Final Record Probabilites - Final Thoughts

[scoop53714]

What were the chances of KC losing 18 in a row?

[bjamesw22]

...or the Brewers winning however many in a row last year.

[rluzinski]

What were the chances of KC losing 18 in a row?

 

Not high, which is why 18+ losing streak have happened, what, 4 times? So I guess once every 25 years http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[J Brew Crew1]

R Luzinski

 

Great Post but... "What about all that 'one in a million talk?'"

From Dumb and Dumber, sorry

 

But seriously folks. I agree with R's posts about the probablility that the Brewers make the playoffs. Everything must fall just right for the Crew to win the wild card. You can do the math every different way but the W and L's and the games back and the numbers of teams back don't add up to a good chance for the wild card.

 

That being said, I believe. I am officially admitting to having drank the Kool Aid. I think it can happen. It probably won't but I am hoping and cheering.

 

A buddy of mine, that I went to opening day at Wrigley years ago, pointed out to me that the best thing about opening day was the bunting draped all over the park. I was confused. He said if everything goes right during the season, you get to see in again in the playoffs. I guess that what we all are hoping for.

 

J

[rluzinski]

Updated 8/24:

 

81-81: 63.3%

82-80: 50.1%

87-75: 4.4%

89-73: 0.8%

 

Let's get that win this afternoon!

[rluzinski]

Baseball Prospectus has added a link to their "postseason odds" page, showing a day-to-day odds for the whole season:

 

LINK

 

The Brewers had almost a 29% chance to make the post season at one point. Ugh.

[Member]

Given the records of our opponets here on out, I'll predict 79-83 as the final record.

[hawing]

Given the records of our opponents here on out, I'll predict 79-83 as the final record.

 

Sounds plausible.

 

Mine isn't a probability, but a dream: they get to 81 wins, and do it on September 29, Mark Attanasio's birthday. I'll be there for it (whether that's the day or not).

[1992casey]

This question has rarely popped up. What is the probability of the Brewers finishing 2nd in the NL Central?

[endaround]

Same as them getting the Wild Card or just slightly higher. Figure about 86-87 wins for second.

[rluzinski]

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/renrec97.gif

[bjamesw22]

Given the records of our opponets here on out, I'll predict 79-83 as the final record.

 

You looked at the records and THEN came to that conclusion? That the Brewers would play less than .500 the rest of the way only playing 2 teams with a winning record?

 

I am going to say they will go 83-79.

 

I just can't believe that chart. There is only a 41.2% chance that the Brewers will play 3 games better than .500 the rest of the way with the schedule they have left? I would be willing to go out on a limb and say the Brewers have one of the top 5 easiest schedules in MLB the rest of the way.

[Member]

That prediction came about after Saturday's game vs. the Pads, and was based on both home/road records, overall records and run scoring.

[igor67]

I think you misread the chart a little bit bjames. If Rluzinski did his math right the brewers have that 42% chance of finishing at .500. Plus the 26% chance of finishing at 82 wins, plus the 14% of 83 wins... So the real probability of finishing at .500 or above is over 70%. That seems a little high to me. I guess my expectation would be a little closer to a 40% chance of finishing at .500 and roughly 30% above .500 and 30% below.

[ja002h]

So the real probability of finishing at .500 or above is over 70%

 

I'm not sure it works like that though, because you could also add 42% + P(80) + P(79) + ... and get an equally high number for the chance that they won't have a winning record.

[endaround]

The chart shows the probability of the given record or better. Though I think the math might be wrong since a 15% change in probability in the one game (from 81 to 82) is big compared to the other changes (assmuming Russ didn't update his winning % as the reord changes)

[rluzinski]

Sorry for the confusion. Those probabilities are to finish at that record or better.

 

My probabilities use the pythagorean records (found with runs scored and runs against) and adjust for home/road. I fudge it a bit by finsing the average probability to win a single game for the rest of the year (based on a weighted average of the remaining schedule). I come up with a probability of 52%, which is actually pretty high. A team that wins 52% of their games for a whole year wins 84 games.

 

It's misleading to say that because the Brewers only play 2 teams with a winning record to justify that they have an easy schedule remaining. First of all, the Brewers play those 2 teams 9 times, out of the reminaing 22. So 41% of our remaining games are against 2 very good teams, Houston and St Louis. Of course, we play some very bad teams as well, hence the 52% number.

[rluzinski]

As I've mentioned earlier in this thread, I was fudging my numbers a little by averaging single game probabilities and using the average to calculate final records. I finally got around to getting the real numbers and they are significantly different (and better).

 

I ran 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (19 games) for the Brewers. It should probably be closer to 50,000+ to get a more accurate number, but my numbers seem to be within maybe .3%, so good enough for me. Here they are:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo.gif

 

The first column is the number of wins (out of the 19 remaining games) the Brewers would theoretically get. The second column is how many times out of the 10,000 simulations that the Brewers won that many games. The last coumn shows the percent of times the Brewers won that many or more games.

 

My only warning is that these numbers don't take into account our ace pitcher being lost for the season. If Helling reverts back to his crappy AAA form, you can throw these numbers out the window.

 

EDIT: I had made a huge error in my previous first post of my simulation. I was using the probability of beating Arizona for ALL the games, which obviously helped the Brewers ALOT. The probabilities have been updated.

[bjamesw22]

My only warning is that these numbers don't take into account our ace pitcher being lost for the season.

 

Let me say that I believe are chances are VERY bleak. But those numbers don't take a lot of other things into account also.

 

I will hold to my prediction that the crew will be 83-79 when all is said and done.

[gbpacker40]

If we finish with a winning record, I think sales will go up astronomically next year for season tickets and total attendance. Especially if we get a top flight pitcher (Burnett, Morris, Millwood). We have a 1st basemen in the wings that will come close to if not doing better than Overbay this year in the Prince. Plus we have Overbay we can use for trade bait as well as Ohka, possibly Clark and Hall as well. That should net us some nice returns in the process. Not to mention we will hopefully have Weeks and Hardy be more consistent and better hitters next year. If we can somehow minimize the streakiness of Lee and Jenkins then I say we will have a helluva offense next year. Projecting current players it seems pretty potent already......

 

Clark

Hardy

Weeks

Fielder

Lee

Jenkins

Hall

Miller

Pitcher

 

Rough order, you can certainly have many options of how this could be laid out.

[scoop53714]

Keep in mind that no one knows what it will take to win the WC. It could be 87 wins or it could be 84. We just dont know. I dont think anyone is going to seperate from the pack and it might come down to 3 or 4 teams tied with 85 wins.

[gbpacker40]

Good point Scoop, so what are the outcomes if we do come in a 3 way tie at say 85 wins. What are the tie breaker procedures and etc? For the sake of arguement ill use Florida, Astros and Us as the 3 teams with 85 wins.

[rluzinski]

But those numbers don't take a lot of other things into account also.

 

They are based on runs scored and runs given up of all the teams involved. I think that takes into account alot without making a bunch of subjective decisions. The reason I pointed out Sheets is because he certainly contributed to keeping the Brewers "runs against" down.

 

Keep in mind that no one knows what it will take to win the WC. It could be 87 wins or it could be 84

 

For the Brewers to win the wildcard with 84 wins:

 

Houston: 7-13

Florida: 7-12

Philli: 8-11

 

This thread is about defining the probability of certain things happening, not to define what is impossible. While the above is not impossible, it certainly is improbable.

 

So much talk of teams beating themselves up, but in the end the wildcard team will have 88+ wins, like they do every year.

[Schlitz001]

Your stats are always nice to have, luz. If you had run the simulation 50,000 times we may have gotten that 1 tally toward going 19-0. (Talk about getting your hopes up.)

[rluzinski]

Updated for 9/14 Game:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo18.gif

 

I found a sizable error in my first attempt, causing higher probabilities . Everything is working good now.