COVID-19 Thread

[gebc1997]

I think one of the most useful set of data we could all use as a country is in what situations is the virus most likely to spread in significant amounts.

 

 

Is it spread in retail situations

Is it spread in larger gatherings

Is it spread in nursing homes and long term care facilities

Is it spread in apartment complexes

Is it spread in hospitals

Is it spread in open air parks and recreation places

Is it spread in office buildings

Etc....

 

I live in Cambria county in Pa, and I work as a pharmacist in a very busy Walmart. We have a total of 21 cases cumulatively in our county since mid March, and 0 cases in the zip code that my Walmart is located. Walmart has been open the entire time this has been going on and in the 6 weeks since this has become a major issue, I have not heard of one case or even one almost case involving any Walmart employee or customer. This leads me to believe that under proper precautions , the retail spread threat is relatively low. My bet is 50,000 people have wandered about that store over those 6 weeks, most without masks or gloves, Plenty of them high risk people, and still no cases at all.

 

 

So we need to know what situations cause the most likely risk of significant spread, and I assume we can decipher most of this by contact tracing and questionnaires of positive cases of where they have been, etc.

 

The point of the major shutdowns was to flatten the curve, and it appears that has been done in even the most hard hit areas. The point of the shutdown was not to reduce the new cases to 0.

 

Therefore we need to know what situations are pretty darn safe so we can safely and successfully reopen as early as today in most places in this country.

[MrTPlush]

Has there been any data on where people are likely getting infected? There is an overwhelming amount of counties and even decent size cities in Wisconsin that have seen very little coronavirus cases in weeks. Menards is packed and everyone goes to the grocery store...yet no one is getting infected in these areas. Meat packing plants have gotten outbreaks in Green Bay, but the many dairy plants are fine. Identify the issues and require these plants to either comply or shutdown.

 

Many counties in Wisconsin have seen little to even no positive cases in the last two weeks. I am not sure how long you can keep feeding these counties and communities garbage and hold them to the same rules as problem areas 250+ miles away. Some people are watching their lives crumble when there is no issue in their area. I am hoping things actually trend well the next few weeks for the entire state, but if not you have to create localized plans to attempt. I think it is better if the entire state could move together, but if some areas just keep being problems you can't keep the rest of the state in quarantine for them.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Let's just pretend that they started Phase 1 of re-opening things. How many people are going to still remain quarantined regardless because they are still worried about this?

 

I think this needs to be considered.

 

Yeah, I don't see myself and my family doing things much differently than we do now. I'll still be working from home. Won't be rushing out to restaurants and bars, still only go shopping one time a week and only one person doing it. Maybe see friends if it is just outside on a nice day still from a distance. But yeah, I won't be doing much different.

 

I sent my younger son back to daycare today. We are both working at home but it had just become too much to handle with work, the older one's virtual learning and managing a toddler. It was a combination of the stress, the fact we were paying 50% tuition for no care, and the lack of being around other kids. My older one will finish out the school year at home and go back to a summer program. He will be starting there this week for just 1 day per week.

 

My office re-opens with the 5/26 order, but I was mostly remote pre-virus. We will still be taking our summer vacation out east if the beaches open, but they are currently closed.

 

All the philosophical things have been argued repeatedly in this thread so there is little need to re-hash them. I'm just of the mindset that we need to start getting back to life as much as we reasonably can. Higher-risk groups should exercise extra caution but I am just not going to cocoon for 6 months. It's not that I can't go a few months without a restaurant, I can, it's just there's a point where we need to lean on data and be honest about the risk. If we quarantine for 6 months, an entire year or five years, we will still be scared to go back to life on the re-start date. With the infection rates looking much higher than thought and the mortality much lower, combined with how many people are at Walmart and Home Depot every weekend, I do wonder what we achieved if anything.

[FVBrewerFan]

Dogs can now legally get a haircut in WI. We can not.

 

Back to the last couple posts, I think we have a pretty good idea how to greatly lower the number of two cases. As a society we are much more aware now of how to interact with others in public. We can open retail, restaurants, most places really. It's just a matter of keeping your distance, cleaning surfaces, cleaning hands often, etc. There's no reason we can't start doing this today, not much is going to change a month or two from now. Then continue to be vigilant in nursing homes, medical facilities, etc. If you work from an office, continue to work from home if you can. Let common sense prevail. (For example, the GB meat plant should have been shut down by the health dept a long time ago.) I mean, these phases aren't going to work if common sense decisions like that aren't made.

[igor67]

For lack of an elegant term opened up low risk jobs today assuming their employers had a plan for social distancing. Still working on getting a full testing plan ready to go. I think the best use of local control is to be able to way local risk vs. reward in different areas. There are so many different possible variations on business practices that accurately judging risk for all of them is doomed to failure. So I'm not inclined to think I could reliably judge who should get opened first, but I do like stages. Make sure there is no resurge before moving forward to another step.

[wallus]

I got a haircut not long before you couldn't get them. I could really use another one right about now. The people that didn't get one before they couldn't must be in way worse shape than I am.

[adambr2]

I got a haircut not long before you couldn't get them. I could really use another one right about now. The people that didn't get one before they couldn't must be in way worse shape than I am.

 

Of all the dumb crap that has found ways to stay open in the last month I can't understand why a salon/barber can't stay open with strict guidelines like one customer in the building at a time and online/phone payments online as well as strict hygiene guidelines.

 

Of all the sources of the spreading of this, if they took precautions this would probably be a very minor source of spreading in the big picture.

 

I can wake up, go out and play 9 holes, swing by the liquor store, fight some lines at Home Depot to go buy some plywood, drive through Mickey Ds and drop my dog off to get groomed but heaven forbid I get a trim and interact with one single person there while I'm out.

[LouisEly]

I got a haircut not long before you couldn't get them. I could really use another one right about now. The people that didn't get one before they couldn't must be in way worse shape than I am.

It was safe for the 58-year-old mayor of the third largest city in the United States to get a haircut three weeks ago because "the stylist wore a face shield and gloves". So, let's give barbers and stylists face shields and gloves and put them back to work. Make sure there is at least 6' between chairs.

[igor67]

I think there is a solid case there, but this is where it only makes someone else crazy that they can do .... just as safe. Economically I think there is a pretty good case that they would warrant a high priority on being a group that tends not to fall into a safety net. Lots are independent contractors or run a business of 1, they aren't sitting on big piles of cash they can lean on. And people could really use the service.

[homer]

Just this past weekend in Chicago, some people had a massive house party in one neighborhood and then in another neighborhood there was a big ole religious wedding ceremony. I have zero faith in people, left to their own devices, to practice effective social distancing, good hygiene, etc. if we open everything up all at once.

[stoutdude04]

I got a haircut not long before you couldn't get them. I could really use another one right about now. The people that didn't get one before they couldn't must be in way worse shape than I am.

 

I am currently rocking a mullet and a mustache with cutoff sleeves everyday. I feel it's the person I've become.

[adambr2]

Just this past weekend in Chicago, some people had a massive house party in one neighborhood and then in another neighborhood there was a big ole religious wedding ceremony. I have zero faith in people, left to their own devices, to practice effective social distancing, good hygiene, etc. if we open everything up all at once.

 

I don't think anyone is looking to open up everything at once, but I think there's little harm in opening salons and barbers under controlled conditions.

[superfly]

Help me understand the implications of this headline:

 

“World Health Organization says getting COVID-19 May not prevent second infection.“

 

I understand all the “this is speculation, this isn’t peer reviewed, this isn’t this or that.” But if you take it for what it says - that one can continue to get the virus...doesn’t that imply that as a human race we are more or less screwed?

 

If true, I presume a second infection wouldn’t prevent a third and so on and so forth. Eventually we all will have it all the time non stop if it is contagious as it seems and we can’t become immune...no? Until we are all dead or eventually Kill ourselves out of the misery of constantly being sick.

 

What am I missing here?

 

I look at anything the WHO says as completely the opposite after seeing how they literally kissed the :&(‘es of China in January, and then seeing Tedros very suspect connections to them.

 

Take it for a grain of salt...it may not even be worth that much.

 

So instead of trying to understand how skepticism fits into the scientific method you are choosing to tie your personal safety to confirmation bias?

 

Confirmation bias of what? Where are the surges? Where are the MILLIONS of casualties piling up? Nursing homes in NY which the Governor forced to take in COVID19 patients by mandate created mass crisis, and now he’s blaming them for it. The NYC subway system has proven to be a major source of COVID19 being tracked around, and it was made worse by the Governor cutting trains. It cramped more and more people into less and less cars. Transit workers paid the price. Elderly health facilities are the majority of casualties, and here in Minnesota the age of death was averaging 85~ last I looked.

 

Each statistic has a name and a family behind it, and is tragic. Life is also a tragedy and any one of us could contract something and die, or die of cancer or other illness because these people are not being serviced by low staffed hospitals. Mayo just laid off 30,000 employees because they can’t do anything! How many people will die because of this?

 

Tedros is a stooge for China, and thus the WHO is a stooge. Simple google searches turn up all the evidence one needs.

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/487851-china-and-the-whos-chief-hold-them-both-accountable-for-pandemic

[reillymcshane]

Mayo just laid off 30,000 employees because they can’t do anything! How many people will die because of this?

Just to note - this is not true.

 

Mayo has laid off no employees. They said that 30,000 people would have some type of reduced hours or furloughs. They specifically noted that these were not layoffs. Also, there were some pay cuts. Doctors will not be furloughed, but will have a 10% wage reduction. Top executives are taking 20% reductions.

 

All this is still a big deal. No one wants to get reduced hours or be furloughed. The good part - these people will continue to receive health care, and as thing ramp back up, let us hope they will be brought back sooner than later.

 

Also, 60% of Mayo Clinics revenues are from non-essential elective services (such as a hip replacement) - so the critical cases are all being handled.

 

But what is missed is the issues that arise through through simple preventative care - high blood pressure, etc. That kind of thing gets put off, which - without question - compromises the long term care of a patient.

 

On the other hand, if you go into the doctor and catch a virus because people haven't been tested or don't have proper equipment - that kind of defeats the purpose of it all.

 

I will say that when all of this is over (will it ever be over?) - things will change. Jobs will get eliminated. Other jobs will get created. It's the nature of the beast.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just this past weekend in Chicago, some people had a massive house party in one neighborhood and then in another neighborhood there was a big ole religious wedding ceremony. I have zero faith in people, left to their own devices, to practice effective social distancing, good hygiene, etc. if we open everything up all at once.

 

To me that just reinforces the point many have on getting more businesses/activities opened up that can be operated with a heightened level of social distancing, and giving sensible people the ability to decide for themselves how they choose to carry on their day to day. The events you described violate any social distancing guidance, whether it's in an open state or a shelter in place state. IL is shelter in place through all of May and this stuff is still happening there. Dumb people are going to do dumb things no matter where they are. IMO having states that try to limit the general public too long are going to be the ones that experience a second and likely larger wave of infections, because the people there will act foolishly once things are allowed to reopen.

[logan82]

Just this past weekend in Chicago, some people had a massive house party in one neighborhood and then in another neighborhood there was a big ole religious wedding ceremony. I have zero faith in people, left to their own devices, to practice effective social distancing, good hygiene, etc. if we open everything up all at once.

I think this is part of the problem. We almost have to make the guidelines more strict than actually needed because we need to compensate for the people who just can't follow the rules. Man is a stupid creature.

[thebruce44]

I got a haircut not long before you couldn't get them. I could really use another one right about now. The people that didn't get one before they couldn't must be in way worse shape than I am.

It was safe for the 58-year-old mayor of the third largest city in the United States to get a haircut three weeks ago because "the stylist wore a face shield and gloves". So, let's give barbers and stylists face shields and gloves and put them back to work. Make sure there is at least 6' between chairs.

 

Where is all the PPE to pull this off? I desperately need these supplies for first responders and we are unable to procure any masks.

[thebruce44]

I look at anything the WHO says as completely the opposite after seeing how they literally kissed the :&(‘es of China in January, and then seeing Tedros very suspect connections to them.

 

Take it for a grain of salt...it may not even be worth that much.

 

So instead of trying to understand how skepticism fits into the scientific method you are choosing to tie your personal safety to confirmation bias?

 

Confirmation bias of what? Where are the surges? Where are the MILLIONS of casualties piling up? Nursing homes in NY which the Governor forced to take in COVID19 patients by mandate created mass crisis, and now he’s blaming them for it. The NYC subway system has proven to be a major source of COVID19 being tracked around, and it was made worse by the Governor cutting trains. It cramped more and more people into less and less cars. Transit workers paid the price. Elderly health facilities are the majority of casualties, and here in Minnesota the age of death was averaging 85~ last I looked.

 

Each statistic has a name and a family behind it, and is tragic. Life is also a tragedy and any one of us could contract something and die, or die of cancer or other illness because these people are not being serviced by low staffed hospitals. Mayo just laid off 30,000 employees because they can’t do anything! How many people will die because of this?

 

Tedros is a stooge for China, and thus the WHO is a stooge. Simple google searches turn up all the evidence one needs.

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/487851-china-and-the-whos-chief-hold-them-both-accountable-for-pandemic

 

I'm not sure how to respond to your post as it covers so many unrelated topics. I'll just start with the first 3 questions you posted:

 

Confirmation Bias Of What: The WHO (and other researchers) is skeptical and looking for more evidence that previously infected people are immune indefinitely. You posted that you are dismissive of anything from the WHO because of their relationship with China. It doesn't seem pragmatic to make a blanket statement like that.

 

Where are the surges: What do you define as a "surge?" Chicago still has not peaked. Orange County opened beaches and is now seeing a large increase in cases. Green Bay had a localized outbreak. Do these meet your definition for a surge?

 

Where are the MILLIONS of casualties piling up: What does that have to do with your trust or distrust for any information released by the Who? Is millions of casualties your qualification for something?

[JosephC]

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/wiseye-morning-minute-turning-the-dial-to-reopen-the-economy/video_f5253f0c-3dbf-5a0d-98e3-e7fc892af775.html#tracking-source=home-the-latest

 

What a pile of nonsense. So we will use a downward trend in the number of people showing COVID-19 symptoms AND influenza symptoms. Well that doesn't seem appropriate as flu cases trend down as the temperatures warm. And the other major criteria is the percentage of positive tests versus the number of tests administered, which again doesn't seem appropriate as the government/media fear-mongering blitz has likely sent a huge percentage of the population to get tested as soon as they get the sniffles.

 

Even with the recent breakouts in Brown county, there is no downward trend in COVID-19 cases in Wisconsin:

4/14 = 127

4/15 = 166

4/16 = 154

4/17 = 170

4/18 = 154

4/19 = 147

4/20 = 153

4/21 = 121

4/22 = 225

4/23 = 207

4/24 = 304

4/25 = 331

4/26 = 224

4/27 = 170

 

Positive cases in Brown County:

4/20 = 70

4/21 = 29

4/22 = 88

4/23 = 53

4/24 = 150

4/25 = 85

4/26 = 56

4/27 = 77

 

Recent state numbers minus Brown county cases:

4/20 = 83

4/21 = 92

4/22 = 137

4/23 = 154

4/24 = 154

4/25 = 246

4/26 = 168

4/27 = 93

 

So does one look at 93 cases outside of Brown County on 4/27 and see the light at the end of the tunnel? Just looks like an outlier to me, just as the 246 on 4/25 is an outlier. Lookin at the data and it appears we are firmly stuck in the 150-160 new cases per day plateau, outside of the Brown County spike.

 

Gee, would the "let's allow 'non-essentials' to do curbside business" have anything to do with the state losing an estimated 2 billion in tax revenue (number likely to go much higher if the shutdown continues)?

 

The re-messaging has begun.

 

PS - This is not a slam on Evers or siding with one side of the political aisle or the other. I see plenty of politicians from both parties re-maneuvering as the revenue crunch gets more and more serious.

[FVBrewerFan]

This whole plan is maneuvering from the original plan, absolutely. The original plan was to stay at home to flatten the curve. Avoid hospitals from getting slammed. That's exactly what we were told, the reason was very specific. Your numbers above prove the point, the curve in WI has been flattened for quite a long time, if there ever was one. Covid- related hospitalizations have also been very stable (and low) since the start. It's very difficult statistically to have numbers down every single day when the numbers are so small to begin with. Plus, add in inconsistent reporting.

 

We could go to Phase 2 today, and I would be fine with that. But we're starting more slowly, that's fine too, as long as phase 1 starts ASAP. And there's no reason phase 1 can't begin in the vast majority of the state today. There will be outbreaks. This will happen if Phase 2 starts today or phase 1 starts in October.

 

Of course this has everything to do with the state losing billions in tax revenue. And hundreds of businesses closing. And thousands losing their jobs.

[jerichoholicninja]

Let's be honest here, there is so much unknown about the virus and the information changes everyday that no one really knows what's the best course of action - scientist or politician. There isn't even a clear end game. Is it to flatten the curve, is it to keep people from getting sick, or is it to eradicate the virus? The COVID numbers are almost useless as not everyone is being tested, not everyone with symptoms is being tested, there are quite likely thousands of people that have it and show no symptoms, and there is such a huge variance in what exactly COVID does to a person that it's impossible to make any sort of conclusion from them.

[MrTPlush]

State is just trying to not get sued and have their orders taken to court. Due to such unchartered territory and limited time to act these orders have a ton of holes and are pretty questionable. As time goes on these businesses/industries aren't going to sit around watching their lives get destroyed...especially in areas where coronavirus is almost non existent.

[Thurston Fluff]

Let's be honest here, there is so much unknown about the virus and the information changes everyday that no one really knows what's the best course of action - scientist or politician. There isn't even a clear end game. Is it to flatten the curve, is it to keep people from getting sick, or is it to eradicate the virus? The COVID numbers are almost useless as not everyone is being tested, not everyone with symptoms is being tested, there are quite likely thousands of people that have it and show no symptoms, and there is such a huge variance in what exactly COVID does to a person that it's impossible to make any sort of conclusion from them.

 

Which is why we need a national testing program up and running as soon as possible. Without one there will be no getting back to anything near normal. Especially if people don't become immune to it after getting it.

[Thurston Fluff]

I got a haircut not long before you couldn't get them. I could really use another one right about now. The people that didn't get one before they couldn't must be in way worse shape than I am.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oK7_VSpTyVY

[PeaveyFury]

And the other major criteria is the percentage of positive tests versus the number of tests administered, which again doesn't seem appropriate as the government/media fear-mongering blitz has likely sent a huge percentage of the population to get tested as soon as they get the sniffles.

 

Isn't the actual reality here the opposite? There are widespread reports that unless you have proven direct exposure, you're not getting a COVID-19 test (or weren't until the last couple of weeks). Even then, testing is sporatic & inconsistently administered across the states and probably even across our state.