COVID-19 Thread

[LouisEly]

I'm thinking of the Chinese and Thai restaurants around the corner from me that I get takeout from. And for your scenario, that's only four people. Compared to most occupations, that's a small number.

 

You're a lot less likely to get COVID-19 from a take-out restaurant than you are from a grocery store, which has hundreds if not thousands of people coming through it on a daily basis.

[JackNicholson1974]

I have a trip planned to New Mexico the last week of May. Should I take measures to cancel that now? The news media keeps stating that this is “the new normal” for many months to come,

I would want to get a refund on my credit card statement for flights, rental car, etc before the bills comes due next month.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I have to ask if you any of you still saying this is an overreaction know any nurses or doctors. I do, and they are all describing nightmares at work already.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's a fallacy and a bias to think that a restaurant chef is more likely to have COVID-19 than you do. If anything, they are less likely as they are not traveling for work or coming into contact with lots of different people at work. For most chefs, they are grabbing the food out of storage themselves, preparing it themselves, putting it on a plate or in a container, and then placing it on a counter for someone else to pick up and give to you. They rarely hand the food directly off to a server, and like others have said, the cooking process will kill most of the viruses. That occupation is among the lowest in terms of the number of other people they come into contact with while working, and sanitary conditions in a commercial kitchen are far, far higher than just about everybody's home or work.

 

Probably washing hands 40x more than the average person as well.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I have a trip planned to New Mexico the last week of May. Should I take measures to cancel that now? The news media keeps stating that this is “the new normal” for many months to come,

I would want to get a refund on my credit card statement for flights, rental car, etc before the bills comes due next month.

 

I think you are right on the edge where it might work out OK. I think April is shot. My next flights are in June. I'm worried, but not going to do anything just yet. If you actually can't/don't want to pay the bill, I'd wait until right before you have to. Time is your friend at the moment.

[MrTPlush]

Airline tickets don't start rebounding until June...so I suppose that tells you a little bit how optimistic airlines are about anything before June.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The cash tickets are rebounding in June, but if you have miles with anyone and any confidence in this thing resolving, there's never been a better time to book awards. The availability to just about anywhere is better than I've ever seen even 11 months out.

[Fear The Chorizo]

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-undiagnosed-spread.html

 

This study, if even reasonably accurate on a larger scale, would seem to indicate several things which a good number of people probably already know if they are honest with themselves:

 

1 - The actual number of people who have been infected with the virus to date is much, much higher than the numbers churned out on a daily basis, particularly in highly populated countries with next to no testing protocols for what appears to be the majority of people who simply never become symptomatic. This would indicate the actual denominator is already really quite high. As of this morning there have been over 200K confirmed cases across the world with ~8K Covid-19 - related deaths. Using those two numbers alone gives a death rate of 4%, which is incredibly alarming. Extrapolating the results of the study in the above link even on a conservative basis would multiply the number of infections to roughly 1.2 Million across the globe. Even doubling the deaths to 16,000 to account for unidentified Covid-19 deaths in developing countries would drop the death rate to 1.3%. Sticking with the 8K deaths against 1.2 Million gives it a 0.67% death rate. This estimate actually closely matches the number South Korea has developed for coronavirus after completing what is probably the most rigorous testing program any country has undertaken to date - their figure is a 0.65% death rate. Those numbers are good news, however even that decrease means the disease is markedly more deadly than the run of the mill flu for the disproportionate populations it seems to target with severe cases - primarily because humans don't have any immunity to it and those with fragile health systems don't have the ability to fight it off.

 

2 - The likelihood that any sort of travel bans or social distancing of general populations of people will lead to preventing this virus from spreading everywhere eventually is unrealistic knowing roughly 80% of the people who get the disease don't ever know they had it in the absence of being tested for it. It can definitely slow the spread, particularly to at risk populations of people, which is what we're attempting to do now to manage the curve for the severe cases that require significant medical attention so the whole system doesn't crash and we see widespread unnecessary death in the elderly and medically fragile populations due to inadequate care/supplies. That's why keeping EVERYONE as isolated as possible for 2-3 weeks is imperative - let the virus work its way through everyone it's already infected. If people who "feel fine" are all out and about interacting with others the next two weeks, odds are pretty much 100% that rate of new infections will remain high and the need for extended isolation and economic pain will be necessary.

 

The other critical item is to expand testing, which should finally start happening this week in some countries. If the US ramps up its testing and gets even a few hundred thousand people tested in their hot spot areas (Washington, New York, Bay Area, Florida, etc), we should get a much better handle on the true denominator and also get a better understanding of how to tailor some of these restrictions to better protect those that have the highest risk of developing a significant case of Covid-19 until documented new cases plummet.

[reillymcshane]

Now the latest news that no more sit-down restaurants or bars. I'm getting to feel this is trending into over reaction territory. Convince me I'm wrong.

 

I was at the Workforce Development Center in Pewaukee this afternoon to see that they were to shut down at 5 pm today. So all these suddenly unemployed people have one less resource at their disposal.

 

My good friend was furloughed from Famous Dave's this morning. Already had plans to have lunch with him tomorrow, so will see how he is doing.

 

I was talking to my massage therapist last week and he has a son who has a background in biology/genetics. According to him, COVID-19 pales in comparison to the Swine Flu, and we didn't have all these precautions with the Swine Flu. Take it for what it's worth.

The Swine Flu had a mortality rate of 0.02%. Roughly 60 million people in the United States got H1N1 (around 20%), and about 12,500 died. It spread easily and quickly - but the fatality rate was not high. If I'm right, the death rate for seasonal flu is 0.1% - which is higher.

 

Estimates for the death rate for COVID-19 have been running between 1.5% and 3.0%.

 

Let's say that 20% of the population gets infected like in 2009 - that's roughly 65M people. Based upon the above death rate, that equals a death toll of about 1-2 million people.

 

Of course, maybe the infection rate will be much lower - say 10%. Well, that's still 500,000-1,000,000 dead.

 

And perhaps with all that has been learned, the death rate won't be as high.

 

If 10% of the US population gets the disease, and it has a 1% death rate - that's still 325,000 dead.

 

My wife is an exec at for a healthcare system. She's terrified of what it could do.

 

Thanks Reilly, I wish I could "like" this a million times. This is exactly why this is such a big deal and is freaking scary as hell when you look at those numbers and that's exactly what we are heading for, slowly but surely. It's like a car crash is slow motion, with not much you can do about it, and people complain that they can't "live their lives"

My wife says she feels like she's watching a tidal wave coming towards her in slo motion.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Makes me think of when I came back from Vegas after Super Bowl weekend and I experienced several symptoms for 3-4 days that now check boxes but weren’t known then.... slightly elevated temperature (99°), mild throat irritation, muscle/joint weakness and fatigue, chills at night, etc. once the US has an anti-bodies test, I’d like to check it out as I’m curious.

 

I think there's a decent chance I got it, had symptoms exactly like these, was in Boston end of February and have mingled with tons of people since then including students at a large public university where I teach and spectators at a big multi-school HS track meet. These symptoms incidentally perfectly track the doc in Madrid who was tracking his infection, has been mild in the scheme of things but it def sapped my energy for several days. (Also feel like I sweated out quite a few pounds with the chill/sweats at night.) I was told there are very limited tests available so they wouldn't check me unless I checked three boxes, and that even if they tested me nothing much would change, so I should stay home and self-isolate and self-medicate. If what I have is the coronavirus, and again, who really knows, but if it is, there are probably dozens / hundreds / thousands of people just like me spreading it without knowing.

 

Graduation at my university (mid May) is already 'postponed' and I'm starting to think my son's HS graduation (mid June) will be as well. If I had travel planned before June I would get a refund while I could.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks for sharing that, adam. There's always a risk, obviously, but my wife and I have decided to start ordering take out a couple of times a week to help do what we can for local restaurants.

 

There's probably only slightly more risk, if any, of the food preparer passing that to you than having it passed to you from your trip to the grocery store, where an infected person may have touched the door ahead of you, checkout credit card swipe machine, or even the food item you bought when it was being stocked on the shelf or picked up by someone then returned to the shelf when they didn't want it.

I will second this in a huge way. Especially if you have the wherewithal to do such a thing. My wife and I are making it a point to go to local places as much as possible. And I'm talking about locally owned-operated places - not McDonald's or Taco Bell or Wendy's. Those will do fine in the long run, but it's smaller, independent places that are going to be killed by this.

 

I would extend this same thing to coffee shops, local butcher shops, etc. Go there and get what you can from them rather than Starbucks or Pick n Save or wherever. We know some people who started a coffee shop a couple of years ago, and my wife stopped in and bought coffee yesterday. They are so afraid they'll lose everything because of this. It just is heartbreaking to hear this. Good people, hard workers, good product/service. All could be gone.

 

While going out has its risks - if you are smart, you should be good. And besides, go out and do this while you still can. Save all your pasta and frozen food or whatever in case something bad happens - like someone in your house gets sick - and you really have to self isolate for a couple of weeks.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have to ask if you any of you still saying this is an overreaction know any nurses or doctors. I do, and they are all describing nightmares at work already.

 

I don't think it's an overrection. I also think we can't go on this way for months or longer. We're talking about total collapse of our economy, unemployment at 20%...30% who knows. That just can't happen. Focus need to be on how to best insulate the at risk population as best we can, and the rest of us need to move forward.

[adambr2]

I have to ask if you any of you still saying this is an overreaction know any nurses or doctors. I do, and they are all describing nightmares at work already.

 

I'm sure that any case serious enough to get before a doctor and nurse in most cases is going to be pretty ugly as they are only treating the most serious cases of the virus.

 

As far as your question, ask me again in a few months when we are going to be able to better evaluate how many lives have been saved and how devastating of a toll that this took on our economy and how many jobs and well-beings have been lost and lives have been turned upside down, because it's going to be many, many more than just the ones who lost their lives to COVID-19.

 

I'm sure we could save many lives if we reduce the national speed limit to 25 MPH, but it wouldn't come without major secondary consequences. The secondary consequences of essentially shutting down our economy will linger long after COVID-19 becomes an afterthought.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

And COVID19 wouldn't be an afterthought if it cycled through the US and killed 2 million people.

 

The nightmares they are describing have less to do with the severity of cases and more to do with their complete lack of capacity to handle this getting any worse, while simultaneously knowing it's about to do just that.

[pacopete4]

I’d rather be poor and alive than dead.

[homer]

And I'm talking about locally owned-operated places - not McDonald's or Taco Bell or Wendy's. Those will do fine in the long run, but it's smaller, independent places that are going to be killed by this.

 

 

The line at the Wendy's drive through in my neighborhood is like 40 cars deep.

[homer]

I have to ask if you any of you still saying this is an overreaction know any nurses or doctors. I do, and they are all describing nightmares at work already.

 

I don't think it's an overrection. I also think we can't go on this way for months or longer. We're talking about total collapse of our economy, unemployment at 20%...30% who knows. That just can't happen. Focus need to be on how to best insulate the at risk population as best we can, and the rest of us need to move forward.

 

That would involve mass testing and we seem to be behind the curve on that.

[homer]

I’d rather be poor and alive than dead.

 

Yeah I mean what's the other option? Let the virus run it's course?

[owbc]

I'm out of patience for the leadership on this. It's inexcusable. Why has testing not been figured out yet? We know that the way out of this is more testing, so why are we so far behind everyone else in testing?

 

The social isolation is completely destroying the economy. It can't continue. We need to be testing like crazy and we need a plan for spinning up the economy again. Otherwise more people are going to die from the economic collapse than the virus.

[adambr2]

I’d rather be poor and alive than dead.

 

Yeah I mean what's the other option? Let the virus run it's course?

 

I get all that and I don't know what the other options are. The other option should have been to be better prepared for this, beginning with the healthcare industry so that we could have begun mass testing a month ago, quarantined just high risk groups and not gone to such drastic measures.

 

Look what South Korea is doing. They got right on mass testing and quarantines and appear to have their COVID-19 problem nipped in the budd in a matter of a couple weeks. They were ready for this, we were not. A couple weeks of this would have been just a blip on the radar of history, not an economic catastrophe.

 

I just can't imagine the economic damage to the country if this is the norm for 6 months, 8 months, whatever. It goes well beyond just people being poor but alive.

[reillymcshane]

A single nursing home in Spain has had 17 deaths in 5 days.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-nursinghome/madrid-prosecutors-probe-case-of-17-coronavirus-deaths-in-single-nursing-home-idUSKBN2151Y1

 

This is the scariest thing. The death rate amongst the elderly and vulnerable has been quite high.

[adambr2]

I'm out of patience for the leadership on this. It's inexcusable. Why has testing not been figured out yet? We know that the way out of this is more testing, so why are we so far behind everyone else in testing?

 

The social isolation is completely destroying the economy. It can't continue. We need to be testing like crazy and we need a plan for spinning up the economy again. Otherwise more people are going to die from the economic collapse than the virus.

 

Yeah I mean every day we hear okay, we're floating this idea, we're going to send Americans checks but we don't know the details yet, this is stalled in the Senate, etc etc.

 

I'm not going to make this political, just saying they need to figure it the hell out like now. This is not the time for the typical sluggish bureaucratic process and anyone dragging this out should have their named dragged through the mud the next time voters go to the polls.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm out of patience for the leadership on this. It's inexcusable. Why has testing not been figured out yet? We know that the way out of this is more testing, so why are we so far behind everyone else in testing?

 

The social isolation is completely destroying the economy. It can't continue. We need to be testing like crazy and we need a plan for spinning up the economy again. Otherwise more people are going to die from the economic collapse than the virus.

 

Yeah I mean every day we hear okay, we're floating this idea, we're going to send Americans checks but we don't know the details yet, this is stalled in the Senate, etc etc.

 

I'm not going to make this political, just saying they need to figure it the hell out like now. This is not the time for the typical sluggish bureaucratic process and anyone dragging this out should have their named dragged through the mud the next time voters mail their ballots.

 

FTFY

[jerichoholicninja]

I have to ask if you any of you still saying this is an overreaction know any nurses or doctors. I do, and they are all describing nightmares at work already.

 

As with all people you'll get a wide variety of answers. My mom's a retired nurse and she has been nothing but eyerolls since this all began. Finds the lengths we're going to be laughable, stupid, and annoying. She was actually just telling me she ran into some former co-workers who are still working at the hospital. Because of cancelling all the elective surgeries most of the staff has nothing to do so they're having them screen in the ER, where they are also doing much of nothing.

 

My wife is a physical therapist and they have no more patients in the hospital than usual. The nightmare her and the other departments in her clinic are facing is that almost all appointments have been cancelled. There's no work to do.

 

I get it, this is serious and in some places it may be a borderline disaster, but let's not make this to be a zombie apocalypse and you're going to die by simply stepping outside your house. Wash your hands, stay away from older and sick people as best you can, limit your social interaction, and wash your hands again.

[homer]

I am not trusting anyone's take on this unless they are a doctor that works in infectious disease....or Dr. Dre