Hardy vs. Hall

[brettac1]

That is valid, SoCal, but what I was really pointing out was that Hardy has hit well for more than a month. If you use Casey's jumpoff point, Hall has a .792 OPS over the time and Hardy is at .788. Hall's is helped by his SLG, while Hardy has walked all year, and will likely continue to. That's really my main beef with Hall, as you obviously know quite well, and the reason I like Hardy.

 

EDIT: What Danzig said is also right, obviously. The front offices have much more advanced ways of judging their players' defensive talents. Toby said that a while back, too, but I think it kind of was missed.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Do you have anything to add besides citing that I have been questioning Yost's anointing of Hardy as starting SS in spite of batting average, slugging average, defensive range, speed considerations which all point to Hall as the just-earned starter? ]

 

Yeah, he's got an .851 OPS since the all-star break. He was rushed to the majors, and obviously, it showed. It was expected that Hardy would struggle this year, but sometimes, you have to play for the future when you think your prospect is worth it.

 

Yost AND Melvin believe Hardy's going to be the better long-term player.

 

If you just run with the theory that you always bench the rookie in favor of the guy with better numbers, you never give your rookie the time to adjust. In JJ's case, he was given a rotten deal to start the year since he missed most of the AAA season in 2004 due to injury.

[treego]

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I'm a newbie and wouldn't know the cliques here from Adam, but it's pretty obvious when someone has an axe to grind! Didn't this thread start out being about Hardy's D and a shot against Yost in the process, and didn't others here pretty much refute the original assertions?

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I have seen no refutation. The closest thing I've seen is one person's post that questioned the range rating based on a range rating putting Helms as the 3rd baseman with the most range on the Brewers.

 

Other than that, Hall's speed, slugging, range, and batting average all weigh heavily in favor of Hall over Hardy at SS.

 

In an attempt to be agreeable with most here, I could see Hardy at SS and Hall at 3B since Hall is the better athlete and could make the adjustment to 3B better than Hardy. But that means we lose Branyan's power or Helms' much improved bat this season, also.

[homer]

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I've ripped Hardy for good reason. He's been horrible up until the past month or so.

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Actually he's been average to very good the entire second half while Hall did most of his damage in the first half.

 

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He's humble, but has greater speed, power, range and batting average. I guess I don't have to wonder why Hall doesn't get the benefit of the doubt while Hardy does, huh?

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One reason is because most people on this board look at stats other than batting average to determine hitting prowess. Hall was very good in the first half (OPS of .846) and pretty average to below average in the second (OPS of .726) (For comparison sake, Hardy was .560 pre and .851 post) I agree with others that defense is best judged by the eye, but there are some stats we can look at for comparison sake. Hall has 6 errors in 242 chances at SS (2.48% ) Hardy has 10 errors in 375 chances (2.67%). FP% Hall .975 Hardy .973. I think most people would agree Hall has more range and a better arm than Hardy, but they seem to be pretty equal when it comes to balls they reach. I don't think you can say one guy is that much better than the other, really.

 

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And I like to see why people defend Hardy to such a degree as they do in the face of these obvious facts.

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I wonder how you'll respond to the actual facts I've presented on Bill Hall.

 

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It just seems that there is something going on here that defies logic, though.

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I agree. It defies logic that you are creating an argument against a player that A) is not stealing time from the player you are in favor of and B) has outproduced the player you are in favor of at the plate over the course of the last three months and equaled his performance in the field over the duration of the entire season.

[brettac1]

In an attempt to be agreeable with most here, I could see Hardy at SS and Hall at 3B since Hall is the better athlete and could make the adjustment to 3B better than Hardy. But that means we lose Branyan's power or Helms' much improved bat this season, also.

 

I'd actually prefer to see Hall as a utility/platoon guy with Branyan. Cirillo will likely be back, but it doesn't mean he has to play a lot, he could be a 25th man and I don't think he'd mind it a bit.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Offensively, as a SS, J.J.'s been above average on the season, he's been well above average since May 23rd (when he was benched to work in the cage), he's been further above average since the All Star Break, and he's been even more above average in the last month.

 

I might be misreading, but I see Hardy as below average at SS for the season...all your other points are correct though.

 

www.baseballprospectus.co...jj01.shtml

 

Going forward, Hardy is likely to be the more valuable commodity, since he's younger, has quite a bit less service time, and, given normal career paths for both guys, is likely to have a stronger prime.

 

That said, I think it's possible to see Hardy as the shortstop of the future, but still recognize the value of Hall, and even admit the very strong possibility that Hall is the better shortstop, all things considered, right now.

 

Also, I think it's extremely likely that the team would have a better record had Hall started the year at SS ahead of Hardy...we might well have even been closer to the Wild Card race. Hardy was just awful for half a season, and cost the team a lot offensively. Still, it's not clear that it would have been better for the team long-term...I think Hardy's learned from his experiences in a way that he might not have in Nashville, and it's obvious to everyone that he has in fact been chosen as the SS of the future.

[treego]

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Yeah, he's got an .851 OPS since the all-star break. He was rushed to the majors, and obviously, it showed. It was expected that Hardy would struggle this year, but sometimes, you have to play for the future when you think your prospect is worth it. Yost AND Melvin believe Hardy's going to be the better long-term player. If you just run with the theory that you always bench the rookie in favor of the guy with better numbers, you never give your rookie the time to adjust. In JJ's case, he was given a rotten deal to start the year since he missed most of the AAA season in 2004 due to injury.

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Good points. Those have been my main beefs this season. Why was he rushed to the MLB, especially coming of a shortened season in 2004 due to a serious injury? I don't care if a guy is a rookie or not. This is the MLB. Produce better than an/the alternative or sit! Hardy has not produced better than the alternative at SS. Thankfully for the Brewrers, Hardy has had some success post-All-Star break. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[backup catchers]

I have seen no refutation. The closest thing I've seen is one person's post that questioned the range rating based on a range rating putting Helms as the 3rd baseman with the most range on the Brewers.

 

You might want to go back and read more carefully.

[homer]

Hardy has the second highest OPS since the All Star break of among regular SS in the NL. Bill Hall is like 13th.

[1992casey]

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I have to say that looks like you're choosing an arbitrary endpoint just because it supports your conclusion. While I think it's fair to say that Hardy is a better hitter going forward than his first 200 plate appearances this year would suggest, it's also reasonable to be cautious about his abilities and not assume that he's as good as his last 180. Similarly, Hall hasn't looked as good as he did in his best two months, but seems to have taken a step forward from what we was last year.

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I mentioned on another forum today that with both Hall and Hardy we have to 'slice and dice' the stats. How we lay them out is certainly open to refute.

 

Giving Hall credit where it's due, September is well on its way to being a third excellent month. He's even drawing walks! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif That makes me feel better about him, even though we've seen the 'same old, same old' during three other months.

 

For the past couple months, I've consistently used May 23rd because that's when J.J. has come back from being benched to work in the cage. It's a tangible date to work with and there's been a difference since then. To apply that date to Hall probably wouldn't be fair.

 

What I like about J.J. is that he's trended upward. The positive about Billy is that he's been very good more often than he has in the past. Both of these statements speak well of the two players.

[treego]

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I wonder how you'll respond to the actual facts I've presented on Bill Hall.

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What stats have you shown that show Hardy has been the better player than Hall this season?

 

Hall's fielding percentage is better at SS.

 

Hall has a better range rating by all acknowledged sources that rate range.

 

Hall has a higher slugging percentage. It's not even close here.

 

Hall has far more speed. Check the stolen bases for proof of this (let alone the range rating differences).

 

All you have to go on are Hardy's offensive stats while playing maybe 65%-75% of the time since the All-Star break. We're talking barely over 150 AB's. I hope you and Ned are right ... if we insist on playing him ... if I were Hall, I wouldn't be a "happy camper" though and would be hoping to be traded this off-season. Hall is hitting .308 in September (.272 in August), by the way. Hardly would I say Hall has been a 1st half only wonder!

[danzig6767]

Hall would be a fine everyday option at SS,he just has the bad fortune of being on a team that has a young talent like Hardy and the Brewers are going to give him every chance to prove he's the SS of the future.

 

Just because many people on here are high on Hardy's future doesnt mean we all dislike Hall.I know some on this board cant stand him,but i dont fall in that group and many others think he's a valuable player.If Hall was an everyday SS this year,his OPS would be 6th in all of baseball at his position.Some want to cherry pick his numbers,but the fact is he's had an outstanding year and improved greatly.His numbers should be compared to other middle infielders,not thirdbaseman IMO when making an asessment of Hall as a player.On many other teams he'd be playing SS or second,not thirdbase.

 

With that said,i think Hardy has the chance to be better and should be given the chance to prove it.If Hall continues to work hard and improve,he'll get a starting SS job soon enough on enough team.Lots of worse option than Hall on other teams.

[treego]

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You might want to go back and read more carefully.

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I have been reading it all day.

 

Hall > Hardy with respect to speed, power, batting average, and defensive range.

 

Hall = Hardy with respect to sure handedness (reflected in fielding percentage)

 

Hardy > Hall in terms of finding greater favor with Brewer management.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I don't care if a guy is a rookie or not. This is the MLB. Produce better than an/the alternative or sit! ]

 

That just doesn't make any sense to me, though. You give a rookie exactly one shot to produce, then write him off because he's not cutting it?

 

Alright, just bench Rickie Weeks, then. He's only got a .746 OPS and a bunch of defensive miscues. Might as well trade him for some other guy with less errors and just put up a .760 OPS.

 

Overbay's got a better OPS than Fielder, and is better defensively as well. Off with Prince's head!

 

The reality is, at some point you have to bite the bullet and let a rookie work through their struggles... especially when you're a small market team and need the prospects you've been banking on (quite literally) to be given the chance to succeed at the major league level.

 

Hardy's progression clearly supports this argument... I don't think many here would deny that his rise in offense isn't just some statistical fluke.

[backup catchers]

Why was he rushed to the MLB, especially coming of a shortened season in 2004 due to a serious injury?

 

I think it was because, prior to this year, Bill Hall didn't show enough to be considered a viable alternative.

 

I don't care if a guy is a rookie or not. This is the MLB. Produce better than an/the alternative or sit! Hardy has not produced better than the alternative at SS.

 

The alternative at short was playing 3rd most of the time. So the real comparison isn't who is the best shortstop it is what is the best combination for the infield.

[huntsvillefan]

Back to the original question about D.

JJ is my favorite Brewer, but if he and Hall are making SS errors at roughly the same rate, I'd bet the ranch on Hall being a better SS at the minute.

Hall's only fault was a propensity for errors, apart from that he has it all. JJ's big assets are getting a good read and being rock solid. He is as slow as molasses and despite good positioning and good jumps has nothing like Hall's range.

Now longterm, I think he'll probably hit better than Hall and I think that this year has been a necessary part of his growth with the bat. He has always taken his time to adjust to new levels. But any time Bill Hall can match him in error rate, Bill is defending better at SS IMO.

[backup catchers]

Treego why have you thought about Hall replacing Weeks or is it just Hardy? It is a serious question because your arguements so far probably work better with Hall as the second baseman over Weeks than they do Hall over Hardy.

[treego]

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Alright, just bench Rickie Weeks, then. He's only got a .746 OPS and a bunch of defensive miscues. Might as well trade him for some other guy with less errors and just put up a .760 OPS.

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What's our alternative at 2B right now? Weeks has shown at every level of the minors he can hit, also! Weeks has power and speed, also ... something Hardy can hardly lay claim to. Hardy didn't prove anything at AAA. Gimme' a break!

[treego]

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Treego why have you thought about Hall replacing Weeks or is it just Hardy? It is a serious question because your arguements so far probably work better with Hall as the second baseman over Weeks than they do Hall over Hardy.

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You actually think Hardy is a better ballplayer than Weeks, too? Oh, my! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eek.gif

[backup catchers]

What's our alternative at 2B right now?

 

Bill Hall.

[danzig6767]

Hardy didn't prove anything at AAA. Gimme' a break!

 

His best year in the minors was in AAA

[treego]

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The alternative at short was playing 3rd most of the time. So the real comparison isn't who is the best shortstop it is what is the best combination for the infield.

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Yes, I've already spoken to this, too.

 

Hall (SS) and Helms/Branyan/Cirillo (3B) looks better than any combo that has Hardy at SS and 3/4 of the Hall/Helms/Branyan/Cirillo group on the bench.

[backup catchers]

You actually think Hardy is a better ballplayer than Weeks, too? Oh, my!

 

No I don't.

You missed the point.

All your arguements for putting Hall in at short work better for putting Hall at 2nd. He is light years ahead of Weeks defensively and comparable offensively. Why won't you use your arguements evenly across the board?

[treego]

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His best year in the minors was in AAA

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101 AB's (26 games) is considered a season? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eek.gif

 

Actually his best season was in A ball in 2002 or AA in 2003.

 

See for yourself.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think Hall is most valuable, in the abstract at least, as a SS, because he is at least average defensively there and outhits nearly everyone at the position by a mile. On a team without an elite SS prospect like Hardy, which is to say most of the teams in MLB, he'd surely be the SS of the present as well as the future.

 

That said, it's at least possible that the best Brewers team going forward may have Hardy and Hall in the middle IF and Weeks in CF (by that I mean ~2 years out, by which time Braun ought to be knocking on the door). It may be that Hall at SS, Hardy at 2B is the better alignment there, but I think it's probably too close to call. I'm not ready to give up on Weeks at 2b defensively, but he does have some learning to do.