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Final Record Probabilites - Final Thoughts

rluzinski

By rluzinski,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

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  • The straight-up records currently suggest 81.14 wins for the Crew.
  • The Pythagorean Runs records suggest 81.14 wins for the Brewers as well.
  • The head-to-head records based on location (Brewers home/Reds Away, Brewers Away/Pirates home) suggest 81.56 wins. This one suggests that the Brewers are more likely to take two of the next three against Cincy, but are split over who takes the extra game in Pittsburgh.

 

It will probably all come down to that final game on Sunday at PNC.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Because the Crew couldn't POSSIBLY blow this 6-1 lead:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo5.gif

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo5histo.gif

 

For anyone who cares, I calculate the odds of the Crew winning a single game against the Reds at home at 60%; the Pirates on the road at 54%.

 

Provided the Crew hangs on, 83-79 has now become a real possibility (22%).

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Ahh yes. Where series probabilities and final record probabilities become one!

 [b] Fin Rec Prob[/b] Sweep 83 - 79 15.7% Win 2 82 - 80 40.2% Win 1 81 - 81 34.3% Swept 80 - 82 9.8%

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlohisto.gif

 

So, 56% chance of a winning record and a 90% chance of a non-losing record. Hopefully Davis gets a much deserved win in the first game.

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xisxisxis First Round Pick

xisxisxis

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But what are our chances of winning the Wild Card? We're never out until mathematically eliminated.....my bad we were mathematically elimated quite a few days ago, but hadn't seen many comments from the "we aren't mathematically out of it even if we are only on pace to win 81 games" crowd.
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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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but hadn't seen many comments from the "we aren't mathematically out of it even if we are only on pace to win 81 games" crowd.

 

I've tried to steer this thread into the "winning record" direction, as opposed to using it to say people were "wrong" about the Brewer's wildcard chances.

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JoeH33 ACL Brewers

JoeH33

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Quote:
But what are our chances of winning the Wild Card? We're never out until mathematically eliminated.....my bad we were mathematically elimated quite a few days ago, but hadn't seen many comments from the "we aren't mathematically out of it even if we are only on pace to win 81 games" crowd.

Was this snide, condecending comment really necessary? So what if people got excited when we were about 4 games out a month ago. We haven't had much to be excited about for the last decade and you blame people for getting their hopes up.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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I was excited to be 4.5 games back in the wildcard race in August as well. The only thing I disagreed with was our actual chances of winning it. 4.5 sounds great, but with 5 teams ahead of us it really didn't matter.

 

That was the original point of this thread; quantify the actual probability of winning the wildcard, NOT to discourage people from enjoying the ride.

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  • 2 weeks later...
rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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I just wanted to sum up my predictions and how well they performed. On September 12th, when the Brewers were 71-72, I "fixed" my predictions by basing them on simulations of 10,000 seasons for the remaining 19 games. It calculated that the most probable finish was 10-9. 18+% of the simulated seasons ended with winning 10 of the last 19 games. Yes indeed, that gives a final record of 81-81:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo.gif

 

As an added bonus, with regard to how many wins the wildcard team will have, I said, "89 wins. That's what I think it will take" (8/24 post). As it turned out, Houston won it with 89 wins, with Philli finishing 1 game back at 88 wins.

 

I don't post this to pump myself up, but only to hopefully prove the validity in these type of calculations. They can't predict the future, but they can point to the most likely final records.

 

Someone in this thread asked, "What makes your 87 prediction any better than someones 84 win prediction?" The answer is, it was better because it was based on qualitative reasoning that took into account the binomial distribution of wins and strength of schedule. It won't always be right but it will be closer than just a wild guess.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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you could probably use this to make money in vegas...

 

Nothing I've done here is original. I just put the pieces together.

 

Even if you just assumed all teams had a 50/50 shot at winning all their remaining games, you'd see how the winning distributions turns out. If you take 5 average teams, it is very likely that 1 will win more than half their games.

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endaround Carolina Mudcats

endaround

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That said, baseball lines seem to be really screwy with teams often getting a 66% chance to win a given game. I would guess that if you went bak and lookd at the lines and bet against Clemens every single start this year, you'd have made a nice sum.
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