COVID-19 Thread

[hawing]

Hear me out in this to stop the spread of COVID we should just build a bunch of human sized hamster balls. If you need to go anywhere you just get in the hamster ball and walk around. Think of it it would cure COVID and diabetes! You could even have these arm sockets that could be made of plastic rubbery stuff and you could grab things with them.

 

PURE GENIOUS RIGHT HERE!!!!!! You can thank me later!

[sarcasm]COVID WOAH SOLVDD[/sarcasm]

[nate82]

I understand that there's a unstated reason why some are focusing so hard on AZ, TX, and FL, but CA is experiencing a similar increase in new infections. It would be good not to ignore it when attempting to determine the cause of the increase.

 

CA state website (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no)

 

Yes, CA is also experiencing a big spike in cases. As is North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc...methinks it's weather-related.

 

The good news is the fatality rate is dropping. Apparently the spike is caused by younger people who are less likely to die. But it has also caused a big spike in hospitalizations in many of the above states. Will it get to the point where they reach bed/resource capacity? Remains to be seen.

 

My fear is that this thing is going to go bonkers again up north come late October.

 

Hypothesis: Warmer weather states will have higher COVID transmission during the summer months while having lower transmission rates during the winter months. The reverse will happen in the colder weather states.

 

This maybe the new norm or how this virus will work.

[homer]

I understand that there's a unstated reason why some are focusing so hard on AZ, TX, and FL, but CA is experiencing a similar increase in new infections. It would be good not to ignore it when attempting to determine the cause of the increase.

 

CA state website (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no)

 

Yes, CA is also experiencing a big spike in cases. As is North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc...methinks it's weather-related.

 

The good news is the fatality rate is dropping. Apparently the spike is caused by younger people who are less likely to die. But it has also caused a big spike in hospitalizations in many of the above states. Will it get to the point where they reach bed/resource capacity? Remains to be seen.

 

My fear is that this thing is going to go bonkers again up north come late October.

 

Hypothesis: Warmer weather states will have higher COVID transmission during the summer months while having lower transmission rates during the winter months. The reverse will happen in the colder weather states.

 

This maybe the new norm or how this virus will work.

 

 

Keep thinking about the weather angle. Is there another country with a similar latitude range like the US has? So is there somewhere else where it's cold/hot in March April in one half of the country and then really warm/cold come June/July in the other half? Looking at a map I guess China fits that description. In the southern hemisphere, I guess Argentina? Chile? Obviously there might be trade winds or something that skews it.

 

OWBC can you help me out?

[SoCalBrewfan]

The spike in California (at least SoCal) seems to be driven mostly by rural and suburban counties:

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-24/4-suburban-california-counties-behind-dangerous-spike-in-covid-19-hospitalizations

 

LA county has some troubling numbers as well. However, don't try to attribute this all to hot weather...it's actually fairly cool in the coastal regions right now; we frequently have a marine layer this time of year sometimes known as 'June gloom' and this year has been particularly cool and grey. On the other hand, anti-mask sentiments in some communities are on the rise, with these stupid get out of mask free cards for example. My friend in Orange County had a guy yell at him at a stop light about wearing a mask (he had just dropped his kid off).

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-27/l-a-county-reports-more-than-2-100-new-coronavirus-cases-and-a-continued-rise-in-hospitalizations

[homer]

Yeah I am not sure it's 100% attributable to temperature. There are certainly a variety of factors.

 

Although I would say that Riverside and San Bernadino typically run hotter at this time of year than LA.

[nate82]

I think you guys are looking at the weather incorrectly. It is not the weather having an impact on the disease it is the impact of the weather on transmitters. For example in Arizona people are not outside during the months of June to September or are out very little and only for short amount of times. From friends and coworkers who live in Florida and Texas they have the similar outcome though I believe they end a month earlier.

 

It is not the weather having an impact on COVID it is the weather having an impact on the transmitters. So in states that have high humidity and excessive heat you tend to see people staying indoors or inside air conditioned buildings. I believe opening up more places like beaches and parks where you can socially distance at a safe distance would be best.

 

To me masks are dumb but I am not going to tell you not to wear one or to wear one. It is your choice to wear one or not to wear one and as long as your safely socially distancing yourself from others I don't see a problem with someone not wearing a mask. In places like bars or restaurants that are packed to capacity I find it dumb to be wearing a mask as you are not getting any kind of protection by wearing a mask in that situation.

[PeaveyFury]

It is your choice to wear one or not to wear one and as long as your safely socially distancing yourself from others I don't see a problem with someone not wearing a mask.

 

I think the issue with this, especially with the part bolded above, is that they're primarily beneficial in cases where social distancing isn't practically possible (grocery stores, indoor meetings, etc. But anecdotically, If you're not wearing one, it seems that you're likely not wearing one regardless of whether it's safe to do so or not.

 

To me masks are dumb but I am not going to tell you not to wear one or to wear one. It is your choice to wear one or not to wear one and as long as your safely socially distancing yourself from others I don't see a problem with someone not wearing a mask. In places like bars or restaurants that are packed to capacity I find it dumb to be wearing a mask as you are not getting any kind of protection by wearing a mask in that situation.

 

I think the point that you're missing is that if everyone was wearing a mask, transmission is reduced substantially. Wearing a mask yourself dramatically drops the possibility of YOU transmitting to others, but you need the others to wear a mask as well to prevent transmission to you.

 

As such, not wearing a mask is a self-centered choice, and astoundingly puzzling as to why it has become such a hotbed item in all of this.

[nate82]

 

As such, not wearing a mask is a self-centered choice, and astoundingly puzzling as to why it has become such a hotbed item in all of this.

 

So is wearing a mask it is a self-centered choice. You may substitute your reasoning that it is for the common good but in reality you are just trying to save yourself and the ones you love. So you are still self-centered on your choice.

[PeaveyFury]

 

As such, not wearing a mask is a self-centered choice, and astoundingly puzzling as to why it has become such a hotbed item in all of this.

 

So is wearing a mask it is a self-centered choice. You may substitute your reasoning that it is for the common good but in reality you are just trying to save yourself and the ones you love. So you are still self-centered on your choice.

 

That's not really correct, though, since the reduction for wearing a mask yourself is virtually nil. Those that are wearing them are preventing themselves from spreading it to others.

 

If someone is wearing the mask and thinking it's for their own benefit, they don't understand the actual reason for wearing it.

[nate82]

 

If someone is wearing the mask and thinking it's for their own benefit, they don't understand the actual reason for wearing it.

 

Again you are just justifying why you wear a mask and why the person who doesn't is evil for not following what you feel is right.

[PeaveyFury]

 

If someone is wearing the mask and thinking it's for their own benefit, they don't understand the actual reason for wearing it.

 

Again you are just justifying why you wear a mask and why the person who doesn't is evil for not following what you feel is right.

 

By using scientific statistics to choose to act in a way that primarily benefits others?

 

I guess I can't agree with the logic that your rationale somehow makes that a self-centered choice, since that's virtually the definition of selfless, rather than selfish.

 

If your point is that some people wearing masks incorrectly think that the mask is for their own benefit, I agree completely. But the above takes quite a bit of a leap for me.

[gebc1997]

In my opinion, when all the data a studies of this are done, it is going to be concluded that this was a largely shared ventilation situation. I have a guy feeling that 80 plus percent of all spreading of this is of people in the same large buildings sharing a ventilation system .

[OldSchoolSnapper]

 

As such, not wearing a mask is a self-centered choice, and astoundingly puzzling as to why it has become such a hotbed item in all of this.

 

So is wearing a mask it is a self-centered choice. You may substitute your reasoning that it is for the common good but in reality you are just trying to save yourself and the ones you love. So you are still self-centered on your choice.

 

You're losing me here. A disproportionate number of Asians have been wearing the masks in airports (in the US) for a long time and it's because they don't want to spread an illness. Like most Asian cultures, it's seen as a courtesy to others, and being courteous to others is objective #1 in those cultures. It's not something you necessarily do for yourself or to 'save yourself'.

 

I generally don't wear the mask unless forced to, but I'm not seeing the equivalency or wearing vs. not wearing both being "self centered."

 

I don't wear the mask unless I have to because they're mildly annoying, and it's a completely self-centered choice. If I wore one it's almost certainly a courtesy to others.

 

In my defense though I haven't really done a lot of indoor activities in which most people would wear them. My wife does all the shopping.

[homer]

I think you guys are looking at the weather incorrectly. It is not the weather having an impact on the disease it is the impact of the weather on transmitters. For example in Arizona people are not outside during the months of June to September or are out very little and only for short amount of times. From friends and coworkers who live in Florida and Texas they have the similar outcome though I believe they end a month earlier.

 

 

 

I stated earlier I thought it had to do with people staying indoors. It's not the temperature itself.

[nate82]

 

By using scientific statistics to choose to act in a way that primarily benefits others?

 

I guess I can't agree with the logic that your rationale somehow makes that a self-centered choice, since that's virtually the definition of selfless, rather than selfish.

 

If your point is that some people wearing masks incorrectly think that the mask is for their own benefit, I agree completely. But the above takes quite a bit of a leap for me.

 

The percentages don't matter as it is how you view everything. The reason why both are self-centered is because you are thinking this is the right way that is why it is self-centered. No matter the outcome and no matter the reason you put behind it, it is still self-centered. You believe what you are doing is right while the person not wearing the mask is thinking they are doing what is right.

 

Basically you are being self-centered because you only see your side of the view and not the other persons view.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Wearing a mask is saying, hey, I'm willing to be uncomfortable as long as it's for the greater good. I hate wearing masks...they pull at my weird old man ears and fog up my glasses if they don't fit right...sometimes even if they do. I do it not to protect myself, not to look cool, not because I'm taking a political position, but to protect the community in case I caught the bug and don't know it yet. It's not for me, it's for the restaurant and grocery workers who are stuck in a place with people coming in and out, wondering which one might be sick and not know it. For my elderly relatives when I visit who would be hit hard by the bug. If I'm lucky, it does nothing except make me uncomfortable and fog my damn glasses.

 

I honestly thought it was stupid at one time, even remember joking with my dental hygienist about it in very early March. And who knows, maybe the data will show the masks had a minimal effect in the end. But places with masks beat this thing, and the US didn't, and we need all the help we can get right now, so I strap on the stupid mask. Have I mentioned that it fogs my glasses?

[reillymcshane]

so I strap on the stupid mask. Have I mentioned that it fogs my glasses?

Feel your pain, my friend. I've read you need a better fitting mask - one that covers the top part tightly so your breath doesn't escape upwards.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Oh, yeah, and it's very likely that indoor vs outdoor is a big deal, and situations where people (gross) fill the air with droplets (singing, talking loud, eating and drinking). So there's some reason to believe it's not the beaches or rallies that are super spreader events, it's bars and parties and choir practices and church services.

 

That might help to explain Riverside, San Bernardino, and Imperial counties, where it's ugly hot and people are seeking AC, just like in Arizona or Florida or Texas. LA and Orange County have no such excuse right now. (Come to think of it, inland parts of LA county are also hot, it's a really big county that could easily be its own state...I haven't seen a breakdown by zip code or anything.)

[PeaveyFury]

 

By using scientific statistics to choose to act in a way that primarily benefits others?

 

I guess I can't agree with the logic that your rationale somehow makes that a self-centered choice, since that's virtually the definition of selfless, rather than selfish.

 

If your point is that some people wearing masks incorrectly think that the mask is for their own benefit, I agree completely. But the above takes quite a bit of a leap for me.

 

The percentages don't matter as it is how you view everything. The reason why both are self-centered is because you are thinking this is the right way that is why it is self-centered. No matter the outcome and no matter the reason you put behind it, it is still self-centered. You believe what you are doing is right while the person not wearing the mask is thinking they are doing what is right.

 

Basically you are being self-centered because you only see your side of the view and not the other persons view.

 

Sorry, I’ll just say I disagree and think the theory here is a stretch.

[tmwiese55]

Our trends and comps to Europe look so much worse though, no way around that data I can come up with.

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Look at confirmed case fatality rate - the US sits between Liberia and Indonesia, 31st in the world despite having by far the most confirmed COVID-related deaths. European nations are all over the top 10-20 countries in that stat, because aside from Germany they really haven't widely expanded their testing to the degree the United States has.

 

The case count spike seen in parts of the US is tied directly to testing people 50 yrs and under as part of a widescale return to work initiative over the past month-6 weeks. With the exception of Germany, european countries really haven't embarked on wide scale testing for their younger populations, particularly on a per capita basis.

 

It's easy to keep case counts from spiking when you don't bother testing...Austria sure has it down

 

https://news.yahoo.com/almost-half-virus-hit-austria-ski-resort-antibodies-165114333.html

 

Not quite. I said trends, so I meant right now. Your testing point US vs EU has been debunked. Quick summary from roughly a week ago. EU has roughly 100 mil more people than USA. EU/USA are testing basically the same number of people per million. We have been getting something like 8x as many new cases (per million, I think). And it sure seems the last week would've widened this gap even more. I can't get a way around this other than whatever they've been doing seems a heck of a lot better than what we've been doing.

 

Also, I can't get my head around the argument that dong something for the greater community good is also selfish because greater good also benefits you. I guess there is a logic to it, but it just seems a really odd argument to make. Especially when in direct comparison to the other option in this case.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Our trends and comps to Europe look so much worse though, no way around that data I can come up with.

we

Look at confirmed case fatality rate - the US sits between Liberia and Indonesia, 31st in the world despite having by far the most confirmed COVID-related deaths. European nations are all over the top 10-20 countries in that stat, because aside from Germany they really haven't widely expanded their testing to the degree the United States has.

 

The case count spike seen in parts of the US is tied directly to testing people 50 yrs and under as part of a widescale return to work initiative over the past month-6 weeks. With the exception of Germany, european countries really haven't embarked on wide scale testing for their younger populations, particularly on a per capita basis.

 

It's easy to keep case counts from spiking when you don't bother testing...Austria sure has it down

 

https://news.yahoo.com/almost-half-virus-hit-austria-ski-resort-antibodies-165114333.html

 

Not quite. I said trends, so I meant right now. Your testing point US vs EU has been debunked. Quick summary from roughly a week ago. EU has roughly 100 mil more people than USA. EU/USA are testing basically the same number of people per million. We have been getting something like 8x as many new cases (per million, I think). And it sure seems the last week would've widened this gap even more. I can't get a way around this other than whatever they've been doing seems a heck of a lot better than what we've been doing.

 

Also, I can't get my head around the argument that dong something for the greater community good is also selfish because greater good also benefits you. I guess there is a logic to it, but it just seems a really odd argument to make. Especially when in direct comparison to the other option in this case.

 

Some of the justification that the "non-mask" crowd is using to support their argument is pretty crazy.

 

Personally, I hate wearing a mask. I broke my nose several times as a child, and I've had issues with being able to take full breaths through my nose ever since. But you know what ... I still do it when I know I'm going to be in an indoor public area. Simply because it's the right thing to do. I rarely wear it much outdoors, but in Northern Wisconsin it is quite easy to keep social distance when you are outside.

 

People should be wearing them indoors. I'm not going to publicly shame someone for not wearing one, though, just as I would hope that they won't publicly shame me for choosing to wear one. I do believe that if we have any hope of getting back to "normal" before mid-2021, it would be a good idea to start enforce mask ordinances. Otherwise forget any normalcy till that vaccine is readily available.

[homer]

The other thing with a mask is that not only does it prevent you from getting your droplets on other people but it reduces how much you spray onto objects and surfaces.

[TURBO]

By this time, I think it is impossible to change the minds of those who wear masks, and those who don't wear masks.

 

The information is out there, and you can find information that backs up both sides if you really want to.

 

I don't think this is all political, I think it is just a choice, which could be affected by your political stance, but not in all cases.

 

I'm not a democrat (but my wife is), but my wife and I wear a mask every time we are in public (which isn't very often, only to get groceries basically). So to say the non mask wearers are all conservatives is false. I also know some democrats that won't wear a mask. so again, I think it is just people making personal decisions, some better than others...

 

[Boomer5]

What exactly are we trying to accomplish right now? I haven't heard "flatten the curve" in months. It seems like there is no clear end game here and everyone's opinion of how things are going is dictated by their own politics.

 

Election year hijinx.

 

We can’t stop the transmission of a virus, even with a vaccine or mask. We knew people would get it once it reached our shores.

 

We flattened the curve at a massive and still yet to be calculated total cost.

 

Herd immunity seems to be the only rational solution to any virus. There is no ideal fix for this but putting so many people out of work isn’t viable.

[tmwiese55]

Sure seems the fixes Europe did are working as of now. I guess we'll see what happens when they re-open more, but seems a big stretch to just put up our arms and give up when so many other countries are not having the problem we're having.