability to harness is lacking. They covered CF, SS, C/3b, a corner OF, and 2b/SS. So basically if these guys take off in a 3-4year timeline, you could fit them on the team at the same time.

 

I also wonder on the college picks due to the minor league contractions forthcoming. I dunno where Milw stands on teams maybe to lose but you may not want a hefty number of Rookie level teenagers in your system right now and placing this group of draftees in A ball right away.

[shanedog19]

Makes sense to load up on college bats in a year where you likely lose a year of development. This seems like a pretty good haul for a minor league system desperate for an influx of talent.

[patrickgpe]

I agree, while I didn't know anything about the 4 guys they took yesterday, after reading up on them, there are tons in potential in all of them. Yes I would have liked some pitching. yes there isn't much power in the guys that they took right now. This is what you do when you have the worst system in baseball and no ability to add via trading major league talent for prospects. These guys could advance quickly in the system and get you some good prospects in the upper levels of their system which is pretty devoid of that right now.

[DR28]

I really like the Mitchell and Zamora picks... Replacement for Cain in a couple years and then Zamora stays at SS, moving Urias/Turang to 2B and Keston to 3B.

 

I would have really liked to draft college pitchers with the remaining picks.

 

But a potential team of:

 

C - Feliciano

2B - Urias or Turang

SS - Zamora

3B - Hiura

LF - Yelich

CF - Mitchell

RF - Lutz

 

Damn, that is beautiful to think about!

[burnzy24]

I really like the Mitchell and Zamora picks... Replacement for Cain in a couple years and then Zamora stays at SS, moving Urias/Turang to 2B and Keston to 3B.

 

Keston has nowhere near the arm strength to play 3b. It's 2nd, 1st or DH for him.

[Yount19]

Will there be any leaks/leads regarding if a player is looking to sign for 20k before Sunday or is MLB putting a big watch down on the players and teams?

 

I doubt guys like Mace and Leftwich from Florida are signing but could the crew get some like Mason Erla from Michigan ST? or Bo Hofstra from Purdue?

[DR28]

Will there be any leaks/leads regarding if a player is looking to sign for 20k before Sunday or is MLB putting a big watch down on the players and teams?

 

I doubt guys like Mace and Leftwich from Florida are signing but could the crew get some like Mason Erla from Michigan ST? or Bo Hofstra from Purdue?

 

McDaniel said Mace is returning for his senior season.

 

Too bad, I really wanted to draft him... I wanted him or Criswell.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Really really enjoyed this draft. Been a while since any of us got any taste of sports again. Actually since the NFL draft. I love that we went for upside for the most part considering the state of our farm system. I think my favorite pick was Zavier Warren in the third. A switch, plus hitting catcher with a good arm that’s already called games before? Giddy up. Also really liked dreaming on Mitchell’s tools. Overall the farm system has a long way to go still but hopefully this is a step in the right direction.

[TigerUppercut]

Love every single one of these picks so far.

 

There's a strong case that we snagged two top-25 prospects in terms of overall talent, and the other three picks are all ambitious fliers on guys who are arguably being underrated and have huge upside.

 

I'm not sure why anyone is knocking college bats in the first few rounds. It's probably been the single most productive draft category for the Brewers over the last couple decades, with picks among the first few rounds like Keston Hiura, Mitch Haniger, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr., and relatively few total misses.

 

To be fair, the track record after round 3 isn't quite the same. Over the last 20 years, outside of Khris Davis, you could make a case the college bat drafted after round 3 that provided the most value to the Brewers is Jason Rogers. They've gone that route a bit more heavily the last couple of years, so hopefully between Kahle, Dillard, Holt and Hamilton and now Wiemer and Cantrelle, along with a couple of other at least productive minor leaguers in the system like Hummel and Fry, that trend will be broken soon.

 

Corey Hart, Scooter and Lorenzo Cain not bad. Gamel's career was derailed by injury.

[CheeseheadInQC]

To be fair, the track record after round 3 isn't quite the same. Over the last 20 years, outside of Khris Davis, you could make a case the college bat drafted after round 3 that provided the most value to the Brewers is Jason Rogers. They've gone that route a bit more heavily the last couple of years, so hopefully between Kahle, Dillard, Holt and Hamilton and now Wiemer and Cantrelle, along with a couple of other at least productive minor leaguers in the system like Hummel and Fry, that trend will be broken soon.

 

Corey Hart, Scooter and Lorenzo Cain not bad. Gamel's career was derailed by injury.

 

I was just talking college bats. I believe Hart, Scooter and Cain were all picked out of high school.

[JosephC]

I'm not much of a fan of rounds 2-5. Three of the guys seem to have rather average offensive skills. Warren holds some intrigue but generally the "we'll make the guy a catcher" approach doesn't work, so I'm pretty skeptical about that. MLB Draft becomes such a crap-shoot after the first few picks that there is really no point in being too fired up or too disappointed about what happens past the first round, but I definitely would have been targeting guys with more offensive upside and would have liked to grab a couple pitchers in there. Time will tell.

[patrickgpe]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2895061-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-after-2020-mlb-draft-results

 

first system re-ranking I have seen. As I suspected, Mitchell is our top prospect now and the brewers moved up a little bit rankings wise by drafting a bunch of college bats.

[Eye Black]

Warren holds some intrigue but generally the "we'll make the guy a catcher" approach doesn't work, so I'm pretty skeptical about that.

Based on things like the Narvaez signing and the plan to move Warren back to his high school position, I get the sense the Brewers place a very high value on offensive production at the catching position. While I agree that there are reasons to be skeptical, I think the organization could be banking on the eventual automated strike zone accelerating the developmental path necessary for the catchers.

[Eye Black]

FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen) draft recap for each team.

 

Draft Odds & Ends: Milwaukee didn’t try to get too cute, taking two toolsy college players who fell below where they belonged on talent for superficial reasons, then grabbing three interesting college projects in Zavier Warren (a switch-hitting infielder who they announced as a catcher), Joey Wiemer (huge frame and bat speed, swing is rough), and Hayden Cantrelle (a switch-hitter who sprays line to line).

[DR28]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2895061-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-after-2020-mlb-draft-results

 

first system re-ranking I have seen. As I suspected, Mitchell is our top prospect now and the brewers moved up a little bit rankings wise by drafting a bunch of college bats.

 

Hey, two spots! I'll take it... Man, I'm really high on our top 5 tho... Mitchell, Turang, Small, Feliciano and Lutz... Can't wait to watch these guys progress!

 

I honestly see Small as a poor man's Chris Sale and I really hope we lock up Woodruff long-term.

 

Woodruff

Burnes (He deserves another shot at starting)

Small

Peralta (Extension he signed belongs in the rotation)

Lauer

 

That really is a rotation to be excited about.

[SRB]

Love every single one of these picks so far.

 

There's a strong case that we snagged two top-25 prospects in terms of overall talent, and the other three picks are all ambitious fliers on guys who are arguably being underrated and have huge upside.

 

I'm not sure why anyone is knocking college bats in the first few rounds. It's probably been the single most productive draft category for the Brewers over the last couple decades, with picks among the first few rounds like Keston Hiura, Mitch Haniger, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr., and relatively few total misses.

 

To be fair, the track record after round 3 isn't quite the same. Over the last 20 years, outside of Khris Davis, you could make a case the college bat drafted after round 3 that provided the most value to the Brewers is Jason Rogers. They've gone that route a bit more heavily the last couple of years, so hopefully between Kahle, Dillard, Holt and Hamilton and now Wiemer and Cantrelle, along with a couple of other at least productive minor leaguers in the system like Hummel and Fry, that trend will be broken soon.

 

The track record for any player (hitter or pitcher, high school or college) is not going to be the same after round 3 though.

 

The only Brewers draft picks to accumulate >1.0 rWAR after round 3 since 2000 are Corey Hart, Craig Breslow, Tom Wilhelmsen, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Scooter Gennett, Caleb Thiebar, Brent Suter, Garrett Cooper, and Brandon Woodruff.

 

(Not counting players who didn't sign with us.)

 

If you set aside deep lottery tickets that panned out (Cain, Fiers, Gennett, Suter) and flukey guys who reinvented themselves as middle relievers long after getting released by the Brewers (Breslow, Wilehelmsen, Thiebar), one could argue that two out of five "expected" successes were college bats, i.e. Khris Davis and Garrett Cooper.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay, watching the videos from the signing thread. Zamora looks sound with the bat. I'm really surprised we got him, the ACL injury must be a serious concern.

 

Warren the Catcher, the video and swing doesn't impress me. He has the batter's eye approach, which can work at catcher.

 

Wiemer, whew boy, I see it. That is a huge boom or bust. His arms start high and then he sets himself at a great level and swing speed is woosh. That hitch move, I think if he can find a way to shorten the timing on it, he could take off. Get his lower body a little more underneath him, reduce the leg kick. He just has too many moving parts and a simpler motion with his bat speed could lead to huge success.

 

Cantrelle's highlights look like a hitter. A gamer. I dunno what his deal was this season that he played, but I find him already looking better than Scooter Gennett. Spraying the ball to all fields. Scott Kingery comes to mind on the gamer look and highlights. He's my pick at 3rd most likely ML and I wouldn't think it crazy to actually put him 2nd if Zamora's ACL affects his skills. What a great pick, seriously.

[CheeseheadInQC]

The track record for any player (hitter or pitcher, high school or college) is not going to be the same after round 3 though.

 

The only Brewers draft picks to accumulate >1.0 rWAR after round 3 since 2000 are Corey Hart, Craig Breslow, Tom Wilhelmsen, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Scooter Gennett, Caleb Thiebar, Brent Suter, Garrett Cooper, and Brandon Woodruff.

 

(Not counting players who didn't sign with us.)

 

If you set aside deep lottery tickets that panned out (Cain, Fiers, Gennett, Suter) and flukey guys who reinvented themselves as middle relievers long after getting released by the Brewers (Breslow, Wilehelmsen, Thiebar), one could argue that two out of five "expected" successes were college bats, i.e. Khris Davis and Garrett Cooper.

 

It just seems as if viable upside disappears more quickly with college bats than it does with any of the other three quadrants. Heck between the 2016 and 2017 drafts the college bats after round three are basically Hummel and Wilson while there are a lot more still viable pitching prospects. And if you're discounting the relievers the Brewers gave up on, the return for Cooper wasn't exactly earth-shattering.

 

That being said, I don't mind what they did this year, or even last year that much. Based on that list the one place they've had some success is low defensive value power bats (Dillard), and they've also gone high ceiling, low floor guys (Wiemer, Nnebe later on last year) or guys who there is good reason to think might be undervalued (Hamilton's injury, Cantrelle's bad couple weeks). Even Fry could fit on this list with the position change changing how much he has to hit to be viable. It just seems as if the college pitchers with lower ceiling scouting reports surprise more often than college hitters with lower ceiling scouting reports, so if pressed I generally prefer the former.

[Eye Black]

I just realized Garrett Mitchell played with Brice Turang when both were members of the Brewers Area Code Games team back in 2016 (Brewers prospect Je’Von Ward was a member of that team as well). A couple of related links,

and team roster. Their is at least one other prominent member of the organization that once played for their Area Code Games team (Christian Yelich from years earlier).

 

Will Sammon had an outstanding article for The Athletic which made me even more excited about Mitchell’s selection. Here is a small sample:

 

It sounded like the Brewers would know. Mitchell, who is represented by Scott Boras, said he and his advisers fielded many inquiries from teams regarding him playing with type 1 diabetes. Some considered him a draft risk because of it. The Brewers didn’t have to be one of them. They had long been informed about Mitchell with scouts Corey Rodriguez, Josh Belovsky and Wynn Pelzer watching him and learning about him since his high school days at Orange Lutheran in California. Mitchell played on the Brewers’ Area Code and Fall League teams. They knew him. They knew what they were getting.

 

“I can tell you wholeheartedly,” Mitchell said, “that I couldn’t be more excited to be with such a great organization, being around people that I have known since I was in high school, and feel so loved and welcomed and accepted with everything that comes with me — diabetes and all of that involved.”

 

...............................

 

“It’s not that he can’t or he’s not good at what he does,” Mitchell said he heard. “But it’s going to come down to diabetes.”

 

The questions were aired and speculated on, “Which teams want to deal with it? Who is comfortable with it?”

 

Said Mitchell, “And I’m telling you, I couldn’t be more thankful that it’s the Brewers because, one, they know me and two, I’m going to work my butt off every single day.”