19 games to the break--what do you expect?

[rluzinski]

10-9 would still be acceptable in my eyes....but the Cubs Series is the one that I really want to win.

 

And that's the one with easily the worst odds (43% per game). I'd love a series win but I'll be OK with getting just 1 there, unless the pitching match ups really favor the Brewers (Sheets and no Zambrano).

[IIAY]

I'd be giddy just to win one at PNC.

 

In all seriousness, late June/early July 4-game series' in Pittsburgh have historically not been very friendly to the Crew.

[Lil Dummy]

"I'd love a series win but I'll be OK with getting just 1 there, unless the pitching match ups really favor the Brewers (Sheets and no Zambrano)."

 

Unless the Cubs shuffle their rotation and pitch Zambrano on six days rest, the Brewers will miss him (and Lilly). And whether the Brewers skip Gallardo's spot in the rotation next time through or not, Sheets will almost certainly pitch in the Cubs series.

 

So you're looking for two out of three, right Russ?

[davego]

5-7 game lead @ the break. Works for me.

[rluzinski]

Really, anything between 10-9 and 12-7 for the next 19 games could easily happen. A couple 1 run games in either direction makes all the difference. That's how baseball works.

 

So you're looking for two out of three, right Russ?

 

With those advantageous pitching match ups, it makes the possibility a lot more realistic, sure. If you mean, will I feel personally wronged if the Brewers only take one, probably not. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I'd certainly enjoy it. Since anything can happen over three games, I try not to get to hung up on the results of just one series.

[Fear The Chorizo]

From their play over this past road trip, the Brewers have definitely righted the ship and seem poised to steadily improve their record over the long haul - Heck, if Cordero gets that missed 3rd strike call down in Texas, and Suppan actually showed up to pitch in Minnesota yesterday, we could easily be talking about a 7-2 road trip against AL teams!

 

I'm not looking for Milwaukee to have to win every single series between now and the All Star break, but looking at pitching matchups and the current state of their opponents, it's hard not to be greedy, especially if Yo is effective and Capuano comes back strong.

 

If Milwaukee plays a few games over .500 in this stretch, I would think that their lead in the division would at worst be exactly the same as it is now - the difference would be that other NL Central teams lost 19 games off their schedule to close the gap between them and Milwaukee.

 

The Cubs are really a team full of talented players in disarray right now - it seems like they are as stable emotionally as their comical fan base. The Cards have been hanging around, but they now are in the toughest part of their schedule outside the division, and they can't seem to keep their players healthy - their farm system stinks, and because of that it will be difficult for Jocketty to make a trade to improve the Cardinals, unless he wants the shelves in their minor leagues to be completely bare.

 

------------------------------------

[TheCouga23]

Quote:

---

The Cubs are really a team full of talented players in disarray right now

---

 

I disagree. The Cubs have three or four talented players, and a bunch of overpriced scrubs to fill in. One of those talented players is on the DL, and the other will be facing a suspension soon. The Cubs, even on paper, do not look like a good team, or a team that could even pull off a .500 season. Just because you pay guys a lot doesn't mean they are good. Even Soriano is overrated, and batting him leadoff accents his weakness (OBP) and minimizes his strength (SLG). The Cubs are an organization that is about as clueless as the Pirates. The only difference is the Cubs have money to spend on payroll. But that does not equal wins. You have to spend that money wisely.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm not saying the Cubs are loaded top to bottom with talent - All I'm saying is that a team that has D. Lee, Soriano, and Ramirez playing every day is talented. I should have left "full" off my last post - aside from those three, the rest of their position player roster is full of middling veterans and low ceiling young players. The exception would be Felix Pie - he's probably up at least 1 year earlier than he should be, but his overall talent is great. Defensively he's already a plus CF, but if the Cubs don't watch out they could very well create another Corey Patterson at the plate.

 

The talent that they do have is indeed in disarray for the very reasons you mentioned in your last post - D. Lee's impending suspension, Soriano batting leadoff, and Aram's uncertain timetable due to his knee injury.

 

-------------------------

[rluzinski]

Great start to the home stand. A nice 9 or 10 game lead in the NL Central would sure be nice at the all star break.

[pitchleague]

Ugh, I can't believe there are 19, now 17. games to the break. Where has this season gone?

[Tailgat0r76]

Time flies when you're having fun

[bthurley19]

Time flies when you're having fun.

[Tailgat0r76]

woah

[razzzorsharp]

It looks like I will be eating crow on this hopefully. I like it.

[rluzinski]

Don't worry. The Brewers will lose a 3 in a row somewhere in there and you can safely predict a Brewer collapse again. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[razzzorsharp]

That 9-10 mark I predicted would be a real collapse. That might even remove them from playoff contention. :insertwhateveremoticonyouwouldlikehere:

[UWRyan428]

What are the chances we don't see D-Lee because of the suspension? I know he appealled it, but I'm just curious because it definitely would help our cause not to see the doubles machine who masquerades as their HR hitter.

[rluzinski]

I'd think he would time the suspension to make sure he played against the division leaders.

[Fatter than Joey]

So far so good ---

 

I look at these remaining games, with the 3 against the Cubs being the critical ones -- If we go 2-1 against the Cubs, that puts us in a very good spot.

 

The other thing that should be noted -- is that we have now moved past the NL East and I think are .5 games behind AZ for the wildcard -- so if the Cubs/Cards did something incredible -- we are in a great position to capture the WC (as a plan B) -- this will undoubtedly give our playoff chances a huge lift.

 

Part of me hopes that the Cubs are able to capture the WC -- you may think I am insane, but the Brewers v. Cubs in the playoffs would be something unreal to experience.

[jason21nl]

so if the Cubs/Cards did something incredible -- we are in a great position to capture the WC (as a plan B

 

the only thing I see bad with this is that if they do something incredible and over take the Brewers, that would probably mean the Brewers tanked and would have fallen out of the Wild Card chase. I in no way want to see the Cubs at any point in time. No matter what the Brewers or Cubs record is they always seem to give us trouble. As for something unreal to experience though, it would be the first time that MP was filled with Brewers fans to the max when the Cubs are in town. That would be nice to see

[Lil Dummy]

"Ran some numbers. Here are the average expected wins:

home stand: 5.55 wins / road trip: 5.45 wins. Wow, 11 wins on the dot"

 

Run it again, and let's see if the computer has climbed on board w/ my 12-7 prediction! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

Run it again, and let's see if the computer has climbed on board w/ my 12-7 prediction!

 

You are .4 wins shorts now! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Lil Dummy]

Yessss!!!

 

Round that number off!

[UWRyan428]

Well the Royals' bullpen is gassed, and Jorge faced one batter (5 pitches), Dave Bush-style, against the Cards, serving up a tomato. My hope is they might bump everyone up a start and send Jorge on Sunday against our own Fernando Valenzuela-hopeful. Blind hope, I know, but it would be fanciful to see two of the better Mexican hurlers square off, with the United States and Mexico going at it in the Gold Cup.

[jhpc12]

With the All-star break just around the corner and 16 games to go til then, I was looking at what the division would have to do to over take the Brewers at seasons end.

 

If we finish out 9 and 7 going in at the break, that puts us at

50-38. that leaves 74 games to the end of the season.

 

If we play only .500 ball from that point on (37-37) we would end the seson at (87-75), then from today's date the Cubs would have to finish up( 56-35), the Cardinals would have to finishup (56-37), and Houston or Pittsburg would have to finish (57-33). These records would give somebody a one game lead (88-74) at seasons end.

 

I expect atleast one more tough streak for the Brewers. I don't know how the rest feel but, I really like the way this has started to shake out.