2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion

[igor67]

Great to see folks arguing about sports.

 

Thought number 2- Gary Anderson owes the state of Wisconsin so this better work.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thought this was interesting. Bakhtiari would know Rodgers better than any of the draftniks or commentators. If he says this is going to light a fire under him, I'm inclined to believe him.

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/draft-a-thon/0ap3000001110933/David-Bakhtiari-Look-out-Aaron-is-about-to-be-on-fire

[bjkrautk]

Great to see folks arguing about sports.

 

Thought number 2- Gary Anderson owes the state of Wisconsin so this better work.

 

It really is amazing how many articles I've seen mention that Love was hindered by a head coach change as well as losing 9 offensive starters between his junior & senior year...

 

...without naming the head coach as the guy who quit on the Badgers to go to Oregon State.

[homer]

All things considered I thought the broadcast was pretty decent last night. I would have preferred the fans behind Goodell to be live but I can see why they didn't do that. Better to just not have them at all, IMO.

[LouisEly]

All things considered I thought the broadcast was pretty decent last night. I would have preferred the fans behind Goodell to be live but I can see why they didn't do that. Better to just not have them at all, IMO.

As reinforced by the children of the team's general managers last night, people jump at the opportunity to be on television in any way. To give the impression that they could be on TV if they engage with the platforms increases engagement with the platforms.

[homer]

Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft averages 15.6 million viewers across all networks, up 37% from last year, and more than 3 million more than previous event high (2014)

[Oxy]

Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft averages 15.6 million viewers across all networks, up 37% from last year, and more than 3 million more than previous event high (2014)

 

Last night was the first time I've ever watched the draft. Usually I kind of half follow it as it's going on, checking in every half hour or so.

[CheezWizHed]

Great to see folks arguing about sports.

 

Thought number 2- Gary Anderson owes the state of Wisconsin so this better work.

 

It really is amazing how many articles I've seen mention that Love was hindered by a head coach change as well as losing 9 offensive starters between his junior & senior year...

 

...without naming the head coach as the guy who quit on the Badgers to go to Oregon State.

 

Doh! I saw igor67's comment on Gary Anderson and wondered why the long-tenured NFL kicker owed us anything...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Great to see folks arguing about sports.

 

Thought number 2- Gary Anderson owes the state of Wisconsin so this better work.

 

It really is amazing how many articles I've seen mention that Love was hindered by a head coach change as well as losing 9 offensive starters between his junior & senior year...

 

...without naming the head coach as the guy who quit on the Badgers to go to Oregon State.

 

Doh! I saw igor67's comment on Gary Anderson and wondered why the long-tenured NFL kicker owed us anything...

 

Anderson missing that chip shot in '98, costing the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl, was thanks enough

[reillymcshane]

Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft averages 15.6 million viewers across all networks, up 37% from last year, and more than 3 million more than previous event high (2014)

 

Last night was the first time I've ever watched the draft. Usually I kind of half follow it as it's going on, checking in every half hour or so.

I remember watching the first NFL draft back in 1980. I was a teenager, and we had the day off from school. I can't remember why - it was too late for Easter break, but Tuesday - the day of the draft - was sometimes an 'in-service day' or whatever they were called - and we'd be off from school. I remember my brother and I putting it on and watching it while we did other stuff. I literally can't remember much about it.

 

Otherwise, in the late 80s, my friend and I turned the draft into a drinking fest. We had a beautiful day one year (like shorts and a t-shirt day - rare for April), and my friend said it was time for summer - and proceeded to make a giant pitcher of vodka and lemonade. We then wrote out our predictions and sat there and drank and chatted and watched the draft (usually the first day was all). It became our schtick for about five years - vodka and lemonades on draft day - even if the weather stunk.

 

Now, I don't watch anything. I just follow it while I do other work. Last night I was editing some audio for work. I'd work for a while - then go check up on the draft. Then back to work and so forth.

[JosephC]

I remember watching the draft in it's entirety when it was a Saturday/Sunday thing. While I still care about the draft and follow it, I really don't watch any of it anymore. Last night I watched "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood." Pretty disappointed as I felt it was a subpar effort for Tarantino, but the end saved it. How can anyone resist a pit bull named Brandy? Nonetheless, I'm sure it was much more entertaining than watching Roger Goodell.

[FVBrewerFan]

I remember watching the draft in it's entirety when it was a Saturday/Sunday thing. While I still care about the draft and follow it, I really don't watch any of it anymore. Last night I watched "Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood." Pretty disappointed as I felt it was a subpar effort for Tarantino, but the end saved it. How can anyone resist a pit bull named Brandy? Nonetheless, I'm sure it was much more entertaining than watching Roger Goodell.

 

Yes, Goodell won't be hosting a late night talk show any time soon. Awkward. I stopped watching most of it when they changed to the 8 day format or whatever it is now. Sat/Sun was great, always used that as a reason to get out of yard work.

[LouisEly]

Yeah, in it's current format, if you're a fan of a team that is drafting at the end of the round, do you even watch it? Especially if you are on the east coast - is your team even going to draft or trade out? When it started at 12 Eastern on Saturdays, you could wait two hours then start watching. Or make it a day drinking event. Can't do that on a Thursday night.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So about all that poo-pooing even the suggestion that the Packers could trade Aaron Rodgers as soon as next offseason...

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/Article/Why-an-Aaron-Rodgers-trade-could-come-sooner-than-you-think-147055106/

 

However, by trading Rodgers before the third league day in 2021, the Packers actually would open a window for Love to play under a really cheap contract and for Rodgers’ contract to be completely off the books. Let me explain. If the Packers were to trade Rodgers prior to the third day of the new league year in 2021, they would immediately absorb a $31,556,000 cap hit. That is a massive cap hit to swallow. However, in doing so, the Packers would actually save $4,796,000.00 in 2021 by making the move.

 

Meanwhile, Jordan Love is supposed to count around $3,000,000 towards the salary cap in 2021, so the Packers would have gone from Rodgers to Love, while actually saving $1-2 million in salary cap. That in and of itself is not a reason to make this trade. That savings is barely worth mentioning.

 

However, in taking all of the dead cap up front in 2021, the Packers would not pay anything to Aaron Rodgers in 2022 or 2023. This would open up two years of Jordan Love making between $3-$4 million per season and not paying Aaron Rodgers a dime. It would also open up a rather inexpensive 5th year option for Jordan Love, at least compared to most starting quarterbacks.

 

That scenario would open up a massive cap savings in 2022, 2023, and 2024 that would allow the Packers to stack a team around Jordan Love when he’s ultra-inexpensive, and it could give them the flexibility to easily re-sign all five of their major free agents next offseason, including David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Kevin King, and Corey Linsley. (If they wanted to).

 

The second reason why this would make so much sense, is because in 2021, Aaron Rodgers would almost surely still have a LOT of trade value. In fact, it can be easily argued that the year in which he’d have the most trade value, would be 2021.

 

Like I said, the drafting of Love, as long as he is anything other than a complete bust, makes a trade of Aaron Rodgers a very realistic possibility in the next 1-2 year window.

 

Teams just aren't winning Super Bowls with QBs taking up massive percentages of their cap. Trading Rodgers as early as 1 year into Jordan Love's contract, opens up a 3 year window of massive cap space opened from 2022-2024. It barely opens cap room in 2021 but it doesn't cost them space either. No one can guarantee that Love will pan out but the Packers didn't trade up to get him with the idea he'd bomb. They drafted him in anticipation that he will be a franchise QB. And if they're right, they're likely hoping he might be ready after just one year learning behind Rodgers. Because if Love can be ready to play in 2021, that will maximize the benefit of transitioning from Rodgers to Love in every possible way - more cheap productive years of Love, more mega cap room earlier, and more return for Rodgers in a trade. It doesn't mean the Packers need Love to be ready in 2021, it's just an ideal. If he needs until 2022 to be ready, it just delays the cap benefits by one year and likely lessens the return for Rodgers.

 

And no I never said it was the only potential outcome. So let's not ignore that again shall we. Yes Love could bust. Yes Rodgers could have a resurgence that leads to Love being the one traded. But what that article laid out is the absolute ideal scenario. And clearly what the Packers want is that ideal scenario. They get the best return from a Rodgers trade, and they'd get a cheap, franchise QB which allows them to spend elsewhere on the roster as soon as 2022 in a window that runs through 2024.

[pacopete4]

I think a lot of what happens in the future for Rodgers will be how he plays this season. Will he take a step forward within the framework of the offense that has been put in place or not will go a long way in deciding what they end up doing with him. Probably as much as how Love develops.

[adambr2]

So about all that poo-pooing even the suggestion that the Packers could trade Aaron Rodgers as soon as next offseason...

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/Article/Why-an-Aaron-Rodgers-trade-could-come-sooner-than-you-think-147055106/

 

However, by trading Rodgers before the third league day in 2021, the Packers actually would open a window for Love to play under a really cheap contract and for Rodgers’ contract to be completely off the books. Let me explain. If the Packers were to trade Rodgers prior to the third day of the new league year in 2021, they would immediately absorb a $31,556,000 cap hit. That is a massive cap hit to swallow. However, in doing so, the Packers would actually save $4,796,000.00 in 2021 by making the move.

 

Meanwhile, Jordan Love is supposed to count around $3,000,000 towards the salary cap in 2021, so the Packers would have gone from Rodgers to Love, while actually saving $1-2 million in salary cap. That in and of itself is not a reason to make this trade. That savings is barely worth mentioning.

 

However, in taking all of the dead cap up front in 2021, the Packers would not pay anything to Aaron Rodgers in 2022 or 2023. This would open up two years of Jordan Love making between $3-$4 million per season and not paying Aaron Rodgers a dime. It would also open up a rather inexpensive 5th year option for Jordan Love, at least compared to most starting quarterbacks.

 

That scenario would open up a massive cap savings in 2022, 2023, and 2024 that would allow the Packers to stack a team around Jordan Love when he’s ultra-inexpensive, and it could give them the flexibility to easily re-sign all five of their major free agents next offseason, including David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Kevin King, and Corey Linsley. (If they wanted to).

 

The second reason why this would make so much sense, is because in 2021, Aaron Rodgers would almost surely still have a LOT of trade value. In fact, it can be easily argued that the year in which he’d have the most trade value, would be 2021.

 

Like I said, the drafting of Love, as long as he is anything other than a complete bust, makes a trade of Aaron Rodgers a very realistic possibility in the next 1-2 year window.

 

Teams just aren't winning Super Bowls with QBs taking up massive percentages of their cap. Trading Rodgers as early as 1 year into Jordan Love's contract, opens up a 3 year window of massive cap space opened from 2022-2024. It barely opens cap room in 2021 but it doesn't cost them space either. No one can guarantee that Love will pan out but the Packers didn't trade up to get him with the idea he'd bomb. They drafted him in anticipation that he will be a franchise QB. And if they're right, they're likely hoping he might be ready after just one year learning behind Rodgers. Because if Love can be ready to play in 2021, that will maximize the benefit of transitioning from Rodgers to Love in every possible way - more cheap productive years of Love, more mega cap room earlier, and more return for Rodgers in a trade. It doesn't mean the Packers need Love to be ready in 2021, it's just an ideal. If he needs until 2022 to be ready, it just delays the cap benefits by one year and likely lessens the return for Rodgers.

 

And no I never said it was the only potential outcome. So let's not ignore that again shall we. Yes Love could bust. Yes Rodgers could have a resurgence that leads to Love being the one traded. But what that article laid out is the absolute ideal scenario. And clearly what the Packers want is that ideal scenario. They get the best return from a Rodgers trade, and they'd get a cheap, franchise QB which allows them to spend elsewhere on the roster as soon as 2022 in a window that runs through 2024.

 

I 100% agree with this concept. I don't understand the fretting about taking a huge dead cap hit to trade a guy. "We can't trade Rodgers, it would be a $32M dead cap hit!"

 

Ok? Yeah, it would be, yeah it sucks, but if you can absorb it in a single season and move on from it, it's not a bad way to go. Think about it. If Love is starting in his 2nd season, is that really going to be a championship season anyway? Most likely not. So you absorb it all in one season, it's kind of a transition season anyway, and moving forward you have a massive amount of cap freed up, plus whatever massive return you've gotten from trading Rodgers. Love gets the year of experience under his belt and if he's your guy, he's likely in a much better position heading into his 3rd year, 2nd starting. He's still got 2 years of very cheap control plus the option year.

 

Love riding the pine until his 4th or 5th season is not ideal at all. Part of the appeal of taking a QB in the first is the massive rookie contract savings, and you lose almost all of that by having him sit through his entire rookie deal, and you also have very little data to go off to decide whether or not to commit to him long-term. While it worked out great for transitioning from Favre to Rodgers, it's just not a very common recipe for success these days. Modern franchises have tremendous success from rookie contract QB contributions that allow them to invest in the rest of their team. Think Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, etc.

 

The other part of absorbing all of Rodgers' bonus is that the trading team actually gets him at a tremendous discount, making his trade value even stronger.

 

Not saying that he will be traded after the 2020 season, my money would still be after 2021. But the logic behind it is strong. If Love just holds a clipboard behind Rodgers for 4 seasons, it's probably a wasted pick.

[LouisEly]

Teams just aren't winning Super Bowls with QBs taking up massive percentages of their cap.

San Francisco was about ~8 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl last year with Garoppolo ($26.6M cap hit) taking up 12.87% of their cap.

 

In 2016 Tom Brady signed a contract that was worth an average of over $20M/year when the salary cap was $155M. I don't have the info of exactly what the cap hit was each year, but that average salary was over 13% of their cap. That's not much different than a $30M cap hit on a $200M cap. In 2015, Manning was taking up about 12% of the Bronco's cap.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Teams just aren't winning Super Bowls with QBs taking up massive percentages of their cap.

San Francisco was about ~8 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl last year with Garoppolo ($26.6M cap hit) taking up 12.87% of their cap.

 

In 2016 Tom Brady signed a contract that was worth an average of over $20M/year when the salary cap was $155M. I don't have the info of exactly what the cap hit was each year, but that average salary was over 13% of their cap. That's not much different than a $30M cap hit on a $200M cap. In 2015, Manning was taking up about 12% of the Bronco's cap.

 

Last year Garoppolo's cap hit represented just 8.65% of SF's cap and Maholmes took up just 2.36% of KC's cap...

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2019/quarterback/

 

In the salary cap era, the highest percentage paid to the Super Bowl winning QB came in the first year of the cap, 1994, when Steve Young accounted for 13.1% of the 49ers cap...

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/nfl-quarterback-salaries-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-free-agency

 

The record for the highest cap hit percentage remains Steve Young’s 13.1% in that first season, when teams were still getting used to building rosters under a budget. Only four quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl while accounting for at least 11% of their team’s cap room: Young, Peyton Manning (twice), Tom Brady and Eli Manning.

 

The article is 2 years old so here are the cap percentages spent on QBs for the past 2 Super Bowl winners...

 

2018 - NE - Brady - 12.4%

2019 - KC - Mahomes - 2.36%

 

Here's what percentage of the cap Aaron Rodgers will eat up in the coming seasons...

 

2020 - 11.28%

2021 - 17.77%

2022 - 16.11%

 

Rodgers is under the historic max threshold of Super Bowl winning QBs for 2020 and there's nothing that can be done about 2021's ugly percentage. But if they trade him after this coming season that ugly number in 2022 and the also ugly 2023 number goes away.

 

There's pretty compelling evidence that you're chances of winning a Super Bowl are much better if you're allocating under 10% of your cap to your QB. The average cap percentage by Super Bowl winning QBs is around 7%. It allows you to field a better overall roster. And it definitely shows that the percentage of the cap that Rodgers will consume from 2021 through 2023, will make it very hard for the Packers to put together a deep roster. That goes away and opens a window of low QB cap dollars from 2022-2024 if Love pans out and allows Rodgers to be moved after this coming 2020 season.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

Teams just aren't winning Super Bowls with QBs taking up massive percentages of their cap. Trading Rodgers as early as 1 year into Jordan Love's contract, opens up a 3 year window of massive cap space opened from 2022-2024. It barely opens cap room in 2021 but it doesn't cost them space either.

 

Think about it. If Love is starting in his 2nd season, is that really going to be a championship season anyway? Most likely not. So you absorb it all in one season, it's kind of a transition season anyway, and moving forward you have a massive amount of cap freed up, plus whatever massive return you've gotten from trading Rodgers.

 

And going by historic numbers, the Packers would be a severe, record shattering anomaly winning the Super Bowl in 2021 with Rodgers still in Green Bay and taking up an absurd 17.77% of the cap.

 

2021 is going to be a challenge building a deep roster no matter what. But 2022-2024 looks really, really good if Love is ready to go after one year riding the pine and Rodgers gets moved after this season. It's also when they'd likely get the most in return for him via trade.

[monkeyman343434]

Teams just aren't winning Super Bowls with QBs taking up massive percentages of their cap.

San Francisco was about ~8 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl last year with Garoppolo ($26.6M cap hit) taking up 12.87% of their cap.

 

In 2016 Tom Brady signed a contract that was worth an average of over $20M/year when the salary cap was $155M. I don't have the info of exactly what the cap hit was each year, but that average salary was over 13% of their cap. That's not much different than a $30M cap hit on a $200M cap. In 2015, Manning was taking up about 12% of the Bronco's cap.

 

Last year Garoppolo's cap hit represented just 8.65% of SF's cap and Maholmes took up just 2.36% of KC's cap...

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2019/quarterback/

 

In the salary cap era, the highest percentage paid to the Super Bowl winning QB came in the first year of the cap, 1994, when Steve Young accounted for 13.1% of the 49ers cap...

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/nfl-quarterback-salaries-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-free-agency

 

The record for the highest cap hit percentage remains Steve Young’s 13.1% in that first season, when teams were still getting used to building rosters under a budget. Only four quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl while accounting for at least 11% of their team’s cap room: Young, Peyton Manning (twice), Tom Brady and Eli Manning.

 

The article is 2 years old so here are the cap percentages spent on QBs for the past 2 Super Bowl winners...

 

2018 - NE - Brady - 12.4%

2019 - KC - Mahomes - 2.36%

 

Here's what percentage of the cap Aaron Rodgers will eat up in the coming seasons...

 

2020 - 11.28%

2021 - 17.77%

2022 - 16.11%

 

Rodgers is under the historic max threshold of Super Bowl winning QBs for 2020 and there's nothing that can be done about 2021's ugly percentage. But if they trade him after this coming season that ugly number in 2022 and the also ugly 2023 number goes away.

 

There's pretty compelling evidence that you're chances of winning a Super Bowl are much better if you're allocating under 10% of your cap to your QB. The average cap percentage by Super Bowl winning QBs is around 7%. It allows you to field a better overall roster. And it definitely shows that the percentage of the cap that Rodgers will consume from 2021 through 2023, will make it very hard for the Packers to put together a deep roster. That goes away and opens a window of low QB cap dollars from 2022-2024 if Love pans out and allows Rodgers to be moved after this coming 2020 season.

 

My question is, if Joe-Schmoe on a baseball message board comes up with this, why would one of 31 NFL GMs trade for Rodgers then?

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

My question is, if Joe-Schmoe on a baseball message board comes up with this, why would one of 31 NFL GMs trade for Rodgers then?

 

That's easy - look no further than what Tampa Bay is paying 43 year old Tom Brady. Then go one step further and look at what it did for their ticket and merchandise sales.

 

Also, the cap hit for the team acquiring Rodgers won't be near as high a percentage.

[CheezWizHed]

If traded, Rodger's cap hit would be $22M, $25.5M, and $25.5M in 2021-2023 instead of $36.3M, $39.8M, and $28.3M cap hit for the Packers.

 

Plus anyone trading for Rodgers could cut him at any time without any dead cap hit afterward.

[HiAndTight]

 

Anderson missing that chip shot in '98, costing the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl, was thanks enough

 

 

He became and remains one of my favorite players in the NFL as a result. I believe he'd hit every FG that year...or had hit like 30 straight. Whatever it was, that FG was about as close to a lock as one can be! But not for the Vikings.

 

Tracy Porter is also a fan favorite in Green Bay. "This ain't Detroit man! This is the Super Bowl!

 

 

It's very petty, but I absolutely NEVER tire of this! Favre...5 easy yards right in front of him to get his team into the SB. The Vikings with the best RB of his generation having an All Pro year....the Saints with a very poor Run defense. What's the ONE thing that can save them? A Favre!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If traded, Rodger's cap hit would be $22M, $25.5M, and $25.5M in 2021-2023 instead of $36.3M, $39.8M, and $28.3M cap hit for the Packers.

 

Plus anyone trading for Rodgers could cut him at any time without any dead cap hit afterward.

 

Thanks. So basically the team trading for him would be getting him at Tom Brady Tampa dollars, without the cap risk, and 6 years younger. Yeah, there will be teams willing to do that.

[monkeyman343434]

If traded, Rodger's cap hit would be $22M, $25.5M, and $25.5M in 2021-2023 instead of $36.3M, $39.8M, and $28.3M cap hit for the Packers.

 

Plus anyone trading for Rodgers could cut him at any time without any dead cap hit afterward.

 

Got it, thanks, I didn't know this. I don't really understand the NFL cap whatsoever.