COVID-19 Thread

[igor67]

Best of luck on the procedure.

 

On a similar downer note there appears to be more evidence emerging of some rather significant undercounting of the the death toll, now in Spain. I had posted about a week ago that in parts of Northern Italy the total death rate in March was substantially higher than both the historical averages for the time of year and reported Covid deaths together. At least parts of Spain are showing a similar trend. In both cases it appears that you could conservatively double the current death toll and still have some extra deaths left over. This turns out to be a common issue, the CDC has to account for routine under reporting of flu caused deaths every year, and periodically does studies to help them quantify the affect. Trying to talk numbers too seriously seems very unwise since there are plenty of differences in how and when tests are administered to both groups so you can't just use the flu percentage of undercounting. I also learned while tracking some of this down that trying to deal with data collection and all of the correction factors they need means final estimates of yearly flu deaths are not finalized for up to 2 years. Reading between the lines of their methods I suspect that dealing with the patchwork of non-standardized local reporting systems (aka Death Certificates) is a big slow down. So we are probably stuck with reliable enough numbers for the time being.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Due to my pending surgery tomorrow I was required to get covid-19 screening today. I had to go to the drive-thru screening Center in Middleton. Talk about looking like something out of a sci fi movie. Tents with a bunch of Techs in sealed bio suits. I'm pretty sure the Lance that used to take the specimen out of my sinus cavity almost touched the back my skull. That Tech was rooting around for a good 30 seconds.

[jerichoholicninja]

https://www.businessinsider.com/social-distancing-might-be-necessary-into-2022-harvard-analysis-2020-4?fbclid=IwAR1f7yhXue1PynYaXzvnDahF0TbiZhozqKBwzBL54UMTSeJFYuwED-Du7wo

 

As parts of the US reach the peak of their first wave of coronavirus infections, officials and experts are trying to discern what lies on the other side. According to infectious-disease researchers at Harvard, that could be another two years of on-and-off social distancing.

 

Sorry, society is going to implode if we're looking at another two years of this, even if only "on and off".

[homer]

Pretty good comparison of Covid to other infectious diseases (SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-did-the-world-shut-down-for-covid-19-but-not-ebola-sars-or-swine-flu/

[homer]

Due to my pending surgery tomorrow I was required to get covid-19 screening today. I had to go to the drive-thru screening Center in Middleton. Talk about looking like something out of a sci fi movie. Tents with a bunch of Techs in sealed bio suits. I'm pretty sure the Lance that used to take the specimen out of my sinus cavity almost touched the back my skull. That Tech was rooting around for a good 30 seconds.

 

Good luck with your surgery, RoCo.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

https://www.businessinsider.com/social-distancing-might-be-necessary-into-2022-harvard-analysis-2020-4?fbclid=IwAR1f7yhXue1PynYaXzvnDahF0TbiZhozqKBwzBL54UMTSeJFYuwED-Du7wo

 

As parts of the US reach the peak of their first wave of coronavirus infections, officials and experts are trying to discern what lies on the other side. According to infectious-disease researchers at Harvard, that could be another two years of on-and-off social distancing.

 

Sorry, society is going to implode if we're looking at another two years of this, even if only "on and off".

 

If we are still social distancing two years from now because of this, it signifies a complete breakdown of the medicinal research industry. I would hope that they will have a vaccine, increased and more efficient testing and other treatment/avoidance options within six months max. We live in the most technologically advanced time in the country's and world's history, and so many resources are being devoted to this, there is no way it's going knock the world down for two years.

 

I imagine that everyone will eventually have access to a vaccine, and to electronic testing that can give you an answer on whether you've been exposed within seconds.

[homer]

I'd put money on an effective treatment before a vaccine.

[Samurai Bucky]

A quick update -- the magical unicorn known as the SBA is still not a reality for my company. Hurry up and wait.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd put money on an effective treatment before a vaccine.

 

100% this - and effective treatments would be ones that can be implemented in concert with an improved testing approach. It won't be one magical chemical treatment that will magically cure every serious case - there will be multiple treatments for various stages of the disease, and those treatments will be much easier to apply with a more prepared medical system as this initial surge of infections wanes. Improved testing will be something along the lines of statistically significant population antibody testing to better gauge the actual number of people who have not come into contact with coronavirus and therefore still have no immunity, combined with more rapid Covid-19 testing to limit the extent of infection clusters and isolate them faster.

 

Waiting for a vaccine to feel comfortable isn't a realistic option. Getting a better understanding of Covid-19 (which is happening on a daily basis), improving modeling parameters to better forecast impacts of future infection spikes, and adapting improved testing regimens will give us a high level of confidence on how to deal with this virus while living our lives - without needing to shutter everything again. IMO the high level of infectiousness of Covid-19 and growing evidence it isn't as lethal to younger populations and those with healthier immune systems makes it a virus that the world would benefit building a herd immunity against if it can be managed.

 

My gut tells me by the time there is a vaccine for Covid-19, there won't be a worldwide demand for distributing it with the goal to prevent outbreaks - similar to what happened with the SARS vaccine development. It will have value being distributed to vulnerable populations regardless of when it gets developed. What definitely needs to happen is the full development of a viable Covid-19 vaccine that includes appropriate trials, so it can serve as a good starting point for potential future outbreaks of viruses in the same family of coronavirus. From what I gather that wasn't completed with SARS, and that unfortunately prevented researchers/scientists from having a more advanced starting point on a coronavirus vaccine.

[igor67]

I think there is likely to be some demand for a vaccine by time it is done, but possibly not. Given this is the 3rd significant outbreak in this group in the last 20 years I imagine there will be on-going interest. They may even develop a system of sorts similar (using this very loosely) to how they can identify the flu strains and then build a safe vaccine in less than a year. I imagine it depends on how similar the viable vaccine ends up being.

[Jimbo]

Does anyone know why Georgia has developed into a hot spot the last few days? The other states I can understand. GA has Atlanta, but lacks other major population centers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Does anyone know why Georgia has developed into a hot spot the last few days? The other states I can understand. GA has Atlanta, but lacks other major population centers.

 

Check their population age demographics, and it wouldn't surprise me if they happen to be a state with a larger percentage of people with comorbidities that covid 19 is difficult on. Plus ATL was the busiest airport in the country last time I checked. GA was actually among the earliest group of states with cases, they have probably gotten around to testing on a more rapid pace so the total confirmed numbers appear to be spiking

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

[thebruce44]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

My wife and I were discussing something similar last night. A couple weeks back, basically the first week we were self quarantining, I had some of the worst back aches/cramping I've ever had. I typically have some issues, but the cramps and spasms were way beyond normal. Short of an antibody test, we will never know if we all had the virus and were mostly asymptomatic. It sure would be nice to know- my line of work is essential and if I had antibodies there is a lot more I could be doing that would be of value to the general public.

[homer]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

You can potentially get tested for anti-bodies at some point.

[MrTPlush]

Georgia’s quite late and still lackluster stay at home order probably does not help their cause.

 

I’m sure everyone could come up with a “wonder if that was coronavirus” sickness they had recently. Odds are incredibly low it was coronavirus unless you are aware of someone you came into close contact had it. Even people deemed necessary to get a test don’t have coronavirus 90% of the time (Wisconsin).

[homer]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

First confirmed case in Georgia was March 2. If you did have it you'd have been one of the very first cases in the state.

[igor67]

In other depressing news

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01011-6

 

Short version because of how other countries tend to run their vaccine programs a number of them are tailing off in the face of this epidemic and increasing the spread of measles. This increases the odds of causing problems in the US eventually because measles spreads at least 4 times better than Covid. I had mentioned some of this earlier, but various sub groups within the US do not have vaccine rates high enough to support herd immunity. Including parts of the upper midwest. While the fatality rate in the US is not large, it is large enough and it is known to have a high complication rate. These are potentially concerns for the normal immune compromised, too young to get the vaccine of course. The most random though is that 1-2% of people who are vaccinated never develop an actual immune response (this is common across vaccines).

[Fear The Chorizo]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

First confirmed case in Georgia was March 2. If you did have it you'd have been one of the very first cases in the state.

 

Was that first confirmed case a hospitalization/death? Based on some initial studies for every 1 of those there are probably dozens of completely asymptomatic cases/mild symptom cases that would have been afterthoughts to the individual infected at that time, also making them unwitting carriers of it wherever they went. When was the first testing even done in Georgia? Sounding like coronavirus was likely circulating in CA as far back as late December, in New York for sure by early February - ATL's airport makes Georgia a natural hub for coronavirus cases showing up there well before the US even started testing severe cases that led to hospitalizations.

 

While the theory of coronavirus spreading worldwide as far back as November appears to be incorrect, alot of things point to it reaching US travel hubs and start spreading at a community level well before any testing/screening results were done on travelers returning from supposed hot spots in late February/early March. It's definitely not far-fetched for coronavirus to be in ATL's airport in mid-february. That's even after many european countries were starting to see confirmed cases and realizing their testing was way behind where the virus had already spread. So initial Georgia infections wouldn't just be travel from China, it would include travel back from europe and many US cities as well.

[adambr2]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

First confirmed case in Georgia was March 2. If you did have it you'd have been one of the very first cases in the state.

 

In reality though there are probably many firsts in many states who never did and never will even register as a blip on the COVID-19 statistics simply because they weren't symptomatic enough to get to the point of being tested.

[homer]

Covid was not in California until February.

 

 

 

I'm pretty confident Covid was not floating around in 2019 anywhere in the US.

[superfly]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

My friends in Georgia are sure they had it at thanksgiving. All the symptoms, knocked out for a week+. When able they’re going in to see if they have antibodies. Have more than a couple friends that were sick with the same thing in Nov/Dec.

[adambr2]

Covid was not in California until February.

 

 

 

I'm pretty confident Covid was not floating around in 2019 anywhere in the US.

 

I'm not saying it was here in 2019, but the odds of it being around undetected before "Patient Zero" in many states is pretty high.

[homer]

I was in Georgia over Valentine's weekend. I had a layover in ATL and ended in Savannah where I spent three days. A few days after I got back, I had a mild cold. The only weird symptom was that I had a sort of shortness of breath and when I stressed even mildly, like jogging a little bit, it would get worse and I'd have to clear my throat over and over. That and a cough lingered for a long time, like 10 days or so. I'll always wonder if that was it.

 

My friends in Georgia are sure they had it at thanksgiving. All the symptoms, knocked out for a week+. When able they’re going in to see if they have antibodies. Have more than a couple friends that were sick with the same thing in Nov/Dec.

 

I don't think that's true. Not with the infection rate this thing carries. It would have blown up much sooner.

[homer]

Covid was not in California until February.

 

 

 

I'm pretty confident Covid was not floating around in 2019 anywhere in the US.

 

I'm not saying it was here in 2019, but the odds of it being around undetected before "Patient Zero" in many states is pretty high.

 

I would think patient zero would happen roughly the same time as the others were getting infected. I don't think there were only asymptomatics walking around for several weeks before someone was hospitalized. But it's possible I guess. Maybe they'll go back and test the flu samples in Georgia like they did in California.