Hardy vs. Hall

[treego]

Quote:

---

No I don't. You missed the point. All your arguements for putting Hall in at short work better for putting Hall at 2nd. He is light years ahead of Weeks defensively and comparable offensively. Why won't you use your arguements evenly across the board?

---

 

Your point makes no sense. Hall is better than Hardy. Weeks is better than Hardy. But you want Hall to replace Weeks instead of Hardy. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

[SoCalBrewfan]

Actually his best season was in A ball.

 

See for yourself.

 

Even if High Desert were a neutral park that would be incorrect...his OBP and SLG are better in Huntsville '03 as well as Indy '04. Given that High Desert plays in the class A version of Coors Field, your claim is all the more wrong.

 

Treego, I think many people have made posts supporting elements of your claims...but you're really going beyond what the facts can support. Even the title is a stretch...it's not Hardy's range that is the worst in MLB, it's that his Range Factor is the lowest. That's a very different creature. I may be way off here, but the same facts presented in a less confrontational way might get a better reception.

 

(Then again, this is a fast-growing thread, and maybe the way to get attention is to take extreme positions.)

[Blue584ever]

In an article about "chic" baseball statistics in USA Today, rookie J.J. Hardy was ranked as having the least range among major-league shortstops

 

I just scrolled through 6 pages and no one posted/linked the USA today article? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[brettac1]

I did, at 3:00. Should've bolded it, I guess.

 

www.usatoday.com/sports/b...-stats.htm

 

I would suggest going to the "My Control Center" thing, clicking on "Account Preferences", and changing the "Number of Replies Per Page" to a huge number. I believe mine is set at 10,000. This way you don't have to read through pages and pages of posts, it also cuts down of page views.

[backup catchers]

Your point makes no sense. Hall is better than Hardy. Weeks is better than Hardy. But you want Hall to replace Weeks instead of Hardy.

 

Weeks 244/320/407 ops 726 Horrible defense

Hardy 238/322/368 ops 690 Good defense

 

I don't see how one is doing so much better than the other for you to say with such certainty one is better than the other. When you factor in defense which Hardy is light years ahead of Weeks the offensive numbers look pretty even. Then again maybe you don't value solid defense up the middle as much as I do.

[pogokat]

This shall be a warning to all:

 

Direct attacks of other posters with no message will be deleted...if they happen again, you will be formally warned.

[treego]

Quote:

---

Even if High Desert were a neutral park that would be incorrect...his OBP and SLG are better in Huntsville '03 as well as Indy '04. Given that High Desert plays in the class A version of Coors Field, your claim is all the more wrong. Treego, I think many people have made posts supporting elements of your claims...but you're really going beyond what the facts can support. Even the title is a stretch...it's not Hardy's range that is the worst in MLB, it's that his Range Factor is the lowest.

---

 

I corrected my original post to say "A and/or AA." It's a tossup there. There is no way one can objectively state that Hardy had any real AAA exposure that merits any discussion of his accomplishments at that level. 26 games is not enough to gauge his skill level in comparison to other AAA players, realistically.

 

I stand by the title of the thread. I think that the range rating has a good level of validity at rating ranginess of defensive players ... if enough games are played. Of course, in a small random sample such statistics can possibly come up with laughingly inaccurate material.

[treego]

Quote:

---

I don't see how one is doing so much better than the other for you to say with such certainty one is better than the other. When you factor in defense which Hardy is light years ahead of Weeks the offensive numbers look pretty even. Then again maybe you don't value solid defense up the middle as much as I do.

---

 

I do value solid ranging defense up the middle. That's why Hall should play SS, notwithstanding Hall's superiority in offensive speed and power and batting average.

 

It is more apt to sacrifice a little defensively for the sake of offense at 2nd base, generally, anyway. SS is the busiest position that requires the most range.

 

That said, we all know that Weeks will far exceed what Hardy is gonna' do offensively. The proof of that is not just this season at MLB, but in the minor league stats. Weeks thumb injury is probably buggin' him, too. He will be better when the thumb is better. If his thumb is really hampering him, perhaps he should sit for awhile as you say and let Hall and Hardy team up while the thumb gets repaired through time or surgery.

 

Enjoy the game tonight, everybody! I hope Hardy, Hall, and Weeks all excel tonight! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif I'm a Brewers fan.

[Blue584ever]

Thanks Brett. The stat is interesting, I doubt it means much. BIll James often looks to find a way to quantify things that have only been looked at in a qualitative way. Innovative, yes. But it's clearly a work in progress.

 

I'm sure there's a handful of reasons the stats turn out the way they do, but there's too many factors that can be tossed in to skew the results. Maybe having 2 lefties in the rotation skews the number of balls he gets to because less are being hit to him. Or it's hard to pull the ball on alot of our hard throwers. Or maybe the wind was blowing just right.

 

I like reading Bill James, and alot of what he says makes sense, but even he admits some of the new ways to quantify ability are still rough. Especially when you look at defense.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I would suggest going to the "My Control Center" thing, clicking on "Account Preferences", and changing the "Number of Replies Per Page" to a huge number. I believe mine is set at 10,000. This way you don't have to read through pages and pages of posts, it also cuts down of page views.

 

Nice tip. Why didn't I do that a long time ago? Sigh.

 

Maybe someday I'll even get one of those signature things all the kids have these days...

[Brian the Automator]

[ What's our alternative at 2B right now? ]

 

http://espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/6992.jpg

[SoCalBrewfan]

Speaking of range factor, Geoff Jenkins has posted the highest RF of his career so far. It's 2.36 this year as compared to 1.93 and 1.78 the last two years. Now, has Jenkins improved his range? (Sure, he was a LF before this year...I've not seen a systematic difference for LF vs. RF unless there are park factors or pitching staff effects in play.)

 

Hall's RF at short this year is lower than his RF at short last year. The same is true of his RF at 3b. His RF at 2b is slightly higher. (Some of those comparison are small #s of innings, but the SS numbers are 300+ innings each year). Branyan's RF at 3b for Milwaukee this year is quite a bit lower than 04 (2.48 vs. 3.14 last year).

 

Without having detailed spray charts, that's suggestive that there might very well be fewer ground balls going to the left side of the infield than was the case last year...for whatever reason. And that there may be more flyballs going to RF. Something to keep in mind when looking at range factors...

 

For whatever it's worth, the baseballprospectus.com stats are based on the same raw numbers as range factor (i.e., no play-by-play data) but take park and staff effects into account, and have Hardy just 2% below average.

[backup catchers]

we all know that Weeks will far exceed what Hardy is gonna' do offensively.

 

That's fine I even agree with you but you mentioned in an earlier post that this is the major leagues and production is what counts. I may bve wrong but I believe since the All-star break Hardy has out produced Weeks. I don't have the numbers but since they are so close over the year and Hardy had that bad start Hardy must be out producing Weeks offensivley. Normally I would say it's the whole year's production that counts but since Hardy was coming off that injury his early shortcomings have to be taken with a grain of salt. So it's back to my point that if you want to bench one or the other in favor of Hall it should be Weeks. Myself I like the two rookies playing every day.

 

Enjoy the game tonight, everybody! I hope Hardy, Hall, and Weeks all excel tonight! I'm a Brewers fan.

 

Amen to thathttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[RoseBowlMtg]

How do they factor Dauer's adjustments. I know no other SS picked up a ground ball hit right to the second baseman's spot like Hardy did last week.

 

That being said JJ is very good and will be great for the next 13 years!

[treego]

@ Brian the Automator:

 

If you think Rickie Weeks isn't good enough right now to play in light of alternatives, what is your starting left side of the infield?

 

Are you saying SS: Hardy, 2B: Hall, 3B: Cirillo/Branyan/Helms?

 

I'd much rather have SS: Hall (gotta' put the best range guy at SS), 2B: Weeks (if thumb is bothering him too much, put Hardy in there), 3B: platoon Cirillo/Helms vs. LHP and Branyan vs. RHP (if Branyan's shoulder is hurting too much for consistent play, let Cirillo have the bulk of time because of his more solid defense and proven bat throughout his career).

 

For next season, I'd like to see Hall at SS, Weeks at 2B, and Hart/Branyan at 3B. Hardy is okay for utility work around the left side of the infield.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

 

P.S. How about Hall tonight? He's carrying that big bat up to the plate again tonight! Single! Single! Triple! Single! They cannot get him out tonight! And how about that ranging play in the 9th inning play with his back to the infield to snare that looping line drive/blooper! The guy's a cornerstone player. MVP tonight! He's only 25 years old on top of it!

[GenoSeligPrieb]

First of all, thanks to backup catchers and 1992 casey, for the kind words. Much appreciated...

 

Anyway (migod, this thread got long FAST, didn't it?), Brian, you ARE right of course about there being a difference between airing out umpires vs. airing out your own players, and judging by my stance on the very public and embarrassing Mike DeJean-vs.-Jerry Royster debacle, you KNOW which way I'm leaning here.

 

I guess my point was that Bobby Cox may project a passive veneer, but it's tough to reconcile that with the fact that he's been tossed so often. That's all...

[ja002h]

Hardy's not a 2B.

[treego]

Quote:

---

Hardy's not a 2B.

---

 

Well, I agree that he wouldn't make as good a 2B as Hall or Weeks, but I don't think he makes as good a SS as Hall, either. I think he could start for Weeks while Weeks is fighting a thumb injury, though.

[dadofandrew]

I'm sure I'm repeating stuff, but:

 

Range factor is worthless when comparing players from sepatrate teams. A SS playing for a RH, fly ball staff could have outstanding range and still have a bad range factor.

 

I wonder if the alien defense hurts the players in all defensive categories, as I don't think any adjustments are made.

 

I find it difficult to believe anyone is still using RF, as it's been years since anyone took it seriously.

[Brian the Automator]

[ If you think Rickie Weeks isn't good enough right now to play in light of alternatives, what is your starting left side of the infield? ]

 

???

 

Perhaps you misunderstood the point I was trying to make in my post. I was saying that despite rookies quite often having numbers that aren't as good as the alternatives, they need their reps to get over the learning curve.

 

[ How about Hall tonight? He's carrying that big bat up to the plate again tonight! Single! Single! Triple! Single! They cannot get him out tonight! And how about that ranging play in the 9th inning play with his back to the infield to snare that looping line drive/blooper! The guy's a cornerstone player. ]

 

Good for him. He's a fine player, i'm not arguing that. Of course, I don't make my decisions on who's going to be better based on one game or even one season.

[strawbossisevil]

Quote:

---

It makes me wonder if that some of us root for the lighter skinned guy because he looks more like us than the other guy, sometime.

---

 

This did not need to be said, and I take it very personally that you would even imply that. That said,

 

Hardy has been the superior SS offensively and defensively since the All Star Break. Did he take his lumps early in the season? Yes, but that was expected. But he appears over that now and is on his way to provide consistent solid numbers.

 

If he hasn't, prove to me that he has not put up better numbers than Hall since then? I think you'd be hard pressed to find them.

 

Also as many point out on this site, steals are not as valuable as most percieve them to be. Hardy is what he is, a solid #2 hitter. He doesn't strike out at near the rate of Hall. When Hall is not "in the zone" he drags any offensive production down with him by striking out over and over again. I'm not saying I don't think Hall is a solid player. I believe the Brewers are in a great position in that they have a lot of strength in the area of middle infield. Plus, as many have continued to point out, Hall will be able to get a large number of starts at 3B. He has the athletesism to be moved around anywhere on the diamond, so he will get a solid number of at bats. Having someone that flexible is great. But if we glued him down at SS, who would we have to fill in that role on the team. Hardy? Didn't think so.

[treego]

Quote:

---

This did not need to be said, and I take it very personally that you would even imply that.

---

 

Perhaps, you need to read my comment on that in full context. If your heart is pure in this regard and you are 100% certain you are not pulling for Hardy because he is like-skinned with you, then you are clear. Why take personally something that does not apply to you, then?

 

I'm not immune to this sort of thing, though. I admit it. I don't consider myself racist, but I have been prone to pulling for guys of my own skin color (I happen to be Caucasian) in similar situations. If I can do it, I'm sure others can do it, also. Of course, it is not something most people will readily admit to, though. I know white guys that will root for the white guys more heartily because they are white guys. I know black guys that will root more heartily for the black guys because they are black guys. It is human nature. Such human nature can be overcome by the Spirit of God and having deep and meaningful relationships with people of other races, I believe, but it is not something that comes naturally for many people.

 

All said and done, I still find it inexplicable that some here can argue that Hardy is better than Hall. It is so illogical to me that I cannot help but wonder about the racial component to this. If that offends you or others, then I have to wonder if you are, in fact, prone to such things as I'm describing.

[DHonks]

could someone please shut this thread down. It's delving too deeply into an issue we all hate seeing discussed, because it's not baseball related.

[treego]

Quote:

---

If he hasn't, prove to me that he has not put up better numbers than Hall since then? I think you'd be hard pressed to find them.

---

 

Why narrow the picture to such a degree? If you want to do that, looking at September numbers ... Hall is hitting .348 and playing stellar defense and making things happen on the bases. Hardy is hitting .333 while playing average defense and making nothing happen on the bases. I'm encouraged by Hardy's hitting of late, certainly. I'm not blind to that. Perhaps, he wil have earned playing time for next season by now. I still cannot see how what he has done for a portion of the season somehow justifies putting Hall on the bench or taking Hall away from his natural position. Hall's BA is actually better after the All-Star break than before, besides ... did you know that?

 

Daron Sutton said on tonight's TV broadcast that he asked Hall last night at a public event what position Hall wanted to play, and Hall diplomatically answered, "Starter." Hall needs to be a starter for the Brewers. Anything else would be an injustice and a very bad decision on the Brewers part. I cannot say the same thing should Hardy be delegated to a part-timer without a regular position.

 

For the season, Hall's ------ BA-OBP-SLG is .283,.331,.477

For the season, Hardy's --- BA-OBP-SLG is .241,.326,.372

 

For the season Hall's SB's ----- 18 (that's 18 singles/walks that are effectively doubles --- it even accentuates Hall's slugging superiority)

For the season, Hardy's SB's - 0

 

Season, Hall's SS Fielding-Range Factor --- .975/4.41

Season, Hardy's Fielding-Range Factor------- .973/3.78

 

Hall is towering over the competition:

 

http://graphics.jsonline.com/graphics/sports/brew/img/aug04/shall831.jpg

 

Hall doesn't deserve to be #2 ... he deserves to be #1:

 

http://reds.enquirer.com/2004/04/28/hallhr.jpg

[treego]

Quote:

---

could someone please shut this thread down. It's delving too deeply into an issue we all hate seeing discussed, because it's not baseball related.

---

 

What are you talking about? You cannot be honest about your feelings here? It is related to baseball, certainly, since there is an interracial makeup to this team and the players discussed here.