Final Record Probabilites - Final Thoughts

[ILBrewerFan]

Weren't you kind of describing a binomial, but pi changes for each team they play? pi would be lower on the road against the Astros, and higher against the Pirates?

 

If this was directed to me, yes I was. A binomial is a multinomial with the outcomes being "success" or "fail". The problem is that the probability changes from series to series (team to team). If you assumed a constant win percentage for the Brewers then you could use a MN over the remainder of the season.

[rluzinski]

I use the pythagorean and log5 to come up with hypolthetical win % the Brewers "should" have against each team. It's all described in that log5 thread I linked too above.

[rluzinski]

Man, the Brewers have really hurt their chances for a .500 season http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo13.gif

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo13histo.gif

[Member]

The sweep by the 'Stros essentially threw out the possibility of them winning 81.

 

Even if we take 2 of three against the Cubs, I really don't see us winning more than one against the Cards - if that. We might do better than split against the Reds, but then we go to Pittsburgh - and the Pirates are red hot right now.

 

I see six wins in the last 12.

[ccbrew]

I don't know enough about stats to enter a discussion about the validity of the table, but it sure is interesting to look at. Keep them coming!

[RightFieldCoder]

Luckily, the table doesn't take into consideration that the Cards will (hopefully) be resting most of their stars. (Although their AAA team beat us the last time we met) Also, will the Bucs/Reds be using their regular starters, or will they have a couple of call-ups getting experience? This will throw a little bit more of error in rluz's graph.

 

I still like the stats, though. I'm too much of a math nerd to not appreciate the numbers.

[rluzinski]

The sweep by the 'Stros essentially threw out the possibility of them winning 81.

 

My numbers say 50/50 shot at .500 or better.

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo12.gif

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo12histo.gif

 

It's the Red's series that is the key. A four game series at home against a team we should have a 60% chance of beating them on any given day. They HAVE been playing much better lately though... we'll see.

 

1-1, remaining series with Cubs

1-2 against Cards

3-1 against Reds

2-1 against Pirates

------------

.500

 

Take 2 of 3 from the resting Cards and we have a winning season.

[xisxisxis]

My numbers say 50/50 shot at .500 or better.

 

Do your numbers take into account Gary Glover starting 2 of the remaining games?

[rluzinski]

Do your numbers take into account Gary Glover starting 2 of the remaining games?

 

Absoluetely..... NOT. The individual game probabilities assumes team average pitching and batting for each game. The fact that Sheet's ability to keep down "runs against" for the crew obviously hurts the odds a bit.

 

In the end this is just a rough estimator anyway. I'm not going to pretend it's correct to within 1 or 2%. What it does show is that as a result of mostly home games against mostly easier opponents, the Brewers have a good shot at finishing 8-4.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"My numbers say 50/50 shot at .500 or better."

 

"Do your numbers take into account Gary Glover starting 2 of the remaining games?"

 

Does it matter, Dave?

 

Glover's probably replacing Obermueller for now. And when Obermueller starts, we're pretty much guaranteed ONE loss that night. Glover? Unless he pitches both ends of a double-header, the results won't be worse, can they?

 

Too bad Ben Sheets went down, because, for a while there, say mid-August, the Vampire had a 4.20 ERA and he was our WORST starter, which ain't bad. Sadly, since then, VS imploded (a 12.86 ERA since 8/16!) and became our lone candidate for Designated Rotation Stooge.

 

When Ben S was lost, Obermueller stepped neatly into that coveted role, by posting a 10.32 ERA in 3 starts.

 

If we DO keep even one of these dudes in '06, I'd go with The Vampire, who at least pitched decently as a starter from April through mid-August. But if Obermueller is still in the organization next year, Ned will be tempted to keep attempting this failed experiment and start Good Ol' Obie a few times.

 

Einstein once said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

[rluzinski]

I think we'll have some young options next year. That, or Rick Helling.

[rluzinski]

Almost 50% chance for a .500 season. 2 of 3 from the Cards would go a long way to reaching that goal:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo10.gif

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo10histo.gif

[tomwopat]

who is going to bail me out of jail in pittsburgh when i run out on the field when we win our 81st game?

[rluzinski]

The Brewers chances of a winning season are looking pretty good.

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo7.gif

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo7histo.gif

[Dough73]

I was hoping the numbers would look a little better.

[rluzinski]

35% chance of having a 5-2 record or better in the last 2 series... you thought it would be BETTER than that?

 

I'm suprised no one mentioned that the Brewers were officially eliminated from the playoffs with their loss yesterday.

[TauPentaRei]

All the talk about stopping "The Streak"... leaving Pittsburgh alone to wallow in the basement...

 

The remaining problem is just semantics:

 

Finishing at 81-81, one could still say "the Brewers haven't had a winning season since '92"

 

I NEED NEED NEED a 5-2 finish...

 

sorry - I just the thread for this topic alone...

[Dough73]

Well we are playing the Reds and the Pirates. We really need to go 5-2 and end with a winning record.

[rluzinski]

Going 5-2 isn't a walk in the park, no matter who the opposition is.

[Bucky Rules]

Quote:

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Going 5-2 isn't a walk in the park, no matter who the opposition is.

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that's true, but I think there might be a little off-season vacation planning for some of the Reds and Pirates. I think the Brewers are still focused on a legit goal. Unless I'm missing something Cincy and Pitt don't have much to play for --- except maybe Pitt doesn't want to be alone on the loser's (as in consecutive losing seasons) perch.

 

Besides... Davis is only pitching one more game, so we're bound to score runs in the other six. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

that's true, but I think there might be a little off-season vacation planning for some of the Reds and Pirates. I think the Brewers are still focused on a legit goal.

 

That would be interesting to study; Whether bad teams play even worse in the last few weeks and vise versa. I understand many will bring up kids just to try them out but I mean the whole "phoning it in" argument.

[istanbultaye]

The Brewers the last few years have actually fared decently in the role of 'spoiler' the last couple years haven't they?

[Bucky Rules]

Quote:

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That would be interesting to study; Whether bad teams play even worse in the last few weeks and vise versa. I understand many will bring up kids just to try them out but I mean the whole "phoning it in" argument.

---

Yeah... I can't prove it happens. But, it stands to reason that a team that is fighting for a playoff spot (or in the Brewers case, breaking a horrid streak of losing), would play with much more intensity and focus than a team that has run out of goals. Now maybe intensity doesn't account for as much in baseball as it does in other sports, but I'll believe that it creates an advantage until shown otherwise.

 

If someone (much less lazy than mehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) would like to take a stab at looking into that, it might be interesting.

[UndraftedFA]

How bad do you think the Pirates are going to want to keep themselves from being the only team with 13 losing seasons. I think both teams are going to be going hard. I hope we do some good damage against the Reds. Regardless I'm very proud to call myself a Brewer fan. It's fun watching a team that has a payroll handicap work it's way back up. Go get 'em boys!

[rluzinski]

I think most players motivate themselves for individual achievement, if nothing else. They aren't going to not try and hit the ball because they aren't making the playoffs.