2020 NFL Draft Round 1 Discussion

[MrTPlush]

This situation is quite a bit different than the Rodgers/Favre one and multiple people have pointed that out. Personally I thought this concept of drafting a QB was a year or two too early. I won’t pretend to be an expert on Love or the QBs is the upcoming drafts either. That being said Gute deserves everything that comes his way (good or bad) with this pick. To do it now on a guy who isn’t even Top 3 in his class, not a guy who fell in the draft, and to even trade up...ballsy.

 

I’m guessing 6 years from now Gute is going to look like a genius or the biggest idiot in town...probably not a lot of room for inbetween.

 

I am pretty neutral on it. If that’s who they think is the next HOF caliber QB...all the power to them. If it doesn’t work out Gute will be remembered for the wasted picks when Rodgers still had 4 years left on his deal.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I can't believe there's this much attention to me quoting stats from 3 games against power 5 teams. No, college stats are not "empty". They're simply one piece of information for evaluation.

 

Yes, he did have a poor supporting cast in 2019. I'm not downplaying the talent. I understand the Patrick Mahomes ceiling argument, and it's legitimate.

 

What I have a problem with is guys penciling Love in as our franchise QB for the next 15-20 years and saying we now have "two very good QBs", to lump Love in with Rodgers at this point is just absurd.

 

The fact of the matter is that there is probably just as good of a chance at Love ending up as Geno Smith as there is of him ending up as Patrick Mahomes. There are a lot of things that are correctable, but the lack of field vision is concerning -- it's a big reason Brett Hundley never became the QB prospect we hoped for.

 

So let's wait and see. But I do think people are far too apt to overlook clear mechanical weaknesses if the pure athletic talent is there.

 

 

 

Haven't seen a whole lot of people making this argument.

 

Both of those that you bolded have literally been made in this thread.

 

"In theory we are set at QB for another 15-20 years"

 

"Qb is the most important position …….. We now have two, two really good QB."

 

Saying we are set at QB in theory for 15 years is not anointing. It is saying that if he's as good as they think, they have a starting QB. I don't think you are interpreting that as it was intended.

 

And yes NCAA stats are empty. I would venture that those are not even mentioned in any scouting discussion especially as far as yards, TDs and QB rating. The variables like opponents, teammates, offense, etc. make it fairly useless. There are stat Gods that aren't considered pro prospects every year and vice versa. It's a "piece of information" that nobody takes seriously.

[PeaveyFury]

There is nothing more important than QB continuity in the league. The Packers pulled it off once, the 49ers did as well, and beyond that, most teams don't. If they felt that Love was the guy they want taking over in 2-4 years, this pick was absolutely worth it.

 

It doesn't offer instant gratification or the ability to determine whether it was a 'win' like most 1st rounders do (and neither did the Gary pick, FWIW, and that's why a lot of people struggled with it), but whether they're right or not will determine the legacy and future of both Gute and LaFleur in Green Bay.

 

I would suggest waiting at least until the day is over before 'grading' the draft as a success or not. If they manage to land a Pittman or Shenault today, and a contributor in the 3rd, things will seem a lot more rosy to a lot more people. There's a TON of talent still on the board, as we expected there to be on day 2.

[superfly]

I can't believe there's this much attention to me quoting stats from 3 games against power 5 teams. No, college stats are not "empty". They're simply one piece of information for evaluation.

 

Yes, he did have a poor supporting cast in 2019. I'm not downplaying the talent. I understand the Patrick Mahomes ceiling argument, and it's legitimate.

 

What I have a problem with is guys penciling Love in as our franchise QB for the next 15-20 years and saying we now have "two very good QBs", to lump Love in with Rodgers at this point is just absurd.

 

The fact of the matter is that there is probably just as good of a chance at Love ending up as Geno Smith as there is of him ending up as Patrick Mahomes. There are a lot of things that are correctable, but the lack of field vision is concerning -- it's a big reason Brett Hundley never became the QB prospect we hoped for.

 

So let's wait and see. But I do think people are far too apt to overlook clear mechanical weaknesses if the pure athletic talent is there.

 

 

 

Haven't seen a whole lot of people making this argument.

 

Both of those that you bolded have literally been made in this thread.

 

"In theory we are set at QB for another 15-20 years"

 

"Qb is the most important position …….. We now have two, two really good QB."

 

 

Since you’re quoting me out of context... uhh isn’t that the point of putting your neck on the line if you’re Gutekunst? You don’t make that decision unless you have some pretty strong feelings the guy has a shot at being here the next 15 years.

 

Gute could have oh so easily went the easy route and took Queen, Cleveland, WR, etc and never faced any sort of backlash, pressure on his job, or fan backlash. He will go down in eternal Packer lore as the idiot that screwed the last 3 years of Rodgers career if Love is a bust.

 

They feel VERY strong about Love. Watch 5 minutes of tape and you can see it in his arm. Some throws he makes are ungodly, unlike Tua or Burrow.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You can't make this a positive move. Its brutal and Gute should be fired before the end of the year. Trubisky made more sense than this for the cost.

QB not a Need. 1st round pick? Did the guy fall down where this is value? Nope. You stuck with your 1st pick and made this controversial pick? Nope. We traded up for a Backup QB to your highest paid player on your team. How's your 2020 team looking after the 1st round? Worse much much worse.

 

I've read a ton of hyperbole over the years here, but this one might take the grand prize.

[PeaveyFury]

Gute could have oh so easily went the easy route and took Queen, Cleveland, WR, etc and never faced any sort of backlash. They feel VERY strong about Love.

 

I think this is very accurate.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Gute could have oh so easily went the easy route and took Queen, Cleveland, WR, etc and never faced any sort of backlash. They feel VERY strong about Love.

 

I think this is very accurate.

 

Exactly. Love is not the move I would have made, but I'm not an NFL GM. I'm a pud Packers fan commenting on a message board at 7:15 a.m. on a random Friday.

 

Could this move blow up in Gute's face? Of course. But I certainly admire the fact that we have a GM willing to make an extremely gutsy move like this. It gives me hope for both the immediate and long-term future of the organization.

[pacopete4]

If it was Jordan Love who transferred to LSU instead of Burrows, what’s his stat line? It’s a pretend world but part of college stats is who you’re surrounded with. The guy could absolutely stink but it’s something to ponder.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If it was Jordan Love who transferred to LSU instead of Burrows, what’s his stat line? It’s a pretend world but part of college stats is who you’re surrounded with. The guy could absolutely stink but it’s something to ponder.

 

I recently compared Love to Brett Hundley, and not in a good way. I've never wanted to be more wrong.

[PeaveyFury]

For those wondering about pick value, the packers gave up 30 (620 value) and 136 (38 value), for 658 total. The got 26 (700 value), so they 'won' the value side of the trade up.

 

Additionally, their 5th has a value of 20.2, so that doesn't give them a lot of ammo to move up today, but does give them some flexibility if they use it. It can get them up MAYBE 3-4 spots in round 2, which could matter some. More significantly, it could move them up 5-7 spots in the 3rd.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hundley doesn't have half of Jordan Love's arm strength.

 

There's so many variables to think about with this pic. Right now the one thing that's true is nobody's opinion is right or wrong. I'm not a huge fan of trading out of the 4th to get Jordan love. I don't hate the pic I just hate giving up a pic to get him. I definitely get the difference in the philosophy between BPA and immediate need and I think there needs to be a fine balance between the two.

 

I think the people that have convinced themselves that there's a big gap between us and the Niners believe that the immediate need players won't make up that gap. Niners could suffer three or four injuries in training camp and suddenly be a 9-7 team.

[yourout]

At least they didn't draft a kicker.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hundley doesn't have half of Jordan Love's arm strength.

 

There's so many variables to think about with this pic. Right now the one thing that's true is nobody's opinion is right or wrong. I'm not a huge fan of trading out of the 4th to get Jordan love. I don't hate the pic I just hate giving up a pic to get him. I definitely get the difference in the philosophy between BPA and immediate need and I think there needs to be a fine balance between the two.

 

I think the people that have convinced themselves that there's a big gap between us and the Niners believe that the immediate need players won't make up that gap. Niners could suffer three or four injuries in training camp and suddenly be a 9-7 team.

 

Exactly. The Love pick was aimed at long-term continuity. In the ideal scenario, this adds to the chip on Rodgers's shoulder and the Packers win two Super Bowls over the next three years. Rodgers retires on top, right when Love is ready to step in. The Packers secure yet another decade of elite QB play and everyone in the NFC North is jealous.

[OldHeidelberg]

Hundley doesn't have half of Jordan Love's arm strength.

 

There's so many variables to think about with this pic. Right now the one thing that's true is nobody's opinion is right or wrong. I'm not a huge fan of trading out of the 4th to get Jordan love. I don't hate the pic I just hate giving up a pic to get him. I definitely get the difference in the philosophy between BPA and immediate need and I think there needs to be a fine balance between the two.

 

I think the people that have convinced themselves that there's a big gap between us and the Niners believe that the immediate need players won't make up that gap. Niners could suffer three or four injuries in training camp and suddenly be a 9-7 team.

 

I am not that concerned about giving up the pick, it is the end of the 4th round and we still have a bunch of day 3 picks to move around and get some players we are targeting as projects to fill out the roster. I am OK with taking a QB too, we have talked about it here and it makes sense with Rodgers age and the need for a quality backup behind him. But thinking more about it this morning and watching some talking heads I am reminded of 2018 and the camera shots of Rodgers and LaFleur on the sidelines last season. Maybe the packers are a little tired of Rodgers and view him as uncoachable, he is not going anywhere this season obviously but he may see the writing on the wall. Will be very interested to see his reaction today.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hundley doesn't have half of Jordan Love's arm strength.

 

There's so many variables to think about with this pic. Right now the one thing that's true is nobody's opinion is right or wrong. I'm not a huge fan of trading out of the 4th to get Jordan love. I don't hate the pic I just hate giving up a pic to get him. I definitely get the difference in the philosophy between BPA and immediate need and I think there needs to be a fine balance between the two.

 

I think the people that have convinced themselves that there's a big gap between us and the Niners believe that the immediate need players won't make up that gap. Niners could suffer three or four injuries in training camp and suddenly be a 9-7 team.

 

I am not that concerned about giving up the pick, it is the end of the 4th round and we still have a bunch of day 3 picks to move around and get some players we are targeting as projects to fill out the roster. I am OK with taking a QB too, we have talked about it here and it makes sense with Rodgers age and the need for a quality backup behind him. But thinking more about it this morning and watching some talking heads I am reminded of 2018 and the camera shots of Rodgers and LaFleur on the sidelines last season. Maybe the packers are a little tired of Rodgers and view him as uncoachable, he is not going anywhere this season obviously but he may see the writing on the wall. Will be very interested to see his reaction today.

 

If I'm Rodgers, I lay low for awhile. No good can come from him reacting good or bad today, because if he's positive, people will see him as disingenuous, and if he shows negativity, he's a drama queen.

 

At some point, it's not even worth arguing with the fans who are upset. You just gotta laugh at some of the takes being thrown out there today. It's literally 2005 all over again. Quite appropriate in a year where every day feels like Groundhog Day.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

$134mm for a guy you are tired of is a weird flex. I think people put way too much weight on this as it relates to Aaron Rodgers. It's probably still fairly likely Love starts his first game somewhere else unless they watch him after a year or two of practice and clearly see he is special.

 

If Rodgers has a late-career resurgence and the team is winning and he's throwing 38 TDs with a desire to play to 43, this guy is never going to see the field in GB. They have an older QB and acquired some talent there, he may be a safeguard, maybe something more. I don't think it's more complicated than that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Hundley doesn't have half of Jordan Love's arm strength.

 

There's so many variables to think about with this pic. Right now the one thing that's true is nobody's opinion is right or wrong. I'm not a huge fan of trading out of the 4th to get Jordan love. I don't hate the pic I just hate giving up a pic to get him. I definitely get the difference in the philosophy between BPA and immediate need and I think there needs to be a fine balance between the two.

 

I think the people that have convinced themselves that there's a big gap between us and the Niners believe that the immediate need players won't make up that gap. Niners could suffer three or four injuries in training camp and suddenly be a 9-7 team.

 

I am not that concerned about giving up the pick, it is the end of the 4th round and we still have a bunch of day 3 picks to move around and get some players we are targeting as projects to fill out the roster. I am OK with taking a QB too, we have talked about it here and it makes sense with Rodgers age and the need for a quality backup behind him. But thinking more about it this morning and watching some talking heads I am reminded of 2018 and the camera shots of Rodgers and LaFleur on the sidelines last season. Maybe the packers are a little tired of Rodgers and view him as uncoachable, he is not going anywhere this season obviously but he may see the writing on the wall. Will be very interested to see his reaction today.

 

If I'm Rodgers, I lay low for awhile. No good can come from him reacting good or bad today, because if he's positive, people will see him as disingenuous, and if he shows negativity, he's a drama queen.

 

At some point, it's not even worth arguing with the fans who are upset. You just gotta laugh at some of the takes being thrown out there today. It's literally 2005 all over again. Quite appropriate in a year where every day feels like Groundhog Day.

 

He said he would be calling the player and 'welcoming them' no matter what, so there is going to be a follow-up on whether that happened and for his sake, I hope it did.

[Mr Southpaw]

The Love pick was aimed at long-term continuity. In the ideal scenario, this adds to the chip on Rodgers's shoulder and the Packers win two Super Bowls over the next three years. Rodgers retires on top, right when Love is ready to step in. The Packers secure yet another decade of elite QB play and everyone in the NFC North is jealous.

 

Exactly. Aaron Rodgers played in 3, 2, and 2 games his first three years. In those three years he threw 59 passes. If Rodgers were to get hurt for any amount of time after say, October of next year, Love steps in. It is best if he sits and learns from one of the best, but if need we still have a good chance to win.

[GAME05]

Maybe Love is more the attempt to not become Chicago or Jacksonville a few years down the road. Now ideally they won't be spending five years desperately trying to find their next QB they could call a franchise guy. New England is about to go through it, too.

 

Maybe the comparison isn't so much Rodgers to Favre but Favre to Majkowski. Maybe Gute sees stardom in Love the way Wolf saw it in Favre and doesn't want to let some other team get him. Plus Love's downsides are big positives with Rodgers, so who better to learn from while Love sits for a few years?

 

edit: It's not like we were one slightly better player away from beating SF last year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If anything, this gives the Packers a very young, potentially very talented and very affordable backup QB for the next four years. Plus if Rodgers were to go down and Love took over and did well, the Packers could be looking at their own version of the Patriots situation with Brady and Garoppolo.

[pacopete4]

If it was Jordan Love who transferred to LSU instead of Burrows, what’s his stat line? It’s a pretend world but part of college stats is who you’re surrounded with. The guy could absolutely stink but it’s something to ponder.

 

I recently compared Love to Brett Hundley, and not in a good way. I've never wanted to be more wrong.

 

What did you compare? Stat lines?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If it was Jordan Love who transferred to LSU instead of Burrows, what’s his stat line? It’s a pretend world but part of college stats is who you’re surrounded with. The guy could absolutely stink but it’s something to ponder.

 

I recently compared Love to Brett Hundley, and not in a good way. I've never wanted to be more wrong.

 

What did you compare? Stat lines?

 

Basically. Both are athletic QBs who had up and down college careers. Love's arm talent is much, much better than Hundley's, though.

 

When I see draftniks say that Love's closest comparable is Mahomes, it does make me a little giddy.

[homer]

I'm just glad we had some sports related stuff to talk about.

[pacopete4]

 

What did you compare? Stat lines?

 

Basically. Both are athletic QBs who had up and down college careers. Love's arm talent is much, much better than Hundley's, though.

 

When I see draftniks say that Love's closest comparable is Mahomes, it does make me a little giddy.

 

It would be interesting to me to see where his draft stock would've been with a repeat in numbers from his junior season. Obviously you cannot do that but if he repeated 36 TD's and 6 INT's in back to back years, you have to believe his stock rises. Even with that said it's hard to find a mock draft that didn't have him around the 20 pick range or so.

[MrTPlush]

At least we drafted him in the first round so the contract has 5 years (including the option). That goes a year beyond the current Rodgers contract. If we drafted a QB in a later round we would have been setting ourselves up for a Jimmy G situation where we end up not even getting to see the QB play.