19 games to the break--what do you expect?

[obobo55]

9 game homestand (SF, KC, HOU) followed by a 10 game trip (CHC, PIT, WAS). It appears we will have 4 starts for Sheets, Vargas, & Bush, 3 for Suppan, at least 1 for Yovani, and 3 others for either a returning Cappy or Gallardo.

 

I'd like to see a 5-4 homestand followed by a 6-4 roadtrip. Take 2 from SF, 1 from the Royals, and 2 from the 'Stros. Steal two from the Scrubbies, 2 at PNC, and 2 more in the nation's capital. That would put us at 49-39 at the AS break (27-16 home, 22-23 road) with a great chance to set up our rotation and 'pen as we see fit coming out of a long 4-day break and heading into a nice stretch of home games leading to the trade deadline.

 

Anything better than 11-8 would be truly fantastic IMO. 10-9 would be fine too I suppose. Things might get a bit hairy if we do 9-10 or worse.

 

Thoughts?

[Ennder]

I would assume about the same. 11-8 expectation, 12-7 and I'm happy, 10-9 and I'm ok with it. If we play under .500 during that stretch I'll be disappointed.

[bucks2281]

SF: 2 of 3

KC: 2 of 3

HOU: 2 of 3

at CHC: 2 of 3

PIT: 2 of 4

WSH: 1 of 3

 

11-8

 

I'd expect the Brewers maybe to sweep one their home series, and I'd certainly expect a series win against the Royals (they're heating up, but so are the Brewers, and KC probably isn't as strong on the road). PNC may give the Brewers issues, and the Nationals aren't nearly as bad as some people projected to them. And as for after the AS break, Colorado is no pushover, and Arizona is a good team. The schedule becomes more favorable, but the Brewers need to keep up the intensity.

[IslandsAC]

I'll echo the 11-8 sentiment. As long as the offense keeps clicking, the pitching will sustain this team (even though at times it sure doesn't seem that way). I want to see Rickie return with reckless abandon. I want to see Billy stay hot. I want to see a few appearances by Yo. I'm excited for that.

 

On a side note, I really enjoyed following Rluz's road trip probabilities. Since baseball is such a long season, it's somewhat silly to focus on one game or even one series, but I think once you start looking at the 10 game road trips or home stands, there begins to be some value in viewing that microcosm of the season as a whole.

 

Is this something we can continue to do for future road trips or home stands? Is it as simple as plugging it into a formula or is there a lot more work involved?

 

EDIT: As an idea, could there be a current road trip/home stand thread in the In-Game thread forum, complete with aforementioned probabilities and predictions?

[UeckerAddict]

If there is any opportunity to get on a hot streak, it is this stretch before the All-Star game. 11-8 sounds good, but I would actually hope for better.

[UWRyan428]

Is it wrong of me to expect 12-7? I remember I expected a 7-3 homestand when we went 9-1... And for all intents and purposes, this homestand would seem to mirror that one (outside of 9 games as opposed to 10). But moreover, the only team that is scary is the geriatrics by the Bay. But it would seem that we have the favorable pitching match-ups (though the Yo v Lowry match-up is the wildcard). So I'm saying 12-7. We play the Cubs better at Miller South than Wrigley North.

[Mike2k33]

I'm more afraid of the Royals than any other team we play before the break. We had problems with them last year(1-2 at KC) and they're pretty hot in interleague play yet again as they're 8-4 so far this year.

 

12-7 would be nice, anything more would be great. Anything over .500 is acceptable, IMO.

[rluzinski]

I am surprised that people still make such a big deal about the Brewers losing 2 of 3 from KC last year. Like a bad team is never supposed to win a series at home? The Brewers beat KC bad, KC beat the Brewers bad and the Crew lost a close game. The Brewers were outscored 12 to 14. Doesn't sound very far out of line to me.

[bucks2281]

I have to wonder where KC would be in the standings if they played in the NL Central. I don't believe they're a terrible team--they can swing the bat, judging by two 17-run outbursts in the past week or so.

[Mike2k33]

I wasn't saying that since we lost two of three from them last year they have a better chance of beating us. I'm just saying in the last two years the Royals have been good vs the NL.

 

It doesn't make them a good team, but you certainly can't just chalk up 2+ wins just because they're the Royals.

[mikerollins]

I'm going to say 15-4.

[jlau20]

What do I expect? I expect that the team will go atleast 10-9 in the next 19, given their talent and the way they've played so far this year. They've done too much so far to go below .500 in this next stretch of games before the break.

 

What do I predict? I'll go with 12-7.

 

6-3 on the homestand, 6-4 on the roadtrip.

[LUKE232323]

I'm hoping for a 7-2 homestand, with one sweep out of those series. We miss the aces in all three series (if you consider Cain SF's ace), and we do have the top record in the NL at home. 7-2 may be a lot to ask for however.

 

I'll say a 6-4 road trip, winning 1 of 3 at Cubs, 3 of 4 at Pitt, and 2 of 3 at Washington.

 

I'm going optimistic here. The bats are waking up.

 

13-6.

[DougJones43]

At least 17-2, or I jump down an elevator shaft.

[razzzorsharp]

I expect 9-10, with a winning homestand but a hard time on the road. I think they will have a 1-2 game lead on the Cubs at the break.

[LUKE232323]

Just curious, what signs have the Cubs shown of going on a dominating stretch? Especially when you add Ramirez/Lee will both be out together for at least 5 games?

[jlau20]

Yeah I don't know if the Cubs would be able to pull that off. Especially considering you predict a 9-10 record til the break for the Brewers.

 

The Cubs would have to do 5 games better than that (ish) to get within 1-2 games of the Brewers by then.

 

I don't know if the Cubs have 19 or 20 games left or whatever til then, but I don't see them going 14-5.

[UWRyan428]

The Cubs pitching, as of late, has been their Achilles. While Zambrano has finally woken up, the rest of their rotation has faltered since Hill (who is still decent, but not the Cy some were predicting...though I was not that prognosticator), Marquis, and Lilly began the year imitating Avery/Glavine/Maddux. I would say that of all the teams, the Jints scare me the most. Bonds' bat has begun to show signs of Dr. Frankenstein's work again, their defense is solid as always, and that rotation (even without seeing Cain) is one of the top three in baseball, though I give a good chuckle at the idea of our bats feasting on 80mph fastballs from the biggest pitching contract in baseball (Prince especially.... Lefty matchups are Thanksgiving for the Regal One). Truth be told, as I said before, Lowry is the pitcher who scares me the most, but we're throwing a greenhorn at him and we all know how greenhorns fare at Miller (albeit usually AGAINST us...).

[berniebrewer4life]

I think 11-8 or 12-7 seems pretty solid to me. Also, i expect if that streak happens, the Brewers will have 8 to a 9 game lead over the Cards/Cubs.

[RightFieldCoder]

I agree with 9-10. The pitching staff will find ways to lose games. And the few days the pitchers show up the hitters will forget how to make contact.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Geez, even if you factor in seven starts for Bush/Suppan, I have a hard time believing that the boys will do worse than 9-10/10-9.

 

I'm cool with just anything starting at 11-8. That seems reasonable to me. 49-39 at the break seems like a good place to be.

[Lil Dummy]

12 out of 19, or I curse like a sailor. You make hay when the sun shines, and you win games when the schedule is soft.

[rluzinski]

Here's what my gut says:

 

SF: 1.5 of 3

KC: 2 of 3

HOU: 2 of 3

@ CHC: 1 of 3

@ PIT: 2.5 of 4

@ WSH: 2 of 3

 

11-8 it is.

 

12 out of 19, or I curse like a sailor.

 

I look forward to you sharing your over reaction with the rest of us. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

---

EDIT: Ran some numbers. Here are the average expected wins:

 

home stand: 5.55 wins

road trip: 5.45 wins

-------------

Wow, 11 wins on the dot http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Probabilities for the upcoming home stand:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/6_18_hometand.jpg

[bjkrautk]

10-9 would still be acceptable in my eyes....but the Cubs Series is the one that I really want to win.

 

 

I'm sticking to the belief that - if the Brewers just play around .500 ball the rest of the way - no one else in the division is going to jump up and win 85+ games. All I want is for the Brewers to keep winning more than they're losing...then let the Cards fall where they may.

(...and the Cubs, and the Pirates, and the Reds. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif )

[Lil Dummy]

"I look forward to you sharing your over reaction with the rest of us."

 

Fair enough, as long as I can look forward to congrats on my prognosticating abilities when the Crew goes 12-7 down the stretch. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif