COVID-19 Thread

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm really starting to doubt the numbers. How does the U.S. have far more deaths than other countries? I think there may be under-reporting from some countries. Also, over-reporting here in the U.S. Anecdotal evidence that medical providers are being pressured to report any respiratory deaths as Covid, and it's no secret that all co-morbidity cases are being reported as Covid.

 

I mean, it doesn't matter all that much if the "real" number is 45,000 or 70,000. That's still a lot of people, and at the same time still only a very small percentage of the overall population.

 

As for the GB meat packing plant, it's my understanding they're testing everyone before they go back. At least they're doing that.

[stoutdude04]

I personally dont doubt the numbers. Yea they are probably off some but not enough to change the numbers greatly. I mean, some people have zero care that this is going on and are treating it as life as normal, so I'm not shocked to see higher numbers than than other countries.

 

And good call by them to test everyone at the door. I think all businesses should be doing something like that.

 

Edit: I may have misread it. Are they just getting tested or are they checking temps daily too?

[igor67]

The excess death method suggests that the US probably has done a better job of counting than some of the European countries. The hardest hit parts of Italy and Spain ended up with enough excess deaths beyond what is normal and what was attributed to Covid that they could have had as many as double or even in some cases triple the reported number. The most recent US numbers from Yale put that excess number at 1.5 times. How much of that were unreported Covid deaths vs. other spill over affects like people with other conditions avoiding hospitals, or not being able to get normal care will take a long time to sort out precisely. For comparison finalized flu numbers take the CDC about 2 years to prepare. Ballpark, we are hitting 6 figure deaths soon with any plausible way of adding in the undercounted.

[homer]

I'm really starting to doubt the numbers. How does the U.S. have far more deaths than other countries? I think there may be under-reporting from some countries. Also, over-reporting here in the U.S. Anecdotal evidence that medical providers are being pressured to report any respiratory deaths as Covid, and it's no secret that all co-morbidity cases are being reported as Covid.

 

I mean, it doesn't matter all that much if the "real" number is 45,000 or 70,000. That's still a lot of people, and at the same time still only a very small percentage of the overall population.

 

As for the GB meat packing plant, it's my understanding they're testing everyone before they go back. At least they're doing that.

 

Anecdotal evidence that probably amounts to what....10% at most? Probably more like 5. And that is more than likely offset by the number of people who die at home without being counted.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I saw a Twitter argument this morning that was critical of the Wisconsin plan to test all nursing home occupants and employees because it would "artificially increase the number of positive tests."

 

Seriously! How deep does your head need to be in the sand to think this way?

[SoCalBrewfan]

It’s not a plague either. “Coronavirus” family includes flu,

 

This is not true. You might be thinking of the common cold viruses, which are in the same family as COVID and the SARS and MERS coronaviruses. The viruses that cause influenza are also RNA viruses but they are in different categories.

 

Even if that were the case, being the same family or not does not tell you which virus is a greater public health threat.

 

Please stop spreading disinformation.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I saw a Twitter argument this morning that was critical of the Wisconsin plan to test all nursing home occupants and employees because it would "artificially increase the number of positive tests."

 

Seriously! How deep does your head need to be in the sand to think this way?

 

Someone above was wondering why the US seems to have done so much worse with COVID than other places. This is why. Some people would rather be right, are more concerned about looking good (politically or even just with their twitter feeds or message board threads), than have an honest assessment of the public health conditions and threats and their implications for policy and behavior. It's not a new phenomenon (I'm a science professor...), it's just that the stakes are so much more immediate and obvious for this virus.

[Samurai Bucky]

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

How about this:

The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be substantially higher than that of most strains of the flu.

In the U.S., from Oct. 1, 2019 – Apr. 4, 2020, the CDC estimates that 24,000 to 62,000 people died from the flu. (The CDC does not know the exact number because the flu is not a reportable disease in most parts of the U.S.)

Because it is new, extra precautions should be taken. So, while it isn't the same as the flu, it is a virus. People have had the opportunity to develop immunity to the flu, however many people still die from it a year.

 

Bottom line is we are still learning about Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Patience is required for science to catch up with our anxieties. However, I don't know how I could say that to a J Crew employee.

[jerichoholicninja]

I saw a Twitter argument this morning that was critical of the Wisconsin plan to test all nursing home occupants and employees because it would "artificially increase the number of positive tests."

 

Seriously! How deep does your head need to be in the sand to think this way?

 

More than likely it will "artificially increase" the number of negative tests and drive the positive rate down but I don't think that's the right take away anway. Testing is being done so haphazardly and on only select groups of people that the numbers are meaningless. Statistics are only meaningful when the sample is a good representation of the whole population. That is not what we have so far.

[PeaveyFury]

However, I don't know how I could say that to a J Crew employee.

 

I'd bet they'd at least hear you out if you asked them to randomly choose 1-3 out of every 100 Facebook friends they have, then tell them that those people represent those that would have died without the social distancing measures.

[Samurai Bucky]

However, I don't know how I could say that to a J Crew employee.

 

I'd bet they'd at least hear you out if you asked them to randomly choose 1-3 out of every 100 Facebook friends they have, then tell them that those people represent those that would have died without the social distancing measures.

 

We know that it won't resonate with them until it personally affects them --- they can't relate. Now, if the J Crew employee knew somebody who did die, then I'm sure their perspective would be much different.

[igor67]

What is disturbingly true about your comment, is that their inability to see the other angle is a perfect demonstration of how not free those people are. Classical ideas on education understood a key aim of education was to create a free or liberated person. Whether you choose to look at Plato's allegory of the Cave or read Thucydides reporting on the war between Athens and Sparta. These problems have been around a very long time. The idea that freedom meant being educated as much as any particular right was a huge part of what the American experiment was really about. Freedom as I can do whatever I want is more traceable to a minority of poor early Scottish immigrants. How the Scots invented the Modern World reveals this rather well as it outlines how important Scots were in that Enlightenment period. Regrettably the early Scottish immigrants missed the metaphorical boat (and all the money the Scots made) because they caught the early boat to America.

[FVBrewerFan]

I saw a Twitter argument this morning that was critical of the Wisconsin plan to test all nursing home occupants and employees because it would "artificially increase the number of positive tests."

 

Seriously! How deep does your head need to be in the sand to think this way?

 

Someone above was wondering why the US seems to have done so much worse with COVID than other places. This is why. Some people would rather be right, are more concerned about looking good (politically or even just with their twitter feeds or message board threads), than have an honest assessment of the public health conditions and threats and their implications for policy and behavior. It's not a new phenomenon (I'm a science professor...), it's just that the stakes are so much more immediate and obvious for this virus.

 

There is no evidence to support that. Many countries had/have very similar shutdowns to ours, others have had far less and are doing far better than the models.

 

What you are right about is there's a ton of people on both political sides who would rather be right than care about the results.

[FVBrewerFan]

However, I don't know how I could say that to a J Crew employee.

 

I'd bet they'd at least hear you out if you asked them to randomly choose 1-3 out of every 100 Facebook friends they have, then tell them that those people represent those that would have died without the social distancing measures.

 

More like .2- .225 of every 1,000 Facebook friends. And much lower than that unless this J Crew employee is a senior citizen holding down this job for extra income or because they love the fashion.

[homer]

I just follow Dr Fauci for the most part.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

My friends in Georgia are sure they had it at thanksgiving. All the symptoms, knocked out for a week+. When able they’re going in to see if they have antibodies. Have more than a couple friends that were sick with the same thing in Nov/Dec.

 

What is that going to tell them? They could have gotten it and been asymptomatic in all these months after Thanksgiving.

 

I don't know what was going around in November, but it wasn't coronavirus. Way too many people are trying to make a similar claim. As Homer said it would have blown up way sooner than it did if it was actually coronavirus going around.

 

Thanksgiving is probably a bit early, but I think at this point it's obvious the "first reported cases" in March were about 2 months slow. The antibody rates spilling out of places are making it pretty clear way more people had this way earlier than thought. Every time I read one of these reports I'm more and more convinced I had it at the end of February. I realize this is bumping a 3-week old post but I don't believe for one second that the first case of COVID19 at the spot of the country's busiest airport happened in March.

 

I think more than a few people who think they had this in January and February did have it.

[reillymcshane]

Anecdotal evidence that medical providers are being pressured to report any respiratory deaths as Covid, and it's no secret that all co-morbidity cases are being reported as Covid.

 

Where is the evidence for this? I hear people say it, but no one actually provides real data behind it. Is it just rumors that have started?

 

I mean, some people have said the opposite. That there are a lot more COVID related deaths NOT being reported as COVID deaths.

 

And let's be clear - what is 'anecdotal evidence'? There is a difference between someone saying, "I am a doctor and I have been told to classify any respiratory related death as a COVID death", and someone saying, "I know someone who knows someone who knows someone who says they are being forced to report deaths as COVID related."

 

And a people repeating that there's evidence that medical providers are being pressured to report respiratory deaths as COVID does not make it true. Anymore than people repeating they have heard that COVID deaths are underreported.

 

I honestly don't have an answer to this. I just want to know where is this evidence? Is it really true? Is it just rumors gone amok?

[TURBO]

The older I get, and the more I pay attention to the news and political agendas, the more I dislike the direction this country is headed.

 

It is almost to the point that I believe nothing and no one anymore. Our media continues to fail us. There is no consistency...………………..anywhere.

 

It's just a big giant crapheap of a mess.

[homer]

You can skip the media these days and go right to the source. Internet has all kinds of research papers available for free. Or you can watch full interviews with experts. Data is everywhere. Be your own media.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You can skip the media these days and go right to the source. Internet has all kinds of research papers available for free. Or you can watch full interviews with experts. Data is everywhere. Be your own media.

 

I agree. But when the expert says something that someone doesn't agree with or doesn't like, they are accused of spreading "fake news" or "pushing their agenda".

[TURBO]

I'm not 100% sure that some "experts" don't have agendas as well.

 

Our media has let our nation down, plain and simple. I see no end in sight.

[TURBO]

You can skip the media these days and go right to the source. Internet has all kinds of research papers available for free. Or you can watch full interviews with experts. Data is everywhere. Be your own media.

 

But which data is actual? You can find data to suit your views, the information is so vast, there is just no way of knowing which data is factual, which data is agenda driven and which data is nonsense.

[FVBrewerFan]

You can skip the media these days and go right to the source. Internet has all kinds of research papers available for free. Or you can watch full interviews with experts. Data is everywhere. Be your own media.

 

But which data is actual? You can find data to suit your views, the information is so vast, there is just no way of knowing which data is factual, which data is agenda driven and which data is nonsense.

 

Correct. Just as journalism is no longer journalism, all too often science is no longer science. Agenda, politics, money...name the reason.

[homer]

You can skip the media these days and go right to the source. Internet has all kinds of research papers available for free. Or you can watch full interviews with experts. Data is everywhere. Be your own media.

 

But which data is actual? You can find data to suit your views, the information is so vast, there is just no way of knowing which data is factual, which data is agenda driven and which data is nonsense.

 

Just go to a bunch of sources then and try to use your critical thinking skills. Everyone on the planet has biases you just have to figure out how to weigh them vs. the information they are presenting.

[homer]

So we can't trust science, we can't trust journalism....do you just go off your instincts?

 

I guess my way of thinking is - who would benefit if no one believed journalists or scientists? Food for thought.