COVID-19 Thread

[logan82]

Forgot to add the criteria for reporting a death as Covid-19 related is not standard. I am not against the social distancing at all. We need to do it to flatten the curve. I have a huge problem with people thinking that social distancing is supposed to keep them from getting the virus. This just isn't the case. Everyone is likely to get Covid-19 at some point unless we would go into a full quarantine. Our worst enemy to this point are the people treating this like the apocalypse and overbuying things which creates shortages and the people trying to escape big cities and making the spread worse. Admittedly the shortages are mostly an inconvenience unless you needed toilet paper up until about a week ago. Way too many people acting out of fear. Too much bad/misleading information.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not to be nitpicky, but 1600 X 100 / 5 million would be 3 percent, not 30 percent of Minnesota's population.

 

Ok, I guess that was nitpicky.

 

too much Easter whiskey for this guy...lol

[AmFamFan]

I know that I am probably in the minority but I really believe it is time to start opening things up and paring back the stay at home order in areas that are not seeing stress on the medical facilities. Covid-19 is virus, the only real way to fight a virus is with herd immunity. I would hate to be a leader of any state or country right now because these are hard decisions, but when the experts talk about flattening the curve it is literally trying to reduce the stress on our medical facilities, not eliminate the amount of people that will end up infected. By being in lockdown in areas that have little or no infections we are just delaying the inevitable. I understand the theory of being in lock down until a vaccine is available, but I would argue that waiting until a vaccine is available will lead to more hardship and deaths from other causes. Again, I am sure I am in the minority, and these are terrible decisions to make, but I believe the sooner we get back open in the areas not seeing major cases the better we will be in the long run.

[igor67]

flu virus variations and cold virus variations are rather different things. A very crude analogy would be something like flu viruses are like canines. Different enough we could call them difference, but capable of some level of interbreeding across what we would otherwise call species boundaries. Cold viruses are often completely different biologically. So it is more akin to saying anything that lives in water is a fish. I wouldn't be overly pessimistic about treating viruses. Twenty or so years ago it was mostly true we didn't have viral treatments, but research spun out of fighting HIV helped pave the way for various antiviral therapies, none to my knowledge have shown a lot of promise against covid still complete pessimism isn't warranted.

[DuWayne Steurer]

From the Mod Staff:

 

We're tossing a lot of political figure mentions into the compost bin. While the Covid-19 issue can be inherently political and we have had a lot of excellent discussion on this topic regarding the social, economic, and other impacts this is and will have on ours and many people's lives, let's avoid the name dropping of political figures, as we always have done on the Brewerfan forums. We appreciate everyone's help with this. Thanks.

[Jimbo]

I know that I am probably in the minority but I really believe it is time to start opening things up and paring back the stay at home order in areas that are not seeing stress on the medical facilities.

 

I was looking at some numbers yesterday.

Wisconsin appears to have four hot zones:

#1: Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha - economic corridor

#2: Ozaukee/Washington/Waukesha - collar counties

#3: Dane/Columbia/Sauk - UW & BR towns

#4: Fond du Lac - Nile River trip

 

These ten counties have 2693 of the 3213 cases and 124 of the 137 deaths. I'd say continue the order in each region until daily new cases recede for that region + 14 days.

The remaining 62 counties could re-open non-essential business if they operate at 50% capacity and maintain social distancing. Re-open the parks. Don't know about re-opening the schools. Detractors will point out limited hospital facilities if the cases were to start increasing.

[igor67]

I don't have anywhere near the type of data I would want to make that type of call Jimbo. Enough maybe out there to develop a plausible idea of how that might unfold, but it would be very nuanced taking into account not just social distancing, but to what extent population density itself seems to impact the rate of spread. Those I think we have at this point some decent data for. What I'd be less confident in is how does the partial shut down affect travel between affected and less affected counties? Do people get more inclined to 'cheat' once some restrictions are lifted? I would still assume that tourism is a no go, since that is pretty much the fastest way to spread things from Chicago or to a lesser extent the Twin Cities. I'm not actually sure than for a lot of those counties, since farming and food production has still continued how much more gets opened up? Don't get me wrong if it can be plausibly safe something is better than nothing.

[MrTPlush]

Opening up parts of the state is a fair question, but I think part of the problem is the willingness of people to then travel to those areas. What exactly would be open? Restaurants and bars? Retail stores? There would definitely be a large quantity of people leaving Madison/Milwaukee to have some freedom to do those things again. I am not sure that is really a wise plan because of that.

[adambr2]

I agree with some of what you said, but it's easy for me to say those things when my decisions dont have a direct impact on people dying. The people making these decisions are making life and death decisions and I don't think I would be willing to put people's lives at risk if I made the wrong choice. The old better safe than sorry.

 

Yet I don't think there's nearly enough discussion about people suffering and dying BECAUSE there's a shutdown. Partly because it's very difficult if not impossible to quantify, but it is significant.

 

My father is 88, with several health issues making him a prime candidate to die should he ever get C-19. Scary stuff. Here's the thing though. All of is medical appointments have been cancelled for March, and now April. So what if he does have an issue with his heart, lungs, etc. that's not being identified and treated? That will kill him too. Now, take that example and multiply it by hundreds of thousands of people in a similar situation. Death is the result, we'll never know how many.

 

Now, add domestic violence, child abuse (where schools used to be essentially a first responder,) suicide, depression, substance abuse, etc. The economic impact is always discussed, which needs to be, but the unintended consequences of shutting down causes a whole lot of misery and death beyond economic.

 

I don't think people realize how much the stuff you described is real and how much shutting down everything affects so many other things. People think that those who want to get things going again are just valuing the economy over lives -- it's absolutely so much more than that.

 

My dad is not in the same situation as yours, but he is an alcoholic in his 60s who has been in recovery since 2016. Regularly attending AA meetings is so critical to his continued sobriety. It was a regular part of his routine, week after week, and now I definitely worry about him without it. Staying sober for him isn't just important, it's potentially the difference between life and a spiraling road to death.

 

Now he is just one person, imagine how many are affected by this right now. And AA is just one little blip on the radar of everything that has been shut down.

 

So no, it isn't just as simple as stay home, save lives, worry about the economy later. There's so many other potential consequences.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I agree with some of what you said, but it's easy for me to say those things when my decisions dont have a direct impact on people dying. The people making these decisions are making life and death decisions and I don't think I would be willing to put people's lives at risk if I made the wrong choice. The old better safe than sorry.

 

Yet I don't think there's nearly enough discussion about people suffering and dying BECAUSE there's a shutdown. Partly because it's very difficult if not impossible to quantify, but it is significant.

 

My father is 88, with several health issues making him a prime candidate to die should he ever get C-19. Scary stuff. Here's the thing though. All of is medical appointments have been cancelled for March, and now April. So what if he does have an issue with his heart, lungs, etc. that's not being identified and treated? That will kill him too. Now, take that example and multiply it by hundreds of thousands of people in a similar situation. Death is the result, we'll never know how many.

 

Now, add domestic violence, child abuse (where schools used to be essentially a first responder,) suicide, depression, substance abuse, etc. The economic impact is always discussed, which needs to be, but the unintended consequences of shutting down causes a whole lot of misery and death beyond economic.

 

I don't think people realize how much the stuff you described is real and how much shutting down everything affects so many other things. People think that those who want to get things going again are just valuing the economy over lives -- it's absolutely so much more than that.

 

My dad is not in the same situation as yours, but he is an alcoholic in his 60s who has been in recovery since 2016. Regularly attending AA meetings is so critical to his continued sobriety. It was a regular part of his routine, week after week, and now I definitely worry about him without it. Staying sober for him isn't just important, it's potentially the difference between life and a spiraling road to death.

 

Now he is just one person, imagine how many are affected by this right now. And AA is just one little blip on the radar of everything that has been shut down.

 

So no, it isn't just as simple as stay home, save lives, worry about the economy later. There's so many other potential consequences.

 

 

I think that people are aware of those things, and everything has to be weighed. No matter how much you cut it, it sucks. I have had 1 neurology appointment cancelled, and another one moved to a phone appointment. The cancelled appointment was a pre-surgery appointment, so that was actually a (reasonably) important appointment. Not rescheduled, just cancelled. I'm not saying I can empathize with your dad's situation, but there's a lot of people dealing with uncertainty and whatnot right now. What am I going to do when this is over? We don't know. The only thing we as citizens/people can do is cope the best we can with the hand we've been given, I guess.

[PeaveyFury]

Now he is just one person, imagine how many are affected by this right now. And AA is just one little blip on the radar of everything that has been shut down.

 

So many of these types of things have been able to adapt to online meetings. Is there an AA chapter that has successfully done so?

[adambr2]

Now he is just one person, imagine how many are affected by this right now. And AA is just one little blip on the radar of everything that has been shut down.

 

So many of these types of things have been able to adapt to online meetings. Is there an AA chapter that has successfully done so?

 

I am not sure to tell you the truth. I will have to ask him. I just know they haven't been able to meet in their regular group in person.

[PeaveyFury]

Now he is just one person, imagine how many are affected by this right now. And AA is just one little blip on the radar of everything that has been shut down.

 

So many of these types of things have been able to adapt to online meetings. Is there an AA chapter that has successfully done so?

 

I am not sure to tell you the truth. I will have to ask him. I just know they haven't been able to meet in their regular group in person.

 

Understood. I'm hopeful a chapter will have a way to provide the support needed in a resourceful way during this time.

[Baldkin]

I know that I am probably in the minority but I really believe it is time to start opening things up and paring back the stay at home order in areas that are not seeing stress on the medical facilities.

 

I was looking at some numbers yesterday.

Wisconsin appears to have four hot zones:

#1: Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha - economic corridor

#2: Ozaukee/Washington/Waukesha - collar counties

#3: Dane/Columbia/Sauk - UW & BR towns

#4: Fond du Lac - Nile River trip

 

These ten counties have 2693 of the 3213 cases and 124 of the 137 deaths. I'd say continue the order in each region until daily new cases recede for that region + 14 days.

The remaining 62 counties could re-open non-essential business if they operate at 50% capacity and maintain social distancing. Re-open the parks. Don't know about re-opening the schools. Detractors will point out limited hospital facilities if the cases were to start increasing.

 

I mean, is that surprising?

Milwaukee county has the same population as the lowest populated 40 counties of the state combined.

 

The only population dense area that hasn't been hit yet (apparently) is the Outagamie/Brown county area - Green Bay/Appleton/Oshkosh.

 

These smaller population areas haven't been hit because they are already population distanced. Adding actual social distancing on top of it is saving peoples lives there.

[homer]

I could see a scenario where they open things up regionally. I doubt everyone from Milwaukee will travel up to Rhinelander because the bars and restaurants are open there. Maybe people with second homes.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think that people are aware of those things, and everything has to be weighed.

 

Yes and no. In 43 pages here it's barely brought up at all. Same with media coverage. 95% of the debate has boiled down to saving lives vs harm to the economy. Even at a national level, you don't hear the CDC, Fauci, etc. hardly ever bring up the risk to people by being shut down for this long. Have you ever seen a projection on number of deaths- short term and longer term due to the shutdown?

 

So I cancelled two more appointments with specialist for my father this morning. I have a sister who should be in the hospital right now for chemo treatment. Her oncologist flat out told her she should be hospitalized. But the beds are being reserved for corona virus patients, which may or may not ever come. So she goes back and forth between home and the hospital almost every day. Talk about exposure.

 

But this isn't about me. Just examples, how in one family there are two cases of people in a more precarious position due to the lock down. Imagine how many hundreds of thousands of people there must be in similar situations. It's not a stretch to believe people have and will die as a result of stay at home.

 

So yea, I agree people are aware, but it needs to be a major consideration in all these decisions and not an afterthought.

[MrTPlush]

I could see a scenario where they open things up regionally. I doubt everyone from Milwaukee will travel up to Rhinelander because the bars and restaurants are open there. Maybe people with second homes.

 

They don't have to go that far. Dodge County has 19 cases, Jefferson 23, Green 9, Columbia 24, and all the counties that border the Green Bay/Appleton/Fond du Lac areas have very little cases. Really no reason those places can't be apart of an "opening up". Unless of course you decide to create a buffer around those major areas...but I am not sure how well that will go over.

 

I do wonder how much benefit opening up things like that will even do without the confidence this has mostly passed over and better treatment is available. Is it really worth the risk if everyone doesn't want to leave there house regardless?

[PeaveyFury]

I have a sister who should be in the hospital right now for chemo treatment. Her oncologist flat out told her she should be hospitalized.

 

They're not considering chemo treatment a necessary procedure? If not, I question whether that hospital is correctly interpreting the guidelines for cancelling 'elective procedures'. And aren't the ICU/emergency room beds reserved for COVID patients right now, rather than ALL beds? Or is it a small-town hospital with limited resources?

[brwrsfan]

Let's say they do open up bars, restaurants, etc. in some remote places or even some places around Milwaukee with rules in place - say only 50% capacity, no lines, no cash, etc. Would you go? What if the waitress has it? What if the people before you had it? Are they going to sanitize EVERYTHING (seats, ketchup bottles, salt, etc.) between every guest?

 

I'm not sure I would take that risk right now. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but the fear of getting it is going to keep some people (certainly not all) away from those places even after they reopen IMO.

[PeaveyFury]

Let's say they do open up bars, restaurants, etc. in some remote places or even some places around Milwaukee with rules in place - say only 50% capacity, no lines, no cash, etc. Would you go?

 

Considering the situation in Milwaukee, I highly doubt anything is open in Milwaukee before Memorial Day. You're far more likely to see stuff in, say, Rhinelander open under a 50% capacity order.

[owbc]

Let's say they do open up bars, restaurants, etc. in some remote places or even some places around Milwaukee with rules in place - say only 50% capacity, no lines, no cash, etc. Would you go? What if the waitress has it? What if the people before you had it? Are they going to sanitize EVERYTHING (seats, ketchup bottles, salt, etc.) between every guest?

 

I'm not sure I would take that risk right now. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but the fear of getting it is going to keep some people (certainly not all) away from those places even after they reopen IMO.

 

Absolutely would not go to any restaurant or public gathering and will not until I am vaccinated or they have widespread testing in place confirming that the virus is essentially gone. Why risk it? All of our favorite restaurants have home delivery figured out now and it has been great.

 

The first thing we are phasing back in is in-person contact with friends. Already had some over to the backyard in a somewhat social distancing-safe manner (yes, not recommended, but whatever, we've all been at home for a month). I assume it will go back to the < 10 people rule at some point in May and we will take advantage. Also hoping that the trailheads open up by late spring. Next vacation booked is a family gathering at an AirBNB rental in late June which I fully expect will go on, although we might be replacing some family that were going to fly in with local friends.

[Jimbo]

I mean, is that surprising?

Milwaukee county has the same population as the lowest populated 40 counties of the state combined.

 

The only population dense area that hasn't been hit yet (apparently) is the Outagamie/Brown county area - Green Bay/Appleton/Oshkosh.

 

These smaller population areas haven't been hit because they are already population distanced. Adding actual social distancing on top of it is saving peoples lives there.

 

I forgot to premise that I did not evaluate total cases. Instead, cases per 100K. So yes, these counties are top ten in cases per whatever (>40 per 100K residents). The state median is 17. New York State is 965.

Also, in the 62 safest counites continue stay-at-home for the over-65.

[LouisEly]

Absolutely would not go to any restaurant or public gathering and will not until I am vaccinated or they have widespread testing in place confirming that the virus is essentially gone. Why risk it? All of our favorite restaurants have home delivery figured out now and it has been great.

The key word in your last sentence is "our".

 

Not everyone is an "our", and for us, these type of venues are valuable means for meeting people. Apps are nice, but they have plenty of drawbacks (old photos, catfishing, shopping type of behavior, etc.), and you're not going to go to someone's house without having met them in a public place at least a couple of times. Weather only allows for so many opportunities to meet at an outdoor venue and only during certain times of the year.

 

Other than brief transactional interactions with someone when picking up take-out, I haven't had face-to-face interaction with anyone in four weeks. I also have several friends who are bartenders, and they're unemployed.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have a sister who should be in the hospital right now for chemo treatment. Her oncologist flat out told her she should be hospitalized.

 

They're not considering chemo treatment a necessary procedure? If not, I question whether that hospital is correctly interpreting the guidelines for cancelling 'elective procedures'. And aren't the ICU/emergency room beds reserved for COVID patients right now, rather than ALL beds? Or is it a small-town hospital with limited resources?

 

Yes, it is necessary. It is NOT necessary, apparently, for her to be hospitalized. She was during her other rounds, but not this time.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I have a sister who should be in the hospital right now for chemo treatment. Her oncologist flat out told her she should be hospitalized.

 

They're not considering chemo treatment a necessary procedure? If not, I question whether that hospital is correctly interpreting the guidelines for cancelling 'elective procedures'. And aren't the ICU/emergency room beds reserved for COVID patients right now, rather than ALL beds? Or is it a small-town hospital with limited resources?

 

Yes, it is necessary. It is NOT necessary, apparently, for her to be hospitalized. She was during her other rounds, but not this time.

 

I'm getting a heart cath Thursday and unless they blow out an artery they are sending me home after the procedure. Even if they put in a stent. This is the world we live in