COVID-19 Thread

[DuWayne Steurer]

Why anyone would be concerned with harming the "reputation" of these guys is beyond me. Wow. 5 minutes of reading tells you all you need to know about this company. Their reputation preceeds itself.

[stalton]

Just reading the news articles about JBS's corrolation spike in positive cases across the Midwest is staggering. I'm sure there are plenty of facilities with sub standard practices but this trend is horrifying.

[FVBrewerFan]

Reilly, thanks for the in depth explanation of how and why Covid is impacting the ability of healthcare facilities to provide care.

 

I recently had a neurology appointment and it was cancelled. I had another neurology appointment and it was made into a "by phone" appointment.

 

I had a minor heart procedure (ok, not really minor, but common), a heart catheter, and the day before, I had to go to a Covid testing site, get "cleared" and then I could go to the hospital and get the procedure. The only reason the heart procedure wasn't cancelled or delayed was because it was considered necessary and needed to be done ASAP. (and it did need to be done ASAP, based on what was found, thank goodness we got in when we did). There were extra hoops to jump through, and I don't mind that I had to do it. I understand why it was.

 

I have to do cardio rehab starting this week, and for the foreseeable future, most of my rehab appointments are going to be via phone or some sort of video chat or conferencing. That's just how it is, and I'm ok with that.

You are welcome, and please take care at this time.

 

I hear about this stuff from my wife everyday. It has been brutally hard - and immensely frustrating for them. They have a million people telling them how to do stuff or saying they're doing this or that wrong - when they are hamstrung by the lack of testing capability.

 

To be honest - that (the lack of testing) is the #1 issue right now with the pandemic. This is, unlike the seasonal flu or SARS or MERS or whatever, a virus that can be transmitted by people who don't show any symptoms. That's huge. For all these other viruses, if a person shows signs of being sick (cough, fever, etc.), you can quickly isolate them and limit the threat they pose. But not with COVID-19. That's why we need testing so badly.

 

Healthcare systems desperately want to start doing all the 'normal' stuff they do -- surgeries, checkups, etc. But they have to be very careful. As I said in my previous post, healthcare locations are usually the #1 place where sicknesses like the flu get passed around. More testing is the only way to prevent that.

 

Sorry, but I think you're answering a different question than what was asked. Testing had/has nothing to do with why hospitals and clinics aren't handling anything non-critical. They were asked by CDC, FEMA, and others to save capacity for the crush of Covid-19 patients. That was the reason, and now that's it's clear there will be no crush we'll see the medical facilites get back to normal. There will be massive testing available everywhere very soon. In many places it already exists, not all governers are equally effective.

 

The goal posts keep moving though. I was told early and often here flattening the curve was the reason for shutting down. Fine, it's flattened. In fact in WI it always was flat. Then we heard nit enoufh beds....not enough ventilators...none oh which was ever true. Now its testing...wait for a vaccine...wait until every person can get tested every day. None of that was the original reason for staying at home.

[PeaveyFury]

I was told early and often here flattening the curve was the reason for shutting down. Fine, it's flattened.

 

The goal is to keep it flat.

[superfly]

I was told early and often here flattening the curve was the reason for shutting down. Fine, it's flattened.

 

The goal is to keep it flat.

 

That was not the goal. The goal was to flatten the curve which would buy the hospitals some time to prepare for the onslaught (which we can see is likely not coming now). It was not to sit in perpetual lockdown until our overlords say it’s safe to come outside. Sorry, I meant to say the more woke “safer at home” phrase.

 

I’m sorry to seem coarse when I say this, but unless this virus gets significantly more dangerous than it currently is, we need to isolate the old and immunocompromised as best we can, and the population needs to begin going back to as normal a life as possible. Especially the younger folks. We are digging a grave here by sitting around in this 60+ degree weather with bright sunshine and it WILL come back in the winter and do damage. We need as many people with antibodies as fast as possible. We can do it, if our grandfathers could muster the courage to storm Normandy beach we can handle getting back to life while practicing SAFE precautions and get past this virus.

[Vgmastr]

I was told early and often here flattening the curve was the reason for shutting down. Fine, it's flattened.

 

The goal is to keep it flat.

 

That was not the goal. The goal was to flatten the curve which would buy the hospitals some time to prepare for the onslaught (which we can see is likely not coming now). It was not to sit in perpetual lockdown until our overlords say it’s safe to come outside. Sorry, I meant to say the more woke “safer at home” phrase.

 

The onslaught hasn't come because safer at home is working. If you open things back up without widespread testing available to keep it contained you run the risk of the onslaught arriving.

[PeaveyFury]

That was not the goal. The goal was to flatten the curve which would buy the hospitals some time to prepare for the onslaught

 

They're re-using surgical masks, making direct deals with suppliers and bidding against other hospitals to acquire the materials they need. Doctors and nurses are working around the clock, and there's no real progression in treatment plans and no vaccine in sight. That doesn't seem like they're managing ok. Some areas are doing better than others, obviously. The goal of extending the order is to make sure the onslaught doesn't come because the social distancing is working.

 

We can do it, if our grandfathers could muster the courage to storm Normandy beach we can handle getting back to life while practicing SAFE precautions and get past this virus.

 

Our grandfathers gave up so much for such a selfless cause, and it's astoundingly remarkable that after what, five weeks of being asked just to stay in our homes, in an era of video games, streaming services, Amazon, and food delivery, people are holding protests and clamoring for their Governors to open Buffalo Wild Wings.

 

That mindset literally puts those very grandfathers in harm's way in this case.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I was told early and often here flattening the curve was the reason for shutting down. Fine, it's flattened.

 

The goal is to keep it flat.

 

The only way it stays flat indefinitely is if powers that be and the masses are both willing to sacrifice their livelihoods and risk getting sicker from all the other maladies that require more than a teladoc appointment to diagnose. That simply wont happen, and frankly it's not the right way to look at how to deal with this virus over the next few months.

 

I'd rather a spike in infections happen this summer in the US, during times when higher humidity levels help to weigh down aerosol-borne virus particles and knock them out of the breathing zone much faster than during winter (drier air)....which will ultimately help to slow the rate of spread. The other option is to delay, delay, delay, create another economic depression, likely leading to riots and borderline marshall law, then see the inevitable spike this fall/winter during the worst possible time of year, as the normal flu season also ramps up.

 

Also, state governments are starting to hold their hands out after realizing the fiscal calamity this is bringing on themselves. An IL state senator wants to ask for roughly 50 billion in federal aid for their state alone (the original CARES act allotted 250 billion in aid for 50 states total)...of which at least 10 billion of that request would just go straight to trying to fill the hole in their broken pension fund, which was broken back in february before this cratered their tax receipts. Never let a good crisis go to waste, I guess.

[PeaveyFury]

I was told early and often here flattening the curve was the reason for shutting down. Fine, it's flattened.

 

The goal is to keep it flat.

 

The only way it stays flat indefinitely is if powers that be and the masses are both willing to sacrifice their livelihoods and risk getting sicker from all the other maladies that require more than a teladoc appointment to diagnose. That simply wont happen, and frankly it's not the right way to look at how to deal with this virus over the next few months.

 

How will all those maladies be dealt with with an overwhelmed medical system? You've repeatedly cited the Minnesota study, which projects their hospitals to reach capacity in June, while waiting a few weeks pushes that out several weeks. If the 'best case scenarios' show an overwhelmed medical system in mid-summer, who exactly is being helped by that?

 

 

I'd rather a spike in infections happen this summer in the US, during times when higher humidity levels help to weigh down aerosol-borne virus particles and knock them out of the breathing zone much faster than during winter (drier air)

 

Have there been any studies as to the effects of the weather (or the expected effects) on COVID-19? A lot of that was still speculative fairly recently. It would be reassuring to know for sure that the summer will help.

[homer]

Higher humidity doesn't seem to have impacted the virus in Louisiana.

[adambr2]

High heat and humidity definitely reduces the spread of COVID-19. Or, it doesn't at all. Seriously, just Google it and you'll find studies that reach both of those conclusions. It's no wonder no one knows what to believe and why no one can agree on anything.

[igor67]

superfly the term your looking for is motivated reasoning. Which is why you have down played this from the beginning with now blatantly ridiculous predictions like 'this will just be a bad flu season'. Well the average number of flu deaths in the US over the last 9 years is just over 34,000. We crossed 40,000 over the weekend. That is in less than 2 months, the flu season is 6 months from October-March with very small numbers outside of those times. So this is problematic for the summer will save us notion given we are already well past the time when the seasonal benefits kick in. We also know that unlike the old flu numbers which are adjusted for systematic under counting our current totals for covid aren't.

 

The highest total for a bad flu season is 61,000, which was the year the vaccine had such low effectiveness. So if you take under counted numbers in less than 2 months and multiply by 3. You end up with twice the deaths of a bad season even in the face of substantial mitigation.

 

Perhaps more troubling there are now multiple outbreaks at food packaging/processing facilities under current conditions. Significant disruptions to food supply chains would be problematic to say the least.

[homer]

High heat and humidity definitely reduces the spread of COVID-19. Or, it doesn't at all. Seriously, just Google it and you'll find studies that reach both of those conclusions. It's no wonder no one knows what to believe and why no one can agree on anything.

 

There are a lot of studies and models out there and its easy to follow those that support one's biases. I fall into that trap once in a while. There's that Stanford study in Santa Clara County right now showing something like 50 - 80x more people have had the virus than have tested positive (which is all the more reason for massive uptick in testing) and people are using it as justification for the "it's only the flu" argument when the researchers themselves say it's just one study in one very specific (self selected) population group. If they can replicate that all over the place then sure then by all means adjust accordingly but you can't use one set of results to do that. That isn't how science works.

 

The fact remains that we don't know a lot about the virus which is why continuous study is so important. Equally as important though is to not assume any single study is conclusive.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The National Academies (that is to say, the best experts the US can muster) just released a rapid report summarizing what is known about temperature dependence. The answer is that the data we have are inconclusive; laboratory studies show virus survival decreases with increased temperature and humidity but real world transmission data shows warm locations (e.g., Iran) with rapid virus spread. One study said both cold and hot temperatures were less conducive to spread than moderate temperatures, but that many factors other than temperature are contributing to transmission. None of the studies people cite are without flaws, and these experts note conflicting results, poor data quality, and multiple potentially confounding effects. Other coronavirus outbreaks (SARS, MERS) have not shown seasonal effects.

 

The famous 1918 flu pandemic did subside in summer, but this brief paper notes that there have been ten flu pandemics documented in 250 years, and there is no pattern as to when they started: two in northern hemisphere winter, three in spring, two in summer, three in fall. "All had a peak second wave approximately six months after emergence of the virus in human population, REGARDLESS OF WHEN THE INITIAL INTRODUCTION OCCURRED." [emphasis mine]

 

Anyone who claims they are certain that warm temperatures will slow or stop this thing without other interventions is speculating and/or wishing, at best. At worst they are deceptive and motivated by concerns other than public health. The stakes are too high to base policy decisions on poor science or hunches.

 

https://www.nap.edu/read/25771/chapter/1#6

[thebruce44]

We can do it, if our grandfathers could muster the courage to storm Normandy beach we can handle getting back to life while practicing SAFE precautions and get past this virus.

 

Our grandfathers gave up so much for such a selfless cause, and it's astoundingly remarkable that after what, five weeks of being asked just to stay in our homes, in an era of video games, streaming services, Amazon, and food delivery, people are holding protests and clamoring for their Governors to open Buffalo Wild Wings.

 

That mindset literally puts those very grandfathers in harm's way in this case.

 

Well said PeaveyFury. I don't mean for the following to get political, I am just trying to gather my thoughts because it seems as though there is a logic breakdown going on with the people who want to open things back up.

 

The individuals protesting Safe At Home Orders of wanting to be Liberated are doing so because they feel as though these policies are negatively impacting them financially. They are not considering the counter argument, that they could instead be demanding more Government Stimulus, especially cash payouts or rent/mortgage deferment. If you look around the world you see what other developed countries are doing and what is happening here doesn't make sense to me.

 

If you tell people to stay home and reduce or eliminate incomes, then you need to provide essentials like food and shelter. A one time payment of $1200 is nothing. Instead we have some members of our government supporting protesting the very thing that is keeping this from getting significantly worse. How is this happening?

[jerichoholicninja]

Reilly, thanks for the in depth explanation of how and why Covid is impacting the ability of healthcare facilities to provide care.

 

I recently had a neurology appointment and it was cancelled. I had another neurology appointment and it was made into a "by phone" appointment.

 

I had a minor heart procedure (ok, not really minor, but common), a heart catheter, and the day before, I had to go to a Covid testing site, get "cleared" and then I could go to the hospital and get the procedure. The only reason the heart procedure wasn't cancelled or delayed was because it was considered necessary and needed to be done ASAP. (and it did need to be done ASAP, based on what was found, thank goodness we got in when we did). There were extra hoops to jump through, and I don't mind that I had to do it. I understand why it was.

 

I have to do cardio rehab starting this week, and for the foreseeable future, most of my rehab appointments are going to be via phone or some sort of video chat or conferencing. That's just how it is, and I'm ok with that.

You are welcome, and please take care at this time.

 

I hear about this stuff from my wife everyday. It has been brutally hard - and immensely frustrating for them. They have a million people telling them how to do stuff or saying they're doing this or that wrong - when they are hamstrung by the lack of testing capability.

 

To be honest - that (the lack of testing) is the #1 issue right now with the pandemic. This is, unlike the seasonal flu or SARS or MERS or whatever, a virus that can be transmitted by people who don't show any symptoms. That's huge. For all these other viruses, if a person shows signs of being sick (cough, fever, etc.), you can quickly isolate them and limit the threat they pose. But not with COVID-19. That's why we need testing so badly.

 

Healthcare systems desperately want to start doing all the 'normal' stuff they do -- surgeries, checkups, etc. But they have to be very careful. As I said in my previous post, healthcare locations are usually the #1 place where sicknesses like the flu get passed around. More testing is the only way to prevent that.

 

Aurora is going to start doing elective procedures again soon. Maybe not all of the Aurora locations but my wife's will. They were told in a meeting last week. Her hospital has had zero COIVD patients and have had only a couple positive tests.

[AmFamFan]

I think a major issue is that we all look at this through our own lens and geographic location. In my situation I own a small business that is getting closer and closer to bankruptcy every day that the Safe at Home Order is on. I am in rural Northern WI in a county that had 6 total cases of which 5 are recovered. I have a wife that had a tumor found in her body a week before the lock down and since had her biopsy canceled with no ability to reschedule at this point. I also have a bed ridden mother in law that was supposed to get knee surgery today and also had her surgery canceled. Neither one are doing well emotionally. To top this off we just found out last night that the hospitals in our areas are furloughing their staff because there is a lack of patients in the hospital! This is truly insane. The blanket Stay at Home Order was premature and harmful to more than half of Wisconsin's residents. This should have been handled on a county by county basis with a no travel order from those counties that have an issue and a staged re-opening of those counties that are not so largely effected.

[JosephC]

High heat and humidity definitely reduces the spread of COVID-19. Or, it doesn't at all. Seriously, just Google it and you'll find studies that reach both of those conclusions. It's no wonder no one knows what to believe and why no one can agree on anything.

 

There are a lot of studies and models out there and its easy to follow those that support one's biases. I fall into that trap once in a while. There's that Stanford study in Santa Clara County right now showing something like 50 - 80x more people have had the virus than have tested positive (which is all the more reason for massive uptick in testing) and people are using it as justification for the "it's only the flu" argument when the researchers themselves say it's just one study in one very specific (self selected) population group. If they can replicate that all over the place then sure then by all means adjust accordingly but you can't use one set of results to do that. That isn't how science works.

 

The fact remains that we don't know a lot about the virus which is why continuous study is so important. Equally as important though is to not assume any single study is conclusive.

 

One big issue is that, to my knowledge, there has been no actual controlled studies done to test the rate of transmission. If you actually want to do something like that it would require the following: set up a community of 1000 people all testing negative, set up a community of 1000 people with 5 testing positive, set up a community of 1000 people with 20 testing positive, then set up three more groups just like that and run one set of three under a stay-at-home order and the other set of three with no stay-at-home order....test every member of all 6 communities once per week and after 8-12 weeks apply the statistics on hard data and report the results. That is science.

 

Currently all there is are statisticians plugging numbers into models but the models don't have any proven, reliable COVID-19 data which makes it nothing more than a guessing game. And this is science? Pretty bad science then as these experts seem to come up with a completely different set of numbers every week.

 

I still believe Spain is the #1 in known positive cases of all countries with "major" populations. 200,210 positive cases/46,754,778 people = infection rate of 0.428%. Far cry from the 60% infected projections we were seeing a few weeks ago.

[PeaveyFury]

The blanket Stay at Home Order was premature and harmful to more than half of Wisconsin's residents. This should have been handled on a county by county basis with a no travel order from those counties that have an issue and a staged re-opening of those counties that are not so largely effected.

 

I think this has come up a number of times in a similar context, but I believe you're incorrectly blaming the 'stay at home' order, rather than hospital policy.

 

Best wishes to your wife.

[AmFamFan]

Then why does the hospital keep sighting the Stay at Home order when we call and try and demand to set up their appointments? They keep telling us they have been ordered to "keep open capacity" do to the governors Stay at Home order.

[PeaveyFury]

Then why does the hospital keep sighting the Stay at Home order when we call and try and demand to set up their appointments? They keep telling us they have been ordered to "keep open capacity" do to the governors Stay at Home order.

 

Not sure, honestly. Maybe the receptionist/scheduler doesn't know the ins-and-outs of the hospital's policies?

 

Here is the actual order, for those that haven't read it:

 

https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO12-SaferAtHome.pdf

 

The only restrictions actually placed on healthcare providers is that 'telehealth services should be used where feasible'. Most of the hospital 'elective procedure' cancellations were enacted by the hospitals themselves prior to the 'stay at home' order itself.

[thebruce44]

Then why does the hospital keep sighting the Stay at Home order when we call and try and demand to set up their appointments? They keep telling us they have been ordered to "keep open capacity" do to the governors Stay at Home order.

 

Not sure, honestly. Maybe the receptionist/scheduler doesn't know the ins-and-outs of the hospital's policies?

 

Here is the actual order, for those that haven't read it:

 

https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO12-SaferAtHome.pdf

 

The only restrictions actually placed on healthcare providers is that 'telehealth services should be used where feasible'. Most of the hospital 'elective procedure' cancellations were enacted by the hospitals themselves prior to the 'stay at home' order itself.

 

My own speculation here, but I think healthcare workers are afraid and so hospitals are putting off whatever they can due to staffing concerns. It is easy to blame the stay at home order since most people probably didn't read it. That is how it has been with the first responder programs that I run.

[adambr2]

High heat and humidity definitely reduces the spread of COVID-19. Or, it doesn't at all. Seriously, just Google it and you'll find studies that reach both of those conclusions. It's no wonder no one knows what to believe and why no one can agree on anything.

 

There are a lot of studies and models out there and its easy to follow those that support one's biases. I fall into that trap once in a while. There's that Stanford study in Santa Clara County right now showing something like 50 - 80x more people have had the virus than have tested positive (which is all the more reason for massive uptick in testing) and people are using it as justification for the "it's only the flu" argument when the researchers themselves say it's just one study in one very specific (self selected) population group. If they can replicate that all over the place then sure then by all means adjust accordingly but you can't use one set of results to do that. That isn't how science works.

 

The fact remains that we don't know a lot about the virus which is why continuous study is so important. Equally as important though is to not assume any single study is conclusive.

 

Well said. On almost any hot button issue, not just weather re: COVID-19, it's so easy to reinforce your own biases just in your own information gathering.

 

That's why it's so important to research, be open-minded in your research and not trust your Facebook friends' opinions.

 

Agreed that one of the biggest issues with COVID-19 is all the unknown. Hopefully when we're discussing it a year from now, we'll have a great deal more scientific understanding on weather effects, antibody immunity, vaccination and immunity timetables, testing, potential drug treatments and worst case mortality rates.

 

We know more than we did a month ago, but we still don't really know much.

[igor67]

County by county ends up making less sense when you realize your a pretty significant percentage of people regularly cross county boundaries for grocery runs and essential jobs. My in-laws have a 7 minute car trip one way to the grocery store in a different county, and a 15 minute trip the other direction in a 3rd county. As things get more spaced out in MN and WI you'll have all kinds of people wondering why they would have to travel halfway across the county, when this other town is so much closer. How about the Dells, it actually sits in 4 different counties. Marshfield sits in two.

 

As for referring to the modelling as bad science? This is how it actually works all the time. It is not the magical answer producing in a few hours nonsense you see on TV or in the movies. Models are built, tested improved over and over again with cycles of critique and publication. The more potential variables the broader the range of outcomes ends up. So biological sciences (especially humans with all of that free will and changing behavior) tend to have wider confidence intervals then physical sciences. Most organisms take so long to grow you wouldn't be through even 1 experiment yet.

[stoutdude04]

Then why does the hospital keep sighting the Stay at Home order when we call and try and demand to set up their appointments? They keep telling us they have been ordered to "keep open capacity" do to the governors Stay at Home order.

 

Not sure, honestly. Maybe the receptionist/scheduler doesn't know the ins-and-outs of the hospital's policies?

 

Here is the actual order, for those that haven't read it:

 

https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO12-SaferAtHome.pdf

 

The only restrictions actually placed on healthcare providers is that 'telehealth services should be used where feasible'. Most of the hospital 'elective procedure' cancellations were enacted by the hospitals themselves prior to the 'stay at home' order itself.

 

I think this is part of an even greater issue. No one reads information for themselves and when they do they struggle to figure out what to believe and not to believe.

 

This has out tremendous pressure on a lot of people, and I admittedly have it relatively easy compared to most, but I too am shocked we haven't demanded more from our government. And I am not just talking about money either, but it is eye opening seeing how little America is getting compared to others around the world.