Hardy vs. Hall

[treego]

www.jsonline.com/sports/b...357684.asp

 

In an article about "chic" baseball statistics in USA Today, rookie J.J. Hardy was ranked as having the least range among major-league shortstops, using a formula taking into account putouts, assists and innings played. "I don't care what formula they used," manager Ned Yost said. "I'll take J.J. at shortstop any day. That's not very valid to me."

 

OK, Ned ... keep sticking your head in the sand. Don't let Dauer or Hall see that stat, though. Yost may have to be a little more thoughtful and persuasive if they get wind of this.

 

EDIT: Removed emoticon...

[nsimps]

How is range a function of putouts, assists and innings played?

[rickh150]

Hardy is not quick. He has great hands and an acurate arm, sure, but I can believe that his range is the worst because of his lack of quickness and lateral agility.

[joepepsi]

Range factor, zone rating, fielding percentage are problematic stats. None give a true picture of defensive performance. Generally speaking I think there are plenty of stats that give a truer picture of performance than obseervation. But when it comes to defense I think you gotta see the guy play a lot games to really judge his performance.

 

At worst Hardy is a very good young ss.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Quote:

---

OK, Ned ... keep sticking your head in the sand. Don't let Dauer or Hall see that stat, though. Yost may have to be a little more thoughtful and persuasive if they get wind of this.

---

 

In my opinion, this stat is completely worthless, as is another baseless bashing of Ned Yost. J.J. Hardy is a fine defensive shortstop. He's not Rafael Furcal, but I would say that his range is very comparible to Cal Ripken Jr. and Robin Yount, two Hall-of-Fame shortstops.

 

I would take Hardy's consistency over Hall's erratic athleticism anyday at SS. I completely agree with Yost here. Hardy is a future star in the league.

[AJOHNSON104]

Hardy reminds me a lot of when Loretta played short. They both look solid, make plays, and show adequate range. I think Hardy can be better than Loretta as he gets more confidence and develops more chemistry with Weeks and whoever plays 3rd. There have been a few plays this year (like Wednesday night when Weeks collided with him) where there was tenativeness.

I'll still take his d-fense over a guy like Jose Valentin, who had great range but was unpredictable and prone to make really bad plays.

[treego]

Hall has "erratic athleticism?" Huh? Hall's fielding percentage at SS this season is better than Hardy's. How does that translate to "erratic athleticism?"

 

That is a ridiculous assessment, in my opinion. Bash Hall without good reason because Hardy's range rating is the worst in the league? You will have to do better than that.

 

Yost should be more circumspect with respect to these sort of statistics; he sounds like an emotionally charged responder here --- something I would expect of uninformed observers from a distance.

[Brian the Automator]

TreeGo, it's fine that you started the topic, but if all you do over here is rail on the same people you rail on at the JSOnline board, it's not a good idea.

 

Back to the topic, when we've seen JJ range from the left side of the diamond to the middle of the right side of the diamond to snag a grounder and make a snap throw to nail a runner, I have a hard time believing JJ's got the worst range of any starting SS.

 

Don't get me wrong, Hall's the more athletic guy, but to me, the amount of range sacrificed for the dependability of Hardy is well worth it. Defense is one of the rare areas where I trust vision over stats. Defensive stats are just too flaky.

[treego]

Quote:

---

TreeGo, it's fine that you started the topic, but if all you do over here is rail on the same people you rail on at the JSOnline board, it's not a good idea.

---

 

Why is it not a good idea?

 

This is something I am interested in hearing others' observations on. I think Ned's comments and insistence on ignoring important data is reflective of a disturbing managerial style.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Yost should be more circumspect with respect to these sort of statistics; he sounds like an emotionally charged responder here --- something I would expect of uninformed observers from a distance. ]

 

He's defending his player. It's a function of being a manager.

 

He's not going to say "well, if you look at his OPS which has trended upward throughout the year and his ceiling, I think his plusses outweight his minuses".

 

Yost's not a guy who trashes his players to the media, in the mold of Bobby Cox. I don't see anything wrong with that.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Why is it not a good idea? ]

 

It's a good idea to talk about all things Brewers. It's not a good thing when your posts serve to only bash Yost and Hardy. I'm not saying you're going to do that here, but i'm just throwing up that warning flare early.

[treego]

Quote:

---

Hall's the more athletic guy, but to me, the amount of range sacrificed for the dependability of Hardy is well worth it.

---

 

Hall has a higher fielding percentage than does Hardy at SS. Who is really dependable? I'd say that Hall is more dependable. Are we buying into this "reputation" thing with Hardy? "He must be a terrfic fielder that is superior to anything else we have because we know that is why he is primarily in the MLB" --- so the reasoning goes, anyway.

[DHonks]

Square is stating simple observation, and it's correct. Hardy glides to balls up the middle, in the hole, etc etc, making nearly every play. His soft hands turn bad hops into routine outs. He's almost always in the right place, his throws are almost always perfect, and he helps Rickie Weeks a great deal because whenever Rickie fields the ball near the bag with a runner on 1st, he flips the ball to JJ, not going to first like most 2nd basemen do.

 

Also, two other factors. Our staff has to be among the most extreme flyball pitching staffs in the league. In theory, shouldn't this mean that Hall, Hardy, Weeks, Overbay, etc all have very poor range?

The second is that we get a lot of strikeouts, meaning that's outs without our fielders touching the ball. Rluzinski, any stats to support my theories?

[treego]

Quote:

---

It's a good idea to talk about all things Brewers. It's not a good thing when your posts serve to only bash Yost and Hardy.

---

 

What should it matter what the overall content of my posts will be if it does, in fact, pertain to the Brewers? If my posts/questions/assertions are baseless, will they not be exposed?

 

Yost is the Milwaukee Brewers, for crying out loud. Hardy is the anointed starting SS for the team. Is not appropriate criticism allowed here? Or is this just a rah-rah forum that does not appreciate scrutiny of certain individuals who wear the Brewer uniform.

 

Do you give such flares and warnings to all new members of this forum --- or just to those who have the inclination to criticize Yost and/or Hardy when it is due?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

I like JJ Hardy.

 

He's young, homegrown, cheap, has been hitting lights out since the All Star break and he doesn't seem to be cocky or anything.

 

That said, maybe he really DOESN'T have good range as a major league shortstop...YET. Maybe he'll grow into the role next year, improve on his footwork, make better breaks on balls up the middle or in the hole...whatever.

 

Why is it, that when a stat is unflattering for a Brewer player, that it's dismissed out of hand, even by Ned?

 

Instead, why not take a longer look at this stat, ask how the various factors are computed and weighed, and perhaps work on improving JJ's range? I'm sure even JJ wouldn't have a problem with something specific to improve on.

 

And if you're going to come up with a formula, and you DON'T factor in putouts, assists and innings played, then what DO you factor in? I think this may be valid, and could serve as a constructive thing to work on, which could turn into a positive...

[DHonks]

I looked up some numbers, and the Crew is 3rd in the NL in strikeouts as a pitching staff. Throw in that they have the most flyball oriented staff, and that doesn't aid the attempts for infielders. Our ratio is 0.99, only slightly ahead of the Nationals at 0.98 and far behind #14 (Giants) at 1.10 GO:FO

[joepepsi]

Quote:

---

Why is it, that when a stat is unflattering for a Brewer player, that it's dismissed out of hand, even by Ned?

---

 

Um, because stats like range factor are suspect out of the gate. It is dependent on how many balls are actually hit to the particular fielder. Defensive stats are too subjective, and too dependent on factors beyond the defender's control.

[treego]

Quote:

---

Um, because stats like range factor are suspect out of the gate. It is dependent on how many balls are actually hit to the particular fielder.

---

 

So, are you suggesting that the offense of other teams hit more balls at Hall than Hardy?

[brettac1]

Guys that play SS on teams that feature more GB pitchers are going to have a higher RF. Hardy has played behind FB pitchers like Ohka, Capuano, Sheets, etc. and hasn't had as many chances because of this.

[1992casey]

Why Range Factor (putouts plus assists per 9 innings) is a bad stat:

• It's affected by the players around a given fielder.
• It's affected by pitchers' groundball/flyball tendencies.
• Heck, it's even affected by pitchers' strikeout rates.

To summarize, balls have to be hit to a fielder in the first place. If balls aren't hit toward him, he's penalized.

[DHonks]

Looking at the bunk stat Range Factor (it has some merits, I would presume), Hall ranks around 15th in the league, given that you need to eliminate the outliers. Hardy lower

 

At 2b, Spivey, Weeks, and Hall are all comparable, all rated towards the bottom.

 

At 3b, our guys are rated very poorly. In order, they fall Helms, Hall, Branyan, Cirillo. Yet anyone who watches games knows their range is more likely in the order of Hall, Cirillo, Branyan, Helms.

 

So I caution using defensive metrics to critique our players, because all teams do not play behind the same pitchers

[treego]

Quote:

---

Guys that play SS on teams that feature more GB pitchers are going to have a higher RF. Hardy has played behind FB pitchers like Ohka, Capuano, Sheets, etc. and hasn't had as many chances because of this.

---

 

Hall plays behind the same pitchers that Hardy does, though, doesn't he?

[et bbal]

I like JJ and think he is going to be around for a while, but I do have concerns about his range. Not based on fielding stats or observation, but stolen bases. While realizing that there is a difference between quickness and speed (and base stealing and fielding range for that matter), it does have me a bit concerned that our ss has no stolen bases this year. Some of this may be due to hitting in the 8 hole. If there are 2 outs you don't want to get thrown out and then lead off the next inning with the pitcher, and if there are less than 2 outs the pitchers probably trying to bunt. Still it seems like a ss should be quick enough to get a sb or 2, and if he isn't wouldn't that likely indicate below average range?

[treego]

Quote:

---

Looking at the bunk stat Range Factor (it has some merits, I would presume), Hall ranks around 15th in the league, given that you need to eliminate the outliers. Hardy lower At 2b, Spivey, Weeks, and Hall are all comparable, all rated towards the bottom. At 3b, our guys are rated very poorly. In order, they fall Helms, Hall, Branyan, Cirillo. Yet anyone who watches games knows their range is more likely in the order of Hall, Cirillo, Branyan, Helms. So I caution using defensive metrics to critique our players, because all teams do not play behind the same pitchers

---

 

Now, this does make some sense. The best response I've seen so far that defends Hardy to some extent. Hall and Hardy do play behind the same pitchers, nevertheless. Your analysis of the 3B position breakdown, in particular, does throw some water on this 'range rating' thing, though. Thanks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

[treego]

Quote:

---

While realizing that there is a difference between quickness and speed (and base stealing and fielding range for that matter), it does have me a bit concerned that our ss has no stolen bases this year.

---

 

I think the very same thing. Hardy's lack of quickness on the basepaths is a concern for me, also. Hall is leading the team in stolen bases, by contrast --- last I checked he was leading the team in that category, anyway. And I always think Hall looks kinda' "heavy." If he lost a few pounds, he would be even quicker, I bet.