COVID-19 Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/wiseye-morning-minute-turning-the-dial-to-reopen-the-economy/video_f5253f0c-3dbf-5a0d-98e3-e7fc892af775.html#tracking-source=home-the-latest

 

What a pile of nonsense. So we will use a downward trend in the number of people showing COVID-19 symptoms AND influenza symptoms. Well that doesn't seem appropriate as flu cases trend down as the temperatures warm. And the other major criteria is the percentage of positive tests versus the number of tests administered, which again doesn't seem appropriate as the government/media fear-mongering blitz has likely sent a huge percentage of the population to get tested as soon as they get the sniffles.

 

Even with the recent breakouts in Brown county, there is no downward trend in COVID-19 cases in Wisconsin:

4/14 = 127

4/15 = 166

4/16 = 154

4/17 = 170

4/18 = 154

4/19 = 147

4/20 = 153

4/21 = 121

4/22 = 225

4/23 = 207

4/24 = 304

4/25 = 331

4/26 = 224

4/27 = 170

 

Positive cases in Brown County:

4/20 = 70

4/21 = 29

4/22 = 88

4/23 = 53

4/24 = 150

4/25 = 85

4/26 = 56

4/27 = 77

 

Recent state numbers minus Brown county cases:

4/20 = 83

4/21 = 92

4/22 = 137

4/23 = 154

4/24 = 154

4/25 = 246

4/26 = 168

4/27 = 93

 

So does one look at 93 cases outside of Brown County on 4/27 and see the light at the end of the tunnel? Just looks like an outlier to me, just as the 246 on 4/25 is an outlier. Lookin at the data and it appears we are firmly stuck in the 150-160 new cases per day plateau, outside of the Brown County spike.

 

Gee, would the "let's allow 'non-essentials' to do curbside business" have anything to do with the state losing an estimated 2 billion in tax revenue (number likely to go much higher if the shutdown continues)?

 

The re-messaging has begun.

 

PS - This is not a slam on Evers or siding with one side of the political aisle or the other. I see plenty of politicians from both parties re-maneuvering as the revenue crunch gets more and more serious.

 

It's not about re-messaging - It's about framing what the original message should have been properly when this all started 6-7 weeks ago. The error state and federal government officials made when all these orders were initially enacted is not emphasizing to the general public that these measures were taken to prevent the initial virus infection spike from overwhelming an unprepared medical system - once it was apparent that the initial spike wasn't going to overwhelm the medical system, states should have started reopening for nonvulnerable populations weeks ago while maintaining shelter in place requirements for the elderly and vulnerable (with the exception of the area closest to suffering a catastrophic surge in hospitalizations - New York/New Jersey). Unfortunately, now people freak out when they see two days in a row of increased case counts or deaths without factoring in when testing increases occurred that directly correlate to higher cumulative case totals or where hospitalization rates are trending, and they are making ill-informed opinions about what measures are working and what aren't.

 

When they were imposed, shelter in place orders should have never, ever been viewed to reduce the spread of the virus to zero among the general population - they were imposed to slow its spread among the vulnerable populations and medical personnel so the outbreak could be managed across its entire arc and hot spot areas across the country wouldn't all happen simultaneously. It's a good thing that younger/non-vulnerable people continue to contract and process the virus over time, because building even some immunity/antibodies among a larger percentage of the population will help reduce the severity of future infection spikes next fall/winter for those in vulnerable populations who haven't yet gotten infected.

 

Too many people went into shelter in place thinking that it meant after 1,2, or at worst case 6 months of doing so the virus would be gone across the country and there wouldn't be a prolonged infection risk if we all just did a really good job of it. That just isn't true now, and it never was once it was known how infectious the virus is. To make current matters worse, early on in this process there was not nearly enough concern for weighing economic, social, and general public health costs to imposing these orders indefinitely - particularly without clarifying should regional medical systems prove capable of managing the initial spike in their areas, the stay at home orders would begin loosening to the overall benefit of public health and economic recovery.

 

The revenue crunch is most certainly part of the equation on this whether people like it or not...frankly it always should have been when assessing how to move forward beyond the initial few weeks of government-imposed orders shuttering so much of what people do so abruptly. The fact that even states with extended stay at home orders are pushing to get as much open presently as possible points to them knowing this was the likely timeframe it needed to start happening to avoid economic/societal damage done by the measures outweighing any health benefit implementing them has provided.

[PeaveyFury]

once it was apparent that the initial spike wasn't going to overwhelm the medical system, states should have started reopening for nonvulnerable populations weeks ago while maintaining shelter in place requirements for the elderly and vulnerable

 

Isn't it reasonable to question whether the continued stay-at-home orders actually prevented that spike from happening, and continued to delay hospital capacity issues? Your entire post seems to contradict the Minnesota study that you yourself have cited repeatedly- namely, that a delay of re-opening continued/continues to delay a hospital surge, and also that their rosier morbidity rates STILL RELY ON A 50% CAPACITY REDUCTION FOR ALL, in addition to strict requirements for the elderly and vulnerable as you suggest.

 

Also, isn't suggesting a benefit from 'acquired immunity' very dangerous at this point? There continues to be a question of what type of immunity is actually acquired, and if so, there is zero data on how long that remains.

 

Additionally, are we any closer to knowing exactly who the "vulnerable" are? Is it just the elderly? Is it those with diabetes? Heart disease? Asthma? High blood pressure? I find it hard to suggest a 'quarantine of the vulnerable' when we don't really know for sure who those people are. The 'n' is potentially tens of millions of people.

 

In the end, things will gradually reopen, and I do think the revised order suggests a logical way to start to do so. I suspect there will be much trial and error, and a lot will be learned from the states that open more suddenly. Hopefully it will be positive items that are learned, rather than the potentially terrible other result.

[igor67]

As a reminder in humility, I should have known better and checked the source, but the WHO 'statement' everyone is commenting on was a stupid tweet. As we are all aware twitter is capable of making arguments about as subtle as a baseball bat upside the head. They realized the individuals mistake and then post a clarification, indicating they were just trying indicate we can't possibly have data yet on the level of immunity, so it would be premature to assume blanket 100% protection if you have recovered.

 

I think collectively there is a decent picture overall of how things are being weighed, however just like with the draft the decision makers have access to way more data (even if it is incomplete) and are also trying to think about a bunch of things we haven't thought about. For example it is very clear to me that for those hung up on Flatten the Curve that this was a marketing/ communication strategy. You can't possibly educate people on all of the details up front. It is similar to teaching about atomic structure. Most of you have a pretty simple picture of what atoms look like (probably very much like the opening from Big Bang theory). Not only is that model wrong, it is actively misleading at higher levels, and crucially it was never actually proposed as a scientific idea. It is a teaching tool that get folks through high school chemistry with some understanding.

 

I know that building a 'story' of what has happened is one way we try to make sense of things, but try to leave room in that story for people trying to grapple both with an unprecedented situation and access to a lot of inside information.

[jerichoholicninja]

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21238456/centralized-isolation-coronavirus-hong-kong-korea

 

If there's one place the US has really screwed the pooch on it's this. Anyone who tests positive should have been isolated in some way. I don't understand how you can just send someone back into the world that you know has it. Unless this person lives alone, they're going to spread it to other people. The few times my wife has been sick in our marriage I don't want to be anywhere near her and she gets offended at the idea that I want to sleep in a different room till she gets better. I'm sorry, but spending 8 hours with your face breathing a foot or two from mine is going to get me sick, there's no way around that.

[LouisEly]

Additionally, are we any closer to knowing exactly who the "vulnerable" are?

For the most part, yes:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html

 

The University of Wisconsin's Health Innovation Program has taken that a step further, and have identified at a zip code level in WI the % of the population that has at least two risk factors:

 

https://hip.wisc.edu/NHP

[PeaveyFury]

Additionally, are we any closer to knowing exactly who the "vulnerable" are?

For the most part, yes:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html

 

The University of Wisconsin's Health Innovation Program has taken that a step further, and have identified at a zip code level in WI the % of the population that has at least two risk factors:

 

https://hip.wisc.edu/NHP

 

VERY interesting data from UW, thanks for sharing! The county data seems to average 20-30% for most counties across their zips, whether Brown, Dane, Marathon, etc. If the UW study is accurate for TWO risk factors, that's a lot of people staying under further restrictions. I'd have to think that would put one risk factor in the 40-60% range?

[LouisEly]

I don't know. There's a pretty strong correlation of obesity with the other risk factors. It's WI - obesity is pretty rampant.

 

Pretty much everyone I have seen under the age of 40 who has died from this has been obese (there was a teenager this week from IL who had a rare genetic disease that left her immunocompromised). Obesity leads to diabetes, heart issues, and lung issues - for people who are morbidly obese, just about all of them have lung and breathing issues.

 

Moderate to severe asthma is the one thing that might be fairly prevalent with no other risk factors.

[igor67]

Yet oddly enough asthma does not appear to be a risk factor anymore. Initially it appears to have been included because they were thinking of covid as a respiratory disease. The data from China and earlier US cases points towards asthma being neutral and possibly even beneficial. Combined with all of the other weird symptoms there seems to have been some substantial rethinking of the disease. Interestingly though collectively the various symptoms are not completely unheard of if you look across all coronoviruses including some prominent animal strains.

[Samurai Bucky]

... and in other news... we had to go away from our primary lender / banker and do something online. We were approved yesterday and received the $$ in our account today. We waited 2 weeks at least after submitting our application with our primary banker. Weird...

 

So, the magical unicorn did come... once we found it...

[LouisEly]

I really wish that the Chicago news would stop leading off with human interest stories about people who are suffering because of COVID-19 impact. I had no idea that masks are now mandatory starting today and that golf courses will open up starting today.

[MrTPlush]

In Wisconsin anyone with symptoms can officially get a test. You don’t need to be on your death bed to qualify. I also noticed they are starting to do random location testing sites where symptomatic OR at risk individuals (with no symptoms) can get a test without a doctors approval. Hoping that means testing supply availability is increasing quite a bit too.

 

Positive rate and hospitalization rate (which were already trending downward) should really start going down now.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I really wish that the Chicago news would stop leading off with human interest stories about people who are suffering because of COVID-19 impact. I had no idea that masks are now mandatory starting today and that golf courses will open up starting today.

 

If it bleeds it leads.

[homer]

I really wish that the Chicago news would stop leading off with human interest stories about people who are suffering because of COVID-19 impact. I had no idea that masks are now mandatory starting today and that golf courses will open up starting today.

 

Block Club is the way to go for local news.

[Samurai Bucky]

I really wish that the Chicago news would stop leading off with human interest stories about people who are suffering because of COVID-19 impact. I had no idea that masks are now mandatory starting today and that golf courses will open up starting today.

 

If it bleeds it leads.

We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blond

Who comes on at five

She can tell you 'bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye

It's interesting when people die

Give us dirty laundry

 

Can we film the operation?

Is the head dead yet?

You know, the boys in the newsroom got a running bet

Get the widow on the set!

We need dirty laundry

 

[reillymcshane]

I saw that the U.S. Senate is going to reconvene on Monday, and the capital physician said that they can't test all the senators - only those who exhibit symptoms.

 

And tests will take 1-2 days to come back.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/30/capitol-physician-senators-coronavirus-testing-226980

 

This is still an issue for most places, including the hospitals. Ideally, we would have rapid testing - but that's pretty rare. My wife said at her organization they can do tests in as quick as 2-3 hours - but that depends on which facility the test is done in. There might not be a lab in that town, and the test have to go elsewhere.

 

Ideally, we'd have tests that could be run on the spot - and we get back results in minutes. But that's just not available to most places - and that will not change in the near future.

 

The most difficult thing right now - with regards to testing - is people understanding the reality of the situation. Politicians are saying stuff that is simply not true or it comes with a caveat such as 'once we have all the supplies available' or something like that. People don't hear the caveat or it's buried later in the statement or they just ignore it. It makes for confusion and frustration on all sides.

[nodakfan17]

JBS announced they are going to re-open in Brown County.

 

Maybe they should let some of the hundreds of small businesses that aren’t total clusters open first? I guess they closed voluntarily and are re-opening voluntarily, but something about that just doesn’t seem fair.

[superfly]

JBS announced they are going to re-open in Brown County.

 

Maybe they should let some of the hundreds of small businesses that aren’t total clusters open first? I guess they closed voluntarily and are re-opening voluntarily, but something about that just doesn’t seem fair.

 

It’s not really a choice. Do we want to trust private companies and maybe have some people get a flu-pneumonia like bug or do we want a food crisis? I’ll take the former. Trump ordered it in the name of continuing the food supply.

 

Open the small businesses up too for that matter.

[LouisEly]

JBS announced they are going to re-open in Brown County.

 

Maybe they should let some of the hundreds of small businesses that aren’t total clusters open first? I guess they closed voluntarily and are re-opening voluntarily, but something about that just doesn’t seem fair.

The company had no choice but to reopen its Green Bay plant after President Donald Trump issued an executive order last week requiring beef, pork and poultry facilities to operate "to ensure a continued supply of protein for Americans." The order came as several major meat producers face scrutiny nationwide over their handling of COVID-19.

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/2020/05/04/coronavirus-brown-county-jbs-reopen-green-bay-plant-tuesday/3079565001/

[DuWayne Steurer]

JBS announced they are going to re-open in Brown County.

 

Maybe they should let some of the hundreds of small businesses that aren’t total clusters open first? I guess they closed voluntarily and are re-opening voluntarily, but something about that just doesn’t seem fair.

 

It’s not really a choice. Do we want to trust private companies and maybe have some people get a flu-pneumonia like bug or do we want a food crisis? I’ll take the former. Trump ordered it in the name of continuing the food supply.

 

Open the small businesses up too for that matter.

 

 

Its not the flu.

[igor67]

Given the importance of the food supply we should probably re-institute the draft to replace the sick workers on the line. With so many other things shut down and less physical demands of the job there would be little reason for exemptions even.

[PeaveyFury]

JBS announced they are going to re-open in Brown County.

 

Maybe they should let some of the hundreds of small businesses that aren’t total clusters open first? I guess they closed voluntarily and are re-opening voluntarily, but something about that just doesn’t seem fair.

 

It’s not really a choice. Do we want to trust private companies and maybe have some people get a flu-pneumonia like bug or do we want a food crisis? I’ll take the former. Trump ordered it in the name of continuing the food supply.

 

Open the small businesses up too for that matter.

 

JBS is nearly single-handedly responsible for the surge in WI cases that has prevented the second part of your statement from coming true much, much quicker.

[superfly]

JBS announced they are going to re-open in Brown County.

 

Maybe they should let some of the hundreds of small businesses that aren’t total clusters open first? I guess they closed voluntarily and are re-opening voluntarily, but something about that just doesn’t seem fair.

 

It’s not really a choice. Do we want to trust private companies and maybe have some people get a flu-pneumonia like bug or do we want a food crisis? I’ll take the former. Trump ordered it in the name of continuing the food supply.

 

Open the small businesses up too for that matter.

 

 

Its not the flu.

 

It’s not a plague either. “Coronavirus” family includes flu, and both of them present pneumonia problems. So yes indeed, if we are really going to get technical here it is indeed a more severe relative of the flu, as well as the common cold.

[igor67]

So your willing to volunteer at a packing plant then? For the good of the economy?

[homer]

We just passed 70,000 deaths in about 5 weeks. This ain't the flu.

 

Saying it's like a bad flu or cold is like saying alcoholism is like a bad hangover.

[stoutdude04]

One thing that would help is if businesses took this a little more seriously. Places have opened up here and are operating like business as usual. Check temperatures at the door, etc.