COVID-19 Thread

[pacopete4]

Texas just had the largest spike in deaths (58) in one day. I really hope we aren't headed down that path here in Wisconsin.

[homer]

Death rates jump all over the place day to day. 7 day rolling average would give a better idea of a trend

[pacopete4]

Over 100 in a 3-day period which is at the highest its been in a 3-day period. Will be interesting to keep following.

[LouisEly]

Texas just had the largest spike in deaths (58) in one day. I really hope we aren't headed down that path here in Wisconsin.

Three days ago they only had 13 and the day before was 25. The 7-day average since May 1st has been flat. And for being the second largest state in the union in terms of population (29 million), it isn't much. The people who are dying today probably contracted the virus at least two weeks ago if not more, so the May 1st opening up likely had little to do with it.

[MrTPlush]

Kenosha County quickly shot down their stay at home order after getting guidance that the Supreme Court ruling might apply to localities too...thus making theirs unlawful too.

[JackNicholson1974]

Kenosha County quickly shot down their stay at home order after getting guidance that the Supreme Court ruling might apply to localities too...thus making theirs unlawful too.

 

 

That would be quite the troll job if true, as the GOP, who fought to end this stay at home order without offering a real alternative to control the virus is completely punting on leadership and is now saying that local officials should just figure it out on their own.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/14/tony-evers-gop-lawmakers-meet-after-supreme-court-ruling-on-coronavirus-orders/5189390002/

[MrTPlush]

Kenosha County quickly shot down their stay at home order after getting guidance that the Supreme Court ruling might apply to localities too...thus making theirs unlawful too.

 

 

That would be quite the troll job if true, as the GOP, who fought to end this stay at home order without offering a real alternative to control the virus is completely punting on leadership and is now saying that local officials should just figure it out on their own.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/14/tony-evers-gop-lawmakers-meet-after-supreme-court-ruling-on-coronavirus-orders/5189390002/

 

There was an attorney that specializes in such laws/governances from Madison that said local governments could do it and I think most are on that same page.

 

That being said whoever Kenosha County was getting guidance from told them to throw it away.

 

Not sure who is right...but quite conflicting beliefs.

 

EDIT: It seems many of the counties that aren’t enacting a stay at home order also believe they have no right to enforce such an order.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Texas just had the largest spike in deaths (58) in one day. I really hope we aren't headed down that path here in Wisconsin.

 

That would be 11 deaths in a day in WI...the fact that's the highest daily death total in a state with 30Million plus people and four metro areas much larger than Greater Milwaukee living in it is pretty remarkable at this point.

 

Why single out TX, too? CA saw its daily death total go from 25 four days ago to 98 yesterday, for example...Looking at snapshot death totals this low isn't a great way to try and predict anything because it's tough tracking the demographic breakdown of current Covid-19 patients and what stages they are in recovering or tragically succumbing to the virus.

[igor67]

I would certainly agree that single day death rates are not super informative at this point. All of the measures though risk incomplete pictures taken in isolation. # positive cases is helpful for early detection of spikes, but only with some level of adjustment for increased testing rates. Ideally various improvements in disease management might start to decrease the lethality somewhat, so death rates and percentages are helpful in that regard. ICU hospitalization rates are kind of a mid time point, but also help keep track of resource usage. Even though the final numbers spit out by the Washington model is not terribly good because their methodology doesn't really incorporate biology tracking how their model is trending in some ways is a handy way of seeing how the data fits together. Certainly if you paired that with trends in a few other true epidemiological models you could get a more robust idea of how things are moving. That is quite a bit of work though.

[TURBO]

My wife and I just got tested. Appleton has a drive through testing site that anyone can use. I went Wednesday, it was a 2.5 to 3 hour wait, so I left. we went today, it was 15 minutes total and we were on our way. Very easy.

 

You don't have to have symptoms, or known contact to get tested. If you want to be tested, you just drive on up.

 

The only reason we did it was because I had a pounding headache on Sunday, then Monday and Tuesday, my head felt pretty spaced out, hard to focus, etc. Same thing happened to me a couple years ago, so I'm not convinced it is corona in any way. My wife came down with cold symptoms on Wednesday, so she went too. My wife convinced me that we should go, I wouldn't have done it if she wasn't so adamant.

 

My only exposure to anyone the past 3 weeks was one trip to school, the building was empty. (that was Thursday, May 7th)Talked to a couple cleaning ladies for a minute or so, did the social distancing thing, talked to my principal for 20 minutes, same thing, social distancing. If I got it, I believe it was from the damn McDonalds drive-thru that same day. We have not been getting take out as I am not convinced in any manner that that isn't the perfect way to get it. Anyone working in those places could have it and spread it to countless people. My wife grocery shopped on Tuesday at Aldis. Wore a mask, took all measures humanly possible to not interact or be in anyone's space.

 

It will be interesting to see our results. We have done a super job of being away from all others, so much so that we have been told we are being maybe a little too paranoid. If we got it, then it must be really easy to get, unless I was doomed as soon as I decided to go against all common sense and visit that damn McDonalds drive-thru. I have a couple of friends who get take-out 4 or 5 times a week to support their local business. It would just figure that the one time I do it, it bites me in the behind.

[FVBrewerFan]

My wife and I just got tested. Appleton has a drive through testing site that anyone can use. I went Wednesday, it was a 2.5 to 3 hour wait, so I left. we went today, it was 15 minutes total and we were on our way. Very easy.

 

You don't have to have symptoms, or known contact to get tested. If you want to be tested, you just drive on up.

 

The only reason we did it was because I had a pounding headache on Sunday, then Monday and Tuesday, my head felt pretty spaced out, hard to focus, etc. Same thing happened to me a couple years ago, so I'm not convinced it is corona in any way. My wife came down with cold symptoms on Wednesday, so she went too. My wife convinced me that we should go, I wouldn't have done it if she wasn't so adamant.

 

My only exposure to anyone the past 3 weeks was one trip to school, the building was empty. Talked to a couple cleaning ladies for a minute or so, did the social distancing thing, talked to my principal for 20 minutes, same thing, social distancing. If I got it, I believe it was from the damn McDonalds drive-thru that same day. We have not been getting take out as I am not convinced in any manner that that isn't the perfect way to get it. Anyone working in those places could have it and spread it to countless people. My wife grocery shopped on Tuesday at Aldis. Wore a mask, took all measures humanly possible to not interact or be in anyone's space.

 

It will be interesting to see our results. We have done a super job of being away from all others, so much so that we have been told we are being maybe a little too paranoid. If we got it, then it must be really easy to get, unless I was doomed as soon as I decided to go against all common sense and visit that damn McDonalds drive-thru. I have a couple of friends who get take-out 4 or 5 times a week to support their local business. It would just figure that the one time I do it, it bites me in the behind.

 

Yea, don't worry if people think you're being overly cautious. You gotta do you. I have family and friends who are just as cautious. We're all curious to see for your results now!

[owbc]

After seeing the report of likely coronavirus in the Seattle area in December, I'm curious to get an antibody test. I was extremely sick with what I thought was the flu just after Christmas. Worst sickness I've had in many years, especially bad in the chest. About a month before that I spent 2 weeks traveling all over Southeast Asia including close contact with Chinese tourists in Vietnam. I figured that was too early to have caught the virus but maybe not...

[DHonks]

I thought maybe I had it in early February. As a 13th year teacher, I never get sick besides seasonal allergies. in early February I had four nights of the chills and just felt generally miserable. We got antibody tested in late April and came up negative.

[RobertR]

I'm becoming increasingly of the opinion that the only way to keep people at home is to pay them to stay at home. It may be a blip or simply because we're testing more people, but cases seem to be on the uptick over the last few days and the scenes in bars and restaurants looks like a lot of people seem to think that because the stay at home order has been rescinded that it's perfectly safe. It looked like people were moving around more the last week or two and that people's patience had run out. Maybe we've bought some time and a little more awareness, but there's certainly the potential for it to get very bad again.

 

I should add that the bars are my biggest fear going forward. It's such a big part of Wisconsin's lifestyle and alcohol is almost certainly going to make a lot of people let down their guard. South Korea, who really seem to know what they're doing, had to re-shut the nightclubs. I don't think Wisconsin is prepared to do that.

[homer]

This is the county where Jacksonville, FL is:

 

 

Be curious to see where this goes in another week or so. I don't know how much testing has changed here.

[reillymcshane]

It's going to take time - probably a month or so - before we really start seeing any solid numbers on where things are going. We'll see some things trending in the next couple of weeks, but reliable data will simply take some time to accumulate. I'm guessing by July 1 we'll know if things are worse or fading - or about the same.

[homer]

It's going to take time - probably a month or so - before we really start seeing any solid numbers on where things are going. We'll see some things trending in the next couple of weeks, but reliable data will simply take some time to accumulate. I'm guessing by July 1 we'll know if things are worse or fading - or about the same.

 

If you want reliable data, apparently the Georgia Dept of Health may not be the place to go:

 

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

 

"Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?

The state of Georgia, as it provides up-to-date data on the COVID-19 pandemic."

[igor67]

In fairness I had an education prof from Georgia who pointed out that they didn't start requiring a college degree to teach until the 1980's. It's crazy enough I wish I could source it. Unfortunately that type of structural difference takes years to correct. Extrapolating from experience and literature in the best case probably a full 2 generations.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's going to take time - probably a month or so - before we really start seeing any solid numbers on where things are going. We'll see some things trending in the next couple of weeks, but reliable data will simply take some time to accumulate. I'm guessing by July 1 we'll know if things are worse or fading - or about the same.

 

If you want reliable data, apparently the Georgia Dept of Health may not be the place to go:

 

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

 

"Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?

The state of Georgia, as it provides up-to-date data on the COVID-19 pandemic."

 

I'm not sure if it's worse to be incompetent, or intentionally misleading...New York has been fudging nursing home death totals ever since May 3rd and since their initial policy of sending Covid-19 patients to nursing homes started getting alot of deserved scrutiny. Basically a death stemming from a nursing home patient only counted as a nursing home death if they died there for the past two weeks. Since NY's hospital system has had plenty of capacity since mid april, many critical nursing home covid patients were moved to hospitals before they passed away, so they were grouped in with general population deaths.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm not sure if it's worse to be incompetent, or intentionally misleading...New York has been fudging nursing home death totals ever since May 3rd and since their initial policy of sending Covid-19 patients to nursing homes started getting alot of deserved scrutiny. Basically a death stemming from a nursing home patient only counted as a nursing home death if they died there for the past two weeks. Since NY's hospital system has had plenty of capacity since mid april, many critical nursing home covid patients were moved to hospitals before they passed away, so they were grouped in with general population deaths.

 

Please remember to post links when citing data like this. Everyone deserves the ability to review the source materials.

[Machu Peach]

In fairness I had an education prof from Georgia who pointed out that they didn't start requiring a college degree to teach until the 1980's. It's crazy enough I wish I could source it. Unfortunately that type of structural difference takes years to correct. Extrapolating from experience and literature in the best case probably a full 2 generations.

 

Is this just a pointless insult to GA/southerners? I grew up in Wisconsin and lived 5 years in Atlanta before moving back to the Midwest. To say that people in Wisconsin are generally smarter/better educated than Georgia is not at all my experience. I apologize if I'm misunderstanding.

[igor67]

Not intended as an insult, more of an example of the importance of structural factors in education.

[Machu Peach]

Not intended as an insult, more of an example of the importance of structural factors in education.

 

I'm having trouble following the logic. A poorly/ineptly run website and too-good-to-check anecdote about a 40 year old educational policy means that Georgia is experiencing the negative effects of structural problems in education (with the unstated implication that Georgians are less educated/intelligent)? If I have correct I'll conclude by saying it is disappointing how easily people confirm their negative biases about others.

 

For anyone interested in data from GA I've been checking with their DPH website (https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report) a couple times a week and it seems quite reliable (or at least as reliable as anything else these days). I'm not sure what website the AJC article is referring to but I haven't seen any of the major errors they point out on it.

[TURBO]

Not intended as an insult, more of an example of the importance of structural factors in education.

 

That is how I took it, I'm not sure how anyone can be offended by what you said.

[DHonks]

My brother and sister-in-law‘s business has run into the issue of employees barking at the idea of returning to work. It’s service industry workers, and most have college/grad degrees working part time. It’s not a safety issue. They are upset that if they return to work, they’ll miss out on the extended unemployment benefits, which could amount to a $500+ weekly paycut.