COVID-19 Thread

[LouisEly]

Really odd thing happening here in Kentucky. I've noticed that even though KY restaurants can now open inside dining with 33% of capacity. Many of the fast food places here still have haven't opened there dining rooms, still drive thru only. The rumor floating here is they will not reopen inside until 100% capacity can happen again. Kinda glad they are doing it because I went in a little Mexican cantina and the food was just fantastic! Wondering how other states are proceeding?

Costs money to clean the dining room/restrooms, take out that garbage, stock the napkins/straws/soda machine/paper towel/toilet paper, etc., and if they're getting just as much business via the drive thru - or close enough that the added revenue isn't worth the extra costs - then there is no incentive to reopen the dining area.

[homer]

Supply shortages were the reason our government opted not to promote the use of masks to curb the early spread of covid-19.

 

https://www.thestreet.com/video/dr-fauci-masks-changing-directive-coronavirus

 

"Well, the reason for that is that we were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, including the N95 masks and the surgical masks, were in very short supply. And we wanted to make sure that the people namely, the health care workers, who were brave enough to put themselves in a harm way, to take care of people who you know were infected with the coronavirus and the danger of them getting infected."

[adambr2]

Studies continue to show a staggeringly low fatality rate for COVID-19 in relation to what was originally speculated. This study estimates an infection fatality rate of .05 in individuals under 70, which is quite comparable with seasonal flu.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2

[Machu Peach]

Supply shortages were the reason our government opted not to promote the use of masks to curb the early spread of covid-19.

 

https://www.thestreet.com/video/dr-fauci-masks-changing-directive-coronavirus

 

"Well, the reason for that is that we were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, including the N95 masks and the surgical masks, were in very short supply. And we wanted to make sure that the people namely, the health care workers, who were brave enough to put themselves in a harm way, to take care of people who you know were infected with the coronavirus and the danger of them getting infected."

 

This is deeply concerning to me. There are numerous examples of public health officials going far beyond "opt[ing] not to promote the use of masks" and directly saying that masks were mostly ineffective or symbolic. At least one reasonable interpretation is that they intentionally mislead people to save PPE for healthcare workers. That might even be an arguably correct path, but the cost of knowingly lying is that people trust you less each time you do it.

 

Given how critically important public buy-in is to public health initiatives I think that anything that harms public-health credibility is ultimately going to have a massive negative effect. Given how staggeringly inconsistent, overly-alarmist, and hypocritical the messaging from public health officials and media has been I actually understand peoples' frustrations. If a second lockdown is needed I fear there will be massive non-compliance by a large group of people as a result of this abysmally bad messaging.

[homer]

Some good news on the treatment front:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/06/16/coronavirus-drug-steroid-dexamethasone-reduce-covid-deaths/3197420001/

 

Hopefully this works out better than hyrdroxychloroquine:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/06/15/coronavirus-fda-pulls-emergency-use-hydroxychloroquine-covid/3191671001/

[hawing]

Regarding the 2020-2021 school year, some universities are considering having mostly in-person instruction until Thanksgiving, and then moving to online for the rest of fall semester. (It was mentioned in a virtual meeting I participated in last week and I don't remember if school names were mentioned.)

 

That would avert the annual germ exchange that tends to hit post-secondary education between Thanksgiving and the end of the calendar year.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Regarding the 2020-2021 school year, some universities are considering having mostly in-person instruction until Thanksgiving, and then moving to online for the rest of fall semester. (It was mentioned in a virtual meeting I participated in last week and I don't remember if school names were mentioned.)

 

That would avert the annual germ exchange that tends to hit post-secondary education between Thanksgiving and the end of the calendar year.

 

Do you think this is solely for health and safety or to make sure colleges collect the money from college football season.

[homer]

Regarding the 2020-2021 school year, some universities are considering having mostly in-person instruction until Thanksgiving, and then moving to online for the rest of fall semester. (It was mentioned in a virtual meeting I participated in last week and I don't remember if school names were mentioned.)

 

That would avert the annual germ exchange that tends to hit post-secondary education between Thanksgiving and the end of the calendar year.

 

Do you think this is solely for health and safety or to make sure colleges collect the money from college football season.

 

I think that depends on whether or not fans are allowed at the games. That hasn't been determined yet.

[CheezWizHed]

Some good news on the treatment front:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/06/16/coronavirus-drug-steroid-dexamethasone-reduce-covid-deaths/3197420001/

 

Hopefully this works out better than hyrdroxychloroquine:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/06/15/coronavirus-fda-pulls-emergency-use-hydroxychloroquine-covid/3191671001/

 

I was going to post the same. Add better treatments to knowing when (and when not) to use ventilators, and this becomes much less deadly. All good news!

[CheezWizHed]

Regarding the 2020-2021 school year, some universities are considering having mostly in-person instruction until Thanksgiving, and then moving to online for the rest of fall semester. (It was mentioned in a virtual meeting I participated in last week and I don't remember if school names were mentioned.)

 

That would avert the annual germ exchange that tends to hit post-secondary education between Thanksgiving and the end of the calendar year.

 

A co-worker's daughter goes to Purdue and mentioned they would do this. I thought it was a brilliant idea. Still be able to meet for labs, but at the tail end of the year (between Thanksgiving and Christmas), you avoid recontaminating all the family exposures and implement the already-tested school from home for a month. Should save students some money also.

[igor67]

A couple of key things about that Ioannidis study. It is using a conglomeration of measurements from other studies. This is a meta analysis, which can be done well, but involves a substantial level of statistical background (beyond my ability). His methods read like something one of my high school students would come up with, not what I've seen other places. Second it is using antibody tests and I have yet to see anyone address how to deal with properly accounting for false positives. If you look at some of the ranges of reported numbers in his collection of studies it goes beyond 'there is substantial variation across groups' to a concerning lack of agreement. I just don't have a lot of confidence in that method. Especially when we have a death total closing in on twice the worst flu season of the last 10 years telling us clearly that there is some substantial additional mortality.

[FVBrewerFan]

Regarding the 2020-2021 school year, some universities are considering having mostly in-person instruction until Thanksgiving, and then moving to online for the rest of fall semester. (It was mentioned in a virtual meeting I participated in last week and I don't remember if school names were mentioned.)

 

That would avert the annual germ exchange that tends to hit post-secondary education between Thanksgiving and the end of the calendar year.

 

A co-worker's daughter goes to Purdue and mentioned they would do this. I thought it was a brilliant idea. Still be able to meet for labs, but at the tail end of the year (between Thanksgiving and Christmas), you avoid recontaminating all the family exposures and implement the already-tested school from home for a month. Should save students some money also.

 

That's all well and good, but how will the laundry get done?

[reillymcshane]

Covid cases seem to be pretty steady across the US - but we could see a spike. It will be interesting.

 

16 friends in Florida all tested positive after going to a bar to celebrate together. 20 other people have come forward who got the virus after going to the bar as well.

 

My wife was telling me there were more than 100 cases here in Wisconsin that could all trace getting the virus at a graduation party (something like 8 or 10 people got it at the party - and then spread it to others, who spread it to others, etc.).

 

These kinds of things may keep the thing from going away any time soon.

 

I still hope the summer will help tamper down the virus.

 

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/florida-woman-15-friends-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-dinner-at-restaurant/2249991/

[DHonks]

Just got our school district's update. Thankfully we don't have any year-round schools in our district. Those probably are feeling a little panicked since they report in 3-5 weeks. We aren't scheduled to report until July 30th.

 

It brings up awkward challenges in Arizona. Basically, current planning for the fall is a challenge because our state funding mechanism doesn’t allow for hybrid online/in-person classes. It’s either set up for online on in person, with online students being funded at about 85% of in-person. They hope to share more info on our next update on July 1.

[homer]

Arizona is now at 84% ICU bed occupancy. I know there are a lot of AZ folks on this board (I'm a former resident and have lots of friends there). Please wash your hands and wear masks!

[BillScottCanRake]

As of June 17, La Crosse County has 173 COVID-19 cases. On May 31, the county had 60 reported cases (with the first one being mid-March-ish). Between June 1-17 we have had 113, with 67 of those being in the past three days. If someone visited any one of six restaurants between June 5 and 7 they likely been exposed to COVID-19. I am not sure if statistically that is a spike, but it feels like one.

 

What I have seen here in the La Crosse area from a fair number of residents is very binary response to COVID-19; OMG, total lockdown! or What COVID? It doesn't take much effort or change to really limit the spread. Wash your hands. Don't touch things. Limit your trips out. Make 1 trip to the store instead of 3. When you are out keep your distance. Be social, but responsible. Just because you aren't likely to get severely ill or die from COVID doesn't mean you shouldn't care about the consequences of it spreading.

 

The last point is the one which really bugs me personally. My mom passed away on April 7, and the last time I was able to see her was when I drove her to the hospital to get her admitted. Because I was running a low-grade fever, I was not allowed to visit until I had a COVID test and it was negative. It took 5 days to get my results, which came in 10 minute after I got the phone call about my mom. My son-in-laws father and grandfather both also passed in April, and his family was in the same position as mine; no visitors.

 

Go to work. Live life. Be social. And please be considerate. Because COVID does impact people beyond the number of people who have died.

[CheezWizHed]

Sorry to hear that BSCR. My condolences.

 

I'm guessing mandatory temp scans are going to be more popular as a means to stay open, but safe at the same time. My work has them as you come in the door. My dentist did it for me and the workers. It isn't fool-proof (the smokers standing outside in the noonday sun trigger a fever), but it does filter the most infectious people out of exposing others.

[hawing]

Oh, BSCR, I'm so sorry to hear about your mom. You have my condolences.

 

Since I last posted here, UW-Madison released its plan for fall semester, with a snappy motto and logo and everything:

 

https://smartrestart.wisc.edu/

 

It lines up with what I'd heard recently: in-person instruction where possible until Thanksgiving, then all remote operations for the rest of fall semester. The current plan doesn't go beyond fall semester.

 

It does line up more or less with a football season, but they're probably also eager to get whatever room and board money they can get, too.

 

That Smart Restart (which to me sounds more like an appliance feature than a plan for running a large campus during a pandemic) has a LOT to unpack. I don't think UW would admit it at this point, but it has to all be subject to change, in case the situation goes way way south.

[CheezWizHed]

But if they do go way south, I would assume they are in a better position than last year to handle it. You basically revert directly back to online school in the worst case scenario.

[reillymcshane]

I have to say that, listening to my wife tell me stories about people getting COVID, I'm just disheartened by the idiocy of some people.

 

There are people going into work - knowing they have a fever - yet they still go (and then test positive). Or people not wearing masks when required 'because it is uncomfortable' - and then testing positive. It just makes you shake your head.

 

And once that person tests positive - it means everyone around them - family, friends and co-workers - all end having to get tested - and even quarantined.

 

It's so frustrating that a few idiots can keep this thing going.

 

I'm not saying people need to run around in a hazmat suit - but just be smart. It's not about YOU. It's about everyone around you.

 

Rant done. Thanks for listening.

[nate82]

Wearing a mask doesn't prevent you from getting COVID. The only thing a mask will do is prevent you from spreading it. Though some of the homemade masks are basically just face decorations that don't really do anything at all.

[reillymcshane]

Wearing a mask doesn't prevent you from getting COVID. The only thing a mask will do is prevent you from spreading it. Though some of the homemade masks are basically just face decorations that don't really do anything at all.

Exactly. That's why the masks are really important in certain environments. Wearing one really helps limit the risk to others.

 

People say, "Well I'm young and healthy" or "it violates my rights" or whatever -- well, it's not about you. It's about the people you could potentially give the virus to (and you might not know you have the virus).

 

We can't force people to wear masks. I get that. And certain places it's not a big deal. But some places (a health care facility, for instance) it's really important. You interact with people all day long. You touch pens and paper and clipboards and computers and whatever else over and over. And others are doing the same.

[owbc]

The mask use seems to be a city vs. rural thing. In my experience it's about 80-90% compliance in the city and 10-20% compliance in the two small towns I stopped at. Probably the worst one was a butcher shop that had 5 employees working in close quarters to fill orders, none wearing a mask. I get that we've decided that we're going the herd immunity route but the lack of precautions is going to cause exponential growth again and result in a ton of unnecessary deaths because hospital resources are overburdened as well as a massive economic loss because of delays in reopening.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I have to say that, listening to my wife tell me stories about people getting COVID, I'm just disheartened by the idiocy of some people.

 

There are people going into work - knowing they have a fever - yet they still go (and then test positive). Or people not wearing masks when required 'because it is uncomfortable' - and then testing positive. It just makes you shake your head.

 

And once that person tests positive - it means everyone around them - family, friends and co-workers - all end having to get tested - and even quarantined.

 

It's so frustrating that a few idiots can keep this thing going.

 

I'm not saying people need to run around in a hazmat suit - but just be smart. It's not about YOU. It's about everyone around you.

 

Rant done. Thanks for listening.

 

I have a friend that went to work with a fever and he said there was nothing he could do he couldn't risk losing his job despite the fact he knew he was potentially exposing people to covid-19. I'm like, you're not just exposing your co-workers you're exposing their families if you don't at least tell people. He said I can't tell them because if I tell them I have a fever they won't let me come to work.

 

Sigh....

[adambr2]

I have to say that, listening to my wife tell me stories about people getting COVID, I'm just disheartened by the idiocy of some people.

 

There are people going into work - knowing they have a fever - yet they still go (and then test positive). Or people not wearing masks when required 'because it is uncomfortable' - and then testing positive. It just makes you shake your head.

 

And once that person tests positive - it means everyone around them - family, friends and co-workers - all end having to get tested - and even quarantined.

 

It's so frustrating that a few idiots can keep this thing going.

 

I'm not saying people need to run around in a hazmat suit - but just be smart. It's not about YOU. It's about everyone around you.

 

Rant done. Thanks for listening.

 

I have a friend that went to work with a fever and he said there was nothing he could do he couldn't risk losing his job despite the fact he knew he was potentially exposing people to covid-19. I'm like, you're not just exposing your co-workers you're exposing their families if you don't at least tell people. He said I can't tell them because if I tell them I have a fever they won't let me come to work.

 

Sigh....

 

While I'm not excusing your friend, shame on the company that he works for if he is really in the position right now where he risks his job if he stays home from work with a fever.