Hardy vs. Hall

[augie46]

I haven't read every post in this thread so I hope I am not being repetitive. I wonder how many flyball outs vs. ground ball outs the Brewers get, and how it compares to other teams. I think we get more flyball outs than most teams, thereby reducing JJ's ability to make plays.

[1992casey]

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(Offensive metrics have) also been around for much longer. Many of the defensive metrics are in their relative infancy when compared to things like OBP.

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Not only that, when statheads come up with a new offensive metric, they frequently have the raw data to apply the new stat to what's happened well into the past. We don't have the benefit of such data on defense.

[1992casey]

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Honestly, I'd much rather have low-key Ned than a screwball who, when he was a Marlins coach, could be seen looking around for the cameras, and only then, gave the "choke" sign to the Cub dugout during the Bartman series.

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Geno,

 

If we had a post of the week award, I swear you'd win it at least half of the time! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Oldcity]

Treego, I don't mean to attack you, but Brian is correct in his assumption. Either you like Bill Hall a lot (which is great), or you don't like Hardy (which is fine too). But it is apparent that you are trying to paint a bad picture of Hardy AND Yost to manipulate facts into making your guy look better, and making Hardy look worse than he is.

 

On the JS boards all season you ripped Hardy's offense and you ripped Yost for playing him. Now that he's hitting, you refuse to give Yost credit for sticking with him through his offensive struggles, and you don't even give Hardy credit for hitting. You go right to defense and range factor. There's nothing wrong with giving credit where credit is due sometimes. There is something wrong, though, with trying to create a stir over a problem that probably doesn't exist.

 

In a different note, Hall has settled in pretty well at third. Why make the stink about it now? Hall is playing pretty much every day, and he has definitely played more than Hardy this season.

[1992casey]

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I wonder how many flyball outs vs. ground ball outs the Brewers get, and how it compares to other teams. I think we get more flyball outs than most teams, thereby reducing JJ's ability to make plays.

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Brett mentioned it on page 2:

 

The Cardinals, as a team, have a 1.74 GB/FB ratio - by far and away the highest in either league (the next closest is 1.52). The Brewers sit at 1.11, second lowest in the NL.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Range factor is hardly the newest and most trusted defensive stat out there. As noted, it's affected by park factors and particularly the pitching staff...including strikeout rate, flyball / groundball ratio, and even handedness (lots of LHP likely mean more plays for the SS and 3B). Most statheads would consider the stats based on play-by-play data to be more reliable...honestly I think it's best to triangulate, comparing all the known stats along with subjective observations.

 

It is still notable that Hall's RF and fielding % are well ahead of Hardy's...the biases that make comparisons across teams flawed don't apply in that case. Though I can't pull them up, I am pretty sure I've seen other ratings showing that Hall is at least as good as Hardy defensively...he has more defensive Win Shares as a shortstop, for whatever that's worth. (I don't know off the top of my head who has more innings at SS and who's better pro-rated for innings...and I'm too lazy to look it up.)

 

And yet it is routinely asserted that Hardy is a better defender. I am not convinced that it's so.

[Weirdos19]

Would you be worried about JJ's defense if you had Weeks and Fielder in you're infield next year?

 

 

IMO, the range factor is a joke. The SS with the most putouts is the best defensive shortstop? Not necessarily.

 

It may make a difference when comparing players on the same team, at the same position. But that's it.

[1992casey]

SoCal,

 

Hall ranks slightly ahead of Hardy at SS in some of the Baseball Prospectus defensive stats (Runs above replacement, runs above average, Rate, Rate2). It's not by enough to matter much; they're within 10 runs (1 win) of each other per 100 games.

 

As far as 2005 fielding pct., I have to wonder if there's a little bit of 'randomness' involved given sample size. Who's to tell if some of the errors Billy made at another position might have occurred at SS given rearranged playing time?

 

I think you make a good point, though. I'm not sure there's a huge defensive difference between the two once all is said and done.

[joepepsi]

My vote for post of the week goes to "And that" on page 2. Great job!

 

Let's play a little game.

 

Let's combine Hall and Hardy's innings, putouts, total chances, attempts, erros and double plays at shortstop. Together they have combined for 1,349 innings at shortstop this year.

 

Hardy has:

played 64% of those innings

committed 59% of the putouts

had 61% of the total chances

60% of the assists

committed 63% of the errors

contributed to 64% of the double plays

 

Basically he's played 2/3rds of the time and contributed 2/3rds of the counting stats, give or take a few percentage points.

 

Do with this what you wish. You might want to argue Hall shows a slight edge. You might argue Hall has played 30% fewer innings at ss than Hardy, therefore they aren't as true a representation of his ability.

 

Me, I think the percentages of his counting stats are within a reasonable range, less than 10% in each case, to his percentage of playing time. Using this sort of comparison there is no clear difference between the two defensively.

 

While Hall has had a breakout season of sorts, surprising everyone with his quality play, I think Hardy has already shown himself the better offensively player. Given they appear about equal defensively, and it's Hardy's first season in the bigs, I'm inclined to peg Hardy as the one who should be given the starting ss job for Milwaukee next year, and the one who has the best shot at an All Star caliber career.

[treego]

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Treego, I don't mean to attack you, but Brian is correct in his assumption. Either you like Bill Hall a lot (which is great), or you don't like Hardy (which is fine too). But it is apparent that you are trying to paint a bad picture of Hardy AND Yost to manipulate facts into making your guy look better, and making Hardy look worse than he is. On the JS boards all season you ripped Hardy's offense and you ripped Yost for playing him. Now that he's hitting, you refuse to give Yost credit for sticking with him through his offensive struggles, and you don't even give Hardy credit for hitting. You go right to defense and range factor. There's nothing wrong with giving credit where credit is due sometimes. There is something wrong, though, with trying to create a stir over a problem that probably doesn't exist. In a different note, Hall has settled in pretty well at third. Why make the stink about it now? Hall is playing pretty much every day, and he has definitely played more than Hardy this season.

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1. If you don't mean to attack me, then why mis-characterize me?

 

2. I like guys who perform well, and I am not crazy about guys that get 'anointed' and don't hold up their end of the deal.

 

3. It is apparent that Yost is ignoring statistics, selectively. I'm asking a legitimate question. Care to answer it?

 

4. I've ripped Hardy for good reason. He's been horrible up until the past month or so. He has been respectable during that period. I don't hate Hardy. I like Hardy as a person. He seems like a great guy. I've said that before in the JSOnline Forum, also, actually. That said, Bill Hall is a great guy, too. He's humble, but has greater speed, power, range and batting average. I guess I don't have to wonder why Hall doesn't get the benefit of the doubt while Hardy does, huh? I bring it up often because it is so dearly mystifying. And I like to see why people defend Hardy to such a degree as they do in the face of these obvious facts. It makes me wonder if that some of us root for the lighter skinned guy because he looks more like us than the other guy, sometime. Mind you, I am not accusing anybody in particular with respect to that because I don't know your heart and your predisposition to racism by any means. It just seems that there is something going on here that defies logic, though.

 

5. I have stated in the JSOnline Forum often. "Come on JJ, prove me wrong!" I want whoever plays to succeed, of course. I'm a Brewer fan more than I'm a Hall fan or a Hardy fan, etc.

[1992casey]

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While Hall has had a breakout season of sorts, surprising everyone with his quality play, I think Hardy has already shown himself the better offensive player. Given they appear about equal defensively, and it's Hardy's first season in the bigs, I'm inclined to peg Hardy as the one who should be given the starting ss job for Milwaukee next year, and the one who has the best shot at an All Star caliber career.

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That's more or less how I feel. I think the three year age difference is huge. Service time can be somewhat of a tie-breaker. But, actually, I think the bottom line is that Milwaukee is fortunate to have both these players.

[nsimps]

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And I like to see why people defend Hardy to such a degree as they do in the face of these obvious facts.

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I think most of the posts in the thread have pointed out that the "obvious facts" you speak of are neither obvious nor facts.

[rluzinski]

And I like to see why people defend Hardy to such a degree as they do in the face of these obvious facts.

 

I see, you don't actually want people to actually discuss the opinions you presented in this thread. We think range factor stinks as a defensive metric. It's very simple. If you want to prove Hardy stinks you'll have to go about it a different way.

 

I see what Brian was talking about with you having a crusade. Now you are just getting mad because we don't blindly agree with you.

[backup catchers]

Geno I must give credit where credit is due. For all your criticism of Yost you have kept an open mind and acknowledged his positive points. As far as Yost not accepting Hardy's lack of defense due to a suspect stat goes why should he say anything to the media about it even if it was true? That is something the manager should do in private with the player not in the media. I haven't even seen Yost bash Weeks for it. Nor should he. A players performance is something we can all see with our own eyes and, as fans, let them know what we think of them. If his managers and coaches start to bash a player publicly for his shortcomings as well that pretty much leaves the player alone with no support from anywhere. How is that supposed to help a player develope?

[brettac1]

We think range factor stinks as a defensive metric.

 

I also think quite a few of us think AVG stinks as an offensive metric. Though it's been more than a month that Hardy has hit well, compare the two since the ASB:

 

Hall (205 AB): .273/.321/.405, 3 HR, 48 K/15 BB

Hardy (153 AB): .301/.361/.490, 6 HR, 18 K/14 BB

[SoCalBrewfan]

SoCal,

 

Hall ranks slightly ahead of Hardy at SS in some of the Baseball Prospectus defensive stats (Runs above replacement, runs above average, Rate, Rate2). It's not by enough to matter much; they're within 10 runs (1 win) of each other per 100 games.

 

Thanks...that's consistent with what I remember having seen, but I'm glad to see independent corroboration. My sense of the statistical analyses I've seen is that, if anything, Hall has a small edge defensively.

 

Incidentally, someone above asserted that Hall had a poor defensive reputation in the past. That's not completely true...he's always made a fair number of errors, but was known for having good range and arm. In the 2002 BA survey of the Brewers minors, they had the following "Best Tools:"

 

Best defensive infielder: Bill Hall

Best Infield arm: JJ Hardy

 

Usually the first category is code for 'range' since many minor league IF make lots of errors...that is despite two years of 40 and 45 errors...in the scouting report Hall's range is described as 'great' and it's said that 'he gets to balls other shortstops don't, but he has to learn when to eat the ball and when to attempt a fabuous double play.' Hall was also judged as having the 'best infield arm' in the 2001 report (Scarborough was best defensive IF).

 

The following year, Hardy got both 'awards' though Hall was still in the minors. Hardy was described in 02 as having 'great arm and range.' But the 03 scouting report says 'he's not exceptionally quick...his keen instincts allow him to get good jumps on balls.' (The 04 has the same phrase 'not exceptionally quick'...recycling is good, Mr. Haudricourt.) Hardy's always been described as having good hands and a strong and accurate arm, part of his reputation for reliability.

[1992casey]

This thread is delaying a potential trip to Happy Hour! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

 

 

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(Hardy's) been horrible up until the past month or so. He has been respectable during that period.

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Offensively, as a SS, J.J.'s been above average on the season, he's been well above average since May 23rd (when he was benched to work in the cage), he's been further above average since the All Star Break, and he's been even more above average in the last month.

 

 

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It is apparent that Yost is ignoring statistics, selectively. I'm asking a legitimate question. Care to answer it?

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What Ned says doesn't necessarily reflect what he does.

 

Yes, we've gotten peeved on this forum when Ned's said stuff that seems to indicate that he disregards stats.

 

But he certainly seems to be using stats despite those complaints. It sure as heck takes statistical analysis for Rich Dauer and Davey Nelson to align the fielders. And just this week, in a snippet during a televised game, Ned told us how Mike Maddux spends 'hours' on the computer devising each starting pitcher's individual game plan. He made it a point to say that it isn't just a general plan; he said it's tailored to both the pitcher and the opposing batters.

 

I'd have liked a more technical comment from Ned explaining why Range Factor is a poor stat, but I'm not going to fault him for not doing that.

[Brian the Automator]

You've been on the anti-Yost & Hardy crusade all year, and no you've found something that represents the perfect storm of cherry-picking for you, a quote BY yost ABOUT hardy.

 

For those of you who've seen PCU, I think this quote sums it up perfectly:

 

"Caine and Hackman in the same movie together! This is my thesis, man! This is my closing argument!"

[treego]

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I think most of the posts in the thread have pointed out that the "obvious facts" you speak of are neither obvious nor facts.

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Must have missed those posts that show Hardy's batting average being better, Hardy's speed/stolen bases being better, Hardy's defensive range being better, Hardy's power/slugging average being better, Hardy's fielding percentage being better, etc.

 

It seems Hall has Hardy beat in all these categories. What's left ... other than "Hmmm.... I just like Hardy better ... he's a nice kid."

[1992casey]

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If his managers and coaches start to bash a player publicly for his shortcomings as well that pretty much leaves the player alone with no support from anywhere. How is that supposed to help a player develop?

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There's only one player where I recall Ned being especially candid, and that's Alex Sanchez. Ned was still awfully diplomatic about his comments, though.

 

I agree with you: bashing a player publicly is generally going to be counterproductive.

[treego]

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You've been on the anti-Yost & Hardy crusade all year, and no you've found something that represents the perfect storm of cherry-picking for you, a quote BY yost ABOUT hardy.

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I don't deny that I have been crticial of Yost playing what I consider a subpar player in comparison to Hall or Branyan, certainly.

 

Do you have anything to add besides citing that I have been questioning Yost's anointing of Hardy as starting SS in spite of batting average, slugging average, defensive range, speed considerations which all point to Hall as the just-earned starter?

[SoCalBrewfan]

Though it's been more than a month that Hardy has hit well, compare the two since the ASB:

 

Hall (205 AB): .273/.321/.405, 3 HR, 48 K/15 BB

Hardy (153 AB): .301/.361/.490, 6 HR, 18 K/14 BB

 

I have to say that looks like you're choosing an arbitrary endpoint just because it supports your conclusion. While I think it's fair to say that Hardy is a better hitter going forward than his first 200 plate appearances this year would suggest, it's also reasonable to be cautious about his abilities and not assume that he's as good as his last 180. Similarly, Hall hasn't looked as good as he did in his best two months, but seems to have taken a step forward from what we was last year.

[litesrn]

I'm a newbie and wouldn't know the cliques here from Adam, but it's pretty obvious when someone has an axe to grind! Didn't this thread start out being about Hardy's D and a shot against Yost in the process, and didn't others here pretty much refute the original assertions?

[backup catchers]

He's been horrible up until the past month or so. He has been respectable during that period.

 

Actually he's been good since the all star break. But if you want to look at his bad performance during the first half you should also look at the subpar performance of Bill Hall for the past couple years. Yet Yost stuck with Hall and gave him chance after chance to be a major contributer to this team. JJ Hardy wouldn't have been annointed the starting shortstop this year if Hall would have done something last year.

 

I like guys who perform well, and I am not crazy about guys that get 'anointed' and don't hold up their end of the deal.

 

His end of the deal was to play a good shortstop and to improve on offense as the year went on. That was stated by both Yost and Melvin early on. In my mind Hardy has done just that so he has held up his end of the deal. It seem to me you want to annoint Hall even to the point of disregarding his past two years of futility.

[danzig6767]

Do you honestly think GM's in baseball base their decisions on who they think are good/bad defensive players by what their ZR or RF is?

 

People in charge of baseball operations know how crude both of those stats are.I highly doubt Melvin sat there watching Podsednik butcher flyballs and then said my eyes are tricking me,he really is a good defender since his ZR says he is.

 

The Brewers arent going to make decisions on the future of Hardy based on a stat that at best is shaky in value.