COVID-19 Thread

[LouisEly]

In other news, Eli Lilly has moved into Phase 3 trials for an antibody treatment that, if all goes well, could be available by September. Not a vaccine, but an antibody treatment that could prevent hospitalizations/serious illness once someone is infected. Will be a bridge to a vaccine, but the goal right now is to keep people out of the hospital and if this can do that it will go a long way towards preventing another lockdown.

[jerichoholicninja]

It appears Wuhan may have had coronavirus in...wait for it... August 2019, per Harvard. Satellite imagery showing the hospitals experienced a surge.

 

If true, the world is going to have to unite and figure out how to put china on its knees...starting this whole thing by yelling fire in a crowded theatre is next level war games type stuff.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934

 

Here's an article for those interested. I agree it's far from concrete proof of anything but I don't why we would still believe anything that China says anymore. It wasn't just how full the parking lots were either it was based on internet searches for symptoms that are related to COVID from that time too.

 

Now there is an intriguing new clue, gleaned not from direct evidence, but from studying satellite imagery and internet search terms, which suggest hospital traffic and internet searches for symptoms were on the rise in Wuhan as early as late summer/early autumn.

 

And there's this line that I wished they would have elaborated on more.

 

Evidence has since emerged suggesting the virus might have been circulating earlier, including from a French doctor who said his patient tested positive for coronavirus in late December.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-origins-expl-idUSKBN23H1HQ

 

One of the Wuhan lab’s senior scientists, Yuan Zhiming, told Reuters in April that there were still questions to be asked about the origins of the pandemic.

 

He pointed to studies showing that the SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating in the United States was a more “primitive” version of the one in China, showing it might have first emerged there.

 

Other countries are also reappraising pneumonia deaths before last December to check if COVID-19 was the cause.

 

A study published last month suggested a man in France was infected as early as Dec. 27, a month before the country’s first confirmed cases were reported.

 

Italian researchers are also weighing the possibility that a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and influenza in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 shows the virus arrived earlier than previously thought.

 

It will be interesting to see what comes from these countries that are starting to re-evaluate pneumonia related deaths from last year. This thing could have been around for much longer than was thought.

[tmwiese55]

In other news, Eli Lilly has moved into Phase 3 trials for an antibody treatment that, if all goes well, could be available by September. Not a vaccine, but an antibody treatment that could prevent hospitalizations/serious illness once someone is infected. Will be a bridge to a vaccine, but the goal right now is to keep people out of the hospital and if this can do that it will go a long way towards preventing another lockdown.

 

Nice. Asking just to be clear, the idea would be that if you get tested and are positive but not really sick yet due to the week-ish delay that you'd take this and it would greatly reduce your chances of serious illness? If I understand that correctly I agree this could be a big big plus to people living more freely again. Combine that with lots of testing/tracing available and it would be a huge reduction of risk. Find out a coworker (or I guess anyone you crossed paths with) tests positive, get yourself tested right away, take this if you're positive.

 

I saw the French doctor thing a month or so back but hadn't followed up. Thanks for that info. That could all get really interesting.

[homer]

In other news, Eli Lilly has moved into Phase 3 trials for an antibody treatment that, if all goes well, could be available by September. Not a vaccine, but an antibody treatment that could prevent hospitalizations/serious illness once someone is infected. Will be a bridge to a vaccine, but the goal right now is to keep people out of the hospital and if this can do that it will go a long way towards preventing another lockdown.

 

Nice. Just to be clear, the idea would be that if you get tested and are positive. But not really sick yet due to the week-ish delay that you'd take this and it would greatly reduce your chances of serious illness? If I understand that correctly I agree this could be a big big plus to people living more freely again. Combine that with lots of testing/tracing available and it would be a huge reduction of risk. Find out a coworker (or I guess anyone you crossed paths with) tests positive, get yourself tested right away, take this if you're positive.

 

I saw the French doctor thing a month or so back but hadn't followed up. Thanks for that info. That could all get really interesting.

 

That is good news considering the spike in cases/hospitalizations in several states recently.

[JackNicholson1974]

I am definitely getting worried again about COVID - not that I was never not taking it seriously, I still do all my grocery shopping with a mask, have not gone out to eat one time since March, etc. But cases in Winnebago County are way way up and a friend of mine who is very healthy is infected and having a very hard time.

[LouisEly]

In other news, Eli Lilly has moved into Phase 3 trials for an antibody treatment that, if all goes well, could be available by September. Not a vaccine, but an antibody treatment that could prevent hospitalizations/serious illness once someone is infected. Will be a bridge to a vaccine, but the goal right now is to keep people out of the hospital and if this can do that it will go a long way towards preventing another lockdown.

Regeneron has started human trials of a combination of two antibodies (whereas Eli Lilly's drug is a single antibody):

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/health/regeneron-covid-19-antibody-trial-starts/index.html

 

Before people get too excited, it sounds like both/any antibody treatments will initially be reserved for the high-risk populations (elderly, immunocompromised) and healthcare/essential workers, unless you actually get infected bad enough to get hospitalized.

 

Regeneron has been preparing for a pandemic for years, developed a successful Ebola treatment last year, and developed the antibody treatment in two months.

[FVBrewerFan]

Before people get too excited, it sounds like both/any antibody treatments will initially be reserved for the high-risk populations (elderly, immunocompromised) and healthcare/essential workers, unless you actually get infected bad enough to get hospitalized.

 

I don't know, I thought that was the whole point. Antibody treatment, other treatments, vaccines...I don't think anyone was waiting for those things to be available to 5 billion people any time soon, if ever. I just figured whenever we discuss this, it's assumed we're talking about the groups you mentioned.

[tmwiese55]

I am definitely getting worried again about COVID - not that I was never not taking it seriously, I still do all my grocery shopping with a mask, have not gone out to eat one time since March, etc. But cases in Winnebago County are way way up and a friend of mine who is very healthy is infected and having a very hard time.

 

I'm not sure I'd quite use the word 'worried' for myself, especially in WI. But something like my ears have perked back up again to be watching more closely. For the last 1-2 weeks I've been in the mold of hey it's been 4-6 weeks since places have started opening and nothing has gotten crazy, generally good sign and all. Knowing there would be some spikes here or there, but still confident that with all the other safeguards in place that nothing will get crazy bad again.

 

Now some of this data comes in and its like 'ugh, can't we can't catch a break'. I also read some data a week or two back that if you take out the numbers in the previous hotbed NY/NJ the rest of the country's number don't look so good as far as trends. Then this stuff this week. But, the rest of those states are in such a better starting point than NY was that even with that hopefully it's nothing big. Still think even with this info coming in that there won't be a drastic spike and we just have to realize it's not gonna disappear and it will be there with some blips here and there. But, certainly have to pay close to attention to all this stuff

[homer]

 

Now some of this data comes in and its like 'ugh, can't we can't catch a break'. I also read some data a week or two back that if you take out the numbers in the previous hotbed NY/NJ the rest of the country's number don't look so good as far as trends. Then this stuff this week. But, the rest of those states are in such a better starting point than NY was that even with that hopefully it's nothing big. Still think even with this info coming in that there won't be a drastic spike and we just have to realize it's not gonna disappear and it will be there with some blips here and there. But, certainly have to pay close to attention to all this stuff

 

Feels like it wasn't that long ago that NY and NJ accounted for just about half the deaths.

[reillymcshane]

I think we are going to see steady stream of COVID cases throughout the state. It just takes one person to spread this thing. My wife said in our area there were something like 20 or more cases traced to a single graduation party. As more and more people get together, it's going to spread. Simple as that.

 

I don't know if things will get worse than they are -- but I just don't know if they will get better. Perhaps the warm weather will help. We will have to wait and see about that.

[tmwiese55]

I think we are going to see steady stream of COVID cases throughout the state. It just takes one person to spread this thing. My wife said in our area there were something like 20 or more cases traced to a single graduation party. As more and more people get together, it's going to spread. Simple as that.

 

I don't know if things will get worse than they are -- but I just don't know if they will get better. Perhaps the warm weather will help. We will have to wait and see about that.

 

That seems like a good phrasing for how I'm looking at it now for the next few weeks/months. We've cut it down drastically with all we done and we'll kind of have to accept that it's going to be there at some level, and it might just be in the ballpark we're at now (still hope for a noticeable level down though). I'd have preferred a few more weeks of patience to have gotten to a lower starting point, but it seems the majority didn't want that so we're at this point and have to do our best.

 

So I'm kind of accepting (as in I'm not going to get worked up that its happening) what you said while hoping for some improvement down still.

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

Now some of this data comes in and its like 'ugh, can't we can't catch a break'. I also read some data a week or two back that if you take out the numbers in the previous hotbed NY/NJ the rest of the country's number don't look so good as far as trends. Then this stuff this week. But, the rest of those states are in such a better starting point than NY was that even with that hopefully it's nothing big. Still think even with this info coming in that there won't be a drastic spike and we just have to realize it's not gonna disappear and it will be there with some blips here and there. But, certainly have to pay close to attention to all this stuff

 

Feels like it wasn't that long ago that NY and NJ accounted for just about half the deaths.

 

They still account for roughly 40% of them, for some people that's just about half.

 

Add in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland (states with urban centers that are in the same geographical area), and they account for roughly 56% of US deaths but 42% of overall confirmed cases. Over the past few weeks daily case counts are climbing at a faster rate than death/hospitalization rates - in large part due to increasing testing particularly among younger/healthier population groups than who the majority of testing was conducted on during March/early April. Likely outcome of a confirmed case in mid June is far different than what a confirmed case in March was, because a much larger percentage of testing is being performed on people who aren't yet symptomatic or already in the hospital with a respiratory illness. The virus was likely spreading among the younger/healthier populations at a similar rate in March/April then it is now, it's just that those people weren't tested nearly as frequently a couple months ago to confirm they had the disease.

 

And some of these climbing confirmed case totals in states are due to antibody tests that have been available to the public since around mid-May - those results may lead to a confirmed case but most just confirm the person had Covid-19 at some point earlier. A positive antibody serum test typically doesn't result in a trip to the ICU for that patient.

[homer]

 

Now some of this data comes in and its like 'ugh, can't we can't catch a break'. I also read some data a week or two back that if you take out the numbers in the previous hotbed NY/NJ the rest of the country's number don't look so good as far as trends. Then this stuff this week. But, the rest of those states are in such a better starting point than NY was that even with that hopefully it's nothing big. Still think even with this info coming in that there won't be a drastic spike and we just have to realize it's not gonna disappear and it will be there with some blips here and there. But, certainly have to pay close to attention to all this stuff

 

Feels like it wasn't that long ago that NY and NJ accounted for just about half the deaths.

 

They still account for roughly 40% of them, for some people that's just about half.

 

 

It's 37%. That's some serious rounding if you think it's close to half.

 

On May 1st, it was 48%

[tmwiese55]

Still the overall points he said hold true. That's kind of why I said I'm still not crazy worried as of now, worth watching and for those areas to address but still IMO not a 'cripes here we go again' type thing. To me the most important info in there was the hospitalization numbers in those few spots, I think TX/AZ if I remember. That's really the key to all this, need this data out and available so rises/spikes/hotspots or whatever you want to call them can be identified and made aware so it can be addressed. There shouldn't be immediate bashing the media for getting the info out and then the other side have to defend it, then each side retreats to their corner.

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

Feels like it wasn't that long ago that NY and NJ accounted for just about half the deaths.

 

They still account for roughly 40% of them, for some people that's just about half.

 

 

It's 37%. That's some serious rounding if you think it's close to half.

 

On May 1st, it was 48%

 

Ok - 37% is still pretty darn significant when the overall number of cases is now over 2 million when back on May 1 it was only 1 million. I'm not really sure why it's a surprise that two states totaling under 10% of the entire US population are seeing a diminishing share of nationwide COVID cases as time elapses and the virus continues its inevitable spread, but whatever.

 

The other thing to keep in mind with hospitalization rates is basically every person now going to a hospital for an elective medical procedure or surgery is being tested whether they are symptomatic or not - positive test results deem those people COVID-19 patients that are hospitalized...even if the reason for hospitalization has nothing to do with symptoms related to COVID-19. Even for the perceived current hot spot states, they are nowhere close to what NY/NJ was facing as a medical system strain back in early March when it became obvious they had no idea how widespread COVID-19 was in their major urban areas.

[Boomer5]

Looking at these stats ignores several key issues, sample size, increased testing, and the definition of what statistically is a COVID death.

 

As baseball fans, we love stats but we also have 120 years of data and an unbiased reporting methodology. Either you hit a home run or you didn’t. With COVID we are in an unprecedented scenario both in the reaction and the real time posting of data. Something no other illness has ever had to this degree. Looking at the data in its current form feels almost like analyzing spring training numbers.

 

Ultimately what we are seeing is that the virus is not a global end game.

 

We aren’t shutting down again based on the current mortality numbers and the insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living.

[TURBO]

 

We aren’t shutting down again based on the current mortality numbers and the insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living.

 

THAT really bugs me... People lost businesses, jobs, their livelihood during the shutdown, but all that was passed over for the "importance" of the protests.

[homer]

Looking at these stats ignores several key issues, sample size, increased testing, and the definition of what statistically is a COVID death.

 

As baseball fans, we love stats but we also have 120 years of data and an unbiased reporting methodology. Either you hit a home run or you didn’t. With COVID we are in an unprecedented scenario both in the reaction and the real time posting of data. Something no other illness has ever had to this degree. Looking at the data in its current form feels almost like analyzing spring training numbers.

 

Ultimately what we are seeing is that the virus is not a global end game.

 

We aren’t shutting down again based on the current mortality numbers and the insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living.

 

What are you referring to when you say "insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living."

[3and2Fastball]

So far 0.0003% of the United States population has died from Covid-19. I hope that number remains low!

[Boomer5]

Looking at these stats ignores several key issues, sample size, increased testing, and the definition of what statistically is a COVID death.

 

As baseball fans, we love stats but we also have 120 years of data and an unbiased reporting methodology. Either you hit a home run or you didn’t. With COVID we are in an unprecedented scenario both in the reaction and the real time posting of data. Something no other illness has ever had to this degree. Looking at the data in its current form feels almost like analyzing spring training numbers.

 

Ultimately what we are seeing is that the virus is not a global end game.

 

We aren’t shutting down again based on the current mortality numbers and the insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living.

 

What are you referring to when you say "insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living."

 

Going to church, birthday party, funerals, the beach, work, protesting your ability to open your business equals selfish and certain death to others.

 

Massive Protests last two weeks equals necessary and safe.

 

Good luck to any governor trying to sell a lockdown a second time.

[Boomer5]

So far 0.0003% of the United States population has died from Covid-19. I hope that number remains low!

 

0.0003% died with COVID, not necessarily from COVID. I think we will be ok.

[Jaylyn]

Really odd thing happening here in Kentucky. I've noticed that even though KY restaurants can now open inside dining with 33% of capacity. Many of the fast food places here still have haven't opened there dining rooms, still drive thru only. The rumor floating here is they will not reopen inside until 100% capacity can happen again. Kinda glad they are doing it because I went in a little Mexican cantina and the food was just fantastic! Wondering how other states are proceeding?

[RobertR]

Looking at these stats ignores several key issues, sample size, increased testing, and the definition of what statistically is a COVID death.

 

As baseball fans, we love stats but we also have 120 years of data and an unbiased reporting methodology. Either you hit a home run or you didn’t. With COVID we are in an unprecedented scenario both in the reaction and the real time posting of data. Something no other illness has ever had to this degree. Looking at the data in its current form feels almost like analyzing spring training numbers.

 

Ultimately what we are seeing is that the virus is not a global end game.

 

We aren’t shutting down again based on the current mortality numbers and the insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living.

 

What are you referring to when you say "insincere leniency on the protests but not the ability to earn a living."

 

Going to church, birthday party, funerals, the beach, work, protesting your ability to open your business equals selfish and certain death to others.

 

Massive Protests last two weeks equals necessary and safe.

 

Good luck to any governor trying to sell a lockdown a second time.

 

Nice strawman you erected there. Everybody says they fear the protests will lead to an uptick at the very least. Literally nobody has said the protests are perfectly safe

[Fear The Chorizo]

Going to church, birthday party, funerals, the beach, work, protesting your ability to open your business equals selfish and certain death to others.

 

Massive Protests last two weeks equals necessary and safe.

 

Good luck to any governor trying to sell a lockdown a second time.

 

Nice strawman you erected there. Everybody says they fear the protests will lead to an uptick at the very least. Literally nobody has said the protests are perfectly safe

 

I hope everyone understands that nothing is 'perfectly' safe, COVID or no COVID. The previous poster didn't write 'perfectly' safe related to the protests, so that 'literally nobody' actually includes the poster you were responding to.

 

Fearing protests will lead to an uptick in case counts is fine - to me that's been a more reasonable concern than alot of the other activities the general public has been restricted doing over the past few months considering how disproportionate serious cases both outside and inside of long term care facilities were impacting lower income and minority communities in urban areas. However, that fear also doesn't appear to align with reality - at least following the initial 'wait 2-3 weeks' period...it also fails to consider the fact that protests and riots saw a very limited number of nursing home patients taking to the streets. While MN still lags compared to many of its peers, results of increased testing and protective measures for long term care facility patients over the past month have appeared show up in the statewide hospitalization/death data. Why those measures weren't in place back in mid-March will always be beyond my comprehension.

 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/06/15/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

 

It's been 3 full weeks since George Floyd was murdered in Minneapolis, and well over two weeks since there were nightly large protests/demonstrations, plus looting and rioting. The state offered and urged free COVID testing to anyone who participated in the events leading to crowds, regardless of whether they were showing symptoms or not. Despite the increases in testing, unchecked large gatherings during these demonstrations, and expanded reopenings to society since mid May in this state, there has been a steady decline in daily case counts over the past 1-2 weeks here and a more marked decline in COVID-related deaths and COVID-causing hospitalizations for a bit longer.

 

Across the country, case count totals will ebb and flow across the general population because they are largely driven by how many people get tested and where those tests are focused - but yesterday the daily number of nationwide COVID-related deaths reported was the lowest number it's been in about 3 months...and a decent number of those deaths will get backdated to when they actually occurred. Daily reporting is weird, especially with weekends, but the week to week mortality trend has been pointed steadily down since late April despite total case counts going up or holding steady for quite a bit longer due primarily to increased testing.

 

Back in Mid May, the U of Minn's updated COVID model projected there would be around 1,700 minnesotans who would die from COVID complications by the end of May based on revised parameters and forecasts...that was with the state at roughly 700 deaths at the time and it was the starting point for that model. Right now MN has ~1,300 COVID-related deaths and we are midway into June, and the rate we are going right now 1,700 deaths won't happen here until after 4th of July, probably longer out than that. The best information they had couldn't get them even in the ballpark projecting deaths over a 2 week period, and there's pretty much no way they can say it's because MN did a good job of social distancing, even before George Floyd's murder. This time of June was supposed to be MN's peak based on all the other measures they had initially put into place and have slowly lifted, but the peak hospitalization/mortality period appears to have been the end of May.

[LouisEly]

Going to church, birthday party, funerals, the beach, work, protesting your ability to open your business equals selfish and certain death to others.

 

Massive Protests last two weeks equals necessary and safe.

 

Good luck to any governor trying to sell a lockdown a second time.

I think what Boomer is saying here is that IF governors try to put another lockdown in place and ban gatherings, shut down parks, no more outdoor dining at restaurants, etc., the public will call BS and say that they allowed these protests which are no different, if not worse, than having a small gathering, dining outdoors, going to the park, etc.