Post-Season Win Shares

[Jimbo]

With the recent broadcasts of Brewers Post-Season Classics, I was curious to go back and calculate each player's win shares from each of the six teams. Then I came across this http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/blog/?p=438. What the author did was extend the individual game win share concept to Series win probability and a World Championship win probability. So out of curiosity I calculated the most pivotal plays in post season history and listed below. I did a single series because the tension of advancing or the end of the season. I did the WC odds so that everything is in perspective. What happens in the LCS is half as important as the WS. The WC is three rounds removed from the WS, so it is reduced by a factor of eight. We're familiar with many plays (Cooper's hit, Soto's hit) but I find interesting the magnitude of certain plays stacking up with one another. I know Puig's homer in Game 7 sucked, but hadn't realized it was the third worst play in PS history and so on. Couldn't quite get this to format they way I liked. Review, enjoy and comment.

 

The Brewers have six post-season appearances, played in nine series.

 

Top Ten important plays to help win a series, per series win probability:

1. 1982-ALCS-G5 Cooper's single +0.36 (from 44% to 80%)

2. 2011-NLDS-G5 Morgan's single +0.28

3. 2011-NLDS-G5 Betancourt's single +0.16

4. 2011-NLDS-G5 Robert's groundout +0.16

5. 1982-WSer-G7 Molitor's single +0.16

6. 2011-NLDS-G5 Goldschmidt's strikeout+0.16

7. 2019-NLWC-G1 Grandal's home run +0.14

8. 1982-WSer-G7 Oglivie's home run +0.14

9. 1982-ALCS-G5 Oglivie's home run +0.14

10.2018-NLDS-G1 Moustakis's single +0.13

 

Top Ten important plays to help win a World Championship, per series win probability:

1. 1982-ALCS-G5 Cooper's single +0.182

2. 1982-WSer-G7 Molitor's single +0.157

3. 1982-WSer-G7 Oglivie's home run +0.138

4. 1982-WSer-G7 Gantner's double +0.108

5. 1982-WSer-G4 Thomas's single +0.094

6. 1982-WSer-G4 Cooper's single +0.082

7. 1982-WSer-G4 Yount's single +0.077

8. 1982-WSer-G7 Smith's fly out +0.069

9. 2011-NLDS-G5 Morgan's single +0.069

10.1982-WSer-G7 Yount's single +0.065

 

Top Ten important plays (daggers) to help lose a series, per series win probability:

1. 2019-NLWC-G1 Soto's single/E9 -0.58

2. 1982-WSer-G7 Hernandez's single -0.27

3. 2018-NLCS-G7 Puig's home run -0.25

4. 1981-ALDS-G5 Jackson's home run -0.25

5. 2011-NLDS-D5 Parra's double -0.19

6. 2011-NLDS-G5 Bloomquist's single -0.18

7. 2018-NLCS-G7 Bellinger's home run -0.18

8. 2011-NLCS-G5 Burrough's single -0.16

9. 1982-ALCS-G5 Yount's GIDP -0.15

 

Top Ten important plays to help lose a World Championship, per series win probability:

1. 1982-WSer-G7 Hernandez's single -0.270

2. 1982-WSer-G7 Lonnie Smith's double -0.146

3. 2018-NLCS-G7 Puig's home run -0.127

4. 1982-WSer-G2 Porter's double -0.105

5. 1982-WSer-G3 McGee's home run -0.099

6. 1982-WSer-G7 Hendrick's single -0.095

7. 1982-WSer-G7 Herr's single -0.095

8. 2018-NLCS-G7 Bellinger's home run -0.088

9. 1982-WSer-G7 Lonnie Smith's single -0.078

10.1982-ALCS-G5 Yount's GIDP -0.075

11.2019-NLWC-G1 Soto's single/E9 -0.073