COVID-19 Thread

[igor67]

It sounds more like the packing industry was resistant to figuring our a way to alter their production methods to make them less likely to spread. A relevant concern is how far outside of the packing plants are these clusters going to spread? 500 is a lot of chances for it to have spread at a gas station, Menards, or grocery store.

 

Back to jericoloninja's comment above I came across this: https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-recovered-coronavirus-tried-donate-171000048.html

 

Digesting the full article 1) it appears that most folks signing up for the trial have a high antibody count. 2) A lower antibody count does not mean she is not immune. 3) Just like with a vaccine some people do not always mount a full response to an actual disease. It's a small percentage, so generally not a big deal.

Overall I don't really see anything in there that would make it seem that there will be issues with people developing immunity. Rapid enough mutation is still a possibility, though at that point Natural Selection will tend to drive the virus to longer latency and less serious complications. There are enough unknowns though that the extent of those shifts would be pretty hard to estimate in the short term.

[nodakfan17]

[sarcasm]Can all you city slickers figure out how to not infect each other so this can all end?[/sarcasm]

It’s maddening.

 

I’ve been in my home for 7 weeks with my wife and son. We go on a daily walk around our neighborhood and make a weekly trip to the grocery store to pick up our online order (which is delivered to our car). We’ve ordered takeout twice and felt guilty about the unnecessary risk. Everyone we know is taking this very seriously and yet here we are in the middle of a CDC hot spot.

[LouisEly]

It sounds more like the packing industry was resistant to figuring our a way to alter their production methods to make them less likely to spread.

It also sounds like the packing industry was pressuring workers, especially immigrants, to come into work even if they were sick.

 

I also wonder if it's being spread through animals with the way that packing plants (North Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin) are getting hit.

[LouisEly]

We... make a weekly trip to the grocery store to pick up our online order (which is delivered to our car). We’ve ordered takeout twice and felt guilty about the unnecessary risk. Everyone we know is taking this very seriously and yet here we are in the middle of a CDC hot spot.

I don't see how placing an on-line order and having it delivered to your car is less risk. Who is gathering your order? For how many other people are they also gathering orders for? How much time a day are they spending in the grocery store? Aren't they exposing themselves to more people than if you got your own groceries?

 

If you go when it's not busy, wear a mask and gloves, don't come near anyone, and wash your hands when you get home, I think it would be less risk than having someone else who is in the grocery store all day long getting your groceries.

[nodakfan17]

We... make a weekly trip to the grocery store to pick up our online order (which is delivered to our car). We’ve ordered takeout twice and felt guilty about the unnecessary risk. Everyone we know is taking this very seriously and yet here we are in the middle of a CDC hot spot.

I don't see how placing an on-line order and having it delivered to your car is less risk. Who is gathering your order? For how many other people are they also gathering orders for? How much time a day are they spending in the grocery store? Aren't they exposing themselves to more people than if you got your own groceries?

 

If you go when it's not busy, wear a mask and gloves, don't come near anyone, and wash your hands when you get home, I think it would be less risk than having someone else who is in the grocery store all day long getting your groceries.

 

I don’t even get out of my car. I just pop the trunk and show the staff my ID through my driver’s side window. Everything gets wiped off with a Clorox wipe in my garage before it goes in the house. Produce gets soaked in vinegar. What if I’m a silent spreader? It’s not just about my safety, but the safety of others. I don’t think you can convince me I’m better off actually going into the store.

[young guns]

https://www.wisn.com/amp/article/hartford-mayor-to-allow-businesses-to-reopen-next-week-under-new-guidelines/

This doesn't make much sense. Wonder how this will end up playing out.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I live in Hartford and it will make no difference. Downtown has been bustling this entire time. Yes the bars are closed but every restaurant does curbside and patrons are often just getting out of the car to walk in and pick up. Ace Hardware has been slammed every weekend. Walmart is as crowded as ever every Saturday.

[jerichoholicninja]

Re: Immunity After Getting It

 

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/23/21219028/covid-19-immunity-testing-reinfection-antibodies-explained

 

A long read but it seems like those who have recovered from it will probably have some sort of immunity. For how long and to what extent is unknown.

 

There have been reports of a few patients out of China who had mild symptoms of Covid-19 who did not have detectable neutralizing antibodies after recovery, though they did have another form of antibody that binds to the virus. “It’s unclear whether they have protective immunity,” Nature reports.

 

That part seems the most concerning. Since the vast majority of people have mild to no symptoms, if true, the overwhelming majority of people will have little to no immunity going forward.

 

While this outbreak has been ghastly, it has not been so bad as to bring about herd immunity in any quick time frame. There have been some — imperfect — serological studies that suggest the virus has infected more people than previously estimated. But even if true, the studies don’t mean we’re anywhere close to achieving herd immunity.

 

Yay.

[owbc]

My spouse's company (a medium-sized tech company) just announced that voluntary work-from-home will be permitted "at least through the end of 2020".

[MrTPlush]

Wisconsin testing capacity has ballooned to almost 11k per day. So we got that going for us. Actual tests ran has nearly tripled over just days ago. From reported hospitalizations (Wisconsin hospitals aren't required to provide this and 1/5 patients is unknown) it has been slowly declining over the last week...as a percentage of overall cases.

 

So even with the Brown County outbreak we are overall still doing pretty solid overall.

 

Should be interesting to watch some of these states lifting restrictions. They get to test it out for us. Many predict huge spikes there, but then again everyone thought that for our election too. That didn’t end up happening at all.

 

 

ADD ON: Wisconsin DHS also stopped hiding recovered data. 46% have recovered, 5% have died, and 49% are actual active cases.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wisconsin testing capacity has ballooned to almost 11k per day. So we got that going for us. Actual tests ran has nearly tripled over just days ago. From reported hospitalizations (Wisconsin hospitals aren't required to provide this and 1/5 patients is unknown) it has been slowly declining over the last week...as a percentage of overall cases.

 

So even with the Brown County outbreak we are overall still doing pretty solid overall.

 

Should be interesting to watch some of these states lifting restrictions. They get to test it out for us. Many predict huge spikes there, but then again everyone thought that for our election too. That didn’t end up happening at all.

 

Areas that finally do ramp up testing significantly will see many more cases, but I doubt that spike will lead to significant increases in hospitalizations - which is the critical element that needs to be tracked. More testing on more of the population will simply lead to the realization coronavirus has spread to many more people than presently assumed and not seeing the spike in hospitalizations will help reinforce it isn't as deadly as even currently presumed.

 

As for tracking states that reopen versus states that don't...I honestly don't think we will see a significant difference between the two, because of how widespread the virus already is. Even the states that are reopening are going to restrict large public gatherings and set limits on capacity for people in restaurants, bars, stores, etc. That plus elderly/vulnerable people need to continue isolating/protecting themselves regardless of what state they live in. Maybe I'm too naive, but I give people the benefit of the doubt where they aren't all going to pile on top of each other in states that largely reopen just because they can. It wouldn't surprise me to see states with orders currently extended into late May turn them into swiss cheese before they expire by continuing to allow more types of businesses/activities to resume operating - which should be the case if data continues to show no difference between sheltering and opening states. That will prove to be the temporary "new normal" everywhere starting a few weeks from now, and we'll just see how things progress into the summer.

[FVBrewerFan]

Wisconsin testing capacity has ballooned to almost 11k per day. So we got that going for us. Actual tests ran has nearly tripled over just days ago. From reported hospitalizations (Wisconsin hospitals aren't required to provide this and 1/5 patients is unknown) it has been slowly declining over the last week...as a percentage of overall cases.

 

So even with the Brown County outbreak we are overall still doing pretty solid overall.

 

Should be interesting to watch some of these states lifting restrictions. They get to test it out for us. Many predict huge spikes there, but then again everyone thought that for our election too. That didn’t end up happening at all.

 

Areas that finally do ramp up testing significantly will see many more cases, but I doubt that spike will lead to significant increases in hospitalizations - which is the critical element that needs to be tracked. More testing on more of the population will simply lead to the realization coronavirus has spread to many more people than presently assumed and not seeing the spike in hospitalizations will help reinforce it isn't as deadly as even currently presumed.

 

As for tracking states that reopen versus states that don't...I honestly don't think we will see a significant difference between the two, because of how widespread the virus already is. Even the states that are reopening are going to restrict large public gatherings and set limits on capacity for people in restaurants, bars, stores, etc. That plus elderly/vulnerable people need to continue isolating/protecting themselves regardless of what state they live in. Maybe I'm too naive, but I give people the benefit of the doubt where they aren't all going to pile on top of each other in states that largely reopen just because they can. It wouldn't surprise me to see states with orders currently extended into late May turn them into swiss cheese before they expire by continuing to allow more types of businesses/activities to resume operating - which should be the case if data continues to show no difference between sheltering and opening states. That will prove to be the temporary "new normal" everywhere starting a few weeks from now, and we'll just see how things progress into the summer.

 

Yea, the hospitalization trend line should really be the determining factor in getting through the phases. When you read through what is involved in Phase 1, either nationally or in WI, there's little reason why the vast majority of the country can't be in Phase 1 by 5/1. If this happens tomorrow or 9/1 there's going to be hot spots that need to be knocked down. Wisconsin should go right to Phase 2 by 5/15 if hospitalization stays steady. Case numbers, test numbers, etc. are just a bad way to benchmark the risk.

[igor67]

The testing increases are a positive sign both from increasing capacity and if you couple that with even a flatline in hospitalizations it suggests you are getting closer to closing the gap of the unknown number of infected. It doesn't indicate where everyone is on the contact tracing capacity though, which we are going to need or those trends will reverse.

[jerichoholicninja]

My wife's hospital now has a surplus of tests and will be testing every person they admit. (They have had zero COVID patients admitted so far). Will be really interesting to see what kind of info they get from that.

[Jimbo]

Does anyone know why Georgia has developed into a hot spot the last few days? The other states I can understand. GA has Atlanta, but lacks other major population centers.

 

Check their population age demographics, and it wouldn't surprise me if they happen to be a state with a larger percentage of people with comorbidities that covid 19 is difficult on. Plus ATL was the busiest airport in the country last time I checked. GA was actually among the earliest group of states with cases, they have probably gotten around to testing on a more rapid pace so the total confirmed numbers appear to be spiking

 

Today I see their hotspot is away from ATL, instead the southwest part of the state. With their recent actions, will be very interesting to see what becomes of this.

[Samurai Bucky]

Hmmm... I guess the magical unicorn that was previously mentioned as a major helper for small businesses made a detour to larger, publicly traded companies. That would explain why a company of three people who applied twice can't get a loan.

 

 

But the research shows that several of the companies that have received aid have market values well in excess of $100 million, including DMC Global ($405 million), Wave Life Sciences ($286 million) and Fiesta Restaurant Group ($189 million). Fiesta, which employs more than 10,000 people, according to its last reported annual number, received a PPP loan of $10 million, Morgan Stanley’s data showed.

 

https://www.orthospinenews.com/2020/04/22/here-are-the-largest-public-companies-taking-payroll-loans-meant-for-small-businesses/

 

Who in the heck approved these loans?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

40 cases in Milwaukee alone are now being linked directly to the April 7 election.

 

Freedom! 'Merica!!!

[Fear The Chorizo]

40 cases in Milwaukee alone are now being linked directly to the April 7 election.

 

Freedom! 'Merica!!!

 

That total falls in line with an overall statewide reduction in infection rate for the state following the primary as compared to before it:

 

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/health-med-fit/no-bump-in-covid-19-rates-after-wisconsins-april-7-election-study-says/article_b1aade1d-abec-5fc2-92fb-e1c64ccbc92f.html

 

There's no way to directly and reliably link specific Covid-19 infections to individuals actually voting compared to performing any other task where they may have come in contact with the virus in the same timeframe that would lead to them getting infected. You have to look at overall statewide infections, and frankly that's probably also too unreliable at this point because results are only as good as # of people tested.

 

the statewide rate of infection has dropped since early April, not risen. If something like in person voting was a significant cause of infections compared to other everyday tasks people have been doing, that infection rate would have spiked over the last two weeks. Not saying that nobody was infected while going to vote - but likely just as many if not many more got infected that same day getting groceries or getting gas at the pump. I said before the election happened that there won't be "proof" either way, just opinions - because there's just no way to accurately assess the impact of something like an election compared to everything else when there's no way to have a good handle on where the virus was across the population on April 6 versus immediately after.

[PeaveyFury]

Not saying that nobody was infected while going to vote - but likely just as many if not many more got infected that same day getting groceries or getting gas at the pump. I said before the election happened that there won't be "proof" either way, just opinions

 

I'd bet that there must be fairly convincing evidence for them to make a 'directly linked' claim that goes beyond 'opinion'. You don't make a claim like that based on a gut feeling.....

[MrTPlush]

Yup, they studied it and there was no spike due to the election. I also agree there is no reliable way to connect any infection to the election...especially in a place like Milwaukee where the virus is quite widespread. In Milwaukee you’d have a solid chance getting infected anywhere in public.

 

Some surely got infected at the elections, but it ended up microscopic. No more dangerous than going to the grocery store or visiting some friends.

 

Should be interesting to see if Evers would end the shutdown early. Something tells me he will find an excuse to drag it to May 26th unless rates, deaths, etc. just plummet. Of course it’s too early to truly know if that could be a possibility.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yup, they studied it and there was no spike due to the election. I also agree there is no reliable way to connect any infection to the election...especially in a place like Milwaukee where the virus is quite widespread. In Milwaukee you’d have a solid chance getting infected anywhere in public.

 

Some surely got infected at the elections, but it ended up microscopic. No more dangerous than going to the grocery store or visiting some friends.

 

Should be interesting to see if Evers would end the shutdown early. Something tells me he will find an excuse to drag it to May 26th unless rates, deaths, etc. just plummet. Of course it’s too early to truly know if that could be a possibility.

 

The 9:55 p.m. update here seems to indicate otherwise.

 

9:55 p.m.: 40 coronavirus cases in Milwaukee now thought to be tied to April 7 election, health commissioner says

The number of coronavirus cases linked to the controversial April 7 election appears to be more than five times greater than originally thought.

 

In a Friday media briefing, Health Commissioner Jeanette Kowalik noted that she originally reported there were seven suspected coronavirus cases found in people who voted on election day or worked at the polls

 

"Now there's 40 people that showed up," she said. "We're analyzing more to show the connections between the people."

 

The department was analyzing data from election day, a process she said she hoped would be completed by May 1. She did not elaborate, telling reporters to "stay tuned."

 

 

Gov. Tony Evers attempted to delay the election out of fears that masses of people at polling places would result in more people contracting the deadly COVID-19 disease. The governor's eleventh-hour bid was blocked by the Republican-dominated state Legislature and Supreme Court.

 

—Cary Spivak

[jerichoholicninja]

Re: Immunity After Getting It

 

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/23/21219028/covid-19-immunity-testing-reinfection-antibodies-explained

 

A long read but it seems like those who have recovered from it will probably have some sort of immunity. For how long and to what extent is unknown.

 

There have been reports of a few patients out of China who had mild symptoms of Covid-19 who did not have detectable neutralizing antibodies after recovery, though they did have another form of antibody that binds to the virus. “It’s unclear whether they have protective immunity,” Nature reports.

 

That part seems the most concerning. Since the vast majority of people have mild to no symptoms, if true, the overwhelming majority of people will have little to no immunity going forward.

 

While this outbreak has been ghastly, it has not been so bad as to bring about herd immunity in any quick time frame. There have been some — imperfect — serological studies that suggest the virus has infected more people than previously estimated. But even if true, the studies don’t mean we’re anywhere close to achieving herd immunity.

 

Yay.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-25/catching-covid-19-may-not-shield-against-new-infection-who-says?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

 

Catching Covid-19 once may not protect you from getting it again, according to the World Health Organization, a finding that could jeopardize efforts to allow people to return to work after recovering from the virus.

 

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,” the United Nations agency said in an April 24 statement.

 

Well, maybe there's no immunity after all.

[MrTPlush]

40 cases in people who went to the polls or worked them...in the biggest city in Wisconsin by far? 40 cases? That’s nothing, especially when a huge chunk of them probably didn’t get it going to the election. Doesn’t Milwaukee see dozens of new cases a day? There is no way to prove those people got infected day of the election, before the election, or even a week after. I’m sure many of those people have left the house for other things (groceries) where they would have had a high possibility of getting infected.

 

Even if all 40 got it at the election (they surely all didn’t) that would confirm there was in fact no spike. Probably a good thing too as it shows maybe we can open some things up without fear of huge spikes making us take a step back if we take proper precautions.

[PeaveyFury]

There is no way to prove those people got infected day of the election

 

Again, for them to link the two, they have to have something beyond a 'gut feeling.'

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There is no way to prove those people got infected day of the election

 

Again, for them to link the two, they have to have something beyond a 'gut feeling.'

 

As far as I'm concerned, it's 40 cases that could have been avoided. If you want a reason why this lockdown is going to last longer than any of us want, it's because of irresponsible actions like this.