2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[mattyo]

MItchell fits the Brewers mold so well with prior draft picks (up the middle, toolsy, fallen pick).

Bumpppppppp

[DHonks]

I love the idea of getting this kid around Cain to help learn work ethic. Let's face it, Cain is going to coach or manage one day and who better to learn from. Mitchell's power hasn't been tapped yet? Well, Cain was a DFE wasn't he?!?

[Eye Black]

From the Perfect Game draft report...

 

18. Garrett Mitchell, of, UCLA (JR)

L-R, 6-3/204, Orange, Calif.

Previously Drafted: Oakland ('17) 14

 

When Mitchell made it to campus he was instantly pegged as one of the top freshmen in the country based on the physicality and advanced tool set; he just needed to prove the tools would play and he’d solidify himself as a first-round talent. Over his career at UCLA Mitchell has done just that, continuously refining his overall approach as he showed in a shortened 2020 season, cutting down the strikeouts even if it was only a 15 game look. A lefthanded hitter, Mitchell’s approach at the dish is still more contact oriented, putting the ball in play as his .355 average in 2020 suggests, but scouts believe the power (which he’ll show plus raw) should continue to appear in live action as he makes refinements to his mechanical operation. He’s an easy plus runner despite his physical strength and he knows how to use it both on the bases and out in center field where you can project him to stick at the next level. If you’re looking for tools, look no further than Mitchell.

[nate82]

Dang was hoping Jordan Walker would be there in the 2nd for the Brewers.

[trwi7]

I love the idea of getting this kid around Cain to help learn work ethic.

 

Weird comment.

[Eye Black]

From The Athletic's (Keith Law’s) draft rankings...

 

12. Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA, Age: 21

 

Mitchell was a premium prospect out of Orange Lutheran HS in 2017 but was seen as unsignable due to his commitment to UCLA, doubts about how ready his bat was for pro ball, and concerns around a chronic health issue (Mitchell has Type 1 diabetes). Mitchell raked enough as a sophomore and early this spring to put himself squarely into the first round — especially given his 80 run times and plus defense in center field. The questions about his bat are at least partly answered; he hit .350/.419/.550 from the start of 2019 until the shutdown and only struck out 12 percent of the time, although I have seen him have timing issues and meet the ball out front, so it’s a contact quality issue rather than swing-and-miss. Even if he’s just a 45 hit/45 power guy in the end, his defense and speed make him a potential regular for some team that can get comfortable with an everyday player who must manage a chronic health condition.

[JDBrewCrew]

MB

9:16 Thoughts on the Brewers picking Mitchell?

Eric A Longenhagen

9:16 Good value. Not all that different from Travis Swaggerty a couple years ago and he's a top 100 guy now

 

Will Sammon

@WillSammon

1m

Mitchell became one of the best college prospects while playing with Type 1 diabetes.

Known for speed, defense, and was off to a hot start in 2020: Slashed .355/.425/.484

 

Carlos Collazo

@CarlosACollazo

2m

Just so much upside to be on the board at 20 with Garrett Mitchell. I was going to love this pick wherever he went. I love the pick. He just impacts the game in so many ways.

 

Jason A. Churchill • Baseball Things

@ProspectInsider

4m

Love Mitchell to Milwaukee.

 

 

Christopher Crawford

@Crawford_MILB

·

7m

To me, Mitchell is the steal of the draft. I get the concerns, I really do. I think he's a potential star. Love this pick.

 

I respect all these guys. Love the pick. And I wanted a pitcher....

[Eye Black]

From Baseball America's draft rankings...

 

6. Garrett Mitchell

UCLA OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 204 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Athletics '17 (14)

Age At Draft: 21.8

 

Scouts eyed Mitchell as a potential first-round pick at Orange (Calif.) Lutheran High, but a middling senior season and concerns about his Type 1 diabetes caused him to fall to the 14th round, where the A's picked him. He opted for UCLA and became a three-year starter for the Bruins. After struggling as a freshman, Mitchell led the nation in triples during a breakout sophomore season and continued to raise his stock as a junior. He was batting .355/.425/.484 this spring when the season shut down. Mitchell possesses arguably the best package of tools in the 2020 draft. He's an 80-grade runner who changes games with his speed, is a plus defensive center fielder who effortlessly glides to balls and has a rifle for an arm. Mitchell shows massive, plus-plus raw power in batting practice, but his choppy swing produces mostly grounders and low line drives in games. His natural feel for contact gives him a chance to be an above-average or better hitter, and his natural speed and elite times out of the box should help inflate his batting average. Some evaluators are optimistic Mitchell can tap into his power with swing refinements in pro ball, but his in-game power production is concerning dating back to his high school career. Mitchell’s speed helps him to beat out infield singles and amass lots of doubles and triples, making him an offensive difference-maker even absent home run power. Mitchell has faced health and endurance concerns because of his diabetes throughout his career, but he played 62 of 63 games for UCLA in 2019 and all 15 games in 2020 before the season shut down. With a high probability to hit for average, steal bases and stay in center field, and the possibility of adding power, Mitchell is a top-10 talent, though his question marks make him a bit more polarizing than the other players around him.

[patrickgpe]

He wasn’t a player I was focusing on, because nobody had him around at 20. ESPN did have a lot of good stuff to say on, besides him being diabetic, but it doesn’t seem like a big deal. After reading a little about the player. I’m happy. Seems like a guy that can replace Cain in a few years.

[Eye Black]

From 2080 Baseball's draft rankings...

 

19. Garrett Mitchell (OF, Univ. of California – Los Angeles)

 

Highly regarded out of national prep power Orange Lutheran (Calif.), we ranked Mitchell ranked as the #43rd best prospect in the 2017 class. Three years later, he’s parlayed a broad toolset with a strong collegiate track record to place him squarely into first round consideration. One of the fastest runners in the draft, he consistently gets down the line in the 4.0 range from the left side (70-grade), and his legs are an asset running down balls in the gaps as well. His arm strength also rates out as plus. Mitchell has made strides with the bat over the past three years, cutting down on his strikeouts and showing above average power potential in batting practice. Much has been made of Mitchell’s Type 1 diabetes, a condition that he’s managed without issue thus far during his athletic career.

[narwhalattack]

I was hoping for a pitcher, but this is definitely a steal. Didn’t think we’d be getting a top 10 player at 20.

[Eye Black]

From MLB Pipeline's draft rankings...

 

6. Garrett Mitchell

OF, UCLA

 

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

HIT

60

POWER

50

RUN

70

ARM

60

FIELD

50

OVERALL

55

 

Mitchell was a solid high school prospect at Orange Lutheran in California, one who was firmly in the middle of the Draft Top 100 in 2017. As toolsy as they come, concerns about his ability to tap into those tools consistently and his commitment to UCLA led to him not being selected until the 14th round (by the A's). He started to make good on his potential during a strong sophomore season with the Bruins, though he didn't get a chance to show what he could do with Team USA after a leg injury forced him off the Collegiate National Team. He wasn’t fully cleared last fall, but he still impressed scouts with his batting practice sessions, and he had all tools on display this spring.

 

Mitchell has made real strides with his swing, one of the concerns when he was coming out of high school. He hit consistently for the first time in 2019 and he was doing it again during his junior season. He showed plus power in BP and his ability to transfer that to games makes him one of the top picks in the country. Big and strong, Mitchell is an easily plus runner who can steal bases and cover a ton of ground in center field, a premium position he'll be able to play long term with the chance to develop into at least an above-average defender in time.

 

Mitchell has been playing with Type 1 diabetes since being diagnosed in third grade and has shown he can be a premium athlete while dealing with the disease. Armed with perhaps the best collection of tools in this Draft class, the team taking him will be the one that believes he will be able to use those tools consistently in games at the pro level.

[Yount19]

So where does he fall in the Brewers top prospects? is he number 1?

[DR28]

Holy ****, our OF is gonna be stacked!!

 

Yelich

Mitchell

Lutz

 

Wow, I can’t wait to watch that!

[DR28]

So where does he fall in the Brewers top prospects? is he number 1?

 

Oh yea, definitely.

 

We’re gonna have 3 top 100 next year... Mitchell, Turang and Small.

[Eye Black]

From FanGraphs draft rankings...

 

14. Garrett Mitchell

 

TLDR

Teams had $1 million evals on Mitchell out of high school but several also had concerns about his hit tool and he ended up at UCLA. He has huge raw power and straight line speed but his swing has generated mixed opinions for a while now.

 

Full Report

Note the gap between Mitchell's projected game power output and his raw juice, one that probably needs a swing change to close. Curt, punchy, and geared for gap contact, Mitchell's current cut is more fluid and dynamic than it was in high school, when teams had million-dollar evals on him despite largely taking issue with his swing efficacy, but he still has limited power utility on pitches away from him. The swing changes Mitchell made at UCLA are perhaps evidence he can make more as a pro, but I think this gap approach works fine and is best depoyed by sprinters like Mitchell, who has retained his plus-plus speed despite bulking up quite a bit since high school. Without impact game power Mitchell is unlikely to be a star, but the offensive improvements he made in college combined with his defensive fit in center give him a good shot to be an everyday center fielder.

[shanedog19]

I would have to think he has a legit chance of being our #1 prospect out of the gate. What a steal to get a talent like him at 20!

[Soupbone]

I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.

[Never Outhustled]

I like the pick, because he's a sure thing defensively with power potential. Now it's just a question of if he fulfills that promise. Will he hit like George Springer, or Kirk Nieuwenhuis?

[Never Outhustled]

I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.

 

 

Don't be, he's was a significantly better hitter as a sophomore than Ray was a a junior. His swing isn't smooth, but he makes contact, which Ray never could.

[MrTPlush]

I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.

 

Well...it isn’t a terrible loose comparison for a somewhat raw college hitter. Good news is we drafted Mitchell #20 instead of #5. It’s not often you can draft a college hitter with as much potential as Mitchell at #20...so it’s pretty cool to get him into the system.

 

Kind of reminded more of Monte Harrison (though Harrison was a HS guy). Pretty raw, huge power that doesn’t show up in game, and lots of tools.

 

Sure, maybe high risk, but we are drafting at #20. Dude could totally flop and I’m not going to fault the team for rolling the dice that far into the first round.

[Brewcrewin07]

Not saying this isn't a great pick, because it is, but I wish the Brewers would take more guys with big time power already established, as opposed to power potential.

[narwhalattack]

Yelich, Hiura, and Mitchell. Our lineup’s gonna be insane in a few years

[brewerfan82]

So where does he fall in the Brewers top prospects? is he number 1?

Here are his Pipeline Draft Rankings tools compared to the best tools in the Brewers' system prior to tonight (source: https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-2020-top-30-prospects-list):

 

HIT

Mitchell: 60 (#1), Top Rated Brewers: 55 (Brice Turang, Hedbert Perez)

 

POWER

Mitchell: 50, Top Rated Brewers: 55 (Mario Feliciano, Tristen Lutz, Corey Ray, Luis Medina, Thomas Dillard)

 

RUN

Mitchell: 70 (#1), Top Rated Brewers: 60 (Corey Ray, Brice Turang, Hedbert Perez, Carlos Rodriguez, Eduarqui Fernandez)

 

ARM

Mitchell: 60, Top Rated Brewer: 70 (Lucas Erceg)

 

FIELD

Mitchell: 50, Top Rated Brewer: 60 (Carlos Rodriguez)

 

OVERALL

Mitchell: 55 (#1), Top Rated Brewers: 50 (Brice Turang, Mario Feliciano, Tristen Lutz, Eduardo Garcia, Hedbert Perez)

[JosephC]

I like the pick. Totally predictable that Mitchell was going to be the pick at #20 because he perfectly fits that toolsy outfielder profile. Was he the highest upside bat left on the board? I'd probably say so.

 

There does seem to be a significant boom-or-bust factor. It's also probably pretty likely that the Brewers plan to make some potentially major adjustments in his swing when reading about the ground ball and high percentage of low angle liners that currently come off his bat. Will be interesting to watch his progress.