COVID-19 Thread

[homer]

Where are you getting your numbers? Just curious because I'm seeing Germany at 5 today and 10 yesterday.

[JosephC]

Well you are all DOOMED now. I broke quarantine today. 50% of Criterion titles sale at Barnes and Noble started today. This is the first time in three months that I have been in a building other than my home, my workplace, the one grocery store I go to once every two weeks. No, I'm not kidding. Yeah, it was wonderful getting out and picking through those Blu-rays. So when those big spikes happen in Dane County two weeks from now, you'll know where they came from.

 

Now I'm thinking totally crazy thoughts and may have a pizza delivered to my residence tomorrow night!

[DHonks]

Where are you getting your numbers? Just curious because I'm seeing Germany at 5 today and 10 yesterday.

 

WorldOmeters had Germany at 433 new cases and 10 new deaths reported today. France at 621 and 14. That's been my primary source since the beginning of March

[CheezWizHed]

Where are you getting your numbers? Just curious because I'm seeing Germany at 5 today and 10 yesterday.

 

WorldOmeters had Germany at 433 new cases and 10 new deaths reported today. France at 621 and 14. That's been my primary source since the beginning of March

 

I was simply using Google's numbersfor a while, but they stopped showing Europe's daily totals.

 

So I went to Europe's Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and downloaded the numbers. I might like statistics a bit too much...

 

Looking at the numbers again, I was wrong about Germany. They are in the 2-12/day range this past month. France was worse. They had two days of zero, but otherwise, 13-30/day for July. Sorry, I was generalizing too much.

[reillymcshane]

Here's the worldometer site:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Easy to use.

[homer]

re: schools

 

Interesting article. Contains some stuff I hadn't thought of pertaining to opening schools. I was also not aware of the research that kids generally don't spread the virus. Would like to read more about that:

https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/covid-19-curve-has-unflattened-fast-now-what?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=curve_unflattening&utm_content=healthblog

 

As school districts make decisions about what to do in a few short weeks, Markel notes that historical research can also help them weigh the costs and benefits. In 1918, the city of Chicago decided to keep schools open, reasoning that children living in poverty or abusive homes were better off in an environment where they could learn and be fed.

 

In fact, he notes that children can be highly effective public health change-makers, as they learn in school the most up-to-date information on how to prevent health problems, and bring that knowledge back home.

 

Back in the early 20th Century, giving schoolchildren toothbrushes and information about the importance of preventing cavities led to better dental hygiene among their parents, too. Similarly, teaching young children the value of buckling their seatbelts in the 1970s helped that practice become widely accepted, and helped bring down the rates of crash deaths and injuries.

 

“Elementary and middle school children are some of the best public health ambassadors we have, if we empower them to feel like they’re helping everyone,” Markel says.

 

Since research to date has suggested that younger children especially don’t tend to spread the virus, especially if they and the adults in their school wear masks, current efforts to reopen safely could once again make schools a teaching place for safe behavior.

 

It goes on to say that this doesn't apply to college-aged students. In fact, the author is very worried about breakouts in cities with college campuses.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I was pretty shocked that UW announced they would be open as early as they did. And also not at all surprised that the author is worried about campuses. Seems like one of the worst imaginable petri dishes for this, to be honest. A population with an invincibility complex, half of which binge drinks 4-5x a week and are not exactly living in spacious quarters.

 

I'm not sure UW could afford to not open though. Given that I know a lot of people involved in the UW System the outlook was bleak before any of this happened. Lots of places are under financial distress without this.

[TURBO]

Half of college kids binge drink 4 - 5 times a week? Binge drink?

 

I think that is probably not very accurate.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it was probably hyperbole...

[homer]

There's no way half of the students binge drink 4 or 5x a week.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Again, it was a hyperbolic remark. Although given the actual definition of 'binge drinking' isn't what most people think it is, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the reality was more like half of the underclassmen binge drink weekly. And live in neighboring 120 sq ft boxes. Not really the ideal melting pot of decision making.

[owbc]

At least at the university I work for there has been a strong push from students/parents to go all online in the fall. And the recent COVID outbreak at frat houses at the other UW in Seattle has only reinforced that. So that's the direction that it's going to go.

 

As for budgeting, things are not as bad as they could be. There is apparently a high demand for college courses since people have nothing better to do. And people are going to accept that there isn't going to be a tuition discount for online classes. The dorms do not make the university much money and if they are closed they won't bleed much cash (no staff to pay).

 

The athletics departments are the ones that are in big trouble. Really, really big trouble. They will try everything to get football games played this fall, but even so, the loss of ticket revenue will be crippling.

[superfly]

Half of college kids binge drink 4 - 5 times a week? Binge drink?

 

I think that is probably not very accurate.

 

I can proudly say I didn’t attend a single party in college. And no I wasn’t a book nerd. Lol

[DHonks]

Half of college kids binge drink 4 - 5 times a week? Binge drink?

 

I think that is probably not very accurate.

 

I can proudly say I didn’t attend a single party in college. And no I wasn’t a book nerd. Lol

 

same for me. helps that I'm a homebody, though.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm pretty sure I remember reading some time ago that the US has the highest % of binge drinkers as well as the largest % of adults who abstain completely.

[stoutdude04]

I don't know the exact number, but isnt the number of drinks for binge drinking like...5?

 

My friends and I would have fit in that group of the 4 to 5 days a week.

[MrTPlush]

I think the technical definition commonly used is 5+ drinks for a guy or 4+ for a girl in a 2 hour period. Pretty much getting drunk to where you can’t legally drive quickly.

 

I’d say the risk of an infection rate explosion in college towns is pretty concerning. Not only will they heavily commingle with each other, but they will also hit up the bars where older adults will be that will then transfer it to home/work. It’s a bad melting pot and you also have to consider where those students go back home to. Many live in more rural areas or far from local to the college.

 

On the topic of college drinking I was always familiar with having parties right before a break as a one last time before we leave thing...or to have that holiday party for whatever was coming up. So you basically have all these kids infecting each other and then going home before they will ever show symptoms. Having in class college this year is probably not going to be looked back on all the great in retrospect. Maybe they don’t have much of a choice, but it’s probably not going to help the cause to fighting COVID.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I was talking to a dean at one of the state schools yesterday. They explained that the directive to "open" contains a large caveat that it was "to the extent possible." And started to say that the large auditorium type classes are almost definitely not happening. Class structure will be in the WINS system and it's highly likely more will be online than usual. So expect school to open but don't think that means it will be the school we all know.

 

How that impacts who actually goes back to campus and when, I don't know.

[Baldkin]

https://dhsgis.wi.gov/dhs/covid-19/cases/?extent=-9987947.1784%2C5279845.1839%2C-9921294.0897%2C5365454.6556%2C102100

 

Shocked. Truly shocked I tell you that Langdon St and fraternity row is a huge source of cases in Madison currently.

[CheezWizHed]

I know that both UW and Purdue have announced that they will do "normal" school until Thanksgiving, then online through the end of the year. Take the normal holiday break and resume "normal" school after that.

 

That seems like a logical starting place (given they announced it a month ago), with the caveat that they monitor what is going on in area and could make alterations to that plan.

 

For those surprised by how early they announce it, please remember that while you showed up at college and switched from summer-mode to school-mode in a day, it takes a LOT of planning for everyone else to do the same. A lot of supplies to order, preparations, communications... You can't just wait until the last minute to throw it together.

[stoutdude04]

Our district just laid out guidelines for reopening. It is going to be a nightmare.

 

I am legit concerned about subs. They want us to stay home if we have any of the common symptoms(they listed the 8 or so) or if our children have those symptoms. Are they going to give us more sick time? Doubtful. As far as subs, in the past we would have to take the other class and have it be 1 teacher to 36-40 students , but they have ssid no class sharing to limit exposure. It just isnt going to work.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Our district just laid out guidelines for reopening. It is going to be a nightmare.

 

I am legit concerned about subs. They want us to stay home if we have any of the common symptoms(they listed the 8 or so) or if our children have those symptoms. Are they going to give us more sick time? Doubtful. As far as subs, in the past we would have to take the other class and have it be 1 teacher to 36-40 students , but they have ssid no class sharing to limit exposure. It just isnt going to work.

 

A lot of kids have been out and about this summer, but a lot of kids have been in basically total isolation. COVID or not, when these kids all meet again there will be a bunch of illnesses in the fall that aren't COVID. There are every year. That alone with all the fear going around will be an issue in itself. Nightmare is the right word.

[stoutdude04]

Our district just laid out guidelines for reopening. It is going to be a nightmare.

 

I am legit concerned about subs. They want us to stay home if we have any of the common symptoms(they listed the 8 or so) or if our children have those symptoms. Are they going to give us more sick time? Doubtful. As far as subs, in the past we would have to take the other class and have it be 1 teacher to 36-40 students , but they have ssid no class sharing to limit exposure. It just isnt going to work.

 

A lot of kids have been out and about this summer, but a lot of kids have been in basically total isolation. COVID or not, when these kids all meet again there will be a bunch of illnesses in the fall that aren't COVID. There are every year. That alone with all the fear going around will be an issue in itself. Nightmare is the right word.

 

Great point.

 

I then wonder about parents that have to choose. Do I send my kid to school and go to work, or not work?

 

I just read about a parent that came into contact with someone with covid, but she wasnt showing symptoms. Sent her kid to daycare. Lo and behold, she had it and was asymptomatic. Now there was an outbreak at the daycare.

 

If one child or staff member catches it...the school gets shut down and we go right to virtual learning. Going to be a mess trying to connect with kids that havent established that connection with the teacher. You are correct. Nightmare.

[tmwiese55]

Very good point there I didn't really think of. Normal cold/flu is still going to happen, and obviously kids are typically known as big on that stuff, which will lead to everyone having to treat like covid initially and subsequent freaking out that will come with it when a kid is sick. Gonna be a tough route to navigate for everyone involved.

[homer]

I've now seen at least three academic articles that say children rarely transmit Covid both to each other or to adults. I understand that is just one piece of the puzzle and doesn't apply to college kids but should still be considered when discussing whether children should go back to school or not. (to consider: does a high school senior fall into the same category as a 1st grader in terms of virus spread) Here is one of the articles:

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200710100934.htm