Pitcher Win/Loss Records and Cappy's Luck

[rluzinski]

In anticipation of having to hear how great Capuano has been this year during the telecast tonight (based mostly on his record), I thought I'd look at the team's starting pitchers' numbers:

 [b] REC ERA RS RS RK* TLoss CWin QS%[/b] Capuano 18 - 10 3.80 5.61 6 3 2 48% Ohka 11 - 8 3.95 5.62 5 3 0 57% Sheets 10 - 9 3.33 3.73 47 4 0 73% Davis 11 - 11 3.85 4.59 33 4 0 68% Santos 4 - 13 4.64 4.12 43 5 1 50% 

---

RS = Run Support = Number of runs scored for the pitcher while he was the pitcher of record, averaged over 9 innings

 

RK = Run Support ranking, out of a total of 52 pitchers; 50 qualifying pitchers + Sheets & Santos

 

TLoss = Tough losses = Losses in games where the pitcher had a "quality start" (3 or less runs in 6+ innings)

 

CWins = Cheap Wins = Wins in games where the pitcher does not have a "quality start"

 

QS% = Percent of starts where the pitcher had a "quality start"

---

 

As you can see, out of the 5 starting pitchers with the most innings, Cap is actually last in QS%! He and Ohka have simply been blessed with great run support, which is a big reason for their good records.

 

Santos with a 50% QS% and FIVE Tough Losses? He certainly fell apart towards the end of the year but he certainly wasn't helped by his team.

 

With the run support Sheets had, he was LUCKY to be 10-9.

[RyDogg66]

Nice work russ. That is a great little breakdown. If Sheets had more starts I'd say he should be team Cy Young. He really did have another great year considering a few starts were made with him still feeling the effects of his vertigo.

 

Davis also has had a much better year than I realized.

 

Finally, while Cappy has gotten great RS, his ERA really is pretty decent. It isnt 18 win decent, but pretty good none the less.

[rluzinski]

I didn't mean to say Cap hasn't had a good year. He certainly has and will probably only get better. I still think he's only the 3rd best pitcher on the team, however.

[deeswan]

Clearly Ohka and Cappy inspire their offensive mates to score more runs, along the lines of Wayne Franklin. Russ, you seriously underestimate this ability, which you flippantly refer to as "luck."

 

Edit for this: I think one thing Russ's numbers show is that a pitcher can really help himself by being decent with a bat (although not in Davis' case). A pitcher who is at least not an automatic out in the #9 spot can make a huge difference in the amount of run support he gets. Now, I'm not saying there is any evidence that it has made a huge difference this year, just saying that it does matter.

[clancyphile]

I consider Cappy and Sharpie to be about equivalent - you could flip them either way in the starting rotation, and you'd be fine.

 

I admit a little favoritism towards Cappy - if only because he's so good at keeping baserunners honest. It's kind of fun to see a baserunner not even thinking of stealing a base get caught napping.

[rluzinski]

Cappy's pickoff move is a thing of beauty but I'd rather have the significantly more quality starts from Davis. Also, looking at FIP (Fielding independant pitching), which only looks at HRs, BB and K's:

 

Sheets: 3.30

Davis: 4.02

Ohka: 4.09 (Mil)

Capuano: 4.58

Santos: 5.05

 

Only Santos has a worse FIP.

[bork]

The QS numbers are pretty close compared to last year as well.

 

2004:

Sheets - 70%

Davis - 70%

Capuano - 47%

Santos - 43%

 

I believe Sheets also had 8 tough losses and Davis had 7.

 

I thought I read that Davis is tied for the league lead for most quality starts over the past 2 years.

[homer]

I haven't had time to look it up, but Davis seems to have had a really impressive second half. Second in the league in K's for a lefty? Who'da thunk it?

[rluzinski]

I believe Sheets also had 8 tough losses and Davis had 7.

 

Sheets had 9, Davis 6. Neither had a "cheap win".

 

LINK

[chuckiehacks]

Well I think Cappy is roughly twice as good as everyone else, because Joe Morgan told me all that matters is wins.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[brewers4eric]

Excellent post, RL. Turn a few of the TLosses into wins and we're in contention.

 

I groaned a bit when I read the comparison of Ohka and Cappy to Wayne Franklin. I understand the statement, it just made me flashback to the days when Matt Kinney and Wayne Franklin were getting 30 plus starts and we had worse options in the 4 and 5 slots.

 

Given the injury problems with Sheets, I also think its a good sign that we've only used 8 different starting pitchers this year.

[endaround]

Hopefully Cappy gets that 20th win so he can cost $1 million more in arby come 2007!

[xisxisxis]

Hopefully Cappy gets that 20th win so he can cost $1 million more in arby come 2007!

 

Don't worry end, he'll probably have another injury from overuse in the quest for 20 and he won't be able to pitch most of next year. That should depress his Arby numbers.

[rluzinski]

I REALLY hope win/loss records aren't used at ALL to determine arby numbers. Of course if they are, it's only helped the Brewers in the last couple of years.

 

As for Cappy, he'll probably revert back to about 12-14 wins next year, so maybe they can argue he took a step BACK in 2006 to the arbitor.

[endaround]

An arbitraitor can take anything into consdieration I believe. So if he gets some stat saying pitchers born in August do better well who are we to judge.

 

But I do believe the Elias uses wins as part of their FA classification system. If I'm wrong, please tell me.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I REALLY hope win/loss records aren't used at ALL to determine arby numbers.

 

Replace 'arby numbers' with 'Cy Young award' or 'All Star berth' or 'free agent contract,' and that should give you the answer. They are certainly used...they're not the only thing, but I think it's a safe assumption to say that W-L record plays more of a role than DIPS ERA in a good many of these discussions.

 

Of course, arby hearings involve presentations by both sides, so each side will put forth whatever is necessary to make their case...the Brewers would whip out run support etc just as Capuano's agent waxes nostalgic about how few 18-game winners the Brewers have had...

[rluzinski]

It's a shame that an arbitor (sorry, I'm a Halo 2 fan) would use a stat that's only maybe 40% in the control of the pitcher (offense and defense being primarily out of his control). It's like trying to measure a pitcher's ability by a team's overall record. Yes, he certainly had some say to the record but if you can easily strip all that away, why wouldn't you?

 

If I were an arbitor, I'd look at, in no particular order:

 

Innings pitched

K/IP

BB/IP

HR/IP

ERA

 

EDIT: Also: park the pitcher plays in and BABIP, compared to the rest of his team.

[joepepsi]

Month by month stats are arbitrary, but if you look at Cappy's ERA by month it's sorta surprising; starting with April: 4.76; 1.94; 4.15; 4.21; 3.73; 4.83.

 

May was great, ironically he only went 3-2. August was his only other above average ERA month, but his w/l was a paltry 2-3.

 

It seems as though the better a Brewer pitches the fewer the wins!

[brettac1]

Stuff like W/L and the like would be used by Cappy's side in an arby hearing. Stuff like FIP, QS%, etc. would be used by the Brewers side. The arbitor would then decide on which of the sides has a better case. If he sucks next year and his luck evens out, he could be cheap when his arby starts.

[BMuch]

Russ

 

Just a quick question. Using your data I would have guessed that Cappy had 19 QS. (18W-2CW+3TL). However, Cappy only has 16 QS.

 

I must be overlooking something.

Thanks

[SoCalBrewfan]

It's a shame that an arbitor (sorry, I'm a Halo 2 fan) would use a stat ...

clip...

 

If I were an arbitor, I'd look at, in no particular order:

 

Remember, though, the person hearing the case doesn't look at the numbers and determine the appropriate salary. Rather, he or she chooses between two salaries, the one offered by the team and that offered by the player's agent. Each side presents stats to support its case. What's most important typically is the salaries of comparable players with the same level of experience...then they argue who is truly comparable, whether Capuano's first three years are more like Zito or Mulder or Buerhle or whoever.

 

So the agent will put forth wins when it's to his advantage, and the team will do so when it's to theirs. The Brewers would argue that he's not as good as 18 wins might suggest, etc. Which is why players don't like the process, where the team basically has to argue that the player isn't as good as the agent says he is, that he's worse than the names they've put forth as comps.

[rluzinski]

Since a pitcher's record is largely a function of their team's abilities, why even use it to help determine individual abilitiy at all? For example, Clemens has the best ERA but because his run support is 47th out of the 50 qualified pitcher in the NL his record is "only" 12-8. To evaluate him based on his win/loss record is absolute bull if you don't consider his run support and defense behind him.

 

I'm sure teams and agents present meaningless stats all the time; that doesn't mean the arbitor can't simply disregard them. My hope would simply be that he knows which statistics are meaningful and significant.

 

Of course, Sheet's street value was certainly less as a result of his mediocre win/loss record, so I guess it's helped the Brewers more than hurt them, but it's still not right.

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

---

I understand the statement, it just made me flashback to the days when Matt Kinney and Wayne Franklin were getting 30 plus starts and we had worse options in the 4 and 5 slots.

---

I shudder at the thought that we had worse guys than Kinney and Franklin in the rotation.